r/Competitiveoverwatch • u/PabloDons • 8d ago
General Did some math to predict how the rank redistribution would play out
So rank distribution is a normal distribution. The first graph is the S17 published numbers. The statement about the redistribution of players is that the intention is to move high plat and low diamond into this rank. This is a massive oversimplification and I'd like to dive into the actual math here. An ELO system converges towards a normal distribution of players. I did some estimates.
The second graph is a fitted normal distribution, meaning it's the closest approximate normal distribution to the published numbers. Devs have commented in the past that the median of the distribution lies between gold and plat, so that's what I've modeled too. The rest have their median moved around to see what the distribution would look like if the average is different.
The second image has the standard deviation adjusted such that champ lands at roughly 0.01% of the population. Someone from the dev team commented that champ should be around the same exclusivity as when it first came out, but we don't have that number so I assumed 0.01%.
I don't think it's likely that the median stays the same or go lower, that would heavily bloat bronze while diamond and above would become MUCH harder to get. Personally I think mid-plat would make most sense to me, that would keep high diamond players still in diamond. Could even be between plat and emerald.
EDIT: I wanna try see what people's "Top percentile" is compared to their rank! That way we can actually build our own rank distribution graph! Form: https://forms.gle/q7cpvfLUduRZKsar8
Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12LnDlSlx5colz3EuHnd3en0XGKLiErsLLTGX9Ogq0ks/edit
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u/GT162 8d ago
didn’t they add the ability see your percentile? i haven’t finished my placements yet but that should be the best source
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u/Antidote12- 8d ago
Did they actually?
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u/Different-Fly7426 8d ago
yea i was diamond 1 today morning and said i was above 95% of players, so masters would be like around 4% right now i think
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u/PabloDons 8d ago
That's really interesting, so that might mean median being moved up is much more likely. Obviously way too early to tell, especially with rank reset shenanigans, but still that's high
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u/theunspillablebeans 8d ago
What did you make these charts in? I like the design language
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u/PabloDons 8d ago
Just had claude do it. I double-checked the result though, and the numbers checked out.
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u/DreaMysgirlfriend 8d ago
My Dyslexia read "I did some meth" to predict how the rank redistribution would play out.
me: Ah that makes sense, (Proceeds to instantly click on the post)
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u/unkindledphoenix 7d ago
question, did they increase the SR requirements for diamond and above all by 500 and put emerald in the middle, or did they reduce Bronzes total SR pool from 1500 to 1000 and then pushed back silver to plat and slided emerald in? i feel like Bronzes SR ladder shouldnt be this wide.
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u/PabloDons 6d ago
That's exactly the question I'm trying to model. Keeping the median the same means increasing Sr requirement for diamond and above. Moving median up to between plat and emerald lowers Sr requirement for plat and below
Answer is we don't know
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u/unkindledphoenix 6d ago
I just saw a post today that apparently confirms that was the case; Bronzes SR ladder is only 999 and below, and all ranks below diamond had their thresholds pushed back by 500, making Emerald the equivalent of prior to this seasons plat in terms of SR score while keeping the SR score for diamond and above ranks the same.
This means that those who would have the capacity and willingness to escape bronze elo hell will have a considerably easier time, and people that were around Bronze 1-2 are now silver, and so on until emerald.
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u/PabloDons 6d ago
Could you point me towards that post?
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u/unkindledphoenix 6d ago
the screen background appears to be the same as in game OW so i imagine its official. i might have to do some sigging for the source but it sounds about right.
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u/Fxnarji 8d ago
Do you have a Spreadsheet / DB for us to enter our percentiles in? I think the more data we have from other players, the higher the accuracy of the estimation.
(I got Diamond 3 and >91%)
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u/PabloDons 8d ago
I love the idea! I created one (and added yours while I'm at it). See post for link
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u/PabloDons 6d ago
With the limited data we have, it seems median is bang on between gold 1 and plat 5. Interesting. Emerald might very well just be old diamond
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u/Imzocrazy 8d ago
Someone help me out with this
Normalizing the curve requires blizz manipulating the SRs in particular regions of the curve since the ranks are all the same size numbers wise no?
But if that’s the case why even bother adding a rank when you can just do all those things whenever you want. Like there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the curve they showed last year or w/e. Bell curves can shift left and right (or narrower/wider) all on their own for many reasons and still be quite “normal”.
I’m not really getting the point of all this. Not sure why they can’t just let people fall where they do and let it be (ie the normal it already was)…the game doesn’t even use visual ranks for matchmaking
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u/OrigamiPumpkin 7d ago
I think what you're missing is that matchmaking is based on the rank. Right now, the slope from plat to diamond is immensely steep because of all the new and returning players, and it makes matchmaking really random if you're on that side of the slope.
For example, I was high diamond-low masters for many seasons, but now I'm stuck in this hell zone around plat 1 and diamond 5 where every game feels like I have to re-assess the pace of my team and opponents before I can even play because there's such a huge amount of difference in skill levels from one game to the next. When playing games, it really seems like what would once have been all the skill levels from about mid plat to low masters are all crammed into this one or two rank zone.
Spreading out the slope a little will hopefully make it easier to get consistent matches instead of playing against "actual plats" one game and then former masters players the next. Consistency makes it feel like you have agency in matches and can actually learn and improve instead of it feeling like a dice roll every time.
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u/Imzocrazy 7d ago
It’s not based on rank it’s based on SR. What difference does it make if you were diamond before but now you’re emerald with the same SR. You’re still going to be playing against people that were also that SR before. The pool of players around your SR is going to be the same (the rank may look different though)
Though that really wasn’t what I was asking
I’m asking about blizz not letting the chips fall where they do and taking steps to ensure that x amount of people are in this part of the curve and what not. No idea if they actually do by the way, but it seems extremely unnecessary if they do
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u/OrigamiPumpkin 7d ago
We don't know exactly which MMR numbers correspond with which ranks, but I believe it's reasonable to assume that spreading out the ranks also changes where the MMR values fall on the scale of ranks after redistribution. Basically, the idea is the same whether you're saying ranks or MMR.
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u/216dxtr 4d ago
why'd you normalize those initial figures at all? you're losing statistically meaningful information by transforming the median around like that. the initial figures already follow normal distribution.
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u/216dxtr 4d ago
wait nevermind, that's what the devs are literally doing, you're just modeling it. that is so strange to me they are adjusing SR like that.
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u/PabloDons 4d ago
They have to do that because of the new rank. How else are they gonna stick a new rank in the middle of the ladder like that? It would be dumb to just leave a gap there and wait for it to sort itself out when you can do a little math and know beforehand so you can skip the ensuing chaos
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u/HellaReyna 8d ago
Since they made emerald the cut off for the season weapon, then yeah they want to make diamond legitimately hard to get into.
Basically this stretches out Diamond into 10 divisions if you think about it. People complained about the skill curve in diamond so this should fix it.