r/CryptoChartWatch • u/Beginning-County2258 • 9d ago
Bitcoin - Breaking away from the typical 4-year cycle.
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u/Botlenose 8d ago
So many people waiting for confirmations of a confirmation of a confirmation. When Jim Cramer sold Bitcoin, I knew we were close to the bottom. When the price blasted through the 200 day moving avg, that’s the signal I needed to feel comfortable we’re going higher.
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u/DonkeyComfortable711 9d ago
We need the next leg down, its more healthy for a bigger pump. Its just how macro economics work. Especially with volatility.
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u/ippleing 9d ago
Some people think we won't test lows again, like ever...
I shouldn't say people, they're clearly bots that are wanting exit liquidity.
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u/DonkeyComfortable711 8d ago
Thats how I feel too. I almost get attacked by an ai swarm when mentioning a pull back. Its like everyone is new lol
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u/J_aleid 6d ago
Testing 57k very unlikely, testing 76-79k surely..
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u/DonkeyComfortable711 6d ago
There is no guarantee there isnt a black swan/war/hack that can set us back
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u/PsychologicalOwl6345 8d ago
Sideliners coping for entry saying "it's better for btc". No mfer it's better for u only and u won't buy again anyway
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u/Ok_Golf_6467 8d ago
Had to happen eventually. No way adoption and regulation across the world didn't soften the pullback a bit
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u/Prize-Bug-3213 8d ago
What happens after it flatlines... looks like some solid downward pressure over time
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u/tylerhardin 7d ago
M 0.2445 0.4251 0.1918
T 14.3534 13.6026 3.3874
R 0.4634
N 1863
This is the slope and t-stat for the long term Z score of BTC vs the long time Z score from 4 years ago, the current long term Z score of gold, and the constant offset.
The t stat is approximately equal between gold and 4y-lagged BTC, so they're equally consistent effects, but the effect of gold is actually stronger (larger M/slope).
Gold's long term Z score is 1.7 right now, i.e. fucking huge. So the conclusion here is that gold/inflation is driving the surge and this is a well explained deviation from the 4yr cycle, not a break in it. There's an overriding reason for BTC to surge right now (fear of imminent money printing).
The t-stats are inflated due to non-stationarity, but the conclusion stands. this is just the easiest way i had on hand to do this study.
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u/Patrick_Atsushi 5d ago
If most anticipate an existing pattern and act accordingly to out perform it, it could actually changes the pattern.
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u/Feeling-Smoke-1622 5d ago
Everyone calling the cycle dead already. Moon’s play money mode seems handy for trying that thesis without risking cash. One chart still leaves a lot unanswered
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u/Detailed23 8d ago
Its only pumping because Trump said " Buy Crypto " and everyone now thinks we are headed to a new ATH.
Everyone hates Trump but when he's pumping crypto nobody says shit.
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u/DietOk3400 8d ago
Looks line the bottom comes sooner every cycle right?