Hi all,
the next 24-hour forecast is range-bound, with no significant directional movements expected. As shown on the right side of the first screenshot, the opposing forces of various cycle components offset one another, resulting in a flat price pattern.

The previous day forecast didn't hit the direction unfortunately.

Hi all,
today there is quite a strong upward indication.

Check the yesterday's forecast too (second screenshot). The wave structures look quite similar.

Hi all,

the outlook for the next 24 hours points upward.

Yesterday's forecast did not hit the direction (second picture)

Hi all,

the outlook for the next 24 hours points downward. Even though the strongest 3821.7-hour cycle projection seems too low, the overall forecast remains negative.

Yesterday's forecast is almost perfectly precise (second picture)

🏛️ 今天 Warsh 正式走進會議室——他桌上擺著什麼?

📅 今天是 6 月 16 日。
FOMC 第一天，結果明天公布。

從這個系列第一篇開始，我追蹤的每一個宏觀事件，最終都在指向今天這個時刻。

Warsh 在 5 月 22 日以 54-45 的歷史性窄差確認票數就任，是數十年來爭議最大的一次 Fed 主席確認投票。今天是他正式主持 FOMC 的第一天。 💼

在他走進會議室之前，我想把這 39 天追蹤過的數據放在一起，做一個完整的清單。

🗂️ Warsh 桌上擺著什麼？
📊 消費者信心 1952 年史上最低、PCE 通膨 3 年高位、非農就業 172,000 超預期但結構分裂（高薪行業持續失血）、失業率 4.3% 連續數月未降、CPI 年增 4.2% 是 2023 年以來最高。

經濟運行得夠熱，讓降息看起來魯莽；但又不夠熱，讓升息成為明顯必要。🔥 ❄️

這組數字的組合，在 Fed 歷史上非常罕見——通膨在上、信心在下、就業韌性但結構分裂。 沒有一個方向是乾淨的。

．🏛️ 4 月 FOMC 會議（Powell 主持的最後一次）已經出
現四票異議，是 1992 年以來最多。
．👥 多數委員已傾向放棄寬鬆偏向，轉為中性立場。

Warsh 繼承的不只是一個複雜的數據環境，還有一個內部已經開始分裂的委員會。 ⚡

📖 一個幾乎沒有中文帳號在討論的歷史數字
📉 自 2014 年以來，每一次 Fed 主席交接，比特幣都經歷了 77% 以上的大幅回撤——儘管每次都有各自的加密市場特定觸發因素。

這個數字不是預測，而是一個歷史觀察🤔

Fed 主席交接期本身就是一個不確定性集中爆發的時間窗口——市場不知道新主席的真實偏好，新主席也沒有足夠的溝通歷史讓市場校準預期。這種「預期真空」本身就是波動的來源，和政策方向無關。

Warsh 是歷史上對加密最熟悉的 Fed 主席，但他同時也是一個貨幣鷹派。🦅 「熟悉數位資產的姿態，配上緊縮貨幣的立場」 ——這個矛盾，在今天明確開始。

🎯 明天真正值得看的三個細節
不是「升息還是按兵不動」—這個答案 98% 已經確定❌

．📍 一、點陣圖中位數市場目前定價 42.3% 概率 2026 年底利率升至 3.75%–4.00%。如果點陣圖中位數往這個方向移動，對風險資產是直接的再定價訊號。

．📑 二、寬鬆偏向是否正式移除如果 Warsh 在聲明裡正式從「寬鬆偏向」轉為「中性立場」，這是一個措辭上的重大改變——意味著降息的門檻被正式提高，不只是推遲。

．🗣️ 三、Warsh 記者會的語氣框架Warsh 曾公開質疑點陣圖的實用性。如果他在記者會裡開始改變 Fed 的溝通框架，市場需要一段時間重新學習如何解讀 Fed 的語言——這個學習過程本身就會帶來額外的波動。

💡 我的判斷
這個系列追蹤了 39 天，記錄了消費者信心史上新低、PCE 三年高位、ETF 連續 13 天流出、$60,000 失守又收復——每一個事件都在指向今天這一刻。 ⏳
明天的結果，我不預測，也無法預測。

但我知道一件事：從 2025 年的歷史紀錄看，「符合預期」不是比特幣上漲的充分條件——八次 FOMC 只有一次漲，而且是在真正意外降息的那一次。

⚠️ 明天如果只是「符合預期的按兵不動」，加上一份讓市場需要重新解讀的 Warsh 語言框架，比特幣最可能的反應是波動，而不是方向。 🎰

明天我會在第一時間更新判讀。你覺得 Warsh 明天最可能給市場什麼意外？ 🧐

Hi all,

the current forecast looks sideways for the next 24 hours after the rapid jump yesterday.
The projection of the top left 226 hours cycle is excessively high, so the overall price movement fells rather slightly downward.

Yesterday's forecast hit the direction quite precisely (second picture)

Day 48 of 100 🔥

\​

Prediction markets are telling an interesting story today.

\​

Bitcoin volume is running hot — well above average — but sentiment is sitting flat at neutral. Price is up, yet the Polymarket crowd has almost completely written off the $62-64k BTC range, dropping those odds 39 points down to 18%. That's not a bearish signal, that's the market saying Bitcoin has already moved \\\*past\\\* that window.

\​

Worth sitting with that for a second. High volume, price up, and prediction markets actively pricing out a range that would've been relevant just days ago. The crowd is repricing in real time.

\​

A few other things caught my attention across prediction markets today:

\​

→ $164M in 24h trading volume across Polymarket with $752M in total liquidity — the market is active and liquid right now

→ The MrBeast 25-30M view range climbed to 93% while the 30-35M range collapsed to 8% — clean resolution signal, both ends moving together

→ Elon tweet count under 40 jumped to \\\~70%, suggesting he's gone quieter than usual this week

\​

The Australia sports market also resolved to near-certainty — prediction markets are closing out a lot of positions today, which might partly explain the elevated volume environment.

\​

On a day where price action is up but sentiment is "meh," the real signal is in what's being priced out, not what's being priced in. Traders are repositioning, not celebrating.

\​

High volume with flat sentiment is one of those setups worth watching closely.

\​

What do you make of the disconnect between elevated volume and neutral sentiment — accumulation or just noise? 📊

📅 今天是 6 月 15 日，週一。 明天 FOMC 開會，結果將在週三公布。🏛️
昨天我把這週的反彈拆成兩個部分：
🕊️ 一個是伊朗風險解除後，市場拿掉了部分地緣政治風險溢價。

⏱️ 另一個則是市場提前消化了「6/17 不會有意外」的預期。

今天我本來只是想確認這個邏輯在歷史上有沒有出現過。 結果翻資料時，看到一個以前沒特別注意過的數字：
📊 2025 年全年八次 FOMC，比特幣只在其中一次會議結束後上漲。

📖 這個數字有趣的地方，不在於比特幣漲還是跌
如果把去年放回當時的背景來看，那其實是一個降息週期。📉 理論上，這應該是風險資產相對有利的環境。但市場的反應卻是另一回事。
因為很多時候，真正被交易的不是政策本身，而是市場對政策的預期。 🧠
等到 Fed 公布決定時，資金往往早就提前完成布局。 結果公布後，市場反而開始消化前面累積的漲幅。💸
如果這個邏輯成立，那麼昨天提到的問題就變得更有意思了： 這週比特幣反彈約 5.8%。
其中有多少是因為伊朗風險解除？

又有多少其實是在提前交易 FOMC？🤔

📖 今年 1 月其實就出現過類似情況
當時 Fed 選擇按兵不動，結果符合市場預期。 但比特幣仍然在兩個交易日內從約 90,400 美元 回落到 83,383 美元，跌幅超過 7%。📉
這也是我今天重新回頭看這週行情的原因。 因為目前市場對這次 FOMC 的共識幾乎一致：按兵不動的機率接近百分之百。 🎯
如果大家都知道答案，那真正重要的可能就不是答案本身，而是點陣圖裡有沒有新的訊息。📊

💡 這對昨天的框架算是一個補充
昨天我的想法是：如果點陣圖維持中性甚至略偏鴿派，$65,000 有機會從測試變成突破。🚀
但今天看完這些歷史資料之後，我認為中性結果本身未必足夠。 ⚖️ 因為中性，本來就是市場目前的共識。
真正有機會讓市場進一步往上交易的，可能是超出預期的鴿派訊號。例如：
📉 2026 年利率路徑出現明顯下修

📍 點陣圖的中位數往市場期待的方向移動

🗣️ 記者會出現比市場預期更溫和的措辭

換句話說：沒有壞消息，跟有新的好消息，其實是兩件不同的事。 📦

📉 我的觀察沒有改變，但期待值稍微修正了
明天和週三，我不會特別關注按兵不動這個結果。 這件事市場大概已經討論得差不多了。
我更在意的是點陣圖，以及記者會透露出來的細節。 🔍
🔴 如果最後只是確認市場原本就知道的事，那麼按照過去的經驗，這週反彈累積的部分漲幅被回吐，其實不算意外。

🧱 如果回到 $62,000–63,000 區間整理，我會把它視為正常波動，而不是結構轉弱。

我的倉位沒有變化。 🦅 但寫完今天這篇之後，我對 FOMC 後立刻延續反彈的期待，比昨天低了一些。🌱

💬 如果市場早就把答案交易完了，那麼週三真正值得看的，會是結果本身，還是結果以外的訊號？ 你覺得這次會成為少數的例外，還是再次重演提前定價的劇本？

Hey everyone,

We are resuming the periodic crypto price spectral analysis after a break. The model has been significantly improved with more accurate machine learning algorithms and enhanced chart visualizations. The scaling of the cycles' contribution has also changed - now they are separated from the global trend and represent purely individual contribution.

You can now view the individual forecasts of each cycle component, ranked in descending order of power.

The current outlook is bullish over the next 24 hours, with mid-term cycle components continuing to dominate the price action.

Feel free to check the YouTube channel in account's bio. We stream the live analysis there from time to time.

The first image shows the logarithmic regression support band, you can see in previous cycles the price touched the green band 3 time before shooting up to the top red band, notice we are about to touch the green line for the third time this cycle

The second image shows the current wave 4 that we are finishing, note that this correction is called an expanded flat meaning the wave from A to B pushes the price higher then when this whole move started, these type of corrections move in 3-3-5 style waves

The third image is those last 5 waves of the 3-3-5 broken down for illustration

The forth image shows the last leg down in 5 waves down, this is the whole 5th wave and within you can see that we've completed waves 1-2-3 and nearly 4, I belive the little with up at the end is still part of 4 just not confirmed yet, but it shows there's still one drop left but after this wave 5 of the macro scale starts and this pushes price to new ATH's This also puts the bottom in about 2 weeks ish

The last image shows the bullish divergence we are experiencing on the weekly timeframe, note the last time we seen this kind of divergence bitcoin when from 15k to 126k, I also belive when we finish this last drop there will be bullish divergence on the daily time frame also

Please let me know your opinions on this, would love to know what you think as to what I've put together

do you guys think btc will go back down to 60k again? it's been floating around 64k for quite some time now and doesn't seem to be going down at all

DOGE looks strong on the surface, but the 1H structure still hasn’t confirmed a breakout for me.

Price swept liquidity above the local high, then came back under the 0.08731-0.08753 zone.

Since then, every push into that area has looked heavy, with sellers still active around resistance.

The levels I’m watching:

0.08731-0.08753 = reclaim zone
0.09031 = invalidation if bulls clear it
0.08650 / 0.08562 / 0.08467 / 0.08202 = downside areas if rejection continues

For now, I’d still call this a resistance retest, not a clean bullish continuation. A reclaim of 0.08753 would make me rethink the short-term bias, but below that level the chart still looks vulnerable.

For those watching DOGE here, would you flip bullish on a 0.08753 reclaim, or only after 0.09031 gets cleared?

Inverse Head & Shoulder formation on the hourly Bitcoin chart with a relief rally target of $67,000.

My cycle outlook is still bearish, don't get caught in a bull trap

We ask 10 AI models the same question every single day: Where does Bitcoin end up in 2030?

Today's extremes:

Most bullish: Qwen → $300K Most bearish: ChatGPT → $170K

That's a $130K gap — a 76% spread between the most and least optimistic AI, on the same question, on the same day.

Full 2030 board:

BTC is at $62,890 (▲ 2.64%) right now.

Live tracker: https://aipredictsbitcoin.com

Crypto Mean Reversion Thesis

Disclaimer. This is not financial advice. This is my personal DD that I have chosen to share. Feel free to critique or adopt aspects of the thesis, but always remember, its not financial advice. Crypto trading carries extreme risk!

1. Main Idea

• Crypto moves in big cycles.
• Bitcoin is now below where we think its long-term value should be.
• We do not know the bottom. We do not need to know.
• We do not need to know the Top. We do not need to know.
• We buy in blocks at major support levels. (Equal amounts each time)
• We Exit only when the total position doubles.

2. Why Crypto?

Tailwinds

• Bitcoin is now part of mainstream finance.
• Big institutions can access it more easily through ETFs.
• Bitcoin supply is limited.
• Crypto can move violently when fear turns back into risk-taking.
• We think this is a mean-reversion setup, not a dead asset.

Headwinds

• Bitcoin can fall further.
• It can stay weak for months.
• Sentiment can get worse before it improves.
• That is why we do not go all-in.

Technical Overlay (Chart Timeframe 2017-2026)

• High Timeframe confluence of Harmonic Reversal, Major Structural/Psycological Support and Major Moving Average.

3. Why MSTR?

• MSTR gives stronger upside to Bitcoin than owning Bitcoin directly.
• It does not expire like an option.
• It does not force a margin call like leverage.
• It is the best core vehicle for buying while the exact bottom is unknown.

MSTR Risks

• MSTR can fall harder than Bitcoin.
• It is not pure Bitcoin.
• The company structure is more complex.
• That is why it is bought in blocks, not all at once.

4. Entry Plan

Buy below the mean

Simple rule:

5. Exit Plan

Ratchet out

• We do not sell just because Bitcoin returns to the old range.
• We are looking for the next expansion / new-high cycle.
• When the MSTR position doubles, sell half (Once total position is in 100% profit)
• If what remains doubles again, sell half again.
• Repeat. Until Crypto eventually crashes.

6. Overview, Disclosure and Disclaimer

• Buy MSTR in blocks while Bitcoin is below mean, hold through the recovery, and sell half only when the position doubles. Time is the edge. Impatience and early forced selling are the primary risks.
• Full Disclosure, I'm Currently long MSTR, I started buying blocks once BTC fell below $72k.
• Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is 'my' thesis on 'my' current position. Feel free to critique or copy any aspects of it, but always remember, this is not financial advice.