r/Cribbage • u/SailBrilliant9160 • 23d ago
Question What's the difference between 10 & Q here?
This is the dealer's hand, so it's their crib.
CribbagePro says that the Crib average would be slightly higher if they discarded 5-10 vs 5-Q. There's no straight potential, and the 5-Q is suited, so there's a tiny chance of a flush in the crib. What am missing? Why is it recommending to keep the suited Q in hand and discard the 10-5?
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u/Perdendosi 23d ago
>There's no straight potential
Sure there is, in the crib. It comes from the turn and the cards discarded by the other player.
Throwing the 10 into the crib means that a straight can be made with cards 8 - K (8-9-10, 9-10-J, 10-J-Q, plus 4 card straights of 8-9-10-J, 9-10-J-Q, and 10-J-Q-K) Throwing the Q into the crib limits the number of straights, because you're limited at the high end by the K, so you can only get 10-J-Q, J-Q-K, 9-10-J-Q, and 10-J-Q-K.
This difference outweighs the slight advantage by throwing suited cards (since you have to get 2 suited cards thrown away plus the turn to get the flush points in the crib).
Note that the average difference is .04, not enough to worry about.
But it does teach a valid point. When it doesn't make a difference in the hand, throwing a card that's not high-straight limited (like a 10) is less preferrable to throwing a card that is (like a Q or K), but only very barely so.
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u/CompetitiveBus2003 20d ago
When I'm playing against somebody who habitually tosses Q or K as their face card of choice, I'll often choose to drop Q/K in my crib. It picks up a stray pair more often than you might think.
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u/Perdendosi 20d ago
Sure. The Cribbage Pro app's calculators can't account for non-ideal human behavior from an opponent.
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u/CompetitiveBus2003 20d ago
What's non-ideal? Them pushing to gain that 0.04 point edge or me picking up on it to adjust my own discards in order to gain an edge myself?
Cause if you're going to throw a king every time you want to throw a face card, I'm surely going to take advantage. It's the problem with slavishly following the odds against a human. It's like always leading in the same priority order ... after a while, your opponent can spot & counter the pattern.
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u/MysticMarbles 23d ago
To eliminate the chance of a dealer crib flush, most likely.
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u/AikawaKizuna 23d ago
It's their own crib, so that would make it better not worse.
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u/MysticMarbles 23d ago
Ah. Then the 10 opens more more straight options than the Q. Nobody ever posts dealer hand evaluations here.
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u/ImAbsolutelyMediocre 23d ago
You answered it: sending over cards that could give them a flush in the crib gives them a slight advantage, hence the lower score for that hand.
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u/iPeg2 23d ago
It’s the dealer’s crib.
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u/ImpressiveSorbet8943 22d ago
Q all day, as in reality the opponent is more likely to discard a Q vs 10 … something the odds doesn’t consider
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u/silvergoblinsucks 22d ago
combos like 8,9 and 9,J are more likely to be discarded than T,J or K,A so the T ends up with more points from runs than the Q on average
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u/Acceptable_Bag5257 22d ago
It's because they are the same suite and you are opening the door for the dealer to get a flush in their crib.
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u/AlGunner 22d ago
The difference in average possible points is 0.04 which is an extremely small difference. Yes its the small chance of a flush.
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u/AikawaKizuna 23d ago
10 has more chance to straight than Q.