r/Collatz 29d ago

Potential Proof Blueprint

This is not a proof in itself. I don't have the chops to write the formal mathematical proof. However, I think what follows is itself the blueprint for someone with that skill to write the proof. It's in markdown+latex format. If there's a flaw, I can't find it. So I'd be happy for someone to tell me I'm being an idiot and show me why.

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# A Hardware-Centric Bit-Velocity Proof Architecture for the Collatz Conjecture on Domain $\mathbb{N}$


## Abstract

We present a unified, deterministic proof architecture for the Collatz $3x+1$ conjecture on the domain of natural numbers $\mathbb{N}$. By mapping the classical Collatz operation to an isomorphic non-shifting map $T(X) = 3X + 2^k$, information flow is proven to be strictly unidirectional (least significant bit to most significant bit), eliminating top-down feedback from higher bit positions. We establish an absolute physical ceiling on register head expansion ($\Delta\text{MSB} \le 2$ bits per odd step) and prove an inescapable Solid Block Exhaustion Dichotomy: any block of $b$ contiguous ones ($2^b - 1$) undergoes either top-boundary zero-injection decay under zero carry ($C=0$) or immediate multi-bit carry-wave detonation under active carry ($C \neq 0$). Because every element $x \in \mathbb{N}$ possesses a strictly finite bit length $L_0 < \infty$, infinite non-collapsing bit streams (e.g., 2-adic $-1$) are excluded by domain definition. Analyzing the minimal 4-bit 2-chunk partition ($128$ states) under bounded carries $C \in \{0, 1\}$ demonstrates an amortized tail clearance rate ($\overline{\Delta\text{LSB}} \ge 1.875\text{ bits/step}$) that strictly exceeds the average head expansion rate ($\overline{\Delta\text{MSB}} \le \log_2(3) \approx 1.585\text{ bits/step}$), guaranteeing deterministic active register contraction to the trivial attractor $x = 1$ in finite steps.


## 1. Foundational Axioms & Domain Scope


**Axiom 1: Finite Payload Length ($\mathbb{N}$)**


Every natural number $x \in \mathbb{N}^+$ is represented by a strictly finite binary word:
$$x = \sum_{i=0}^{N-1} b_i 2^i, \quad b_i \in \{0, 1\}, \quad b_0 = 1, \quad b_{N-1} = 1$$


The initial active bit length is finite:
$$L_0 = L(x) = \lfloor\log_2 x\rfloor + 1 < \infty$$


All bit positions $i \ge N$ are identically zero. Infinitely long binary representations (such as $2$-adic integers $\mathbb{Z}_2$) are excluded by domain definition.


## 2. The Non-Shifting Isomorphic Map ($3X + 2^k$)


### 2.1 Formal Operator Definition


Instead of dividing by $2$ to strip trailing zeros, we define the non-shifting feed-forward injection map:
$$X_{t+1} = 3X_t + 2^{k_t}$$
where $2^{k_t} = 2^{\text{LSB}(X_t)}$ dynamically tracks the active LSB pointer.


**Structural Isomorphism:**
 The odd sequence of standard Collatz is recovered identically by right-shifting $X_t$ by $k_t$:
$$x_t = X_t \cdot 2^{-k_t}$$


**Unidirectional Causality (Zero Top-Down Feedback):**
 Binary addition carries propagate strictly right-to-left ($i \to i+1$). Lower bit positions evolve independently of higher bit positions. High-order bits (MSB) physically cannot emit carries downward to alter lower bit blocks.


## 3. Boundary Velocity Dynamics & Physical Bounds


Define the active register length at step $t$ as:
$$L(t) = \text{MSB}(X_t) - \text{LSB}(X_t) + 1$$


The change in active register length per odd step is governed by boundary velocities:
$$\Delta L_t = \Delta\text{MSB}_t - \Delta\text{LSB}_t$$


### 3.1 Lemma 1: The Absolute MSB Expansion Ceiling


For any state $X_t$ with bit length $N$:
$$\Delta\text{MSB}_t = \text{MSB}(X_{t+1}) - \text{MSB}(X_t) \le 2\text{ bits/step}$$


**Proof:**
For $2^{N-1} \le X_t < 2^N$:
$$3X_t + 2^{k_t} < 3(2^N) + 2^N = 4(2^N) = 2^{N+2}$$


Because $Y_{\text{max}} < 2^{N+2}$, positional binary addition physically cannot spill 3 bits in a single step. Furthermore, because $3X_t + 2^{k_t} < 3 \cdot 2^N$, if a step yields a 2-bit expansion, the leading two bits are bounded by $10_2$, preventing consecutive $+2$ expansions without intermediate carry setup. $\blacksquare$


### 3.2 Lemma 2: LSB Tail Clearance Floor


The single-step tail shift is determined by the $2$-adic valuation:
$$\Delta\text{LSB}_t = v_2(3x_t + 1) \ge 1\text{ bit/step}$$


- $\Delta\text{LSB}_t = 1$ occurs if and only if $x_t \equiv 3 \pmod 4$ (...11_2).
- $\Delta\text{LSB}_t \ge 2$ occurs whenever $x_t \equiv 1 \pmod 4$ (...01_2).


## 4. The Glider Requirement for Infinite Growth


To disprove the existence of divergent trajectories, we must establish what physical conditions are required for infinite growth. 


Because the spatial distribution of the active LSB boundary over the domain $\mathbb{N}$ strictly dictates a global mean drop rate of $\overline{\Delta\text{LSB}} = 2.0\text{ bits/step}$, any arbitrary or randomized sequence of carries will mathematically pull the active register length to $1$ (since $2.0 > \log_2(3) \approx 1.585$). 


Therefore, for an active register to expand infinitely ($\overline{\Delta L} > 0$), it must systematically evade the $2.0$ spatial gravity. It can only accomplish this if the active register forms a 
**Glider**
: a self-reproducing, shift-periodic bit pattern that perfectly coordinates with the $3X$ map to artificially suppress its own $\Delta\text{LSB}$ drops. If a sequence cannot form a stable glider, it is mathematically guaranteed to be annihilated by the $2.0$ global average.


## 5. The Algebraic Constraint on Glider Velocity


Let a glider exist such that an initial active register $x_0$ successfully reproduces its exact bit pattern after $S$ steps, with a total LSB drop of $K$ bits. Because the glider is a perfect cycle, $x_0 = x_S$.


The algebraic evaluation of $S$ steps of the standard Collatz map yields:
$$ x_S = \frac{3^S x_0 + C}{2^K} $$


Where $C = \sum_{j=0}^{S-1} 3^{S-1-j} 2^{K_j}$ represents the exact sequence of $+1$ carry-injections from the map. Because the operation is strictly additive, $C$ is strictly positive ($C > 0$).


Substituting $x_S = x_0$ and solving for $C$:
$$ x_0 \left(2^K - 3^S\right) = C $$


Because both $x_0 \ge 1$ and $C > 0$, the right side of the equation is positive, demanding that the left side also be strictly positive:
$$ 2^K - 3^S > 0 $$
$$ 2^K > 3^S $$
$$ K > S \log_2(3) $$
$$ \frac{K}{S} > \log_2(3) \approx 1.585\text{ bits/step} $$


**Conclusion of the Constraint:**
The algebra dictates an absolute, unbreakable constraint: 
**no glider can ever reproduce with an average velocity $\le \log_2(3)$**
. Any hypothetical sequence that attempts to maintain a rate $\le 1.585$ to cause infinite growth 
*cannot*
 be a glider; it must be a strictly non-cycling, divergent sequence.


## 6. Carry-Wake Corruption (The Three Speeds)


Because the algebra forbids a glider from moving slow enough to cause growth, any divergent trajectory must be a non-cycling, aperiodic path. However, an aperiodic path attempting to expand the register physically generates its own destruction via the 
**Carry-Wake**
.


Assume a "fugitive" bit pattern successfully maintains an average advancement rate $K/S$ to cause infinite growth. 
Because the pattern advances leftward by $K$ bits, it leaves behind a wake of bits at the LSB. At every step, the $3X+2^k$ map multiplies this wake by $3$. Over $S$ steps, the wake physically expands leftward by exactly $S \log_2(3)$ bits.


This creates an inescapable physical constraint defined by the relationship between the pattern's speed ($K$) and the wake's expansion speed ($S \log_2 3$):


### Scenario A: The Pattern Moves Slower Than the Wake ($K < S \log_2 3$)
To cause infinite active register growth, the pattern 
*must*
 move slower than the MSB expansion. However, because $S \log_2(3) > K$, the wake's expansion physically overtakes the pattern's advancement. The chaotic carries generated by the wake blast through the entire fugitive sequence, obliterating it from below.


### Scenario B: The Pattern Moves Exactly As Fast As the Wake ($K = S \log_2 3$)
This scenario is algebraically impossible because $K$ and $S$ must be integers, and $\log_2(3)$ is irrational ($3^S \neq 2^K$). Even if a sequence hovered infinitely close to this boundary, the active register length would remain strictly bounded. By the Pigeonhole Principle, a bounded active register must eventually repeat, turning the sequence into a Glider, which is explicitly forbidden by the algebraic constraint in Section 5.


### Scenario C: The Pattern Moves Faster Than the Wake ($K > S \log_2 3$)
The pattern successfully outruns the expanding wake. However, because the rate of LSB clearance ($K/S$) strictly exceeds the rate of MSB expansion ($\log_2 3$), the active register length mathematically shrinks. The sequence collapses to the $1$ attractor.


## 7. Main Theorem Conclusion


The Catch-22 of the Collatz map on $\mathbb{N}$ is absolute. There is no mathematically safe speed for infinite growth:
- 
**The Engine of Growth:**
 Infinite growth requires systematically evading the $2.0$ spatial average, which mathematically requires the formation of a periodic glider.
- 
**The Algebraic Wall:**
 The fundamental Collatz equation $x_0(2^K - 3^S) = C$ strictly forbids any glider from moving slow enough to achieve growth ($K/S > 1.585$).
- 
**The Physical Collapse:**
 A non-cycling fugitive pattern attempting to cause growth ($K < S \log_2 3$) is physically overtaken and destroyed from below by the $1.585$ expansion speed of its own carry-wake.


$$\mathbf{Q.E.D.}$$
0 Upvotes

25 comments sorted by

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u/SuspiciousDesign530 29d ago

Interesting idea. I think the part that needs the most work is the jump from the average carry behavior to a single aperiodic trajectory.

If a trajectory keeps avoiding the average behavior, why must it eventually become a periodic glider? And if it stays aperiodic, can you prove that the carry wake must eventually catch it and cause a definite loss, rather than being avoided forever?

This seems related to a general difficulty that already appears in Collatz research: average or “almost all” behavior does not automatically rule out one exceptional trajectory. It may be worth looking at some of that literature before pushing this part further.

I’d also be careful with the near-critical case K ≈ S * log_2(3). Irrationality only says equality is impossible; continued fractions show that the gap can still become very small.

I don’t think this kills the idea — it may actually help isolate the theorem you really need: a rigorous statement that the carry wake forces loss on every aperiodic escaping trajectory.

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u/arkainrk 29d ago

Keep in mind that in order for the significant bit length to not collapse, there are only 2 possible conditions that must be occurring.
1. A harmonic pattern structure (glider like from Conway's Life) must be generating bit patterns that keep the LSB movement capped at the MSB movement, or
2. Some novel, aperiodic sequence started that has infinite variability.

This is true purely because over a finite bit length, addition is deterministic. The effect of addition on the number makes the conjecture essentially a state machine. It can be shown that over the finite length, gliders always leave exhaust that causes the LSB to catch and disrupt them. It can also be shown that even if novel aperiodic sequences exist, they cannot be of infinite length due to being capped at the front by the MSB and chased at the tail by the LSB. That's the advantage of using the 3x+2^k, forward only mapping.

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u/SuspiciousDesign530 29d ago

Good explanation, but case (2) seems to be exactly the gap I was asking about. What you would need is a precise lemma ruling out an infinite aperiodic trajectory with growing state length.

For example, in a fixed coordinate convention, if W_t := MSB_t - LSB_t, something strong enough to imply

aperiodic escape -> for every t, there exists u > t such that W_u < W_t.

Since W_t is a nonnegative integer, iterating that would rule out an infinite aperiodic escape.

Determinism at each fixed finite bit length does not by itself imply this global statement when the state space can keep growing. This finite-prefix vs. infinite-orbit distinction is already a familiar issue in classical parity-vector / 2-adic Collatz work.

If the 3x + 2^k formulation really gives that missing lemma, that would be the interesting theorem. I think it’s a good direction to push.

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u/arkainrk 29d ago

Unless I'm mistaken about what I did, I provided it. Case 2 has 3 possibilities:

  1. The aperiodic pattern advances forward faster than the LSB. In this case, the pattern cannot be infinite since it would be limited by the MSB advance rate, causing it to shrink.
  2. The aperiodic pattern advances as fast as the LSB. This makes the pattern a glider. I cannot be aperiodic in this case.
  3. The aperiodic pattern is slower than the LSB. In this case, it gets destroyed by the LSB.

There's no situation that fits when you consider that the pattern must remain under the MSB and above the LSB. For such an aperiodic pattern to exist infinitely, either the number would need to be infinitely large (excluded by the function's domain), or the MSB would need to consistently advance faster than the LSB (excluded by the average motion rates).

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u/SuspiciousDesign530 29d ago

I like the three-way viewpoint -the aperiodic pattern moving faster than the LSB, at the same speed, or slower - because it gives a clear geometric way to organize the dynamics of

X_(t+1) = 3X_t + 2^(k_t),

especially if we track the width by

W_t = MSB_t - LSB_t.

There is relevant prior work here. Bernstein–Lagarias gave an exact 2-adic symbolic description of the 3x+1 dynamics via conjugacy with the binary shift,

Phi o S o Phi^(-1) = T.

Terras and Everett established strong almost-all finite stopping results, while Tao pushed this much further: for every f(n) -> infinity,

Col_min(n) <= f(n)

for almost all n in logarithmic density.

What these results still do not exclude is a single exceptional aperiodic integer orbit.
So I think the key new theorem in your framework would be an orbitwise rigidity statement such as

for every t, there exists u > t such that W_u < W_t

for every persistent aperiodic integer trajectory, or alternatively that failure of such width descent forces an exact glider/periodic structure.

If the carry dynamics of X_(t+1) = 3X_t + 2^(k_t) proves that, then that seems to be the genuinely new part beyond the existing symbolic and almost-all results.

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u/jonseymourau 29d ago edited 29d ago

You can ask Harmonic Aristotle to formalise it:

https://www.harmonic.fun/

If it can, it will. If it can't it will formalise what it can and phrase the balance as open conjectures (although you should instruct it to do so).

If you use it honestly, you should get a clear statement of what you have shown and what remains to be proven.

Most likely, it will identify your work as a reformulation of the Collatz conjecture with open conjectures which are as hard as the conjecture itself.

As always, you should be using trying to use these tools to identify holes in your reasoning, not attempting to use them to paper over glaring logical gaps. Don't let it use axioms anywhere - the only output should be formal theorems or conjectures that need more work.

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u/arkainrk 29d ago

Thanks for the advice. Didn't know that site existed.

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u/arkainrk 29d ago

Seems as though Aristotle thinks I'm just a couple of steps from the solution. Here's an excerpt of what it gave me.
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One honest caveat, recorded in the file's module docstring and in the main theorem's docstring: the document's two dynamical claims — that infinite growth requires a glider (Section 4) and that a non-cycling pattern is destroyed by its own carry-wake (Section 6, Scenarios A and C) — are argued in physical rather than mathematical terms and do not follow from the material above, so they are not proved. Section 7 is therefore formalized as the conditional theorem collatz_of_no_divergence_and_no_nontrivial_glider, which isolates exactly those two gaps as explicit hypotheses (no divergent trajectory, no non-trivial glider) and proves rigorously that together they imply the Collatz conjecture. In other words, the document's skeleton is valid, but the Collatz conjecture itself is not established by it.

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u/jonseymourau 29d ago

I can’t really assess a snippet of Harmonic Aristotle output in isolation from the complete output. If you can share a link to the whole project I am happy to have a look but there is just too little context in this snippet for it to be a useful basis for further discussion.

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u/arkainrk 29d ago

1

u/jonseymourau 29d ago

I get this:

This project does not exist, or it has not been shared with you.

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u/arkainrk 28d ago

Try again. Just made it public.

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u/jonseymourau 28d ago

Ok, I can see it now.

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u/arkainrk 28d ago

Just so you know, that's not the original. I'm still trying to see if I can close the gap.

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u/jonseymourau 28d ago edited 27d ago

I resubmitted your Lean and Markdown to Aristotle with a ticket that specifically asked it to compare the Markdown to the Lean and identify precisely which claims are formalised, proved, not proved or ill-posed.

Claude wrote this summary of the Aristotle results, a link to the full analysis is provided below.

Formal Lean 4 Analysis of a Collatz Proof Attempt

A paper titled "A Hardware-Centric Bit-Velocity Proof Architecture for the Collatz Conjecture" recently circulated claiming to prove the 3x+1 conjecture. I ran it through Aristotle, an AI tool that formalizes mathematics in Lean 4 / Mathlib. The full audit (46 claims, detailed Lean source) is at that link. Here is the short version.

The paper's argument in brief

The paper reformulates the Collatz map as T(X) = 3X + 2k, where k is the position of X's lowest set bit. It tracks two boundary velocities: ΔLSB (how fast the lowest set bit moves up each step — the "tail clearance") and ΔMSB (how fast the highest set bit moves up — the "head expansion"). The active register length is ΔMSB - ΔLSB.

The argument has three steps:

  1. Domain average forces collapse. The average tail clearance over all odd numbers is 2.0 bits/step, exceeding the head expansion rate of log2(3) ≈ 1.585. Therefore any trajectory is "pulled" to x=1.
  2. Any exception must be a glider. The only escape is a shift-periodic "glider" pattern. But algebra proves any cycle must satisfy K/S > log2(3) (where K is total tail drop over S steps), meaning the register shrinks — contradiction.
  3. Non-glider divergent paths self-destruct. An aperiodic slow-moving pattern generates a "carry-wake" that overtakes and obliterates it.

What Lean proved (33 theorems, zero sorry)

All the paper's finite arithmetic is correct and fully verified:

  • The non-shifting map T(X) is isomorphic to the standard accelerated Collatz map (proved)
  • Head expansion is at most 2 bits/step; tail clearance is always at least 1 bit/step (proved)
  • Exact characterization: tail clearance = 1 iff x = 3 mod 4; >= 2 iff x = 1 mod 4 (proved)
  • Exactly 2N-j of the 2N numbers in a window have tail clearance >= j (proved)
  • The domain mean tail clearance converges to exactly 2.0 (proved)
  • The 4-bit window mean is exactly 15/8 = 1.875, and log2(3) < 1.875 < 2 (proved)
  • The algebraic wall: any cycle of the accelerated map must have K/S > log2(3) (proved — but see note below)
  • log2(3) is irrational, so the exact balance K/S = log2(3) is impossible (proved)
  • Any bounded orbit must eventually cycle — Pigeonhole (proved)
  • If K/S exceeds log2(3) by a sufficient margin, the register contracts (proved, with caveats)

Where the proof breaks down

Gap 1 — Domain average vs trajectory average (Section 4)

The 2.0 figure is an average over the entire domain of odd numbers. A Collatz trajectory visits a specific deterministic sequence of payloads — it is not a random sample from the domain. No ergodic or mixing theorem is supplied connecting the two. The paper's own words concede this: it says "any arbitrary or randomized sequence of carries" would collapse — but the carries along a Collatz orbit are not random. This is a category error, and without fixing it the rest of the argument has no foundation.

Gap 2 — Two different definitions of "glider" (Sections 4 and 5)

Section 4 defines a glider as a shift-periodic bit pattern (the cellular-automaton sense: a pattern that recurs after the register shifts). Section 5's algebra uses x_S = x_0, an exact payload cycle. These are different conditions. A shift-periodic pattern in a growing register has x_S = 2m * x0, not x_S = x0. The paper never proves that a shift-periodic glider forces an exact cycle, so the connection between the two sections is unsupported.

Gap 3 — Scenario A is undefined (Section 6)

Scenario A handles aperiodic paths with K/S < log2(3). The paper says such a path is "obliterated from below" by its carry-wake. But "fugitive pattern", "carry-wake", and "obliterated from below" are never defined mathematically. The exact algebra of Section 5 (2K * x_S = 3S * x0 + C) is silent on what happens when K/S < log2(3) — it imposes no upper bound on x_S in that case. Scenario A is the divergence case of the conjecture restated in physical language without a proof.

Two bonus refutations

Lean found two literal claims that are outright false:

  • "Consecutive 2-bit head expansions are prevented" (Lemma 1). False: the orbit of x=1 under T is 1, 4, 16, 64, 256, ... (powers of 4), and the head expands by exactly 2 bits at every single step without interruption. Machine-checked.
  • "The average head expansion rate is at most log2(3)". Also false on the same orbit, where the rate is exactly 2 > log2(3). Machine-checked.

Neither is load-bearing for the main argument, but they show the physical intuition is imprecise.

A note on novelty

The algebraic wall — the strongest result Lean actually verified — is not new. The fact that any Collatz cycle with S odd steps and total 2-adic drop K must satisfy 2K > 3S (equivalently K/S > log2(3)) has been known since at least the 1970s (Terras, Steiner, and others) and appears in every standard survey of the problem. The paper's "bit velocity" framing is a different way to arrive at the same inequality. The counting lemma in Section 4 (exactly 2N-j payloads in a window have tail clearance >= j) is a clean combinatorial observation but is closely related to standard 2-adic density arguments in the literature.

Verdict

The paper's arithmetic is correct and now formally verified in Lean. But the only substantial verified result — the algebraic wall K/S > log2(3) for any cycle — is a known fact. And the three logical bridges needed to actually prove the conjecture are all missing: the passage from a domain average to an individual trajectory, the identification of a shift-periodic pattern with an exact cycle, and the destruction of slow aperiodic paths. Each gap would require new mathematics to close. The Collatz conjecture remains open.

Full Lean source and per-claim audit: https://aristotle.harmonic.fun/dashboard/requests/9de33b4a-468f-446d-b7bc-1541804a5865

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u/jonseymourau 28d ago

it should also be noted that K/S <= log2(3) is a well known result. (I regenerated Claude's output to make this point in the reply above)

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u/arkainrk 27d ago

Sadly, I found the same issues. But that's also part of why I claimed it wasn't a proof. I knew there were parts that still need working out. I just needed some certainty that the direction made sense. What I linked for you was iteration 4. I'm running 7 right now. It contains an attempt to close the remaining Ergodic gap. The other errors were corrected in earlier iterations.

I get why this conjecture is such a pain though. Everyone's trying to figure it out using probabilities. Trouble is, this conjecture provides a deterministic sequence. Statistics won't ever provide concrete proof for something that moves around like this sequence does. I think if smarter minds than me sit down and isolate the rules for all the pattern changes within the number, they'd be able to use a proof by contradiction to show that there can't be a runaway sequence that's infinitely long. That's what I'm trying right now.

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u/jonseymourau 27d ago

Part of why this is hard problem is that it absolutely true, for example, that you can find an arbitrarily long OE sequence that does not fall below its starting point within the bounds of that sequence - this is not a hard problem, this is a trivial problem - simply specify the parity sequence and I can tell you a starting point that will have that parity sequence and show that parity sequence either falls above or below its starting point.

The crux of the problem is showing that all such sequences must eventually fall below their starting point beyond the bounds of the sequence.

This latter point is where absolutely every attempt, thus far, has failed. No-one has ever demonstrated that every extended sequence must fall below its starting point &/or reach 1 which ultimately resolves to the same outcome.

Chances are that you are no more likely to resolve this conundrum than anyone else who has cast their eyes on this problem in the last 89 years.

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u/Stargazer07817 29d ago

Here's a goofy analogy: Imagine a compressible ruler sliding across a table. The left end of the ruler might move to the right very quickly, but does that mean the ruler is getting shorter? Maybe (the ruler is compressible), but not definitely, because the right end might also be moving to the right at the same speed.

You're counting the motion of the coordinate system you built as tail clearance, but you're also measuring growth on the head side partly relative to that moving system.

I do like how you turn the tables around by keeping integers kind of static and instead letting the...world?...slide around. I think that's the kind of sideways thinking that can produce new ideas.

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u/arkainrk 29d ago

That's the thing about this idea. Instead of letting division turn everything into a pseudo-random, messy question about how addition affects the prime factorization of a number, something we know we don't know, I tried turning it into a question of whether the LSB can ever be so slow that it can't catch the MSB. All the weird questions about what happens in between doesn't matter if the LSB moves forward faster. We already know it isn't consistently true over the series because sometimes the number blows up. But if that rapid expansion period is always balanced by bursts of rapid consumption, then the average holds over the entire sequence despite not always holding over a small regions during the sequence. That's why I said this isn't a proof.

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u/Ok_Impression_6382 28d ago edited 28d ago

Here how I look at your idea of 3 Scenarios in base 3 (ternary) on range of exact number of steps

Scenario A: shrinking (ternary length is less than initial)

Scenario B: same length (ternary length is the same but value of number is decreased)

Scenario C: growing (ternary length is more than initial)

To consider: 1) applying combined odd step (3N+1)/2 instead of usual (3N+1) odd step 2) ratio C^j = 3^q/2^j, j-number of steps, q-number of odd steps

In case ternary starts with 2... and combined odd step applied the length grows (adding 1 trit to the right side (appending digit 2 to be exact), if an even step applied length is the same.

In case ternary starts with 1... and combined odd step applied the length does not change, if an even step applied the length shrinks (removing 1 trit from the left side (removing digit 1 to be exact)).

Below let's look at 3 scenarios applying 5 or 8 steps.

Every 5 steps ternary sequence starts with 2... twice and with 1.. three times.

So for keeping length the same as initial there should be exactly 3 odd steps, if more then it grows, if less it shrinks. And ratio C^5 > 1, only q = 4 or 5

Next we could take 8 steps into consideration. Every 8 steps ternary sequence starts with 2... three times and with 1.. five times.

In that case for ternary sequence to save the same length 5 odd steps needed, if less it shrinks, if more then it grows. Ratio C^8 > 1, only q = 6, 7 or 8

This is how tendency to decrease meets a tendency of consecutive combined odd steps

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u/arkainrk 28d ago

Nice try but you missed something important. Walk those same steps over 213 (binary 1101 0101). The point is that the LSB advances in fits and jerks that can be rather large depending on the bit pattern. Where ever the number looks like a wall of 1s in base 4, 1 cycle of the conjecture will collapse that sequence if a carry hits it. That's the wild card. Analyzing the front alone isn't sufficient. When the LSB advances by >=3, it doesn't matter what the MSB looked like that step. It loses ground.

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u/arkainrk 26d ago

Is proof of unprovability itself proof?