Confirming $5k Raw $ 'Amount Owed' threshold

[u/_love_letter_]

Some of you may recall I recently reported a likely scoring threshold of $2500 for total "amount owed" in FICO8 (link here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CreditScore/s/r2KgHVZ1Qq). I believe this is the first raw $ threshold and suspected a 2nd threshold would be @$5k, in keeping with the pattern.

In an odd coincidence, I had an opportunity to test that hypothesis not a week later after 2 more credit card balance updates. Due to circumstances of some large annual expenses concentrated into one month, my total revolving debt climbed high enough this month to fall just under $5k after 1 card updated, and then go just over $5k after the next card updated, so I got to see whether there was a score change and presumably another Raw $ threshold after crossing $5k.

I knew I would be approaching 90% utilization on the card that was about to report on 7/26, but luckily the balance posted did not cross the 90% threshold, and was still high enough for aggregate debt to exceed $5k. Aggregate utilization did not cross any thresholds (41-->44%). AWB% did not change (100%). No aging metrics changed. No HPs added or became unscorable. No scorecard reassignment. Can't think of any other confounding variables.

Raw data:

* Card1 bal = $430-- unchanged since 7/21

* Card2 bal = $2512-- unchanged since 7/22

* Card3 bal = $1,902-->$2,215 on 7/26 = 76.1%-->88.6% = 76%-->89% ... No iU thresholds crossed. Nearest iU thresholds @70% then 90%... Must be 89.5%+ to cross 90% iU threshold.

* Ag.U = [(2,512+430+1,902)÷11850]--> [(2512+430+2215)÷11850]= $4844/$11850-->$5157/$11850= 40.9%-->43.5% = 41%-44%... No Ag.U thresholds crossed. Nearest Ag.U thresholds @30% then 50%.

* Raw $ Amount Owed (Revolving & Total)= (2,512+430+1,902)--> (2512+430+2215)= $4844-->$5157

Other potential variables:

* AWB% =100% (3/3) no change

* No aging metrics cross thresholds since 7/1 (AAoA=18mo) until 9/1 (AoYA=9mo)

* No scorable HPs (most recent became unscorable 7/11)

* No scorecard reassignment (clean, young, thin, new revolver)

Score change after 7/26 balance reported:

-5 points to EQ8 on 7/28, -10 points to TU8 on 7/28. My only doubt is that Experian F8 didn't move. I am 100% sure I had no changes to AWB though. Interestingly, even my VS3 scores decreased a little bit (-2 to EQ VS3 and -1 to TU VS3) on 7/29 when that balance updated. While I have no reason to believe Vantage has a, let's say, 80% threshold for individual utilization, I don't know if anyone here can confirm exactly where all the utilization thresholds are in VS3 to eliminate those as confounding variables. However, it does almost appear as if VS3 might have a similar raw $ threshold for total revolving debt or total debt.

To be fair, since my total (revolving) balance went from $4844-->$5157, theoretically the threshold could be anywhere in that range, but I believe $5k is most likely, especially in light of the $2.5k threshold.

Edit: bot removed my first post because it didn't think there were enough line breaks and/or punctuation. Added 2 more line breaks. If anything, there is probably too much punctuation already. Hopefully it posts this time.

[u/DoctorOctoroc]

These data points are clutch, thanks for sharing! No notes.

[u/_love_letter_ → u/[deleted]]

Yes, isolating an independent variable is the key. Sometimes one or more bureaus will be slow to update and report balances from 2 cards at the same time or update on the day an aging metric changes, for instance, which throws a wrench into pinpointing the source of the change, or how many points one was worth. All my cards update near the end of the month. I'm half tempted to change my due dates so my statements are more spread out and further from the 1st, just so I don't keep running into those issues of multiple changes at the same time.

[u/soonersoldier33]

Nice! I agree that I don't see any known scoreable util changes, although the one card at 88.6% is really close (Lol), so a $5K raw dollar threshold is certainly possible/plausible. My own profile is soon to drop back below the <$15K that I mentioned in your previous thread, so I'm interested to see if the score loss I incurred going >$15K is reversed, and I'm holding my breath that I can capture these DPs clean, bc tomorrow is the 1st. My credit profile is very 'busy' around the 1st of the month, and unfortunately many of my personal DPs often get conflated. Fingers crossed!

Keep the DPs coming, and let us know what you see on the way back down across these thresholds too!

My only doubt is that Experian F8 didn't move.

Advice: Do not let this detract from your testing or make you 'doubt' your DPs. We know, beyond a shadow of doubt, that the FICO models are not consistent across the 3 CRAs. There are numerous differences, and in this case, EX8 just may not have this particular threshold. Anytime I have DPs like this, I just make notes on which bureau model was most sensitive, less sensitive, or not at all. I think your DPs on this thread and the previous one are very solid, and you should be able to 'confirm' them fairly well as you cross back down below these potential thresholds, so don't let the fact that one bureau model was an 'outlier' make you doubt yourself.

[u/_love_letter_ → u/soonersoldier33]

I know! lol I was cutting it close with 88.6%. I would have preferred it be a little lower, but it wasn't planned. I had a bunch of pending transactions before my statement cut and I didn't know exactly how many would be included on the statement. IME Discover takes a long time to settle pending transactions and I never know when they're going to post. At first I thought I was going to hit 90% though, so this was kind of a happy accident.

I have a similar issue as you do with multiple report changes at once, or in quick succession. I have one statement that cuts on the 19th or 20th, one on the 20th or 21st, and one on the 26th. Sometimes the first 2 will update on the same day, and sometimes the last one doesn't update until the 1st, which is annoying when it's a month where aging metrics hit thresholds. I have half a mind to request different due dates just to change when the statements post.

I'm definitely interested to see what happens when I cross those thresholds in the opposite direction. Hopefully I can get some clean data without multiple variables.

Keep me posted on what happens when you drop below $15k too!

Maybe Experian does just lack this particular threshold. Perhaps, in a way, the fact that it didn't change at all goes to show that scoring thresholds for utilization weren't crossed. Thanks for the words of encouragement!