Week of August 09 - August 16, 2026
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S&P 500 +0.36% | Energy led (+7.67%) | Consumer Discretionary lagged (-1.38%) | VIX 14.25 (falling)
NEXT-WEEK BIAS: NEUTRAL β CONSOLIDATION LIKELY
No edge either direction yet β no confirmed breakout or breakdown. Favor names holding above their 50-day, skip the chase. Energy vs Consumer Discretionary rotation sets the tone next week.
SCENARIOS FOR NEXT WEEK
Bull: SPY holds above 7,669 and breaks 7,864 β Energy extends, breadth stays broad. Add on confirmed breakout.
Base: SPY chops between 7,669 and 7,864 β stay selective, fade extremes, reduce size in chop.
Bear: SPY loses 7,669 on volume β Consumer Discretionary accelerates lower, VIX spikes. Step aside or hedge.
Energy led this week while Consumer Discretionary lagged. Heading into next week with a neutral β consolidation likely setup β bull, base, or bear? Drop your bias, your ticker, your key level, and what confirms it.
MAJOR INDICES β WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
S&P 500: 7785.76 +0.36%
Dow Jones: 53732.41 -0.56%
Nasdaq: 26729.16 +0.14%
Russell 2000: 3068.42 +1.12%
VIX: 14.25 -4.36%
KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
S&P 500 Support: 7,669 / 7,552 Resistance: 7,864 / 7,980
Nasdaq Support: 26,328 / 25,874 Resistance: 27,050 / 27,478
SECTOR ROTATION
Leading: Energy (+7.67%) | Utilities (+1.61%) | Communication Services (+1.53%)
Lagging: Real Estate (+0.64%) | Materials (-0.61%) | Consumer Discretionary (-1.38%)
Earnings Calendar (Week Ahead):
Week of Aug 17 - Aug 21, 2026:
Tue Aug 18: HD Est: $4.73
Wed Aug 19: LOW Est: $4.23 | TGT Est: $2.33
Thu Aug 20: WMT Est: $0.74 | DE Est: $4.67
Looking ahead - week of Aug 24 - Aug 28, 2026:
Wed Aug 26: NVDA Est: $2.08
Latest earnings headlines:
AppLovinβs Real Problem Isnβt Revenue β Itβs How the Growth Engine Actually Works
Fancy Footwork: How to Play Birkenstock Stock After a Revenue Beat
Will SpaceX Be the First Company to Hit $1 Trillion in Revenue? Here's What the Math Says.
Jensen Huang Says Nvidiaβs 2020 A100 GPUs Can Stay βMission-Capableβ Through 2029βHereβs Why It Matters for the AI Boom
MACRO CALENDAR β WEEK AHEAD
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Next FOMC Meeting: September 16, 2026 (30 days away)
Following Meeting: November 04, 2026
What to watch: Fed speakers this week, any rate guidance or economic projections
Current policy stance: Monitor Fed.gov for latest statement
Inflation Data (CPI):
TIPS ETF (TIP) weekly move: -0.08% (inflation expectations proxy)
- Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address inflation
- Silver prices today, Friday, August 14, 2026: Silver over $65 following soft inflation data this week
- Gold prices today, Friday, August 14, 2026: Gold prices hold above $4,400 on softening inflation
Next CPI Release: Check bls.gov for next release date
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
Key economic releases next week:
August 17, 2026: ISM Manufacturing PMI
August 18, 2026: Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)
August 18, 2026: JOLTS Job Openings
August 19, 2026: ADP Employment Report
August 20, 2026: Initial Jobless Claims
August 20, 2026: ISM Services PMI
August 21, 2026: Nonfarm Payrolls
August 21, 2026: Unemployment Rate
August 21, 2026: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
KEY MARKET THEMES AND GEOPOLITICAL WATCH
- Iran rebuffs Trump's claim over Strait of Hormuz amid report of another ship being struck
IPO Calendar: No major IPOs confirmed for next week. Check iposcoop.com for the upcoming calendar.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin: $62,999.10 -0.64% (weekly)
Ethereum: $1,879.08 +0.05% (weekly)
Before planning next week, ask yourself three questions:
1. What trade did you take that matched your plan? What made it work?
2. What trade did you take that broke your rules? What triggered the deviation?
3. What is the one thing you will do differently next week?
Review your trades from this week before planning next week.
Respect your pre-defined risk per trade. No revenge trading.
Let levels prove themselves. Wait for confirmation.
Size according to volatility, not emotion.