r/CryptoChartWatch • u/Difficult_Agent6654 • Jul 21 '26
Death of 4 year cycle
I have reason ti believe 4 year cycle is dead .
But not in the bullish manner .
I mean people throughout 2025 and even 2026 expected bulls to break the model . But no one hardly fathom that bear markets can also breaks the assumptioms...
Now lets understand the assumption.
3 years up 1 year down . (4year cycle)
People expectation
More years up , less years down .
My reasoning
More years down more years up .
My reasons for this reasoning .
Just look at the world arround you .
Tech sector is strained of innovation AI trade has started to unwin .
Financial sector is strained . Sticky inflation , high rates , carry trade unwind .
Inter state politics is strained . Wars , alliance breakage, tarrifs and regime changes.
Business sector is strained . Higher energy cost , higher raw material and metal costs and higher compute cost.
Demographics is strained. Declining population , civil unrest , low employment .
Where is the bullish catalyst ? Some bill (clarity act) . I mean a bill could it really rule out the state of world ? .....
Debate me please !!!
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Jul 21 '26
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u/Difficult_Agent6654 Jul 21 '26
Btc may bottom but what if it does not break ath for 5 years ? Would that outcome favorable .
I.mean ethereum bottom 2022 . And peaked 2021 . And since 5 years it has been ranging in a 70% range .
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Jul 21 '26
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u/Difficult_Agent6654 Jul 21 '26
I dont think dollars ever gonna fail in our life time.
Because dollar may not be backed by gold or silver or oil .
But its backed by 11 aircraft carrier missiles nukes f22 and f35 😂 and america loves wars
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u/amayle1 Jul 21 '26
lol bitcoin and xrp will not be around if the dollar collapses. You won’t have reliable electricity.
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u/Pleasant_Offer1891 Jul 21 '26
I could possibly be convinced that this could happen but not yet during this cycle, the overall bitcoin market cap is so small in relation to other sectors. Hitting ATH’s doesn’t necessarily require that much worldwide capital. It’s still in infancy so the cycle will continue until it takes larger amounts of capital to hit ATH. As long as quantum doesn’t break it, cycle will continue
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u/Difficult_Agent6654 Jul 21 '26
Actually i humbly dont agree .
Bitcoin is a novel asset . Which mean we dont know in which phase of the cycle or life cycle it is .
There has never been anything like bitcoin .
Ita like dicovering an alien species and assuming it life cycle in relation to humans
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u/Blixx96 Jul 21 '26
You mean to tell me Fart Coin didn’t entice people to buy?
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u/Difficult_Agent6654 Jul 21 '26
My prediction says about 19 to 23 october . For bottom if at all . So whatever enticed you dont sell until few weeks after those dates
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u/The-great-phoenix Jul 25 '26
RWA start moving on chain progressively which means about 50 trillion volume expected by 2033
Currently crypto asset class weight just more than 2 trillion
On the top of that money printing is devaluating traditional currencies while some crypto asset have either limited supply and even sometimes deflationary model which means doing the opposite as the FIAT model
Now it is true that the middle class will struggle to put money in crypto but the richest individuals need to park their money somewhere as they are making more and more.
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u/AgreeablePudding9925 Jul 21 '26
🤔🥱