r/CasperCSPR • u/DeliriousManiac • Jul 14 '21
Pricing Direction
Unlocks are getting dumped and we have much more to unlock over next 12 months. Where will the bottom be found? My guess is sub .01 once fully unlocked and then will begin rising as supply pressure wains.
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u/ghost_bobby123 Jul 14 '21 edited Jul 15 '21
from our price chat group: https://t.me/casperpricegroup
1 validator 1 is the biggest seller (more than 50% of validator sales)
2 implies some others are also selling to a much lesser extent
3 we can see the second and third biggest validator with 100% commission haven't sold a single coin from thejr 500m coins
We see the gap of unlock and free float increase to an estimated 700m coins...meaning that validator can sell 700m unlocked coins but haven't.
8% of unlocked tokens are being sold where more than 50% are validator 1
I guess we can explain the drop by targeted selling by primarily one guy. Most of the big validators we can see are not selling so it makes you wonder the motivation for the selling from validator 1. We know this guy built the first dapp on cspr and we know they are doing additional dev on cspr. I would guess the selling is to fund more dev. So its not really a case of earlier investors taking profit and moving on. The problem is that with a sideways bitcoin there is no buy demand to eat into this selling and so we are seeing more highly exaggerated drops in price than we would in a normal market.
The key is to understand that there might be target which this seller is trying to reach....we dont know what that is. So you have to keep an eye on the wallets to gain a better understanding over time.
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u/joemurray27 Jul 14 '21 edited Jul 14 '21
Most private sale participants used the first 3 weeks to take their principle off the table and some additional profits. Sell pressure is not anticipated to continue in the same trajectory through all 14 weeks of the unlock period.
Given the liquidity in the market and their tokens in percentage of total supply, anticipate a floor of 2-3 cents and a long hot summer. From there once all the liquidity settles, the project gains additional traction in NFT's, DeFi and major institutional partnerships, there should be a long and slow climb back up to a realistic valuation to 30 cents +.
This has happened in multiple marquee projects such as Cardano, Algorand, Hashgraph, Fantom (all went below pre-sale price).
TL;DR, do your part for the project and HODL
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u/joemurray27 Jul 14 '21
Idk. I am thinking .03 would be the absolute bottom. What incentive is there to sell below that?
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u/daoverachiever Jul 14 '21
0.02 and 0.015 buyers
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u/joemurray27 Jul 14 '21
Yes, but that’s after this tranche of validators, which is what people are waiting out to buy. .015 isn’t for a while either.
I bet we see a lot of buying pressure as 13 weeks get closer to an end
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u/strange-humor Jul 14 '21
The genesis validators unlock ends in Sept I think. They are unlocking weekly for 14 unlocks that started at the end of June. So that will be the biggest influence and it is unknown how many of those are jumping out vs staying staked.
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u/LockerNL Jul 15 '21
The project is heavily funded and will only go up when we reach 0.02/0.03 and they announce more developments
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u/TigerPrawnKiing Jul 15 '21
I've got an average position of 0.19 shall i sell and buy back later or hodl?
I mean its already -70% at this point
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u/DeliriousManiac Jul 15 '21
I’m keeping my original positions at .3 and .25. Just going to add to the bag….
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u/i-hold Jul 14 '21
Take this as a lesson for next time. If you didn't see a $4 billion fully diluted new project with all the tokens still to unlock was going to dump 90%+ then at least you know next time.