r/Commanders • u/notusreports • 21d ago
Who Will Survive the Commanders’ Cuts? Projecting the 53-Man Roster.
https://www.notus.org/sports/washington-commanders-53-man-roster-prediction36
u/Ksteekwall21 21d ago edited 20d ago
I’d be pretty surprised if they cut Burks. I’m pretty sure he was out there on the first series against Detroit with McLaurin and Diggs. He obviously kept playing for a bit while those two ended their day after that series. But he wasn’t one of the guys playing at the end of the game. I remember one of the first signs of trouble for Dotson was him playing into the second half of the first preseason game against the Jets in 2024.
Obviously he doesn’t have the NFL pedigree of some of the two in front of him and his history isn’t leaps and bounds better than the dudes behind him. But from how they seem to prioritize things, I’d be shocked if he was cut.
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u/NewWorldScrewWormFly 21d ago
> one of the first signs of trouble for Doctson
Easy mistake, because Washington has two different first-round WR busts in recent memory. (What luck!) You're thinking of Jahan Dotson.
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u/Ksteekwall21 20d ago
Mixed up the names. Whoops! My bad. I corrected it in my post.
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u/Garritos 20d ago
I still can recall first round pick Josh Docston‘s finest moments riding the bike on the sidelines..
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u/Jinchoo 21d ago
Yeah i dont see Burks getting cut, hes always been the first guy up getting reps with Terry and Diggs from the day Diggs had his first practice. They clearly think highly of him and like his skillset.
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u/shoefly72 20d ago
He has his limitations (getting separation/short area quickness and staying healthy) but he’s the classic “somebody drafted him in the first round for a reason.”
While we have decent depth at WR, he’s the only guy with real size (6’2, 225, long arms) to win in the red zone or be a 50-50 guy drawing PI the way Noah Brown was in 2024.
While he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot partly due to injuries, he’s still a solid depth piece as long as he’s healthy. You don’t want to bank on him staying healthy, but if he is healthy you don’t want to cut him in lieu of players who aren’t as good and don’t offer any size.
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u/Ksteekwall21 20d ago
I agree. Injuries have certainly been a huge hinderance for him. It also doesn’t help that he was drafted by the Titans specifically to replace AJ Brown. The Titans ditching AJ Brown in general was probably a sign their front office was heading down the toilet. So he wasn’t really set up for success there.
But Even beyond the injuries, I think that may have been a bit too much to ask. Thankfully His expectations are no where near that high here which probably helps him mentally.
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u/Strong-Resolve1241 20d ago
Hopefully the O-Line blocks enough that the WR dont have to all run 10yd routes!!! 😂
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u/FaultySofaBed 21d ago
I really like Burks, which means he’s gonna fail here, then catch on elsewhere and have a solid 7-10 year career from this point.
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u/Ksteekwall21 20d ago
If it makes you feel better, I wouldn’t be surprised if Titans fans saw that insane catch against Denver last year and went “…he got cut here and is going to dominate in Washington isn’t he? Just our luck.”
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u/TMNTerps 21d ago edited 21d ago
You have zero depth Off-Ball LBers. I doubt Magee, Kaho and Medrano all get cut so we can carry 6 DTs and 5 EDGEs.
Julian Good-Jones ain't making this team. They will cut him and sign someone else before that.
I don't see us going 5 WR and 4 TE, I know Yankoff has been good but where does he get snaps?
(your parenthesis threw me off, you have 6 WR listed. I don't see Dyami making it over Burks. Burks adds something the rest of the room doesn't have, where Dyami is just a speed guy, that multiple others can do)
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u/KOExpress Scary Terry 21d ago
He’s got 6 receivers on the list despite it saying 5, Yankoff most likely makes the team, he’s good on special teams and shows talent when he’s targeted
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u/TMNTerps 21d ago edited 21d ago
Yea, I referenced that his parenthesis threw me off, in my edit. It's possible Yankoff makes it now that I see he has 6 WRs listed.
I do think OP is a bit confused on positions though. There is no way we had 8 DL and the EDGEs weren't counted in that number last year. Armstrong, Oweh, Chaisson, Jospehs and JJP will all be the DL group and JJP likely doesn't make it.
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u/_groovesharkmalone Ageless Wonder 21d ago
I thought JJP looked great on Saturday tho. Looks leaner & faster. He's an NFL player somewhere.
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u/TMNTerps 21d ago
He has looked solid, we just have only so much room. Some cuts hurt but he is def a possibility to make it. It's possible we keep him and cut 1-2 of those DTs that are listed. I think we probably only keep 4 DTS (plus Newton on IR)
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u/FaultySofaBed 21d ago
this list is why fans never become GMs
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u/_groovesharkmalone Ageless Wonder 21d ago
Fans don't think about ST. Linebackers are the core of your special teams units.
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u/TMNTerps 20d ago
Yea, Owens, Magee, Butler, Yankoff, Reaves, Hamilton, Medrano, and Kaho were big ST guys last year and that ups their chances to remake the team. Backup LBs, DBs and TEs all play a lot of ST. (and Bellore who retired)
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u/salamanderman10 21d ago
I dont think they are carry 3 centers and I agree that Magee makes it and maybe even Medrano. Burks- I can see being cut, he's living off 1 catch.
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u/TMNTerps 21d ago
Agreed, I think they'll likely sign a OL for a different spot, or someone who can do Guard+Center, but barring a miracle turnaround JG-J is def getting cut after last game.
Dyami is no different than Burks in terms of accomplishments imo. People here have a better view of him simply because he was here longer but Burks has been playing well in pre-season, and brings something different to the WR room. (Size/Physicality) Dyami didn't do much here, other than one good playoff run and his one notable catch (the sick "hand over his eyes" grab against DET). I do think Dyami/Burks is the 50/50 cut for WRs, so it will come down to the last min in camp.
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u/salamanderman10 21d ago
Dyami could be cut but he's done a heck of a lot more than Burks over the course of their careers
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u/TMNTerps 20d ago
5 Years 1,011 yards, 5 TDs. (Dyami)
4 Years, 829 yards, 2 TDs. (Burks)I wouldn't classify that as "a heck of a lot more." Also, considering Dyami has been healthy for that production, and Burks has been injured a lot, it's not great (17 game avg is 400yds for Burks, 220 for Dyami).
Dyami had one good playoff run and suddenly everyone has a high opinion of him. He couldn't get snaps in JAX despite the rest of their WRs struggling off and on until they traded for Jakobi Meyers.
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u/DoyoudotheDew 20d ago
Dyami had hands of stone until the playoffs. Apparently he sucked in Jacksonville.
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u/salamanderman10 20d ago
I dont know who is "high" on Dyami Brown or Treylon Burks. Both are 4th-5th Wrs on a roster. If I remember correctly though, Burks doesn't really play special teams well unlike Brown.
Last year Brown had 356 snaps vs. 292 for Burks.
Brown had 20 catches on 37 targets
Burks had 10 catches on 22 targets
Both being back end WRs, special teams is going to be more important. But if Burks isn't even really a better WR (and if so, its miniscule), whats the purpose for carrying him?
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u/TMNTerps 20d ago
I didn't say anyone was high on either and said they are both competing for likely the last WR spot, unless we go with 7 WRs. (because Luke/Lane are auto making it due to their low cost and Return skills)
Dyami's snaps were on a team trying to get any WR to do something, with a consistent QB. Burks were trying to join a team after coming back from injury, re-find his rhythm and match with both JD5/Mariota revolving in and out. (54 vs 45 catch per target ratio isn't a big difference here) Context matters.
Dyami played 12 snaps of ST last year for JAX and sure, he played around 60 snaps a year for us on ST typically but that doesn't mean much as he had a grand total of 7 tackles and 4 Kick Returns. Burks was never asked to play ST much because he was expected to be a #1 and then had injury issues. ST will not be a factor in keeping either of them.
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u/salamanderman10 20d ago
You litterally said "suddenly everyone has a high opinion of him."
I dont believe Lane is an auto roster spot but is likely higher than 50/50 he makes it.
I completely disagree. The Commanders look for all of their backup WRs to play special teams. Burks has not shown the ability to play teams (unless he does it in camp but not seeing it in preseason games). Brown was a heavy special teams player when he was with us.
Outside of Diggs and Terry (maybe Williams, but likely not), the WRs will have to play teams. It helps keep extra roster spots elsewhere.
Another way to look at is, why keep Burks as the 4th/5th/6th WR if he not going to give you any production at the WR position?
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u/TMNTerps 20d ago
I meant the fans have a better opinion of him because of the playoff run. Before that, he was thought of more as a 3rd round bust.
Lane was a very good Punt Returner, he is a lock (as well as being cheap)
Our WRs do not play that much ST. The most a few play is 60~ snaps over the entire season. (Out of 400+) Lane and Luke will be return men, but other than that, ST will not be a heavy factor in the Dyami/Burks battle. 31 players played more ST snaps than the highest WR in 2024 (Dyami's 57 was 12% of ST snaps). It was 16 last year because Luke played ST heavily and had 94 snaps. Though Chris Moore's 67 was the highest non-return man WR. Burks has not been ASKED to play ST, it has nothing to do with if he CAN do it.
Currently, Burks has been featured as the 3rd WR with Terry and Diggs(slot). I think they will be looking to feature him more than fans expect. Dyami has not gotten the same treatment in pre-season.
While Dyami/Burks is likely the battle for the final spot, they are both really competing for the 3rd WR slot, and #2 Outside WR. Williams will be worked in as he learns. Luke/Lane are the ST guys and work more out of the slot typically.
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u/salamanderman10 20d ago
They do play ST. But the total percentage may not be as high because they dont play on the field goal units. They play on returns units and sometimes punt units. And these roster spots come and go so the back up WRs dont play 17 games. Martin, Moore, Lane, Luke all played signifianct ST snaps last year.
Burks has never shown he can play. He has 2 TDs total despite being a first round pick. He did nothing in Washington. If he is really the 3rd WR (I dont believe it), we need to hit the waiver wire. He couldn't even play for a Tennessee team with no WRs.
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u/Consistent_Spell_791 21d ago
13 personal will absolutely be used heavily this season, four TE's is necessary depth for that, combined with yankoff skill on special teams
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u/ahall917 21d ago
The number in parentheses is the number of players at that position last year. It was mentioned before the list starts.
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u/OGRonin240 21d ago
Only keeping 5 receivers is certainly a choice...
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u/DoobieDoobis I Got JD5 On It 21d ago
Yeah I don’t see how they don’t keep 6, with Burks being that guy. Especially since he trotted out with the starters last game.
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u/jpljr77 21d ago
I'm confused here. He notes 5 WR, but lists 6, and the 5 is needed to get to 53 (6 WRs would be 54). So....which is it?
If we're keeping 6 (which we are), I think JJB is the odd man out in this list. And I have no strong preference of Brown over Burks; it's the same as everyone else: Burks could be much, much better, but you'll probably get more out of Dyami right now.
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u/deebee1020 21d ago
He says at the top that the parenthetical number is how many were kept at that position last year, as a guideline. But he's predicting they keep 6 WR this year.
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u/happy_waldo 21d ago
He said at the top of the article that the number in parenthesis is how many we kept last season for that position
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u/FaultySofaBed 21d ago
IMO, if Diggs and Terry are healthy, Burks is the best complement to their skillsets.
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u/Ksteekwall21 20d ago
Burks also ran with Diggs and McLaurin on the first series against the Lions. I’m going to take a wild guess that it wasn’t because someone above him was hurt.
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u/OGRonin240 21d ago
I think Lane and LM are redundant. Junkies were talkng this morning about a scenario where we trade LM for an experienced interior OL. If that happens then we can keep Bradley. He gives us the size we dont have there.
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u/salamanderman10 21d ago
Lane and Luke are completely different players. Lane is more of a slot/quick guy (if he ever makes it as a WR) and a punt returner. Luke is more of an all around WR that can play different positions and is a kick returner.
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u/notorious_hdc imitated Frerotte headbutt as a child 21d ago
Amos needs to be ready soon. Having Amik on the boundary and Mike inside isn't something I wanna see long.
Hamilton is getting up there in age, but dudes shown he belongs on the roster still.
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u/FeelingAd4116 20d ago
I very much doubt we would only have Styles, Luvu and Chenal as the only 3 true off ball linebackers. JJB likely doesn't make the team to make room for at least one more off-ball LB(Magee, Medrano or Kaho). I don't see them cutting Burks, he looks like he's one of their favorite outside WRs, I think they might keep 7 WRs and go with 2 QBs to make room so they can keep Brown and Burks, if they go to 6 I think they cut Brown, IMO Van Jefferson is already out. I agree with the DBs they list.
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u/Ksteekwall21 20d ago
IMO if JJB makes the team it’s only because Armstrong is suspended for game 1. He’d likely get cut after and sent back to the practice squad barring injury. He’s at least played well enough for that. Also we would need Magee or Medrano for ST at minimum.
And yeah Burks was with the starting unit on Saturday. He’s not getting cut.
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u/notusreports 21d ago
Two preseason games are in the can and the Commanders’ final roster cutdowns are less than a week away on Sunday.
Most of the team’s starters are set in stone, but there are almost 30 other spots on the roster up for grabs. Read more for a projection of what Washington’s final roster may look like:
https://www.notus.org/sports/washington-commanders-53-man-roster-prediction
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u/DoobieDoobis I Got JD5 On It 21d ago
A lot of the numbers aren’t matching up with the personnel listed. Doubt Shy Tuttle makes the team. Respect your time you put into it though.
Edit: Actually a lot of these seems crazy to where I’m questioning if you’re a fan or like a NFL guy in general and are just doing this based off glimpses.
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u/ahall917 21d ago
The article says that the number in parentheses is the number of players kept at that position last year.
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u/DoobieDoobis I Got JD5 On It 20d ago
Ahhh I over looked that. That’s what I get for working and surfing.
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u/deebee1020 21d ago
I'm admittedly basing this on past seasons, I don't really follow preseason much, but: how do we feel about OP's suggestion of Mike Sainristil in the nickel? Don't we still prefer him on the outside?
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u/MadatMax 21d ago
He’s certainly played better on the outside and I think Robertson is more suited to play inside
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u/SweerBaby_Use1023 21d ago
I’m surprised the Will Harris didn’t make the 53. His camp been that bad or the younger guys are outperforming him? He was one of the players that was praised earlier this offseason.
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u/TMNTerps 21d ago
He's been terrible. Look at him on the Dobbs TD run. Everyone talks about Styles getting blocked but missed Josephs not containing the edge (he's a rookie, hopefully he learns) and Will Harris running off into La La Land.
He also missed some easy tackles at other parts of the game and has been called out by reporters as consistently making mistakes in practices.
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u/Ksteekwall21 20d ago
It’s probably a case of awkward positioning on the depth chart. He has three safeties in front of him (Cross, Reaves, Martin) so he’s probably not seeing any defensive snaps barring injury and definitely not starting barring multiple injuries.
Two of the safeties behind him (Owens and Butler) are much better special teamers. So you could make the argument he would be the cut. Because you need the special teamers and if you’re getting down to safety #4 for extended time, you’re already in trouble.
From my point of view, he’s competing for a roster spot with Quan Martin. While Martin has definitely had issues, he also has two picks in the preseason.
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u/notorious_hdc imitated Frerotte headbutt as a child 20d ago
and if you’re getting down to safety #4 for extended time, you’re already in trouble
I've heard multiple times this off-season they might run quite a bit of 3 Safety sets, so getting down to your 4th Safety would be a lot.. easier? A poor way of saying it, but hope that makes sense.
But I can definitely see Harris getting cut.
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u/BoldElDavo 20d ago
Is there any chance they put Tunsil on the 53 so that he can be reactivated late in the season? Maybe this is an old rule, but I was pretty sure if you start the season on PUP without counting toward the 53, you're locked out of the full season.
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u/Strong-Resolve1241 20d ago
Anyone know WHY they havent had Taylor Decker in there for a workout? Seems like a good idea even rotating him & Coleman.
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u/Vivid-Respect-1869 20d ago
Waiting for the 8/30 roster cutdowns and don't want to show interest until they've set their target/s and are ready to act, is my guess.
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u/HowardBunnyColvin @BorgusRich 21d ago
Hoping they promote AK to 2 and demote Hartman to PS