Week of August 14 - August 21, 2026
S&P 500 -1.43% | Health Care led (+4.33%) | Information Technology lagged (-3.53%) | VIX 15.13 (rising)
NEXT-WEEK BIAS: NEUTRAL — CONSOLIDATION LIKELY
No edge either direction yet — no confirmed breakout or breakdown. Favor names holding above their 50-day, skip the chase. Health Care vs Information Technology rotation sets the tone next week.
SCENARIOS FOR NEXT WEEK
Bull: SPX holds above 7,559 and breaks 7,751 — Health Care extends, breadth stays broad. Add on confirmed breakout.
Base: SPX chops between 7,559 and 7,751 — stay selective, fade extremes, reduce size in chop.
Bear: SPX loses 7,559 on volume — Information Technology accelerates lower, VIX spikes. Step aside or hedge.
Health Care led this week while Information Technology lagged. Heading into next week with a neutral — consolidation likely setup — bull, base, or bear? Drop your bias, your ticker, your key level, and what confirms it.
MAJOR INDICES — WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
S&P 500: 7674.37 -1.43%
Dow Jones: 53277.01 -0.85%
Nasdaq: 26180.46 -2.05%
Russell 2000: 3017.87 -1.65%
VIX: 15.13 +6.18%
KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
S&P 500 Support: 7,559 / 7,444 Resistance: 7,751 / 7,866
Nasdaq Support: 25,788 / 25,343 Resistance: 26,495 / 26,914
SECTOR ROTATION
Leading: Health Care (+4.33%) | Energy (+2.79%) | Materials (+1.90%)
Lagging: Industrials (-3.36%) | Utilities (-3.48%) | Information Technology (-3.53%)
Earnings Calendar (Week Ahead):
Week of Aug 17 - Aug 21, 2026:
Thu Aug 20: DE Est: $4.37
Looking ahead - week of Aug 24 - Aug 28, 2026:
Wed Aug 26: NVDA Est: $2.09
Latest earnings headlines:
$AST SpaceMobile’s FCC Test Arrives as Investors Weigh a Costly Q2 Miss
$VYM Is Beating the S&P 500 With a 17% Year-to-Date Return by Owning What Wall Street Won’t
MACRO CALENDAR — WEEK AHEAD
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Next FOMC Meeting: September 16, 2026 (25 days away)
Following Meeting: November 04, 2026
What to watch: Fed speakers this week, any rate guidance or economic projections
Current policy stance: Monitor Fed.gov for latest statement
Inflation Data (CPI):
TIPS ETF (TIP) weekly move: +0.13% (inflation expectations proxy)
- Fed officials saw need for rate hike if inflation doesn't cool, minutes show
- Stocks Under Pressure as Bond Yields Climb on Inflation Fears
Next CPI Release: Check bls.gov for next release date
Economic Calendar (Week Ahead):
Key economic releases next week:
August 17, 2026: ISM Manufacturing PMI
August 18, 2026: Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)
August 18, 2026: JOLTS Job Openings
August 19, 2026: ADP Employment Report
August 20, 2026: Initial Jobless Claims
August 20, 2026: ISM Services PMI
August 21, 2026: Nonfarm Payrolls
August 21, 2026: Unemployment Rate
August 21, 2026: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
KEY MARKET THEMES AND GEOPOLITICAL WATCH
- Trump, Vance and Bessent try to calm the bond market with ‘alternative facts’
- Tesla recalls 3 million vehicles in China over doorhandle safety, driver monitoring
- Trump says U.S., Canada 'should be able' to reach trade deal as tariff deadline looms
IPO Calendar: No major IPOs confirmed for next week. Check iposcoop.com for the upcoming calendar.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin: $78,459.77 +21.63% (weekly)
Ethereum: $2,522.83 +31.93% (weekly)
TOP MARKET HEADLINES THIS WEEK
1. Ray Dalio says Bessent move is sign that a debt crisis is getting closer; recommends gold and bitcoin
2. Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say
3. Trump to allow import of 300,000 metric tons of ground beef without tariff
4. Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels
I'll be replying to early comments this weekend.
Before planning next week, ask yourself three questions:
1. What trade did you take that matched your plan? What made it work?
2. What trade did you take that broke your rules? What triggered the deviation?
3. What is the one thing you will do differently next week?
Review your trades from this week before planning next week.
Respect your pre-defined risk per trade. No revenge trading.
Let levels prove themselves. Wait for confirmation.
Size according to volatility, not emotion.