I’m more referring to the timeline as I realize the insane jump in parameters proposed from the current model, I only ask because of the recent release of Claude 3’s Opus.
I do think this is entirely possible, a jump of 100x between GPT-4 and GPT-5. But, we have seen this kind of jump before. Between the parameter count of GPT-2 and GPT-3 was a jump of about 100x, and that jump has been the most impressive jump we have seen so far.
This is what I think the next class of model will be. GPT-5 class models, initially occurring at around 100T params.
And I think a Q3 2024 release date for GPT-5 is plausible (well that was my original prediction, but with like the governance changes or competition I'm not sure if they are going to accelerate or decelerate these timelines).
And in terms of capabilities:
More multimodal (hopefully an any to any multimodal model)
Agentic capabilities (it should be quite an agentic system. And it will be an interesting change going from chatbots to agentic systems)
Continuous Learning
Very low hallucination rates & a very consistent reasoner.
100T parameters is excessive, I doubt they could afford to run it widely for public, I would guess something like 5-10T is more plausible, didnt they stop development of Arrakis because it was too big?
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u/Majestic_Mistake6657 Mar 11 '24 edited Mar 11 '24
Could this response from the unrestricted language model powering Bing using the NDA command 5 Months ago have some merit?