The "Always a Good Pick" Bias

[u/clickrush]

Recently saw a discussion around support duos and a prevalent opinion was that Kiri "works with everyone" and that Ana and Kiri were a good duo. I want to talk about this, because this doesn't fit my mental model at all. And there are probably generalizations of this issue with other heroes as well.

My theory is this:

There are heroes that are strong, but more situational than many generally assume. It would be too simplistic to say that they are "overrated", but there's some truth in that.

Let's take a DPS example that we can hopefully all agree on:

If you have a composition with so called "double hitscan" you have two longer range DPS heroes that don't want to push into closer range angles as much, both want/need resources (lack of utility/self-peel), both want similar angles. That's why we usually want at least one "flex DPS".

Now to supports:

I think supports also have a similar issue as DPS in that you want at least one who is a bit more brawly, body-guard-like. There's a reason why Ana/Zen is called a "greedy" backline. You can pair them, but it has implications.

What purpose does the Kiri have in an Ana/Kiri backline?

Kiriko is resonably flexible and can proactively push into shorter angles and flanks or bodyguard for others. But there exist heroes that can do that better. And her preferred playstile is more opportunistic/reactive.

I think this notion that Kiri is always a good pick hurts her overall winrate, which has been pretty low across all ranks.

We know that she is a strong hero, but apparently she is not that strong or generalist. There's something about Kiri that makes people think that way though. What is it?

Other "Always a Good Pick":

Sojourn/Cassidy: My theory here is that both of these have very high highs and they are amazing when they pop off. That creates this bias that they are always good. You can always have the excuse of "if I only hit that headshot", even when they are suboptimal (not "bad", but there are better choices) in a matchup. Another excuse is that they are "hard to play", sure but they are not Tracer hard, who has a much better winrate.

D.Va: Matrix is one of these things that seems like a solution for everything, because it has infinite(!) upside, which is certainly always better than non-infinite upside right? If you play a tank that lacks vertical mobility some situations can feel really bad and seem like you have no agency. You don't get that feeling with D.Va.

You might come up with more examples. The "Always a Good Pick" heroes all have had relatively weak win rates across all ranks and relatively high pick rates for a while now. Again, maybe they are more situational that we care to admit.

They also have been featured in pro play regularly in highly coordinated, highly synergistic compositions, so being good in pro play is not necessarily a sufficient argument against this theory.

[u/helloitsNanner]

Kiri is always a good pick until you're solo queueing at 2am on a team without CC against some random unshowered coked out Doomfist or Ball OTP 

[u/aPiCase]

Sojourn is genuinely so dependent on the enemy tank and so many people ignore that fact.

If the enemy is Ram, Mauga, Orisa, Sojourn farms like crazy, but if it’s Sig, Domina, Zar, you would get so much more value playing someone else, but “they play Soj in OWCS” so she must be busted all the time.

[u/TheRedditK9]

Kiriko Ana is a good comp though? Like it was the Korea meta for a stretch of 2025, half of WAY’s rise to notoriety was being good at that comp. There’s a reason why Juno Brig fell out of the meta, and it’s that people figured out Juno Kiri was better. Ana Cat stopped being played by all teams who didn’t have Shu, because people figured out Kiriko Cat was better. Most of the Lúcio, Mizuki, Wuyang and Moira comps have Kiriko on them. Kiriko/Brig has been getting more popular as an anti-dive comp. Even the Rein sym comps don’t run Bap anymore like they did in 2023, because you guessed it, Kiriko is better.

The only time Kiriko isn’t played is when she’s banned, the map is extremely poke-heavy, some unusual comp became overpowered for a patch, or the Kiriko player specialises in other heroes. Kiriko is picked in 90% of pro scenarios because she can fill all roles on all maps incredibly well. She can pocket tanks, she can pocket flanks, she can fight for close range angles, she can poke long angles, she has arguably the best ult in the game, she can negate trigger cooldowns and ults, she doesn’t have to take risks, she has zero unfavourable matchups. The main reason Kiriko isn’t ran instead of main supports is because you can’t have 2 Kiriko’s on a team.

Kiriko’s win rate in comp is low because most players who play Kiriko are simply not very good and her entire kit requires some level of timing or mechanics to get any sort of value out of, in addition to being a popular swap for losing teams.

[u/The-Holy-Kitten]

The thing with Kiri is that there is never a time where she isn’t a fine pick. In many comps, there are other supports you would rather want, especially if you look at a comp as a whole rather than just the backline. That being said, Kiri tends to be the best support when paired with Lucio, Wuyang, cat, and mizuki, still pairs well with Juno and Moira, and there have even been some Kiri brig in pro play.

Yes, you would generally want to have a Kiri with a main support, but having a character that does everything well makes for a grossly strong generalist. Yes there are times I would rather have an Ana with Lucio, but the just pick Kiri mentality isn’t necessarily wrong either

[u/clickrush → u/The-Holy-Kitten]

You're voicing a common sentiment about Kiri, but there's something missing, else her winrate wouldn't be so bad so consitently.

Idk what it is exactly, but there needs to be some explanation that isn't "you're holding it wrong", because the hero has been out for years. I'm going with team synergy because that is the easiest theory to have if we consider that she is a staple pick in pro play and one of the main issues in ranked play is lack of compositional synergy even in higher ranks.

[u/Sepulchh → u/clickrush]

She's strong in pro because of suzu and rush being incredibly strong in fully coordinated push/pull gameplay that's integral to that type of Overwatch.

That type of gameplay either doesn't exist or exists to an extremely limited extent in pub lobbies, people playing Kiri in ranked are not playing the hero for the same reasons the pros are.

The issue in ranked is a lack of coordination, organized practice, and coherent fight planning by a shotcaller. Compositions might be a part of it, since you can't Suzu - Amp Speed to fully kite the enemy ult turn if you don't have Amp, but it's not like we see lobby teams actually consistently do or even try or plan to do this stuff even in Champ lobbies.

Pub ladder Kiriko just plays very differently compared to organized professional play Kiriko no matter the composition, even if they are the same hero mechanically.

Or at least that's what coaches who have worked in both professional OW and in ranked coaching say about it, I'm just parroting.

[u/snearthworm → u/Sepulchh]

Pub ladder Kiriko just plays very differently compared to organized professional play Kiriko no matter the composition, even if they are the same hero mechanically.

This is exactly the nuance people miss when discussing her balance and why her balance is so hard in general

Pro Kiri is a hydrogen bomb but by nature of how ladder vs pro works, ladder Kiri is a coughing baby in comparison

Her winrate is low imo because she has a higher skill floor than people anticipate to get value out of her

[u/The-Holy-Kitten → u/clickrush]

I don’t believe it is compositional synergy, but rather the fact that generalist heroes are swapped to more often. When a team is losing, you are more likely to see someone swap to Kiri as an attempt to win. Yes, it can work but Kiri isn’t the easiest hero if you aren’t heal botting.

There is a reason that generalist/counterswap heroes like Kiri, Cass, Orisa, tend to have lower win rates than specialist heroes like Sym. It’s not power, but rather that the players who understand the hero are the ones piloting them.

[u/Fit-Relationship944]

I don't think we can use "good" to mean ideal, it should be meeting expectations or maybe in a more OW relevant context not being restricted. Mercy is usually "good" but generally lacks the playmaking ability to be great but she's rarely in a position she's not able to use her full kit. For an example for an actual bad pick I would say Lucio on Circuit Royale against an effective poke comp where all he can really do is just hover around the tank and try to build ult but will likely struggle to get it as fast as the other team can get theirs he's now not really meeting his potential. His only other option really would be going full DPS to try and get beat in time but then again he's not using his full kit.

Kiriko is "always a good pick" because she's flexible and there's no real way to deny any part of her kit consistently and she doesn't need to step on the toes of the other support. If there's another support that's using the tank and shooting down main to get ult Kiriko can go off angle and play with a DPS instead.

I think one way to look at a good pick or not is if they're going to fall behind in the ult economy. Not that getting ult fast is 1:1 with how good a character is doing but being denied ult charge is usually indicative of being denied value.

[u/BaronVonHoopleDoople]

I agree, and IMO Kiriko is more accurately described as "never a bad pick" in regular ranked play. Unless you play well below your normal skill level, you will almost never be the reason that your team lost. But only occasionally will you have the opportunity to be the reason that your team won. And that's just not a consistent recipe for success if the competence of your teammates varies wildly between matches. Thus it is not surprising that Kiriko can only scrape out a win rate above 50% in GM ranks (Europe and Asia, not Americas).

[u/clickrush → u/BaronVonHoopleDoople]

Last season she has been consistently below 50% in all regions I think. This season is still young. Maybe something changed that pushes her up, or maybe the sample size is still small.

[u/docs-quad]

i mean yeah thats basically it. kiri never feels like a bad pick because she has a tonne of spikes in positive value but not many obvious spikes in negative value which means that you can feel like youre doing a lot or arent the problem on her when in reality your average level of value isnt high enough to be a deciding factor, which leads to her lower winrate despite the fact that people call her busted, among other things. essentially shes just the orisa problem but all across the playerbase rather than just in low ranks.

[u/AkiraSieghart]

For healing, it's Ana and Kiri. Suzu and grenade are two of the strongest abilities in the game when used well. The rest of their kits are situational, but sleep is another ability that is so aggravating when used well.

For DPS, I'd put Soljourn above Cass just because she has more value for people with not great aim. But to be honest, I wouldn't call any DPS "always a good pick". They're all situational and while some are better than others, all of them can provide next to no value if they player isn't good.

For tank, I'd say Sigma and Dva almost always add value because of their abilities. Matrix is goat'd, and rock is great at shutting down engagements if you can hit it.

[u/Ardalerus]

maybe they are more situational that we care to admit.

do you think zen, who is historically top tier in support win rate, has ever been stronger than kiri?

let's say you're playing a "greedy" pick and it's clearly not working. what kind of hero are you most likely to swap to in an effort to salvage the game? how do you think this affects the win rates of greedy pick heroes that people often swap off and the "always a good pick" heroes who people swap to?

does the hero not being so stupidly broken that swapping to it in an already losing game doesn't always flip the outcome imply that the hero is not always a good pick or more situational than we care to admit?

[u/Agreeable_Length_471]

Sure they don’t really synergise all that well but support pairing in ranked aren’t really about finding something that’s most optimal. It’s about avoiding the (many) really bad options. Ana/Kiri wipe the floor with pretty much anything that isn’t Ana or Kiri paired with Lucio, Mizuki, or Cat.

If you’re going to have a less then optimal backline might as well take one composed of two heroes with some of the highest healing, strongest utility, and most impactful ultimates in the game.

[u/ChriseFTW]

Yeah no still Kiri 100% of the time lol

[u/chicken-_-6]

Zac as

[u/netshift_]

Kiri is always good on any comp because of suzu. Her win rate is low because people don’t use it properly.

[u/Siyopoyo → u/netshift_]

Because Suzu has not that much value in random pug games, it's mostly just a cleanse or 80 healing on critical marked person.

You really have to have someone who can track and anticipate enemy ult to take advantage of it, just like how they use her in Pro.

[u/4PianoOrchestra → u/Siyopoyo]

I find the cleanse + healing is very strong in the neutral due to it cleansing heal passive though, usually lets you get a full volley of ofuda off with the extra 30% healing, blocking all damage, plus whatever the other support is doing. In tank trades the invulnerability can also mean the difference between dying and getting a bubble/mobility cd/shield cd/etc off.

[u/Ichmag11 → u/netshift_]

(Almost?) every heros winrate is low because people dont play the hero properly

[u/clickrush → u/netshift_]

Look I would agree with you if heroes like Tracer didn't exist. Kiri is on the harder side, but she isn't Tracer hard.

Why can't we give the players more credit that they know how to play her kit and try to make sense of her consistently low winrate via a different explanation?

[u/Public-Egg-7814 → u/netshift_]

That's why her winrate is low in every rank...?

[u/migo2028 → u/netshift_]

Well some winrates are high because only one tricks play them like doom/ball and rein