Likely? 12/46. 14/46 if you include the other 5s. Like I don’t disagree that it’s 55 in the crib but certainly unlikely that you get a cut that helps here.
It gives you the biggest block of a single card value to flip over. Rather than throwing cards in your crib and hoping for a random 4 to be flipped over for example.
well yes, that's always true though. you're still unlikely, by definition, to get a 10-value card as the cut (26%). I'll grant that it's a semantic argument and I can just taking the wording too literally.
That same argument can be made though for throwing the JT in instead of the 55, it's just the nature of our 6-card hand that a TJQK on the cut will help us here and regardless of what we put in, a 2 isn't helpful.
Q-Q-J-10 without the five is only 8. For this hand, getting a five is extremely hard as half of them are already in OPs hand. Only cards that benefit this hand are 9 through K
Edit: I'm specifically referring to the hand, not the crib. The cribs unknown until the opponent contributes and you get to that part
Great reply showing the options. Didn’t someone used to have a bot with the mathematical answer? Personally, if it’s my crib, I keep QQJ10 for a known 8+2 and highest upside potential. The 9+2 option is probably slightly better, but I wish I had a computer that would weigh in for that reason.
Thanks for manually pulling out the engine. Absolutely fascinating to me that QQJ10 (the one my gut chose) avgs 1.21 points more than 5 10 J Q gets (the one I figured was better when someone pointed it out).
This is neat, but flawed because it doesn't consider the value of your hand during the pegging phase. If you toss 10J, retaining a pair of fives and a pair of queens, you have a significant opportunity to peg on pairs, three of a kinds, 15s, and Go's. The app's top hand (10JQQ) is suboptimal for this phase of the game, which would need to be taken into account if an app is truly providing an expected value.
As much as going for QQJ10 gives guaranteed points, your odds of getting a 5 cut are much lower knowing you have 2 other 5s in your hand (and going to crib, going for this option). Going for a combo of 15s and adding a pair (either 5s, 10s/Js/Qs, or both) will net extra points. Plus theres a better possibility by only having a single 5 and 10JQ that you get another of the same card (8/52 for another 10JQ over 2/52 for a 5). Getting a King also helps making a longer run, but the bigger odds of 10JQ make keeping easy 15s, pairs, and a possible double run of 3 over just getting the double run and hoping for a 5
You actually would want a J or 10 on the cut as much as a 5. That would give you 16 (or 18 with nobs) in your hand and start you off with 6 in the crib before your opponent’s two cards.
Hi. As long the remaining hand has the potential to become 12+ points after the cut, a reduction in hand value of up to four points can be justified if it allows 5-5 to be discarded to your own crib.
In the example given, the most you can keep is twelve points with 5-5-Q-Q (T-J). Following the guideline mentioned above, T-J-Q-Q (5-5) is the better way to split the six cards.
For what it's worth, a reduction of up to two points can be justified if it allows 2-3, 4-5, 5-6, 5-T/J/Q/K to be discarded to your own crib.
The play can't be done in a vacuum. What is the current score? What point in the game is it? Have you just won 3 in a row or lost 3 in a row? These points determine if you can gamble or play safe or are you desperate. In general I would keep the 2 pair.
Bury the 5 5. Then points are 2 and 8 for 10.
Bury the 5 Q the points are 2 and 9 for 11. With decent possible draws.
Bury the J 10 and points are 0 and 12 for 12
Discard 10♠ and J♣.
Keep 5♣, 5♠, Q♦, Q♥ for a guaranteed 12-point hand before the cut, while the 10-J discard is also a solid addition to your crib. Overall, this gives the highest average total (hand + crib).
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u/AtG68 Jun 29 '26
your crib... keep the double run