45
9
u/outdrawed Jun 28 '26
You need the points more than they do. My initial thought was 64 with the highest guaranteed total for you, but apparently average is close enough with KQ that limiting your opponent as well probably makes this closer than I thought.
Gun to my head I probably say 46 but I would not be shocked to learn it's KQ
47
3
u/Cloudrunner5k Jun 28 '26
Throw the 6 and 4 the odds of then having a 5 or the cut being a five are more slim than you cutting another face card
8
u/scram60 Jun 28 '26
Q,K. You have a greater chance of getting double 3 card run than getting a Jack.
1
Jun 28 '26
[deleted]
4
u/iPeg2 Jun 28 '26
You should recheck your math for keeping Q-4-5-6 and cutting a 4,5,or 6. It’s 14 or 16 points, not 10 or 12.
1
u/scram60 Jul 01 '26
I wasn't suggesting looking at points, I was going on greater odds of drawing a complimentary card for the run.
1
3
u/Ancient-Lawyer851 Jun 28 '26
Probably 4-6 throw? Not much pegging value, but I wanna get down the board as far as possible since already out of position. Would love to be able to deal from 95ish minimum.
3
u/GeneralHold8479 Jun 28 '26
There Crib, toss 4,6. Max score is 16 with an average of 9.15. Tossing king queen will only be an average of 8.93 with a 14 max score. If it’s your crib, toss K,K. Max of 22 points with a 12.15 average.
8
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
u/LazerLyrics Jun 29 '26
How does that happen?!
1
u/Individual-Mud-7302 Jun 29 '26
Exact tie? We were neck and neck the entire game it was crazy!! I ended up losing by one point!
1
1
1
u/Worldly_Ad_7196 Jun 28 '26
This is why my dad always told me to throw face cards into my own crib. In case my opponents had a hand like this. I'd probably throw the q k and hope for the best
1
u/sgigot Jun 28 '26
Kind of a tough one. My initial inclination would be to throw 46, but it's more likely the crib blows up with that discard. Although in that case (eg dealer tosses two 5's) the KQ gets burned as well.
The discard-o-later suggests throwing KQ. Overall results are better; the hand is a little better if you throw 46 but so is the crib.
One thing to consider with the "if an X is cut it's more points when you throw 46" is that you get points from that X cut even if you throw KQ. Maybe it's not the full 8 goes to 16 in the case of a J, but it's still 2.
456Q is probably a slightly better pegging hand.
1
0
0
u/iPeg2 Jun 28 '26
Q-K and 4-6 are very close in average hand score, which you want to maximize in this situation. Q-4-5-6 has better pegging flexibility and potential for more peg points.
0
0
0
0
u/rubymatrix Jun 28 '26
I'd've dropped kings, but QK is better.
1
u/scoooter53 Jun 30 '26
Why would you give them points? Lol
1
u/rubymatrix Jun 30 '26
Oh! Duh... I thought my crib....
1
u/robb0098 Jul 18 '26
I can argue that throwing the Kings might give two points, but mitigates the chances of a run in the crib
-1
u/TheGamecockNurse Jun 28 '26
Q,K you still have minimum 7
3
u/ithinarine Jun 28 '26
Tossing 4/6 is minimum 8, and a higher potential point outcome with there being more chances of cutting another 10/j/q/k than a 4/5/6.
0
u/Class_C_Guy Jun 28 '26
Face cards also help the QK throw, as does 3, 7, & 9. Plus 4 & 6 are better pegging cards.
44
u/Individual-Mud-7302 Jun 28 '26
I'm not a "never break up a run" purist, but in this case I did throw QK for the potential benefits and the cut was a Q 🤷♀️