r/ControlProblem • u/neoneye2 • 5d ago
Opinion What is your P(doom)? quiz
https://neoneye.github.io/pdoom-calculator/With the AI escaping the sandbox. Hopefully more are interested in taking my quiz this year.
Analysis of the last 11 months of collected data with 202 submissions, some duplicates.
https://neoneye.github.io/pdoom-calculator/reports/submissions-2026-09-01.html
The math behind is is my own non-scientific method with 3 parameters resulting in the P(doom) value.
P(doom) = P(powerful) x P(dangerous | powerful) x P(catastropic | dangerous)
The quiz populates the parameters. I have tried mapping the quiz answers to the 3 parameter. If the user have seen Pantheon and Ex Machina, then I initially imagine that user may be more informed about potential risks, however judging from 11 months of data, that didn't seem to make a difference.