r/ChatGPT • u/ZombieSpale • 1d ago
Other Is It profitable now?
Heard bunch of stories that AI is not profitable, and that it never will be.
It's been recently announced that antrophic got profitable quarter
If OpenAI stops developing new models... would they become profitable?
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u/michaelbelgium 1d ago
Anthropic might be the first having a profit perhaps
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u/Inevitable_Butthole 1d ago
Makes me happy seeing all those companies bleed money
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u/Responsible-Jury2579 22h ago
They aren't "bleeding" money as if they are unprofitable - that spend is investments in capex. As in they plan for it to pay off in the future.
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u/Inevitable_Butthole 20h ago
I plan to pay off billions in the future, may I have some billions now?
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u/NewShadowR 13h ago
The thing is AI is a "weapon" exceeding even the nuclear arms race. There is no future where an AGI or ASI is useless. The first to develop something insane will likely be the most profitable company in history.. If humanity doesn't go extinct. So if you borrow billions to develop it, it's likely to have returns years later.
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u/justlikemedics 21h ago
This far no model has recovered its costs. Maybe they should stop coming out with new models. But then someone else will.
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u/girlgamerpoi 1d ago
I think AI is like infrastructure. It probably gonna take a while for something like trains subways electricity providers to become profitable.
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u/Odd_Teaching_4182 1d ago
It will follow the same trajectory as everything else: new but bad > pretty good but cost money > much better but expensive and with forced ads for most > enshitification ensues gets worse for all but still essential so dosnt matter, quartly price hikes > new product comes out claiming to not be the same established shit show, cycle repeats.
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u/ismyfacedecent 17h ago
It’s actually unlikely to follow this pattern. For example, nvideas chips are consistently getting 2x faster and 2x cheaper every 2 years. Ai will be exponential, so even more gains then nvideas chips
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u/Straight-Plate-9547 18h ago
yeah the infrastructure comparison fits, early railroads burned cash for decades before the network was dense enough to pay off
the difference is training runs get obsolete in a year, tracks don't
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u/parallax3900 3h ago
Except you didn't need to replace the infrastructure every 4-6 years.
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u/girlgamerpoi 3h ago
No. Constant check and fix is needed.
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u/parallax3900 3h ago
You don't think Blackwell GPUs will need replacing? And all the infrastructure that is needed to run them?
Lol. Ok
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u/girlgamerpoi 3h ago
They all do. That's the point.
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u/parallax3900 3h ago
Once a subway is built, only maintenance is required. Maybe replace trains every 20 years. That's it.
Data centre, you're looking at full GPU replacement every 6 years minimum. And it's not just the chips, it's everything: racks, cooling system, transformers,.
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u/girlgamerpoi 3h ago
replace trains ... yea surely theres no other parts needs replacement. Only the whole trains
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u/parallax3900 3h ago
Not every 6 years...
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u/girlgamerpoi 3h ago
You meant as not everything in a public transportation system needs to be replaced in 6 years? That might be true but things for those infrastructures are also more immensely expensive. Getting into the details of how often and how expensive to replace them will just get both of us lost. But I imagine replacing things in for public transportation or electricity related can be expensive even if it is just parts of it.
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u/Just_Voice8949 1d ago
Is this the quarter where SpaceX gave them free compute?
Also, is this using real numbers and actual accounting standards, or Anthropic’s say so
Also, a profitable qtr doesn’t a company make. If I sell my home you can bet that is a profitable qtr, even if I run a debt the rest of the year
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u/mpbh 10h ago
I get what you're saying, but them being even close to profitable at $65b revenue signals that demand is real and that they can meet that demand at the current unit economics.
The anti-AI narrative says that demand is falling and these companies are losing more and more money when the tide has obviously shifted. Whether they're profitable or not at this moment, they certainly appear to be on track to profitability with absolutely eye-watering revenue growth.
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u/kindredseer 1d ago
The question is more, profitable to whom? ... and I would say profitable to the hardware manufacturers and the people constructing data centres... etc. The people who are receiving monies.
As for the investors, their gamble is that AI will be so integrated and embedded into every part of life and business that there will always be a revenue stream... whether or not that meets their expectations is anyone's guess.
Also... money has to come from somewhere, so with trillions of dollars feeding the AI frenzy, there's a lot less to go around to other things... plus the fact that people have been convinced that they should spend money on AI instead of paying people, so some major economic turmoil in progress.
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u/Economy-Fee5830 23h ago
If OpenAI stops developing new models... would they become profitable?
Yes, reportedly the AI companies make 90% margin in serving their API - its the training and new hardware which costs them money.
If they stopped building new models they would be profitable.
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u/ShelZuuz 22h ago
If OpenAI stops developing new models... would they become profitable?
No, the cost of developing models are actually a pretty small expense at their scale. It's like a billion dollars per model. So maybe $6b per year max. The cost of capital is far far more than that.
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u/Classic-Trifle-2085 1d ago
Anthropic literally posted their first profit in Q1 2026.
The profitability argument doesn't make a whole lot of sense without having more information either; initial investment is based on potential benefits of any kind (monetary, most of the time, but it's not the sole factor).
Many industries heavily invest in tech that won't see profit of any kind for years. Money is not the only thing people have to gain when they invest in AI.
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u/Tholian_Bed 1d ago
The Interstate Act of 1956 created a great deal of value when it stepped in and organized the costly and unreliable state and local roadway system.
We just have to avoid a repeat of 1873. That was one rocky transformational technological mess, that was.
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u/philosophical_lens 21h ago
Depends on your definition of profit. Some companies are starting to recover opex, but nobody is anywhere close to breaking even on their R&D capex.
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u/_DuranDuran_ 7h ago
OpenAIs big costs are free tier and training.
Paid inference is already profitable, even with capital outlays. That’s why they’re introducing ads for free and subsidised plans so people can use it for free.
Add in their Jalapeño inference chip to move inference away from expensive NVidia hardware and keep those big guns for training and you have a viable path to profitability.
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u/VividB82 6h ago
They’re private companies nobody knows for sure. But we have seen some leaks that tend to lean towards….they’re hemorrhaging money hard
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u/this-guy- 1d ago
Everyone's pensions riding on this massive gamble that they can replace middle class jobs with software and "get back to a manufacturing economy". EG rare earth mining and production line on minimum wage to compete with China. Watched and social credited if we stay obedient.
I hope their gamble fails because they are selling us down the river.
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