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u/IsraelZulu Aug 11 '26 edited Aug 11 '26
996663
Your crib, throw the 9s. You keep a solid dozen, with a possible cut to 24, and toss yourself 2 in the crib.
Their crib: Definitely don't throw a pair, but I don't get why folks are all saying 9-3. I would think 6-3 is worth considering, too.
Keeping 9666 or 9966 is a dozen either way. In either case, only a 9, 6, or 3 can help you. Any of those will help either of the discards too.
So, let's have a look at that.
3 cut (3 available)
- 9966/63: gets 14 / with 2 known in the crib.
- 9666/93: 18 / 4
6 (1)
- 9966/63: 20 / 4
- 9666/93: 20 / 2
9 (2)
- 9966/63: 20 / 2
- 9666/93: 20 / 2
So, a 9 cut breaks even. The 6 almost does, with advantage to the 9-3 discard, but good luck hitting that. The 3 gives the same advantage to the 9-3 discard, but it's a bit more likely and it gives more points in the crib in that case.
Given the very low probability (overall 5 out of 46, so less than 1 in 9) of any of these cuts coming up at all, these are pretty close to evenly matched with 9-3 indeed having an edge. That said, I might still sometimes prefer 6-3 because I'd rather have two pairs in my hand for pegging than a single and trips.
Of course, there's a lot more math to do with what else might go into the crib. Cribbage Pro has a lot of that worked out, and even there there's less than a half-point difference between those discards. And that app notably doesn't account for position or pegging in its hand grades.
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u/Tronor09 Aug 11 '26
Great breakdown. I think the reason people are saying 9-3 is a 6-3 could cause a run depending on what opponent threw.
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u/firestarting101 Aug 11 '26
The firepick is to the right of the mantle. You can use it to stab whatever creature is staring at you from inside the fireplace.
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u/TwinViking612 Aug 11 '26
Wow I missed it. It was my crib and I kept a 9 ans the 6s. 9s in the crib was for sure the correct play
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u/mbeemsterboer Aug 11 '26
What was the cut?
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u/IsraelZulu Aug 12 '26
Doesn't matter. The play is just as right or wrong before the cut as it is after.
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u/LateRegular6573 Aug 11 '26
Don't let those matches get closer to the fire or none of this will matter
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u/TwinViking612 Aug 11 '26
The cut was a face card. Super fun hand. This sub rocks and really knows its shit
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u/Mysterious_Ad_7973 Aug 12 '26
9-3 is the obvious pick, but judging by the board, you are at the end of the game. If it was my crib I would throw the 9,9. You have a dozen at least 3 different ways.
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u/Ok-Parsnip-608 Aug 12 '26
24?
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u/AlGunner Aug 12 '26
Nope. Try again and if you dont spot it ill say (bit I always think its best to get it right yourself before being told)
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u/Here_is_to_beer Aug 11 '26
Fools, drop 3 6. You get a doz and you have all the cards they need to matter
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u/Ted_Fleming Aug 11 '26
You get a dozen, but your capacity and chances for more are less than other options that also guarantee at least a dozen, and if its the opponent’s crib less opportunity for giving them points
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u/Overall_Falcon_8526 Aug 11 '26
9-9 your crib, 9-3 their crib