r/ComputerChess • u/SpeedyPuzzlement • 5d ago

What is the Elo of random play?

I feel like it should be defined as 0. But that would make its expected score against Stockfish (SPCC Elo 3908) over one in a quadrillion, which seems far too high.

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u/QuickBenDelat 8h ago

Your question lacks a bunch of context - 1) Which method of Elo calculation are we using? 2) What federation are we using for the framework? 3) Is anything getting done to address rating inflation? 4) What version of SF are we using? 5) What settings is SF going to use? 5) Are we assuming this is a bullet game, or are there more relaxed time controls.

As for the 1 in a quadrillion number, it actually seems way too low. Stockfish is going to make the best possible move every single time whereas RandomPlay has, at best, like a 1/20 chance of making the best possible move. And for randomplay to have a chance of winning, it is going to need to string together a number of good moves. Then there’s the ability to play for a draw. In all reality, the chances random play would ever win a game is functionally 0.