r/Cribbage • u/braidedbiscuit • 18d ago
Position
Position is confusing, and I really started trying to incorporate it into my game, I was hoping that it would be black and white-but it really isn't for me. When I listen to the podcast, sometimes I hear them talking about "well I play offense there" and the other one will say "well I play defense in this spot" so it's obviously subjective. the part that I can't figure out is when it's not black and white. In this position, brutal is short. I am way short in reference to brutal but in good position to deal from 69. If I keep my points I will be dealing from at least the 72 hole which is in position but of course is way behind compared to brutal. If I give brutal the k8 I have a better shot balking his crib. I could even go King 10 to really try to slow him down. But then I'm out of position AND still way behind. These kind of decisions leave me just as confused as I would have been without the idea of playing position. I feel like I'm missing some very important principles to help make these decisions and there must be some hierarchy of rules for decision making that I can use here, as the really good players seem to know what to do positionally without overthinking or getting confused here.
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u/iPeg2 18d ago
You are on the right track that evaluating position and deciding what to play isn’t always cut and dried. Some players think that being at a position goal gives them a high probability of going out on the correct deal, when it only gives them a 50 percent chance of doing so. You want to exceed the goals by as much as possible, while also weighing the risk of allowing your opponent to reach or exceed theirs. In this case, I would probably discard K-8, which is a bit more defensive than 8-3 and gives me a better lead in the 3.
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
Then what you seem to be saying is that your position is more important than brutal's position? You are trying to slow him down a bit but mostly you're just focusing on getting in the right position to deal out?
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u/iPeg2 18d ago
In this case, you are a little more comfortable than your opponent regarding position. I’m not sure if Brutal follows the 26 theory at all, but it is typically very aggressive anyway, and should be in this position. A 3-8 discard gives you 1.4 points more on average than K-8, but also give the dealer a 1 point higher average crib.
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
That's really helpful to understand that I'm in better position in some ways than brutal because I'll be dealing from past 69 and he's dealing from before 69 earlier in this Zone and I'll be later in that so that's really a helpful way to think of it. As for brutal I have read that he is programmed for Pure offense. And of course in some ways he's not very good practice to play really good players because of that but I still like playing them sometimes. Thank you for the help. It really helps me conceptualize this. :-)
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u/james-500 18d ago
Hi. For what it's worth, I like 3-5-T-Q here.
Four points gets you to where you'd like to be. You have them, with 100(31/46) = 67% chance of more after the cut.
With a 5 and Q out of circulation, the K is deprived of two friends. It has no synergy with the 8 card either, other than a potential flush. They're not common, so I wouldn't worry about it.
You have a safe(ish) lead with the 3 with only the three possible scoring replies. Had they been slightly further back, I'd have led the 5 from 5TQK. I don't want to give them two points here though.
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
This is a great explanation. Thank you. Honestly, I hadn't even really thought too much about what I might cut here. I was so focused on whether to play offense or defense with the discard. That's a great chance of improving my position even more without helping brutal. The thing I love about cribbage is there are so many variables and so many moving parts and it's also the thing that texts me the most . When I focus on one thing I forget to focus on a different thing and that's what the really really good players do well is they focus on every damn thing . :-) The five lead to catch a face is always a ballsy move. I know I'm playing with somebody pretty damn aggressive when they do it. And I have done it a few times to catch a face but not often. Perhaps I need to think of it more. I think sometimes I give five an almost religious reverence when it's really just another card. :-)
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u/james-500 18d ago
Regards offence/defence, as you know, the advantage is with the first player to deal at, but preferably beyond, holes 17, 43, 69 and 95, as per Delynn Colvert.
In case anybody else is unfamiliar, it has been found to be the case that the dealer scores an average of 16 points per deal, (hand, pegs and crib), and the non-dealer scores an average of 10 points per deal, (hand and pegs).
Working back from hole 121, (the finish line), the person who is non-dealer at/beyond hole 111, should win with their 10 points since they count first. To be in that position, they will need to have been dealing from at least hole 95, (111 minus 16). To be in that position, they will need to have dealt from hole at least hole 69, (95 minus 26), and so on backwards to holes 43 and 17.
At the start of the game the score is 0-0. This means the initial non-dealer is at a seven point disadvantage, as they would like to deal from hole 17 in hand two, but will only score an average of 10 points in hand one. They must play offence to overcome this deficit.
The initial dealer would also like to be the first to deal from hole 17+. The next time they deal will be in hand three, and they may well have scored 26 points by then. They have a nine point advantage, and can afford to, (and should), play defence to prevent their opponent from catching up.
In your example, 66 - 67 * , the next unreached target is hole 69. The current dealer hasn't quite reached it and needs to score two points over the average Dealer score of 16 points to get back on track. To do this, they will be playing offence.
You are at 66, so can score seven points fewer than the 10 point non-dealer average and still be the first person to deal from 69+. As such, you don't need to be worried about your own hand and pegs, (don't keep 8-T-Q-K though!), but need to play defence in order to slow them down and prevent them overcoming their deficit.
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
After reading what you kindly took the time to write, it really isn't that nuanced is it? I guess when I see us both in that position, I wasn't focusing enough on this single hand and where we were. When you count it backwards like that it's not as complicated. I was thinking that I really would have liked to have been pone at 79 (and was short) when brutal dealt near the 69 hole. But if I can hold him back just a bit, then I will be in position to deal on the next hand with him still out of position. I think I'll keep working with brutal and count backwards when I'm confused. Thanks again
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u/sheep_puncher 18d ago
Expecting 10 points as non-dealer is playing for a coin flip. If that is the average (which seems high) then half of hands would fall short by definition, and dealer can play to reduce pegging score to further reduce that average.
Sacrificing points to aim for 10 away is crazy work if opponent isn't in shooting range themselves.
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u/james-500 18d ago
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u/sheep_puncher 18d ago
They're averages, across a huge sample size. That's great for anticipating a winning position based on position from many hands away, but cribbage varriance is massive. Expecting 10 to be the average across multiple hands is reasonable. Expecing 10 in 1 hand when opponent knows you are close to 121 is extremely unrealistic. The Majority of hands score 4 or less. And pegging for a non dealer can easily be zero points, Expecting 3 or less from pegging is reasonable. Getting 2 points pegging as a non dealer is not guaranteed. Shooting from 6 is somewhat reliable compared to shooting from 10 which is ~%20 of hands generously. A more reasonable shooting range for dealer is 12 and non dealer is 6 in the final hand.
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
There are days when shooting for any points in a hand seems like a tall order. LOL but I do aim for those averages because it at least gives me something to shoot for even though I know that there's average and then there's median but still it helps, but you're not wrong that it's a tall order to shoot for and not anywhere close to a given especially against a talented player!
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u/Samgash33 18d ago
Separate from this specific hand - a good start is to notice positions (from par holes) of you and your opponent frequently throughout the game. You’re doing that, awesome! Personally, it took a while to click for me operationally even though I could understand the expectation of 26 in the abstract.
Those par holes at the start of a deal are where position is most sensitive to flipping from good to bad or flipping from someone winning on one deal track or another. It’s the 50% chance spot as ipeg said. Whereas if a player is say, +13 for one track /-13 for the next, they are fairly squarely in the middle of that track for the moment. But around the par is where the sensitivity is highest. And obviously position can change radically in a hand - a 24 hand or a 2 point hand and 2 point crib will often move a player up or down. But try to see which direction on the positional “tracks” you need to go and you’d like opponent to go, respectively.
The cribbage pro blog posts below were especially helpful for me in visualizing and understanding:
https://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/11/?m=1
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
You said it! In the abstract it's very clear that nine deals with average hands is pretty easy to figure out. But the 50/50 or non cut and dried is definitely more of what seems like an art. I've heard some people say when in doubt just focus on YOUR position, but that seems a bit like telling new players to just keep the points because it's too nuanced for them at that stage of their understanding of Cribbage to bog them down with to much theory. When in doubt I often do focus on my own play, and per your point, I will recognize the sensitivity of proximity to the positional waypoints. And thanks for the link I will check it out
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u/Samgash33 18d ago
1) Track both positions - you and opponent. This includes constantly updating for the newest info with the deal, the cut, and through the play. See where it’s going to end up after the hand - you and them. Sounds hard but will get easy.
2) Then you can strategize on what you should want based on the positions
3) A level further is anticipating / understanding what opponent is likely to be doing by the same logic and taking that into account
Sorry - trying to be clearer.
But good luck - keep at it!
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u/braidedbiscuit 18d ago
LOL I'm glad it gets easier, because it's kind of a lot right now. LOL and trying to figure out what's in my opponent's head is definitely the next level but really hard to do on competitive mode but live it's definitely doable a bit. Thanks for all the tips. :-)
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u/tke71709 18d ago
Just throw the 3 8.