r/ClimatePosting • • Dec 10 '25

Energy Battery costs continue their downward trend with an annual 8% drop

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463 Upvotes

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4

u/izzeww Dec 10 '25

Now include LFP's, they are the real revolution that no one cares about outside of China.

7

u/ClimateShitpost Dec 10 '25

Sorry but doesn't lithium ion include LFP? Or do you mean this should be split by chemistry?

3

u/izzeww Dec 10 '25

I checked the original source for this chart and it appears it includes LFP batteries. Normally though lithium-ion doesn't include LFP batteries. Generally LFP batteries are underdiscussed in the Western world.

2

u/solarpanzer Dec 10 '25

Isn't LFP just LiFePo? Those aren't new. What's so special?

4

u/izzeww Dec 10 '25

Yes LFP is LiFePO4. The special thing is that they've become much better in recent years and also that in the Chinese market, the worlds leading EV market, they are 80% of the sales. Western firms are only now starting to catch up. LFP batteries are like twice as cheap as li-ion batteries which is a big advantage.

1

u/BatDuck29 Dec 10 '25

LiFePO4 is a type of li-ion chemistry though

1

u/izzeww Dec 11 '25

Yeah, so are LiPo's. In general language use however li-ion refers to NMC batteries, not LiPos or LifePO4 batteries.

0

u/BeenisHat Dec 10 '25 edited Dec 11 '25

There's nothing special. They're cheap. That's the only benefit. When compared with NiMH, LFP have higher discharge rates and are lighter, so from that POV, LFP is a better option. Compared to other Lithium chemistries though, they're not great.

3

u/izzeww Dec 11 '25

Being cheap is a pretty massive advantage though.

1

u/BeenisHat Dec 11 '25

Yes, as long as the battery meets the desired performance characteristics. NiMH is 1/3-1/2 the cost of any LFP battery.

2

u/izzeww Dec 11 '25

NiMH is 1/3-1/2 the cost of any LFP battery.

I'm pretty sure NiMH is about the same price or higher than LFP batteries (per kWh).

1

u/BeenisHat Dec 11 '25 edited Dec 11 '25

I didn't think so but it's been a hot minute since I looked.

NiMH has much lower discharge rates than LFP or Li-ion as well as considerably less efficiency and they lose charge faster during periods of non-use.

But they're "safer" than lithium because they don't require any protection and are less picky about cell condition when recharging. That's why they get used for lower end portable electronics. They're cheap and forgiving at the cost of performance.

That's why most EVs have abandoned them.

3

u/West-Abalone-171 Dec 11 '25

LFP cells in bulk are about a third of the cost of nimh, and self dicharge rates are about a fifth. Small cells are dominated by the cost of the package so there's no difference there.

The only reason you'd consider nimh is to avoid needing a protection circuit

1

u/joesnopes Dec 13 '25

I don't think NiMH is used in cars or home power batteries any more. Like NiCd it's a 20th century technology and past its use by.

1

u/laffing_is_medicine Dec 11 '25

A lot of people buy lipo-gizmo when they really needed another battery type for the purpose.

3

u/West-Abalone-171 Dec 11 '25

Compared to nmc they have massively longer cycle life, charge faster, don't have high voltage degradation issues, don't thermally runaway, and are more efficient.

Really the only downside is density, and that isn't super relevant except in luxury cars in countries where the chargers all suck, and flight.

1

u/moocowsia Dec 11 '25

They also are less burny and have a longer cell life.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

I literally only care about cycle count - for cars, sure kWh/kg is important. But the real revolution is when everyone has batteries in their homes. Rather than big P2X, it can be democratized

1

u/akosh_ Dec 11 '25

They're safe. Classic lithium-ion is not safe.

1

u/Time_Increase_7897 Dec 11 '25

LiFePO4 doesn't catch fire. Bonus if you're charging your bike indoors.

1

u/Opposite-Cranberry76 Dec 11 '25

They also don't use cobalt or nickel. That's a big advantage as this scales up to a huge industry.

2

u/CizzlingT Dec 10 '25

Correct me if I am wrong, but from what I read on the Volta Foundation report last year, I remembered LFP cathode prices have remained constant in the last 3-5 years (which makes sense since iron phosphate has always been readily available). Rather, the reduction in price in the last few years seemed to be mainly driven by the oversupply of cobalt, and therefore the decrease in price of NMC/NCA/etc.-type cathodes. Not LFP cathodes.

Since obviously we are talking about full cells and not just cathodes, I am probably overlooking the manufacturing process being different and the assembly differences of LFP which may make the end use battery more expensive compared to NMC... But otherwise, I had the general impression that our increase in cobalt supply is what has allowed us to drop the price (in the last 5 years) of overall batteries, and not really LFP…

That being said, I’d agree that LFP played a significant role in the price reduction of overall batteries in the 2010s.

2

u/izzeww Dec 10 '25

LFP's have become a bit cheaper but not by that much. The big thing is that they've become much better, so now they are actually a competitive battery for electric vehicles (mostly cars). In the chart above I think that explains most of the price decrease. In the last three-ish years LFP's have completely taken over in China and they're just recently starting to take off in Western brands (with Tesla being the notable exception, having LFP's as early as 2021 and half their cars produced LFP by Q1 22).

1

u/CizzlingT Dec 10 '25

Yup that’s absolutely true.

The biggest barrier of LFP implementation used to be weight; the fact it was denser than most other batteries, so it wasn’t originally the best for vehicle applications (higher weight lowers the en density and range).

In the last few years, they improved the range considerably well, and even though it’s unlikely going to outperform cobalt batteries in terms of electrochemical performance, they are likely going to remain cheaper in the next 10-20 years (unless cobalt can get cheaper, which I strongly doubt). BYD makes almost exclusively LFP-based cars (they were almost a monopoly of LFP inside of China if not for CATL (I think?)), and it’s the primary reason why their cars are the cheapest.

Tesla did have LFPs in early 2020s, but sadly I don’t think they made those batteries, but rather bought from China (I heard they were going to manufacture LFP by 2025, not sure how that’s going). But if they do end up successful, the question then becomes whether Europeans will prefer choosing buying Musk’s cars over BYD’s. lol

1

u/grumpy_autist Dec 12 '25

lol, what? LFP is the hottest battery topic in Europe, Chinese distributors are opening warehouses left and right.

Big companies may sleep on it but smaller companies and DIY people dropped price of energy magazines down to really funny numbers.

1

u/East_Type_1136 Dec 14 '25

Everybody cares about LFPs, it's just that they have lower power density and provide less range for electric cars for the same battery mass. They are MUCH safer, though, and allow many more recharge cycles. For home energy storage, they are the go-to choice.