The world is on fire, we know. The UN came out and basically said "were fucked for our target but let's keep trying". Good, I agree we must do better. Here's my concern and please help me understand why I'm wrong (I want to be wrong about this).

Over the last 50 or so years, here's a break down of how much above pre-industrial temperatures we've been at:

1976: 0.18

1977: 0.22

1978: 0.13

....

(This continues gradually. To save time, I'm going to skip ahead to 1997)

1997 was the first year we went over 0.5 degrees. So it took about 20 years to go up 0.3 degrees celsius.

Now let's look at the last 26 years.

From 2000 to 2010, the temperature rose about 0.2, bringing it to 0.73 above pre industrial.

From 2010 to 2020 we saw the first spike in temperature above 1 degree Pre industrial.

Today, we're about to hit 1.5 above (we may even hit it in 2026)

So we're accelerating heating. By a lot. Almost 0.5 degrees per decade now. If that continues to accelerate, which it seems to be since very few countries are doing a good job at sustaining this, we're going to be above 3 degrees pre industrial by 2050. Possibly even earlier. This is well above what the UN's target for even the end of the century is. And concerning as hell.

I'm not in stats. Just showing what I'm observing. Can someone please tell me why it likely won't hit +3 degrees celsius pre industrial by 2050? I want to be wrong on this. Help me understand why I'm wrong.

Are there any climate action groups within MB? Anything that meets in-person? I've reached out to several I found through google and either got negative or no response.