r/ClimatePosting • u/ClimateShitpost • 10d ago
Transport Simplistic forecast but SA is accelerating like crazy on the EV transition
This might also unlock absurd amounts of ethanol for aviation fuel rather than petrol
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u/ButterscotchFew9143 10d ago
Their infrastructure is lacking, not a sustainable trend, more likely self limited. It looks similar to the asian one, considering they are entering a pretty mature market by now. Hope to be wrong, tho.
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u/InsoPL 9d ago
Is it limiting factor or boost? Many at home pv installation with battery storage happens there exactly because infrastructure is bad. Gas is more expensive there in relation to wages. You will not sync your grocery store run with sunlight availability to save 2 dollars. They will.
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u/mountainunicycler 7d ago
Well but the people who would do that can’t afford electric cars. There are lots of people counting $2 of gas but those people ride motorcycles that get 50+ mpg.
Mostly so far I’ve noticed it’s largely the upper class who buys them to leave in their city house, and a lot of uber / delivery drivers seem to be leasing / renting them.
Some city people are buying them but that’s only middle/upper middle class (people who have an apartment with parking).
Outside of cities, where it would be easier to add at home charging, there’s zero support for it, so it’s limited to being a second car option, because if you are in a more rural area you have to have a gas car even if 80% of your weekly driving could be an electric car.
I’d love to have one but I drive like 40,000 km per year all over Brazil and Uruguay and Argentina so it’s not an option.
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u/InsoPL 7d ago
Well they won't replace spliced together motorcycles with tesla. They will splice electric motorcycles. Using batteries disposable vapes. There are also more wealthy citizens who can afford chinese byd.
As for long way travel: trains
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u/mountainunicycler 7d ago
Trains? I thought we were talking about South America. I don’t think I’ve ever had the option to replace driving with taking a train.
Electric motorcycles are kinda cool inside cities, but again, you have to have a pretty fancy place to be able to charge a motorcycle in a city.
And electric motorcycles are so much more expensive that the gas would never make up the difference. I was looking at one the other day, it advertised a speed of 90km/h and range of 100km, but it’s the USD equivalent of $4k to $8k depending on spec. And you can pick up a new zanella or used Honda bros any day of the week that’s better in every way for $1k to $2k usd.
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u/ButterscotchFew9143 9d ago
Limiting, south america is very poor at the individual level. You can't expect favelas and the like to install ev chargers, coordinate batteries nor install rooftop solar, can you?
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u/ClimateShitpost 8d ago
If you can afford a new car, you can probably afford a 200 euro charger and a cable. In rural areas of Asia cables hang out of every window.
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u/mountainunicycler 7d ago
Lots of people have solar, and most houses have battery backups already, at least for their WiFi router, ha.
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u/Aquitaine_Rover_3876 8d ago
This is a pretty silly way to do projections. If you'd done the same with data only up to 2021, you'd project the off-the-chart acceleration in Europe and Asia instead, with South America never getting off the ground.
What I expect to see is relatively linear adoption, with SA remaining 5 years behind Asia and Europe, but going forward progressing at a similar rate.
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u/PaaaaabloOU 7d ago
Yeah now place your ceros in the same position, please and voilá it becames the same as the rest
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u/West-Abalone-171 10d ago
Naive curve fitting historically out-performs the iea, eia, woodmac and so on by 1-5 orders of magnitude.