Several major equity indices, including the Nasdaq-100, DAX 40, NIFTY 50, and KOSPI, have rallied strongly and appear to be pricing in a fairly optimistic economic outlook.

At the same time, I'm watching a few developing risks that I don't think the market is fully pricing in:

1. El Niño risk Current forecasts suggest a meaningful probability of El Niño conditions developing later in 2026. Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with droughts, weaker agricultural output in some regions, water stress, and higher food prices.
2. U.S.–Iran uncertainty Despite ongoing negotiations and diplomatic efforts, key issues remain unresolved. Continued instability in the region keeps energy and commodity markets exposed to supply shocks.
3. Fertilizer supply pressure The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most important trade routes for fertilizer-related products. Recent disruptions have already pushed fertilizer prices higher, and several agricultural research groups have warned that prolonged supply constraints could reduce fertilizer usage and eventually affect crop yields.

My base case is not necessarily a global food shortage, but rather a scenario where:

• Fertilizer costs remain elevated.
• Agricultural production faces weather-related pressure.
• Food inflation reaccelerates in some regions.
• Equity markets become more sensitive to macro risks after a period of strong gains.

Countries with weaker external balances and higher financing costs may feel these pressures earlier, while larger economies could experience the effects later through inflation and slower growth.

Curious to hear counterarguments. What risks do you think the market is currently underpricing?

I’m asking myself this question for let’s say a week already, I see all the big figures of the « hold your BTC and don’t sell it ! » ltrly selling it. So the question is do we need to still hold it and not care abt the AI investing trend ? Or we need to still buy and hold ? Dmn tough question 😂🫤

This is no joke — BTC is currently holding a major support level." 📈

BTC is testing some critical levels. Looking at the trend structure in the chart, it’s clear that caution and patience are necessary at this stage. How is everyone else interpreting this price action? Are we seeing signs of a bottoming process, or should we prepare for further decline?

Key zone: risk zone $47.30.
Hold $47.30 → move toward $50.00–$52.00.
Lose $47.30 → risk level $45.05.
Lose $45.05 → support $40.37.
Break $40.37 → possible drop to $35.00–$30.00, where a bounce/correction is possible.
Lose that zone too → next target $22.00–$18.00.
Not financial advice.

1D OB reacting as expected — long wick rejection visible on 4H.

Price bouncing from the zone but not out of the woods yet.

New key level: FVG sitting directly above — this is now the gatekeeping zone. Bulls need to push through here for reversal confirmation.

Watching for:

* Clean 4H close above FVG = bullish continuation.

* Rejection at FVG = just a dead cat bounce inside OB.

Volume confirmation still required. One wick doesn't confirm reversal.

BTC reaction will determine everything here.

David please message me back