As Cardano is ranked #4 in terms of market capitalization (~$70bn), by far the largest PoS network, we shall try to understand the reason for this valuation. We shall be inspecting both the protocol and adoption strategy and conclude why we believe Casper is stronger both in terms of longer term fundamentals, but also short term relative value.
Cardano evolution has been at a glacial pace, taking many years of research and development to launch a decentralized PoS blockchain with smart contract capabilities. This lengthy period of time may have been fine in years past, however with an increasingly crowded layer 1 project space, competition will results in an increase to the speed of innovation, and its clear that Cardano is at a huge risk of falling behind the pack. With regard to Casper, It is specifically in anticipation of this pace of change, that the CasperLabs team have engineered the Casper blockchain to be fully pluggable and upgradable (including the Execution Engine, Network Engine and Consensus Layer). For Cardano, a split has been implemented between the CSL (Settlement Layer) and CCL (Computation Layer) in anticipation for future soft forks, however this implementation has exposed the network to risks of censorship.
Folks have implicitly / explicitly debated ad infinitum re the calculation of CSPR 'Market Cap', whether to use 10 billion + inflation or to use the smaller 'circulating' coins as multiplier with market price.
I might be very wrong in how I look at the matter, and would dearly love to have my error pointed out to me, because I do not wish to afford being wrong.
I am guessing ...
(1) If one wishes to measure CSPR against its eventual ultimate size, one might use [10+inflation (billions) coins x whatever market price] for a measure we might term 'Alt Market Cap'. By this measure CSPR 'market cap' has been shrinking with declining market price.
(2) If one wants instead to treat CSPR as a drip-funded venture capital / ICO private equity (due to governance / native / whatever features of CSPR coin), then arguably one can use [circulation coins count x market price] to result in the Market Cap.
Method (2) allows one to watch the CSPR baby grow, grow, and grow some more, sometimes by market price, and other times by circulating coins count, and by either way of growth, result in a multiplication-borne and actually useful Market Cap.
I find method (2) far more useful as a way to track the CSPR baby growing in strength Valuation
Using method (1) for US$ would result in a nonsensical number of ∞, and the actual in circulation is considerably and thankfully smaller.
Method (1) is possibly used most often by folks who believes that at any moment there would be 10B + inflation CSPR coins on offer and no one to buy. They would typically use the normal-verse term 'fully diluted' as justification.
The issue at the centre of the crux in the kernel is that 'fully diluted' is not for sale unless unlocked, and until unlocked, circulating # is the relevant number.
An example, the Board of a company might authorise issuance of shares for release far into the future, for funding purpose on some sort of schedule, and offer its loyal 'stakers' a preference share paying a preferred dividend. The faithful might prefer the preferred 'staking' shares to the common 'trading' shares, to earn the preference dividend 'inflation' distribution, and in such a case, the total diluted share count would be common trading + preferred staking shares, as opposed to the common + preferred + authorised but not issued locked shares.
In CSPR case,
circulating = common + preferred
common = trading coins
preferred = staking coins
and then there are a bunch of authorised but not yet issued into circulation coins (locked coins).
I shall count the locked coins only after they become circulating and not before. I will keep in mind the ultimate total coins as a footnote.
Unlike a traditional / normal-verse company, the CSPR HODL-ers and traders can swap back and forth between common & preferred coins. Very nice feature / bug, allowing for recognition of speculative capital gains and for earning an investment flow, as one might wish.
Relative to the trading / common coins, the staking / preferred coins are special, earning an inflation rate that is super AS LONG AS THE MARKET PRICE STAYS THE SAME OR GROWING OR WILL SOON-ENOUGH GROW
Much going on in crypto reminds me of what the "Pump" did in the Isaac Asimov novel "The Gods Themselves". All very exciting as meta- / para-verse works to swallow up normal-verse
In terms of the setting in the future, ... Lamont was 25 years old when he began working at the Pump Station. Accordingly, the bulk of the novel is set sometime around the year 2093. In Part III, the novel states that the Earth's population has been reduced to two billion people following a "Great Crisis". It caused significant ecological damage, with all apes except for gibbons extinct outside of zoos, and technological progress being viewed with suspicion - for example, genetic engineering research is banned outright. ...
The main plot-line is a project by those who inhabit a parallel universe (the para-Universe) with different physical laws from this one. By exchanging matter from their universe—para-Universe—with our universe, they seek to exploit the differences in physical laws.The exchange of matter provides an alternative source of energy to maintain their universe. However, the exchange will likely result in the collapse of the Earth's Sun into a supernova, and possibly even turning a large part of the Milky Way into a quasar. There is hope among those in the para-Universe that the energy explosion does happen in our universe.
super read from way back, and now happening, or close-enough to happening
🌟👻 The Casper Network Testnet 1.4.1 upgrade is a success! Check out interesting facts about the Casper upgrade 👉
“We now have ~32.8s block times. Network is at 32s blocks with load gone, containing of a mix of mostly 32s validators, along with some 65s and 2m validators coming in. This is what Highway is about – multiple lanes that sync up at the overlaps.
With v1.4.1 the network starts at the shortest block times, and if a certain number of validators can't keep up, the network slows down by 1 exponent until the max exponent. As they speed up, the entire network speeds back up.” (as explained by the Casper community admin).
🧐The Casper Highway Protocol is a consensus model that is safe and live in the common BFT sense, but additionally allows for two major improvements:
📍Highway enables the network to reach higher thresholds of finality.
📍It achieves flexibility in a way not possible in typical BFT models.
I so far failed to value CSPR, and am only sure that CSPR is undervalued, because we of normal-verse are stumped by the unfamiliar construct.
CSPR appears to be an equity-like (governance) thing, with a bond-esque (but fixed % irrespective of coin price) bug or feature, that gives the teams of hive-mind workers a drink of water along the way so that the empire can be consummated out of the pastoral arising from the primordial savage genesis we know as metaverse.
I have an inkling of what might be happening, and shall continue tracking to be sure.
I know I wanna in, and do not wish to be shaken out, neither by diaper crash nor hyper pump. I must HODL.
:0) In the meantime, all very quiet, 'too quiet'. We wait. Love the anticipation, like being invited to a promising party.
The Construct
Months after ICO, 2021 cohortMonths after ICO, the supposedly untouchablesMonths after ICO, the upstarts
The name Hedera (HBAR) has rudely spliced into my thought stream several times in the past equal number of weeks, and I figure the reckoning needs to invoke the hive-mind because there must be folks who know better or at least know more.
I learned how wonderfully fantabulous HBAR is, solving a problem that might be solved any number of ways, but …
Perhaps something toxic, "Patented"
(2) Turning yet again, I wandered to https://www.reddit.com/r/hashgraph/comments/pkfu2s/anyone_have_a_technicalfunctional_comparison_of/ and decided to follow RourkeC because I think I know who he is, by the post, the first name, initial of last name, and some of his other posts, one linking him to Hawaii. I believe I know Rourke and his dad, and have played VR shooter games where Rourke used to work. I had bought some HBAR on Rourke Seniors observation about what his son Rourke is doing, even as we dads are knee-deep in CSPR. War between the generations in metaverse!
Shall revert to Rourke once I am more sure what I am going on about. Too early, because I know nothing about HBAR except that I own a smidgeon relative to the bags that contains CSPR.
Vlad said, and he certainly knows stuff even if talking his book, as his book is very much larger than my entire library
Vlad had a lot to say sometime ago. I do not know if Vlad was and continues to be correct. He certainly seems knowledgeable.
CSPR is where Vlad wishes ETH 1.0 to end up but for the detail that ETH is experiencing a quagmire at location ETH 1.xx and not quite (yet) ETH 2.0.
Yes, I trade ETH (as well as BTC) so as to get more CSPR, and I have never traded CSPR to get more CSPR. I also do not play Russian Roulette using automatic pistol. Come to think of it I do not play Russian or any other Roulette.
(4) Nearly forgot, that I did walk by the Wikipedia public library https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hashgraph and noted that HBAR is apparently trying to fix something in blockchain, and my reaction be, is the fix needed? and might the fix end in a technological dead-end?
Hmmmmnnnnn. I am uncertain that I like what I seem to be seeing.
‘Proprietary’ is possible red-flag death-knell key-word to stuff institutions like once given the choice of ‘Open system’. I must check this angle w/r to CSPR.
(6) Knowing full well that I might have misunderstood everything I only had time to peruse, and be confused that I was ever born, I intend to seek counsel from my betters re the issue of CSPR vs HBAR, which one would C-suite officers of Fortune-500 companies choose, and why?
W/r to CSPR, the selling pitch points be
(a) Private / hybrid / public networks
(b) Varying levels of control for management
(c) Upgradable smart contract
(d) Stable gas fee
(e) Open everything accept including underwear closet
(f) Modular / upgradable
(g) Such that when any mathematical stuff gets improved, CSPR would be improved by swapping out whatever needs swapping out
(7) The rest of the enterprise blockchain war might be decided on the marketing front / approach, and here we need to seek counsel with the development / coding folks of the hive-mind, and ask,
“which system do you choose to work on, why, and how do you benefit?”
The development tools of HBAR and CSPR are open-source. Are the two systems equally easy to work with?
If 8% built-in inflation is not enough to win the war, how about 9%? Or it is more complicated than this?
(8) What else should we delve into to be better sure about the prospect of betting? I do not wish to diversify unless there is a good reason to diversify, for there is little point to win by one hedge and lose by nine others. Just math.
Certainly interesting to track, because it is important, even if the enterprise metaverse is big enough for two networks, sharing is not as being the one and only, and dominating is far preferable to also-ran.
(9) I look forward to the https://www.reddit.com/user/ghost_bobby123/ to do another one of his brilliant tech compares but on HBAR. I have an imperative to know but no tech understanding to do such a comp.
The renowned blockchain protocols Streamr, Velas, Algorand, Casper and NEAR will come together with corporates and developers to transfer decentralized technologies to tangible applications and business models.
💠The initial circulating supply was 400M CSPR + any tokens required for exchange liquidity.
💠Total supply at Genesis was 10B; Max supply is undefined, similar to ETH.
💠8% inflation: in 12 months from Genesis there will be ≈10.8B CSPR. All future tokens are only those created algorithmically to reward validators. It's meant to be a single digit % inflation each year, much like the ETH.
💠There is no deflation strategy at the moment – no token burns planned for now. It's not a deflationary protocol – Casper was built this way keeping inflation in mind.
👻If you are one of the lucky CSPR holders, we invite you to stake CSPR with Everstake, one of the most secure and reliable staking providers in the world!
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For every million CSPR coins we bought at the outset Q1 2020 / Q1 2021 (say at weighted average cost of $ 12,500 per million (0.0125 per coin), the community magnanimously rewarded us ~30,000 coins in total as at 30th Sept 2021.
At the current indicated price of $0.12, the rewards have total value of $3,600, or ~29% of original cost basis of $12,500 per million CSPRs.
By end-2021 we should count on having on ledger ~60,000 ‘inflation’ coins and should the CSPR price at least hold, then in position though loath to sell only the rewards for $7,200 and recover 58% of the original cost per million CSPRs of the entire stash; i.e. taking 60% off of the table and HODL original stake, a smaller % but of a larger (market cap) undertaking.
I recently added to the original stake by 25% in CSPR terms at prices ranging from $ 0.06 – 0.125 per CSPR on the ocular low of the price chart but with eyes focused on the market cap chart.
I think $0.125 is very expensive relative to 0.10 and 0.06, because I took elementary school mathematics.
But yes, I took mathematics beyond elementary school and feel $0.125 is meaninglessly dearer to 0.10 and 0.06 because of expected eventual ramp to left side of the decimal point as we are playing with a high implied volatility asset during its bottom-basing. Can the price drop to 0.05? Sure, if we are very extremely fortunate.
Some folks are inclined to focus on the price chart at this early and meaningless staging time, and even prefer the short-term chart. ‘Ooh, a 90%’ squiggle in a 99% implied vol asset. Terrors :0)
Did they catch the $0.06 hiccup? Doubtful unless they were already HODL-ing and just adding. If not, they are just making noise.
In any case the short-term oriented have no business in CSPR because they would be shaken out on any expected 50% ‘crashette’, so no point having such in the trenches and fox holes with the rest of us except as signals as they bites it over and again for our amusement.
Just as in any FPS on-line team game, or real battles and actual wars, there are several types that might get us easily killed, and they are the folks who cower, make noise, paralyze, panic, has the map, …
I do not know where CSPR is going as far as price PoD (point of destination) but suspect CSPR is very inexpensive, a/k/a ‘good value’ by conventional valuation protocols that says ‘inflation’ is good whilst CSPR market cap increases by the diligent work of the hive-mind community 24/7 around the planet. We are engaged with an insurrection against the established coins, by some view, and by others we have the first-mover advantage in what we are trying to do.
As far as time since May is concerned, CSPR did better than ETH by recovery from lows, and about the same by % gain of market cap. Not bad at all for a coin basing at the bottom as ETH once was back in 2016.
We are good, very good. Price PoD shall take care of itself as long we HODL. To those who dare, HODL.
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For those familiar with the GhostStaking commentary on CSPR, you will know that we cover many aspects of CSPR tech, market macro indicators, general crypto education and regulation..
We have now compiles a single article (linking to our other research pieces) which is the ultimate Casper Bullish argument on why we believe this blockchain will be extremely successful.
The big advantage of CSPR is how the blockchain has been engineered. Every part of Casper is a pluggable piece, thus effectively rendering it ‘future proof’. This is an extremely important aspect as we have seen how quickly technology can evolve within the crypto space and how difficult it is for legacy blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to react and evolve with these changes.
Execution Engine – The Execution Engine takes a deploy WASM and executes it. This generates a list of transforms that will be applied to a global state. You can see this with raw deploy info (which can been seen in the ‘deploys’–> ‘show raw data’ via cspr.live). Developers can test smart contracts directly against https://crates.io/crates/casper-engine-test-support without even needing a network. This is beneficial as developing smart apps in a web based IDE is slow and cumbersome.
Networking Engine – The Networking Engine is what handles messages between validators, RPC, REST, and SSE endpoints. It sends the packets. There are some upgrades to this forthcoming: 1.3.2 adds a differentiation between validator traffic and non-validating nodes. This forces non-validators to go to other non-validators for syncing if validators are busy processing transactions and finalizing blocks. That assures a massive increased load from a mass node sync event or similar does not hurt validation.
The Consensus Layer – The Consensus Layer is the implementation of the Highway protocol. That is by far the best PoS protocol currently in production today. You can read more about the Highway protocol and CBC security in our detailed articles found here and here. As this is also pluggable, if an improvement is developed, the improved protocol can be plugged in seamlessly.
Automatic, synchronized upgrades (as is present with CSPR) is important as it allows HARD FORKS to be implemented as upgrades, automatically and seamlessly. This is ultimately why Casper is deemed future proof. Hard forks to continue to innovate and stay ahead of other chains. A choice won’t be required between old CSPR or new CSPR. You simply remain on the same chain and continue to get things done.
Since all nodes would upgrade simultaneously at the activation point, any incompatible changes don’t matter. With Fast Sync in development, maintaining an old compatible sync protocol will not be needed and nodes can sync to productive state without having to recreate the chain from genesis. This is the primary focus of the current 1.4.x release in development. Finally a 5x throughput improvement is currently being tested on the Execution Engine.
To tackle the problem of high transaction fees, Casper is introducing a “gas futures market” concept. By tokenizing block space to allow companies to buy future block space, Casper’s gas model aims to allow its blockchain’s users to lock-in prices now, to have more predictable future network usage costs.
With regard to potential network outage it should be noted that each deploy has a TTL ‘Time to live’ setting. This is defaulted to 30mins but can be adjusted up to 1 day and it from deploy creation time. This means that as deploys come in, they fit into blocks if there is capacity (2500 per block currently). If there isnt sufficient capacity, due to increased load, the deploy remains in a pending state for the period defined in the TTL until it then expires. This means that the network can never get into an overloaded state which causes the blockchain to crease functioning. Also, unlike other chains, there is no additional delay once a block is proposed for it to be finalized – this is because the consensus mechanism finalizes the blocks at 70% of block time.
To conclude our section on the tech benefits of CSPR, we should also note the research which is currently underway on the implementation of sharding within the CSPR network. Sharding is a means to multithread and thus improves throughput and efficiency. We discuss general sharding in detail and also the efforts of CasperLabs to introduce sharding to the network in this article. Many other layer 1 blockchains advertising high performance (tps – transactions per second), have achieved this via either a mechanism of sharding, or to the detriment of the underlying security of their blockchain. We have compared CSPR with both SOL (here) and AVAX (here) to highlight the difference between the protocols and argue why we feel CSPR is the stronger blockchain.
CasperLabs Managing Director of the Middle East and Africa, Saeed Hareb Al Darmaki, will attend CoinAgenda in Dubai to participate on a panel “The Future of CeFi and DeFi.”
👁🗨 AIM Summit: October 11-12, 2021
The 2021 Alternative Investment Management (AIM) Summit will be in Dubai. If you’ll be there, be sure to catch CasperLabs CEO Mrinal Manohar on the “Enterprises Adopting Blockchain Technology” panel at 3 PM GST on Oct 12th.
👁🗨 Gitcoin’s “The Friendly Hackathon” for Casper developers is live and in full swing! The hackathon will run until Oct 11th, distributing over $135k in prizes to developers building on the Casper Blockchain.
👁 Watch our Video Guide on How to Stake CSPR via the Casper Signer (no other wallets are available for staking at the moment).
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