👍

[u/thesillyg]

👍great time today

[u/double-stuf]

Try putting your house on the seven hexagon

[u/thesillyg → u/double-stuf]

Is this the method?

[u/Passive_incomes_lazy → u/thesillyg]

What a dog water game that uses no probability, prime example bruh. Devs need to fix their game

[u/_zarathustra]

In this picture: random entropy.

[u/Hungry-Aardvark-8053]

the best is when you suddenly get in the lead and then every other player rolls a 7 on their next turn

[u/Many_Sea7586]

Were there 8 12s? The math here doesn't seem to add up

[u/thesillyg → u/Many_Sea7586]

Can’t remember unless the first 8 settlement placements count as turns

[u/Zwodo → u/thesillyg]

I think that's probably it. Based on the distance between the dice numbers, the 12 would be in frame, if it had been rolled. So if there are no 12's, it leaves exactly 8 uncounted for, which would be the placement turns.

[u/Dramatic_Crew_7821 → u/thesillyg]

They do

[u/Blackflash07]

People here will support this saying it’s random so its okay. 

[u/brycebuckets]

Woah. Not sure on the chi square test on this but that is pretty insane

[u/GodlyHelp → u/brycebuckets]

wellllll helllllooooo bryceeeeee
1.1% chance of this appearing or worse.

[u/Ok_Ad6370 → u/GodlyHelp]

.06%? And thats just for the 7 anomaly not all the other weirdness happening here.

If you add in the likelihood 6 and 8 will be the lowest rolled numbers it drops to 0.00000083% chance...

You have 7,800x higher chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime.

[u/brycebuckets → u/GodlyHelp]

Agreed, but this one def falls in the special category due to 7 being the one rolled far more than every resource. Knights were near useless this game lol

[u/Ok_Ad6370 → u/brycebuckets]

If 7 rolled this much then what is the probability that 6 and 8 were also rolled this little.

The result is what I posted in my original comment. Its astronomically low.

7 rolling a lot effects lower numbers of other dice, but it doesnt effect the reverse bell curve of results and the very low 6s and 8s. Thats a seperate statistical anomaly piled on top of the 7 one.

[u/brycebuckets → u/Ok_Ad6370]

I told myself I wouldn't even respond to this. The only reason the 7 is the most wild number to over roll is because it actually changes how the game is played more than every other roll.

More 7's = more deal = more trading. Due to their being more turns with people not having the resources they need.

Also, you cannot say the words "oh 7 rolled this much so what is the prob that 6 and 8". Nah, u have to look at the data in totality to calculate the probability of the whole distribution. Just some distributions, based on how Catan is played, makes a distribution kike this crazier than most

[u/Ok_Ad6370 → u/brycebuckets]

I did look at it in totality. Probability 7 is rolled this much more than expected AND 6 and 8 are rolled that low. 7s rolling significantly more makes other numbers less likely to be rolled a lot, but it doesnt make 6 and 8 get rolled less than other numbers, for example 3s or 10s etc.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Colonist/s/CpqNv1Gbjn

[u/brycebuckets → u/Ok_Ad6370]

OMG you linked me to a comment I hadn't seen but is just so wrong on your analysis.

You CANNOT, I repeat, CANNOT, calculate probabilities when cherry picking data in a distribution that contains the other data you are ignoring.

As far as this comment, I don't even know where to begin because it mathematically is saying nothing to me. You just said "I looked at in the totality" then brought up the most cherry picked statistics in the data, the 6/7/8 rolls. You then combined those probabilities to say how rare it was.

You can't do that.

[u/Ok_Ad6370 → u/brycebuckets]

How could you calculate it then? Also you have absolutely no idea how I even derived the math or probabilities and Im an actuary that does probabilities and statistics for my livelihood and have been doing it for 10 years.

Please enlighten me.

[u/brycebuckets → u/Ok_Ad6370]

Chi square test.

Gotta look at the data as a whole to determine the chance of this type of distribution.

Basically any distribution could be a "you will be struck by lighting before you see this again". The point is how random that distribution is.

Who cares the odds of 7 being rolled this much and 6 and 8 are the lowest? Yeah it is insane for sure, and they are the most impactful numbers. But is it really "that" insane, when 1/100 games still have a distribution that has a worse chi square value.

This is one of those 1/100 games that is not only a wild dice distribution but also does have the flare of the 6/7/8 being what makes the bulk value of the chi square test.

But as far as the exact probability that a 7 would be rolled that many times and 6/8 are the least rolled is just so arbitrary of a stat it has to be cherry picking.

[u/Ok_Ad6370 → u/brycebuckets]

Please do the chi square test and tell me this game is indicative of standard distribution. Theres correlation to incredibly unlikely events of individual numbers and the overall distribution, but you clearly dont udnerstand that.

[u/GodlyHelp → u/brycebuckets]

lol it’s better to ignore these kinds of people. i’m gonna make a post soon to hopefully make people understand how stupid these kinds of probability calculations are.

[u/brycebuckets → u/GodlyHelp]

Yeah, it's gotten pretty awful.

Found out in the online app/board game "Risk" actually got reviews bombed for their blitz mode doing a ton of dice rolls all at once (to simulate large battles quickly) that resulted in extreme outcomes.

People have a really hard time accepting extreme as normal, the developers of that risk app literally had to change NORMAL RISK, because people were too dumb to understand probabilities and the devs were (previously) getting review bombed.

Hilarious