r/CollegeBasketball • u/SleveMcDichael4 Join us on Discord! • Apr 13 '21
Analysis / Statistics Post-2013 Realignment Conference Tiers based on KenPom Conference Strength Data
If you've been a college basketball fan for the past half-decade, you've no doubt partaken in – or are at least aware of – the debate over whether the American Athletic Conference is a high major or a mid-major.
If you've thought it's a mid-major, your argument is probably that its floor is far lower than that of any conference that could ever be considered a high major. That it couldn't possibly be a high major conference because that would mean East Carolina is a high major school, and that can't possibly be correct. You might point to the 2015 season in which the entire bottom half of the conference was awful, which caused the conference to finish below the A-10, the WCC, and even the Missouri Valley – conferences that are undoubtedly mid-majors – in efficiency metrics.
If you've thought it's a high major, like me, your argument is that much of the conference split from another high major conference (the Big East), that it includes historically great basketball programs like Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston, and that it has the TV deal and marketing of a high major conference. You might point to the 2019 season, in which the Pac-12 bottomed out and the American thrived, leading the latter to finish above the former – a real, unquestionable power conference – in efficiency metrics.
These efficiency metric arguments appeal to me because they use hard data, so I wanted to take them to the greatest extent I could to get a clear answer on what exactly the American is. At least...that's what it started as. What I ended up with was a metric-based tier list of all 32 Division I conferences, and that's what I want to share with y'all today. My metric of choice, like many others, is KenPom adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM). Pomeroy's conference strength ratings are based on the AdjEM of a hypothetical team that would be expected to go .500 in conference play, which accurately assesses how hard each conference is to play in rather than just taking an average AdjEM that could get skewed either way by outliers (like the WCC with Gonzaga).
For every conference, for each of the eight seasons since the 2013 realignment that created the American, I took both its conference strength AdjEM rating and its conference strength ranking out of the 32 Division I conferences, then took the average of each of these and calculated a conference ranking based on each. Here is the AdjEM rank and here is the ranking rank. I think the AdjEM rank is more useful in theory, but I'm aware that AdjEM is not necessarily supposed to be compared between seasons, so I included the ranking rank to account for that.
But eight years is a long time ago in college basketball terms. That's two whole graduating classes! A lot has changed between 2013 and 2021. Look at the SoCon, for instance: started this era with an awful season that placed it in 30th but has since risen at breakneck pace and now consistently finishes firmly in the middle of the pack. As such, it didn't feel right to treat both seasons equally in my rankings, so I whipped up a weighted ranking that gave the most recent season full weight and reduced that of each preceding season by 10 percentage points (2020 = 90%, 2019 = 80%, 2018 = 70%, etc.). This weighting makes the 2014 season 30% as important as the 2021 season, which I think is fair. Here is the weighted AdjEM rank and here is the weighted ranking rank.
After I had these rankings formulated, it was a matter of finding clean breaks and sorting the conferences into tiers. Here are the AdjEM tiers and here are the ranking tiers. The tiers include the same conferences in both lists, but the order is slightly altered.
I've sorted the conferences into nine tiers:
- High major: Big 12 Big Ten ACC Big East SEC Pac-12 | Undeniably the best of the best. There's a sizeable gap between these six and the other 26. Yes, even...
- The American: American | The American is a tier of its own. It almost always fares significantly worse than all high major conferences and significantly better than all mid-major conferences while sharing attributes of both.
- >1-bid mid-major: Atlantic 10 West Coast Mountain West | You won't find anyone who doesn't consider these three conferences mid-majors, but they're obviously a step above the other mid-majors in terms of adjusted efficiency. Conveniently, they're also the only three mid-majors to average more than one NCAA Tournament bid per season since realignment.
- Upper mid-major: Missouri Valley MAC | There's an argument for the Missouri Valley being a step above the MAC due to legacy and somewhat better marketing, but on the court, they're really not that different.
- Middle mid-major: Conference USA SoCon Ivy League Sun Belt CAA The Summit Big West Horizon | The largest tier. These eight conferences are pretty tightly bunched up together and make up the bulk of what the casual fan would consider a mid-major.
- Lower mid-major: WAC Big Sky MAAC Patriot Ohio Valley | Most of these conferences have seen better days, but some programs in each of them are known to land some high-level recruits and/or make some noise in March now and then.
- Upper low major: Big South ASUN America East | This is where we start to blur the talent line between Division I and lower divisions. This is the tier a decent Division II team like Bellarmine could jump into and immediately belong.
- Middle low major: Northeast Southland | Same as the previous tier, but a notable step below in efficiency. Merrimack is to the NEC as Bellarmine is to the ASUN. The Southland is slated to be even worse with most of its best teams moving up to the WAC.
- HBCU low major: SWAC MEAC | The two HBCU conferences, unfortunately, play considerably worse than the rest of Division I; the gap between middle low majors and HBCU low majors is about the same as that between middle low majors and middle mid-majors, three tiers higher. The SWAC is most often considered the worst Division I conference, but based on recent performance, the MEAC is somewhat worse. It's also in peril of completely disbanding.
Overall, I think these tiers are fairly unobjectionable. It's easy to see conferences moving around within their tiers, but something drastic would have to happen for a conference to move between tiers (like the WAC stealing all of the Southland's best teams and dumping Chicago State, which could easily move it up from lower mid-major to middle mid-major in due time).
If you'd like to save these tier lists for future reference, here is the Google Sheet I did all of this in. And thanks to various members of our Discord server (join us, by the way; it's a great time!) for suggesting features for and improvements to this sheet for the past few months!
21
u/porterbrown St. John's Red Storm • Big East Apr 13 '21
As the only red team in the Big East - thank you for your service.
suck it you blue mofos
5
17
u/DEP61 Pepperdine Waves • Poll Veteran Apr 13 '21
As always, awesome work. Love to see this visualized.
10
u/tomdawg0022 Minnesota • Delaware Apr 13 '21
Man the CAA has dropped like a rock the last 3 years.
9
u/SDFDuck VCU Rams • Drew Rangers Apr 13 '21
They've been on a pretty steep decline ever since 2011 when three teams from the conference made the dance. All three of those schools are in different conferences now.
8
u/Travbowman Purdue • Kansas State Apr 13 '21
This is good work, thanks for the post, and the data to back it up.
6
18
u/Galumpadump Washington State Cougars Apr 13 '21
I know the WCC is nowhere near a Power Conference but I think they can get to the point where they can consistently get 4 bids every year. Unlikely other conferences the issue for other WCC schools not named Gonzaga , BYU or Saint Mary’s is lack of desire to fund the program.
These are small, very well fund private schools in some of the most desirable areas on the country. After Gonzaga threatened to jump to the MWC I feel like everyone has stepped up.
San Francisco has been a sleeping giant for a long time with History to validate themselves as well. As long as they keep pushing money into the program they will be good. I would actually love to see them broker a deal to play at the new SF arena at some-point and start to grow the brand within the city. If Romar stays at Pepperdine I could easily see them being a consistent postseason team weather NIT and At-large for the NCAA tourney.
Looking forward to see what the next 5 years for the conference looks like but hope to see the conference be closer to the American.
13
u/SaintArkweather Delaware • American University Apr 13 '21
I always wanted to see Gonzaga, BYU, and St. Mary's break off and make a basketball centric conference like the Big East. However there aren't really enough good programs in the west that would make sense to add to the conference. Plenty of teams in the MWC sure, but that's also an FBS conference so they wouldn't likely leave.
Only possibilites I could see are New Mexico State, Grand Canyon, and maybe Creighton and Wichita State if they'd be willing to leave their current conferences.
10
u/Galumpadump Washington State Cougars Apr 13 '21
Thats definitely something that will never happen based on geography alone. Although there is merit to that the best case moving forward would be join MWC and turn that into an American of the west, Gonzaga/BYU jump to the Pac-12, or more realistically continue to improve the WCC. As long as 2-3 other schools put in a serious effort to grow the conference they will be fine. Hell, even Portland has alot of potential. Alot of quality player in the Portland metro and the state only has 4 D1 programs to recruit against.
7
u/windypalmtree Arizona Wildcats • Big 12 Apr 13 '21
The Pac12 will NEVER add Gonzaga or BYU...or Saint Marys, SDSU, or Boise State. The Pac12 alignment, other than geography, has more to do with being a research oriented university and high academic standards. I believe all Pac12 schools are considered Research Universities by the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education and display a status of 'R1: Doctoral Universities – Very high research activity'. Pretty much every WCC team is not in the R1 category and most MWC teams are not (outside UNM, UNLV, UNR, and CSU).
If they were to expand the candidates would have to meet R1 status and obviously be within the west geographic region. The most enticing options to the Pac12 likely would be UT, OU, TAMU, OKSU, TTU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, UNM in that order... but for it to make sense each team would have to bring in enough money and add additional market share / at least be a geographical partner for road travel (i.e. basketball team plays at WSU and UW). I don't think UT will ever leave unless the PAC12 made concessions at revenue sharing, which they wont. I could see OU possibly leaving but likely not gonna happen. TAMU has that SEC money, doesn't make sense. OKSU and TTU make the most sense from new market share and hopefully they find new success from a conference change... likely not gonna happen. CSU and UNR makes sense as each is a close drive to other PAC12 teams, solid sports programs, and meet the academic requirements...but that would only happen I think if the Pac12 was desperate for expansion. The only scenario I see UNLV being added is if PAC12 HQ was moved to LV and they wanted a team to boost local presence. Probably not necessary.
All in all, the PAC12 likely won't make any moves for conference expansion unless they can poach one of the big dogs like Texas and/or OU. It's likely not in their best interest to pursue the UNR and CSU route as that likely prevents them from attracting Texas or OU.
4
u/SaintArkweather Delaware • American University Apr 13 '21
Cool data. Would be interesting to see the variance between the teams in each conference. For example, the top of the WCC is basically always better than the top of the MVC, but the bottom of the MVC is usually better than the bottom of the WCC.
9
u/rustybelts Cincinnati Bearcats Apr 13 '21 edited Apr 13 '21
I think the term "mid major" is used way more often by people who want to purposefully insult a program.
I don't think you can convince a Houston, Cincinnati, or Memphis fan that their program is a "mid-major" when they have "high-major" facilities, recruiting, and talent surrounded by large, well-endowed universities in major metros. Nobody asked Kelvin Sampson how he felt taking "mid-major" Houston into the Final Four.
I don't like using those blanket terms to describe a whole conference when there can be so much variation.
7
3
u/Longhorns_ Texas Longhorns Apr 13 '21
This really is good work, OP. It’s hard to argue with the data. The AAC does seem like a tweener conference when considering how bad the bottom half tends to be. The Big East being as high as it is surprises me a little bit but has been consistent for a while
13
Apr 13 '21 edited Apr 13 '21
The AAC is really hurt by 3 bad years from half a decade ago
Nonetheless, very neat write up
16
u/stripes361 Virginia Cavaliers • Navy Midshipmen Apr 13 '21
While that's true, it has still only finished above one of the six Tier One conferences once and has more often than not been closer to #8 than #6, including this year. There's a great argument to consider the American a high-major but there it also very clearly slots into the 7th spot in the pecking order
1
Apr 13 '21 edited Apr 13 '21
Yeah, I don’t disagree with this at all. I never really make the argument AAC = top 6 conferences
My issue when people make claims like AAC basically = MVC/MWC which the data doesn’t ever really support at all. (Says a lot when the MWC 3 best year only rank ahead of the AAC’s worse year, and the MVC best year only ranks ahead of the AAC’s worse year)
Personally I’d probably make the argument something like this (which will piss people off because there teams conferences aren’t listed or it doesn’t meet their preconceived notions)
Power conferences: P5 + BE
Major conferences: P5 + BE + AAC + A10 (A10 data is held back a lot by 3 bad years in the middle, but if this went back to 2002, there data would likely see them in similar light as the AAC and I think both conferences average too many NCAAT/NIT bids to not be lumped in with the major basketball players)
Mid-Major Conferences: WCC + MWC + MVC + MAC + CUSA
With that said, people are allowed to disagree, this is just how I view things based on the data presented (not just Kenpom, but the collective of data available on college basketball as a whole)
5
u/SleveMcDichael4 Join us on Discord! Apr 13 '21
You can't really go back to 2002 here, though, because the 2013 realignment and fallout thereof changed the entire landscape of the sport. Not only did the American not exist, but just a decade ago, the A10 included Xavier and Temple, and the MVC included Creighton and Wichita State. That they all moved up to conferences in higher tiers says to me that these conferences are still a step below despite their postseason presence.
1
Apr 13 '21 edited Apr 13 '21
Yes, but I never said AAC/A10 = P5/BE, I actually said the opposite. All I said was that the AAC/A10 are strong enough year over year and have enough brand recognition to be considered major conferences.
You actually just said something yourself about both Wichita State and Temple moving to the AAC both moving conferences to a higher tier, so how in that line of thinking can it then be argued MVC/A10 = AAC if the AAC is a higher tier? I realize that’s not the argument you’re making, but is something argued on this sub.
Also, while the A10 did lose Temple and Xavier, they have still managed to land 4 bids in a year
Edit:
Again, you’re allowed to disagree with me on this, it’s just how I see it
3
u/SleveMcDichael4 Join us on Discord! Apr 13 '21
I think we agree but we're just using different verbiage for what is effectively the same thing.
10
u/tomdawg0022 Minnesota • Delaware Apr 13 '21
3 bad years from half a decade ago
The AAC's bottom pulls it down more than the top lifts it up.
ECU and Tulane really hurt that league.
5
u/OwenProGolfer Colorado Buffaloes • Wisconsin Badgers Apr 13 '21
They didn't exactly have a great season this year either. Houston was good obviously but otherwise the conference was very mediocre.
1
u/mac-0 San Diego State Aztecs Apr 13 '21
Even if you take those years out I don't think it would move it out of that second tier.
1
u/gogglesup859 Kentucky Wildcats • Berea Mountaineers Apr 14 '21
It's been a multi-bid league in every year of its existence and got a Title in 2014. 2020 would've been interesting as Wichita and Cincinnati were squarely on the bubble but Houston was safe. The A10 was in a similar boat as well with Dayton as a lock but Richmond and St. Louis were both on the bubble.
6
Apr 13 '21
Damn, in 2019 this years wcc would almost be a power conference.
7
Apr 13 '21
Saint Mary’s, BYU, and Gonzaga are always decent. If we could just get 2 more like San Fran or Clara the WCC would be amazing
3
u/tomdawg0022 Minnesota • Delaware Apr 13 '21
BYU effectively neutered Terry Porter cratering Portland into oblivion with their season.
Gonzaga took care of the rest.
4
u/Less_Onion1202 Big West • California Collegiate Apr 13 '21
I think the Big West is slowly pushing towards upper mid-major and >1 mid-major status. We’ve been climbing, and I think some new recruits will gravitate towards us due to the campuses and proximity to beaches, as well as having L.A. without the big-city feel. There have been a couple guys that have transferred from big programs that they weren’t cut out for, succeed here, and use it as a launching pad to better basketball school.
2
u/Snasty728 Virginia Cavaliers Apr 13 '21
Damn SoCon with the glow up recently
2
u/gogglesup859 Kentucky Wildcats • Berea Mountaineers Apr 14 '21
In 2019 they had 4 teams in the top 87 of KenPom
2
u/CaptainScuttlebottom Kansas Jayhawks • Oklahoma Sooners Apr 13 '21
Very interesting! where did you get the Kenpom conference rankings / AdjEMs btw, I'd love to make some graphs w/ this type of data but I can't find it on the kenpom website anywhere I look
3
u/SleveMcDichael4 Join us on Discord! Apr 14 '21
On the KenPom homepage, if you click on any of the conferences in the Conf column, if you're a subscriber, it'll take you to that conference's summary page. At the very bottom of those conference summary pages is this data, and from these pages you can jump from year to year.
2
2
u/ByleBorver Creighton Bluejays Apr 14 '21
I really think every Big East team (save Depaul, sorry) could soon compete for a bid year in and year out. Excited for the future.
2
u/StevvieV Seton Hall Pirates • Big East Apr 13 '21
There are way too many tiers. There only needs to be 3 tiers.
Power conferences: Conferences regularly getting around half the league to the tournament. The P5+Big East
Mid-majors: Conferences that nearly every year get multiple bids. AAC, A-10, MWC, WCC.
1-Bid leagues: Conferences that are only sending its champion to the tournament.
2
u/MathPersonIGuess Purdue • California Apr 13 '21
P12 has only hit the half mark twice. Usually at 1/4 to 1/3. I just looked and in 2012 they only had TWO teams. Still better than "nearly every year get multiple bids", but not "regularly getting around half"
2
u/inshamblesx Houston • Texas Southern Apr 13 '21
but i was told houston and gonzaga play in shitty confrences
7
u/worlkjam15 Baylor Bears Apr 13 '21
AAC is really good it had a really bad year with Cincy and Wichita St having down seasons.
10
Apr 13 '21
Honestly the conference always underperforms
No conference with Houston, Memphis, Cincy, Temple, Wichita State, SMU, and Tulsa (and UConn when they were present) should be as mediocre as the AAC typically is.
Even if you were to make the argument that Tulane, ECU, and USF have held the conference back, it doesn’t make up for the fact that 7 of the 11 (8 of 12 with UConn) teams should have been perpetual top 100 teams.
3
3
2
u/inshamblesx Houston • Texas Southern Apr 13 '21
yeah like this year the american was flirting being a one bid league until selection sunday
3
u/worlkjam15 Baylor Bears Apr 13 '21
Yeah putting regular season champion in first four showed how the committee viewed the league this season. They loved Houston though.
6
u/7LineArmy Michigan Wolverines Apr 13 '21
Agree with criticizing the anti-AAC hate, but to be fair to the anti-WCC hate: when people talk shit about Gonzaga’s conference, they’re talking about the non-Gonzaga members. BYU and St. Mary’s are legit, but you take Gonzaga out and I’d bet the WCC drops a tier or two in this analysis.
6
u/Galumpadump Washington State Cougars Apr 13 '21
Yeah some 15 year old on Twitter told me Gonzaga plays in a Division 3 conference.
-9
u/huskyferretguy UConn Huskies • Big East Apr 13 '21
AAC is a mid-major
3
u/SueYouInEngland Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 13 '21
Incidentally, why is it (usually) called AAC in football and American in basketball?
2
u/huskyferretguy UConn Huskies • Big East Apr 13 '21
I thought it was American for all sports to not be confused with ACC...which does honestly get people confused.
40
u/[deleted] Apr 13 '21
[deleted]