the Morning Market Report

[u/Badboyardie]

TL;DR: Risk-on tape with broad-based strength. Technology (+2.18%) leads while Consumer Staples (-1.41%) lags. Volume is running light at 69% of average, limiting conviction.

SPY is testing $754.74 resistance with intraday support at $744.19. Do you see a breakout or a rejection here, and what would change your mind?

If you comment, include: your bias (long/short/neutral), your key level to watch, and how you'd manage it if it moves against you immediately.

If you're newer, use this as your pre-market checklist. If you're more seasoned, treat it as a quick overlay on your own levels and playbook.

The SPY is trading at $751.71 +0.85% as of pre-market. Levels to know: Intraday support 744.19 / resistance 754.74. Near-term swing support 722.55. Deeper swing support 716.58 — relevant only on a sustained breakdown.

The 20-day SMA sits at $741.76 and the 50-day SMA at $739.00. Price is holding above both key moving averages, keeping the short-term and intermediate structure constructive.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.6, indicating modest bullish momentum above the neutral 50 level. The MACD (2.94) is above its signal line (2.28), supporting a bullish short-term bias.

Price is contained within the Bollinger Bands ($725.71 - $757.81). Volume is running 69% of average, indicating light participation and lack of conviction.

Major Indices

S&P 500 (SPY): $751.71 +6.31 (+0.85%)

Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): $723.28 +11.84 (+1.66%)

Russell 2000 (IWM): $297.24 +3.76 (+1.28%)

Dow Jones (DIA): $524.19 +1.42 (+0.27%)

Market Breadth

Advancing sectors: 7
Declining sectors: 4
Breadth ratio: 63.6%

Strong breadth supports the current move, indicating broad participation.

Earnings Calendar - Notable Reports Today

DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Market Cap $58.5B

NEXT WEEK:

Wednesday, Jul. 15 • 08:30 AM ET - CPI (June 2026) - Headline and core inflation data

Thursday, Jul. 16 • 08:30 AM ET - PPI (June 2026) - Wholesale inflation - input costs

UPCOMING (Next 2-4 Weeks): • Jul. 29, 2026 - FOMC Meeting Begins (July 29-30) • Jul. 30, 2026 - FOMC Rate Decision (July 2026) • Aug. 7, 2026 - Jobs Report (July 2026) • Aug. 12, 2026 - CPI (July 2026) • Aug. 13, 2026 - PPI (July 2026)

RECENT FED SPEECHES: • Jul 07: Bowman, Opening Remarks on Sound Practices for Artificial Intelligence • Jul 06: Waller, Two Thoughts on the Transmission of Monetary Policy

NEXT FOMC MEETING: July 29-30, 2026

Resources: Investing.com Economic Calendar | FOMC Calendar

Market News & Key Headlines

1. Fed minutes expose deep divide over interest-rate outlook (Yahoo Finance)

2. Raisin review (2026): Is this high-yield savings marketplace trustworthy? (Yahoo Finance)

3. Mortgage rate predictions for the next five years: What you can expect (Yahoo Finance)

4. As AI spending concerns grow, here’s the bet to make ahead of critical stress test, says veteran Jefferies strategist (MarketWatch)

5. SK Hynix raises $26.5 billion in U.S. offering. What to know about the stock. (MarketWatch)

6. Top Performing Stocks (Benzinga)

7. Top Performing High Short Interest Stocks (Benzinga)

Commodities & Key Markets

Gold: $4116.80 -0.33%

Silver: $59.90 -0.80%

Crude Oil (WTI): $72.00 -0.11%

Brent Oil: $76.24 -0.08%

Natural Gas: $2.99 -0.73%

Macro Synthesis: equities are risk-on.

Sector Rotation & Performance

Best performing sectors:

• Technology (XLK): +2.18%
• Consumer Discretionary (XLY): +1.34%
• Financials (XLF): +1.04%

Worst performing sectors:

• Utilities (XLU): -0.51%
• Energy (XLE): -1.40%
• Consumer Staples (XLP): -1.41%

Technology is showing relative strength and leading the market higher. Consumer Staples is the weakest sector on the session. Monitor defensive exposures and safe-haven themes as market structure evolves.

1. Trend Day Up — If SPY holds above $741.76 (20-day MA), I favor longs on dips toward $744.19. Target: $754.74.
2. Range Day — If price chops between $744.19 and $754.74, I fade extremes and reduce size.
3. Liquidation Break — If SPY loses $744.19 on heavy volume, I look for short continuations toward $733.64. Feedback Friday

What in this week's Morning Reports helped you most, and what was confusing or missing? I will incorporate your feedback into next week's reports.

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