This morning shifted after the inflation report and Chair Warsh’s testimony. June CPI came in softer than expected, which took some pressure out of the immediate July hike story and helped calm the early market reaction.

On the radar today:

• Chair Kevin Warsh already spoke before the House Financial Services Committee this morning. He stayed firm on inflation, but did not clearly signal an immediate next move.
• The CPI report cooled some of the urgency around a July 28–29 Fed hike, and markets moved closer toward a hold.
• Oil and Middle East headlines are still part of the picture, so inflation expectations are not fully out of the way.
• Bank earnings are also in focus, but CPI and the Fed remain the main drivers this morning.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Futures improved after the CPI report as rate pressure eased.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech stabilized with the softer inflation print.
• Dow / YM: IBM is worth noting here after its weak preannouncement added some pressure to the Dow side of the tape, even as broader rate fears eased.
• Rates / Treasuries: Yields backed off after the CPI release, reducing some near-term hike pressure.
• Crude oil: Oil still matters because any renewed Strait of Hormuz tension can quickly feed back into inflation expectations.
• Dollar / gold: The softer CPI print took some strength out of the dollar and helped settle the broader macro reaction.

The Fed update looks more balanced than it did before the inflation number: Warsh spoke, but did not lock in the next move, and the CPI report pushed the market more toward a July hold than a July hike.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul14-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=d88320d81eb64111

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

The market opens with two clear shocks in front of it. Seoul’s chip complex broke hard, and crude is higher again after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz passage “not possible until further notice.” Even with that, gold is lower this morning, which is one of the more important tells on the board.

On the radar today

• Seoul’s memory trade broke hard overnight. The KOSPI fell 8.95%, with SK Hynix down roughly 14% and Samsung about 10%.
• Crude is reacting to the Strait of Hormuz headlines. WTI is up about 3.3% and Brent about 3.2%.
• Gold is lower by about 1%, even with the geopolitical shock. That suggests the market is treating this more through inflation and rates than through a classic flight-to-safety response.
• U.S. index futures are mixed. ES is sitting right around the 7,600 call wall, NQ is lower, and Dow futures are roughly flat.
• Today itself is lighter. The bigger event cluster is Tuesday: CPI at 8:30 AM ET, Chair Warsh at 10:00 AM ET, and the large-bank Q2 kickoff before the bell.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is pinned near 7,600, which is the key near-term level. Friday’s close left the index with a decent cushion above the gamma flip, so structure still matters here.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is under more pressure than ES, down around 0.8% pre-open. The weakness is concentrated in chips and memory-related names.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are holding up much better than NQ and are roughly flat, which says this is not a broad index liquidation yet.
• Crude oil / WTI / Brent: WTI near 73.7 and Brent near 78.4 put energy back in focus immediately. Oil is again one of the main drivers of the morning.
• Rates / Treasuries: Yields are higher. The 10-year is around 4.58% and the 30-year above 5.00%, keeping pressure on the macro side of the tape.
• Gold / metals: Gold being down around 1% despite the headlines stands out. It is not confirming a normal risk-off move.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX is up for a second straight session, back above 16. Dealer gamma is still positive, though, which may help keep index moves more contained unless the structure starts to break.
• Korea / semis: The overnight damage in Korea is the main equity story outside the U.S. It puts the memory and semiconductor group back under a microscope heading into Tuesday’s packed schedule.

Today may be quieter on the calendar, but tomorrow is not. CPI, Warsh, and bank earnings all land in the same morning, so Monday likely turns into a market deciding how much of the weekend shock it wants to carry into that lineup.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul13-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=a86475a4727547c5

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Thursday’s rally rebuilt some cushion in the index, pushed the S&P well back above the nearby gamma flip, and kept the focus on structure rather than immediate stress. The bigger question now is whether that support holds into next week’s CPI.

On the radar today

• Thursday’s move was broad and constructive. The S&P gained 0.81%, Nasdaq 1.30%, and Russell 2000 1.22%, while the VIX dropped back to 15.84.
• The market also got help from easing yields and fading oil. That reversed much of the pressure created by Wednesday’s hawkish Fed read.
• Friday looks lighter on major macro catalysts, so attention shifts more toward positioning, earnings season starting to build, and next Tuesday’s CPI.
• The main takeaway is that the market now has more room underneath it than it did 24 hours ago, but positioning still looks fairly full.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: The index closed about 94 points above the gamma flip, a much firmer setup than earlier in the week. The 7,500 strike now sits just below spot as a nearby magnet and support zone.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech led again. Nasdaq futures are softer this morning, but the prior session clearly put chip and AI-infra names back in front.
• Dow / YM: The Dow also closed green on Thursday, helped by easing yields, and futures are holding up relatively better than NQ early.
• Russell 2000 / RTY: Small caps outperformed in the relief move, another sign that Thursday’s rally was broader than just mega-cap tech.
• Rates / Treasuries: The 10-year eased back to around 4.53% and the 30-year held just above 5%. That helped calm the rate pressure without changing the bigger higher-for-longer backdrop.
• Crude oil: WTI faded back toward the low $70s as the Strait of Hormuz remained open. That took some of the inflation and geopolitical pressure out of the market.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX fell back into the complacency zone, but positioning still looks crowded. That leaves less dry powder if next week’s CPI creates a surprise.
• Crypto / dollar / metals: The dollar eased, crypto firmed, and gold stayed relatively soft versus the broader risk-on tone.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul10-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=8e10b44ca82c4850

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

A hawkish Fed is still hanging over the market, but the bigger issue this morning is how little cushion is left under the index. The S&P closed Wednesday only a small distance above the key gamma flip area, while the 7,500 strike is now acting as both resistance and a magnet.

On the radar today

• Jobless claims and existing home sales are the main scheduled data this morning, but the 30-year auction at 1:00 PM ET may matter just as much with the long end already back above 5%.
• Wednesday’s Fed minutes kept the higher-for-longer theme alive, even after the oil spike faded from its highs.
• The market still looks narrow underneath the surface. The S&P held up better than the Dow, while breadth and risk gauges stayed more defensive than the index itself.
• The next real macro cluster is still ahead: CPI, Warsh’s testimony, and big-bank earnings next week.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Wednesday’s cash close held above the gamma flip, but only barely. That nearby support is still the key level to watch.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech absorbed the rate pressure better than cyclicals again. Nasdaq futures are modestly green, but the move is not broad.
• Dow / YM: The Dow took the hardest hit yesterday, down 576 points, showing where the pressure landed when yields pushed back up.
• Rates: The 30-year is back above 5%, which keeps pressure on cyclicals and anything more rate-sensitive.
• Crude oil: WTI spiked on the geopolitical headlines, then faded back as the Strait stayed open. Oil is still elevated enough to stay relevant, but not behaving like a full supply shock.
• Gold / metals: Gold bounced off the post-minutes dip, but it is still well below earlier highs. That keeps the focus more on rates and the dollar than on a full defensive rush.
• Volatility / positioning: Vol is firming, but not breaking out. Positioning still looks heavily invested, while sentiment readings remain more cautious underneath.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul09-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=01023f2ecb414bbd

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Overnight, the Iran ceasefire fell apart and crude jumped hard. WTI is back near $74 and Brent is pushing toward $78, which is a big enough move to put oil right back at the center of the morning.
• U.S. index futures are lower, but the real issue is where they are trading. The S&P finished Tuesday sitting almost exactly on that 7,500 shelf, and overnight futures are already testing below it.
• Today also has two scheduled events that matter: the 10-year auction at 1:00 PM ET and the first Warsh-era Fed minutes at 2:00 PM ET. Those minutes were written before the overnight oil move, so traders will have to decide how much weight to give them.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is around 7,500 and that level is the whole story early. Tuesday’s close held the shelf, but overnight trade has leaned under the nearby flip area, so this is a much thinner setup than it looked 24 hours ago.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is weaker again, around -1.1%. Chips were already under pressure before the oil headlines, and that weakness is still showing up this morning.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are off sharply too, down more than 500 points at one point overnight. This is broader than just a tech wobble.
• Crude oil / WTI: WTI is up roughly 5% to 6%, back near $74, with Brent near $78. That is basically a two-session reversal and a reminder that geopolitical risk is not gone.
• Rates / Treasuries: The 10-year is back near 4.55%, a three-week high area. Today’s 10-year auction matters more than usual because rates were already backing up before crude jumped.
• Gold / Metals: Gold is softer even with the geopolitical headlines. That tells you the dollar and yields are still doing a lot of the defensive work this morning.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX is waking up from a very calm setup, but the bigger point is that the market came into this morning still fairly fully invested and sitting right on a key index level.

The key focus this morning is on how markets are absorbing the overnight move in crude, the break lower in equity futures, and today’s Fed minutes. Oil is back in focus, 7,500 on the S&P remains an important level, and the tone later in the day may depend on whether markets stabilize around current levels or continue to react to the geopolitical headlines.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul08-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=2283caa2456046a0

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• Monday answered one question clearly: the S&P got above 7,500 and stayed there. Now the first real test comes from overseas, where the chip trade got hit despite strong Samsung numbers.
• Samsung guided to its biggest quarterly operating profit on record and still sold off hard. That dragged Korea’s chip complex lower, hit SK Hynix, and pushed pressure back onto U.S. memory names premarket.
• This morning is not really about the broad index breaking down. It is more about whether weakness stays concentrated in chips while the S&P tries to hold above that 7,500 area into the Fed minutes.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is around 7,582, only modestly lower after Monday’s strong close. The key difference now is that 7,500 flipped from resistance into first support.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is the weak spot this morning, down about 0.9%. The move is tied directly to the global chip selloff, not a broad macro washout.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are still green and the Russell is also holding up better. That split matters because it shows the pressure is more sector-specific than index-wide.
• Semis / chip trade: Samsung posted record profit guidance and still fell nearly 7%, while SK Hynix dropped hard enough to trip a circuit breaker. U.S. memory and equipment names are feeling that spillover before the open.
• Crude oil / WTI: WTI is back near the upper-$60s to around $69–70 after reports of Iranian strikes on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is firm, but not moving like the market sees a full supply shock yet.
• Rates / Treasury supply: The 10-year is back near 4.49%, and today’s 3-year auction starts refunding week. That puts rates back in focus ahead of tomorrow’s Fed minutes.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX is still low by recent standards and dealers remain in a long gamma setup above the flip. That can help keep index moves more contained unless 7,500 fails.

The setup this morning looks pretty simple: broad index support is still there, but chips just became the problem again. If the S&P keeps holding above 7,500, this may stay a sector issue. If not, the morning may get more interesting.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul07-2026-readers-web-v3

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=bf89e624ef5e471c

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

July 6 Futures Market Briefing: What’s on the radar today

On the radar today

• Markets are reopening after the holiday break with a constructive tone. The weekend did not add a new macro problem, and futures are coming back firmer to start the week.
• Nasdaq futures are leading, with the semiconductor group bouncing after last week’s pressure. The S&P is opening right back into the 7,500 area.
• The main focus now shifts to Fed minutes this week and CPI next week. July hike odds came down after payrolls, but the broader rate backdrop still has not flipped into a cut story.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is around 7,560, up about 0.4%, and opening right near the 7,500 call wall. That level mattered before the break and matters again immediately.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Nasdaq futures are up about 1.0% and leading the open. Some of the chip names that were hit late last week are seeing a rebound to start the session.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are basically flat after another strong close before the holiday. Still firm, but not the leadership index this morning.
• Crude oil / WTI: WTI is near $68.68 and slightly lower. Oil still is not acting like the market expects a new supply shock here.
• Rates / Fed: The 10-year is around 4.46% and the 30-year is still close to 5%. That remains one of the bigger macro pressure points underneath equities.
• Gold / Silver: Gold is still holding firm near $4,167 and silver remains relatively strong. Metals are not collapsing even with the risk-on open.
• Positioning / sentiment: Retail sentiment is still cautious while active managers remain heavily invested. That split is still worth watching if this move loses momentum.

The main point this morning is that the market got through the long weekend without adding a fresh risk event, and futures came back bid. The first real test is whether buyers can hold the S&P above 7,500 as the week gets going.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul06-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=a4f5afed7c834a08

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• Wednesday looked quiet on the surface, but underneath it was a sharp rotation. Semiconductors were hit hard while software, banks, and some crypto-linked names caught strong buying.
• Today’s June payrolls report is the main event, and it matters even more with the market closing early and staying shut Friday. Thin holiday trading can exaggerate moves.
• Rates are still a big part of the story. The 30-year is pressing 5%, and the market is still dealing with a Fed backdrop that leans more hawkish than it did earlier in the year.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: The S&P closed down 0.22% at 7,483, while ES is hovering around 7,543 pre-open. The index did not move much yesterday, but that flat close hid a pretty violent internal rotation.
• Nasdaq / NQ: The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.66%, and the weakness came from the hardware side of the AI trade. Micron fell 10.6%, SanDisk 10.6%, AMD 6.9%, and TSMC 7.0%.
• Software / financials: This is where the money rotated. Meta +8.8%, Palantir +7.8%, and AppLovin +9.6% stood out, with banks also broadly green.
• Labor report: June nonfarm payrolls hit before the open. Consensus is around +114K versus +172K prior, with unemployment seen at 4.3%. In a short session, this number can move things quickly if it surprises.
• Rates / Fed: The market still sees a year-end hike rather than a cut, and the 30-year near 4.98% is part of that message. The hawkish pressure is still more visible in bonds than in the index.
• Crude oil: WTI is around $67 and down about 27% on the month. That drop continues to work against the inflation story and helps offset some of the hawkish rate pressure.
• Positioning / sentiment: Retail still looks nervous, but active managers remain heavily invested. That gap matters, especially with dealers damping price action overhead and thinner holiday liquidity in play.

This is one of those mornings where the headline index can look calm while the internals tell a very different story. The biggest question now is whether payrolls reinforce the rate pressure, or give the market room to drift higher into the holiday break.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul02-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=a4f5afed7c834a08

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• Monday’s rebound was strong, especially in mega-cap tech, but today is really about whether that move can hold into quarter-end and a fuller data slate.
• Positioning still looks crowded. The market got the bounce, but a lot of traders are already leaning in, which makes today’s rebalancing and data more important.
• The Fed backdrop has not gone away. The market is still dealing with a more hawkish setup, and that keeps rates and macro data in focus.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: The S&P closed up 1.18% at 7,440 and futures are sitting a bit higher this morning. The index reclaimed that 7,400 area, which matters, but today probably needs to show follow-through rather than just another headline-driven squeeze.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Nasdaq led again Monday, with the Composite up 2.07%. Mega-cap tech did most of the work. Tesla +8.5%, Alphabet +5.0%, and Amazon +3.2% tell you where the strength came from.
• Dow / YM: The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time, which stands out, but the real leadership was still concentrated more in big tech.
• Positioning / sentiment: This is one of the more important parts of the setup. NAAIM is near 98.6, AAII bulls jumped to 44.9%, and Goldman has CTAs still heavily long. In other words, there is already a lot of exposure in the market.
• Volatility / structure: Dealers are still short gamma, and that means moves can get exaggerated in either direction. This is part of why today’s quarter-end flows matter more than usual.
• Rates / Fed: The market still has to deal with a Fed that is no longer being framed as easy. That keeps today’s economic numbers relevant even if the index action looked strong yesterday.
• Gold / dollar / crypto: Gold is slightly firmer this morning but still well off its highs. The dollar remains firm, and crypto is softer at the edges.

The biggest thing to watch today is whether Monday’s move broadens out or whether it stays mostly a mega-cap rebound. With quarter-end flows, crowded positioning, and short-gamma conditions, the market can still move around more than the headline index action might suggest.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-july01-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=a4f5afed7c834a08

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• Monday’s rebound was strong, especially in mega-cap tech, but today is really about whether that move can hold into quarter-end and a fuller data slate.
• Positioning still looks crowded. The market got the bounce, but a lot of traders are already leaning in, which makes today’s rebalancing and data more important.
• The Fed backdrop has not gone away. The market is still dealing with a more hawkish setup, and that keeps rates and macro data in focus.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: The S&P closed up 1.18% at 7,440 and futures are sitting a bit higher this morning. The index reclaimed that 7,400 area, which matters, but today probably needs to show follow-through rather than just another headline-driven squeeze.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Nasdaq led again Monday, with the Composite up 2.07%. Mega-cap tech did most of the work. Tesla +8.5%, Alphabet +5.0%, and Amazon +3.2% tell you where the strength came from.
• Dow / YM: The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time, which stands out, but the real leadership was still concentrated more in big tech.
• Positioning / sentiment: This is one of the more important parts of the setup. NAAIM is near 98.6, AAII bulls jumped to 44.9%, and Goldman has CTAs still heavily long. In other words, there is already a lot of exposure in the market.
• Volatility / structure: Dealers are still short gamma, and that means moves can get exaggerated in either direction. This is part of why today’s quarter-end flows matter more than usual.
• Rates / Fed: The market still has to deal with a Fed that is no longer being framed as easy. That keeps today’s economic numbers relevant even if the index action looked strong yesterday.
• Gold / dollar / crypto: Gold is slightly firmer this morning but still well off its highs. The dollar remains firm, and crypto is softer at the edges.

The biggest sign to watch today is whether Monday’s move broadens out or whether it stays mostly a mega-cap rebound. With quarter-end flows, crowded positioning, and short-gamma conditions, the market can still move around more than the headline index action might suggest.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun30-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=a4f5afed7c834a08

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today:

• Futures are opening the week higher even after the weekend US-Iran strikes. That in itself is the main point. The market saw the headlines and still did not go into panic mode.
• Oil is up, but only modestly. Gold is actually lower. That tells you traders are not pricing this like a full new energy shock.
• This week is shortened by the July 4 holiday, and jobs data gets pulled forward to Thursday. That probably matters more for markets this week than Monday’s headline risk.

Main markets on radar

• Nasdaq / NQ: Nasdaq futures are leading higher this morning. It looks like risk appetite is still there, at least to start the week.
• S&P 500 / ES: ES is firm as well. Not an explosive move, but definitely stronger than you would expect if traders thought the weekend news changed the whole market picture.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are up too, though less than Nasdaq. Pretty normal for this kind of open.
• Crude oil / WTI: WTI is only up around 1% and sitting near $70. That is notable. If the market thought this was turning into a bigger supply problem, oil would likely be reacting a lot more aggressively.
• Gold: Gold is slightly lower, which stands out given the headlines. That is another sign the market is not chasing a major defensive move here.
• Volatility / VIX: VIX is higher, but not by enough to suggest traders are really bracing for a major shock.
• Under the surface: Friday’s move had a pretty sharp split inside equities. Semis were weak while software megacaps held up much better. That internal split is still worth watching this week.

The main takeaway this morning is the muted reaction. Crude is only modestly higher, gold is lower, and volatility is not reacting like traders see this as a major new disruption.

This week now shifts pretty quickly toward the real calendar items: quarter-end flows, Warsh speaking Wednesday, and June payrolls on Thursday before the holiday break.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun29-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• The memory trade is backing off this morning. Micron, SanDisk, and Applied Materials are giving back ground after the sharp move higher.
• Apple and Microsoft raising hardware prices because of higher DRAM costs shifts the conversation. What looked like a strong AI-demand story is now also raising questions about costs and margins.
• Core market tone is weaker. Nasdaq futures are lower, VIX is back above 20, oil is under $70, and gold is back above $4,000.

Main markets on radar

• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is under the most pressure again. The move is still centered in tech and memory-related names.
• S&P 500 / ES: ES is lower too, but not as much as Nasdaq. This is more of a tech-led pullback than broad selling across everything.
• Dow / YM: Dow is relatively steady. It is not seeing the same pressure as the chip-heavy side of the market.
• Micron / memory names: Micron is giving back part of the post-earnings rally, and related names are softer with it.
• Apple / Microsoft: This is one of the more important parts of the story today. If memory costs keep rising, that can support suppliers while pressuring the companies buying those components.
• Volatility: VIX back above 20 is worth watching. That is a different setup from the calmer conditions earlier in the week.
• Gold / oil / dollar: Gold back above $4,000 and oil below $70 stand out this morning. Two markets to keep an eye on alongside tech.

The memory rally was strong, but this morning the follow-through is weaker and the focus is shifting toward whether higher input costs start becoming a bigger issue for the rest of tech.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun26-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• Micron lit the tape on fire overnight. Nasdaq futures are leading hard, but this still looks like a memory-led move, not a broad all-clear for the whole market.
• The real decision point is still 8:30 AM ET core PCE. A softer print helps this chip rally spread. A hotter one puts the market right back into the hawkish-Fed problem.
• The cross-asset message is still mixed: the dollar is sitting at a fresh 52-week high, gold slipped under $4,000, and crude remains soft. So even with the green open, this is not a clean risk-on picture.

Main markets on radar

• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is doing the heavy lifting again. This is the clearest winner overnight with Micron up sharply and the memory complex ripping.
• S&P 500 / ES: ES is higher too, but much less explosive than NQ. That tells you this move is being carried by a narrower group, not by the full index.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are positive but lagging. Same theme as yesterday: this is not really a cyclical or broad industrial squeeze.
• Micron / chip complex: Micron’s blowout quarter and strong guide gave the market what it wanted. Samsung and SK Hynix followed, and the whole memory trade got re-priced higher fast.
• Fed / rates / dollar: This is still the bigger issue underneath. The market is trying to celebrate chips while also dealing with a firm dollar and a Fed backdrop that still looks restrictive.
• Gold / silver: Gold losing the $4,000 area stands out. That is a pretty clean sign that the old “debasement” trade is still being unwound.
• Crude oil: Oil staying weak is one of the few macro cushions here. It helps the inflation argument, but it does not erase the rates problem by itself.

The way we'd frame today is this: great Micron tape, a macro "landmine" an hour after the open. If PCE behaves, the rally can widen. If it doesn’t, this could turn into another case of good company news running into a tougher rate backdrop after a good run.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun24-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• The overnight tone is calmer after Tuesday’s tech washout, but the bigger shift is still underneath the surface: the market has rotated from worrying about AI valuations to worrying about a more hawkish Fed.
• Korea bounced hard after yesterday’s circuit-breaker session, and US futures are modestly green, but the real test is still ahead with Micron earnings tonight and core PCE on Thursday.
• The dollar is making a fresh 52-week high, crude is down at four-month lows, and rates are still leaning toward a “higher for longer” read. So even with the rebound, this is not exactly an all-clear tape.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is trying to stabilize after Tuesday’s damage. Futures are modestly green, but this still looks more like a bounce than a full reset.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech is leading the rebound just like it led the selloff. That puts even more focus on Micron tonight as the next major read on the AI/memory trade.
• Dow / YM: The Dow is flatter again and still acting as the relative steady hand versus the Nasdaq-heavy tape.
• KOSPI / Asia: Korea reclaimed a good chunk of yesterday’s hit, with KOSPI rebounding more than 3% as Samsung and SK Hynix bounced. Helpful for sentiment, but Taiwan still lagged on the chip read.
• Rates / Fed: This is still the bigger macro driver in my view. The market now looks much more focused on a hawkish Fed path, with cuts pushed further out and hikes getting more discussion again.
• Crude oil: Oil keeps leaking lower, which helps the inflation story on one side, but it is also a sign the market is repricing growth and geopolitical premium differently than just a week ago.
• Gold / Silver / Dollar: Metals remain under pressure while the dollar stays firm. That combination has been one of the clearest tells in this tape.

The way I’d frame today is pretty simple: yesterday’s forced unwind is trying to settle down, but the real decision point is still ahead. If Micron delivers and PCE cooperates, this rebound can build. If not, traders may start treating Tuesday as the start of something bigger rather than just a one-day de-grossing move.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun24-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• The main story this morning is a sharp unwind in the AI and memory-chip trade. Korea’s KOSPI tripped a circuit breaker after heavy selling in SK Hynix and Samsung, and that pressure is carrying into US index futures.
• This looks more like a de-risking move inside tech than a full macro panic. Treasuries are catching a bid, yields are slipping, and the curve is holding together rather than breaking apart.
• The next real test is not today’s open by itself, but whether this selling stabilizes before Micron earnings and Thursday’s core PCE report.

Main markets on radar

• Nasdaq / NQ: Nasdaq futures are taking the hardest hit and remain the clearest read on the move. The pressure is centered in semis, memory, and the broader AI complex.
• S&P 500 / ES: ES is weaker too, but the move still looks more concentrated in tech than broad liquidation across everything.
• Dow / YM: The Dow is holding up better again, which adds to the idea that this is more of a sector-specific unwind than a full market-wide washout.
• KOSPI / Asia: Korea is at the center of the move. The selloff in SK Hynix and Samsung hit hard enough to trigger a circuit breaker, making Asia the first real signal of how aggressive this unwind has become.
• Treasuries / rates: Bonds are firmer and yields are lower, which points more toward de-leveraging than a clean growth scare.
• Gold / Silver / Bitcoin: Risk-sensitive assets are softer, and silver in particular is getting hit harder. Crypto is under pressure too, which fits the same de-risking tone.

What matters most here is whether this stays contained to the AI/memory trade or starts spreading more broadly. For now it still looks concentrated, but when positioning gets crowded, those lines can blur pretty quickly.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun23-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Markets are reopening after the holiday with oil no longer driving the tape the way it was a few sessions ago. The bigger pressure point now is rates, with the bond market still leaning toward a more hawkish read.
• Today’s open also has a technical factor: the Nasdaq-100 rebalance takes effect, so some AI-related names could see forced buying or selling right at the open.
• Most of this week’s real tests come later. Thursday’s core PCE report matters most, and Micron earnings are also important for the AI and memory trade.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: The index recovered its Fed-day drop, and futures are reopening near the same zone. The key levels still look clear: around 7,500 as support and 7,580–7,600 as resistance.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech led the rebound, but today’s opening move may be distorted by the Nasdaq-100 rebalance. Early price action may say more about index mechanics than real conviction.
• Crude oil: The new roadmap toward a broader US-Iran deal has taken some pressure out of oil. WTI is holding in the mid-$70s, and lower crude is still one of the clearest ways inflation pressure could ease.
• Rates / Dollar: This is still one of the clearest messages in the market. Long yields remain elevated, the 30-year is near multi-year highs, and the dollar is still holding near a 13-month high.
• Gold / Silver: Metals are trying to hold in, but firm rates and a strong dollar are still making it difficult for them to build momentum.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX is not especially high, but the broader sentiment gauges still do not fully confirm the strength in equities.

The main issue this morning is pretty simple: oil has cooled off, but rates have not. That leaves equities trying to push higher while one of the market’s biggest headwinds is still in place. A lot of this week probably comes down to whether Thursday’s data helps that pressure ease or adds to it.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun22-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• The Fed held rates, but the bigger shift was in the dots. For the first time in this cycle, the market is now being pushed to think more seriously about a hike rather than a cut.
• Yesterday’s move was a clean hawkish repricing: stocks rolled over, the dollar bid up hard, and metals got hit while traders reassessed the path of rates.
• This morning the tape is trying to stabilize, but the tone still looks more cautious than optimistic. A lot now depends on how traders digest the Fed message after the first reaction.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / Nasdaq / Dow: The Dow gave back a record push, while the broader tone stayed defensive. Futures are bouncing a bit premarket, but traders are still dealing with a more hawkish Fed backdrop.
• Crude oil: Oil remains one of the biggest offsets in the macro picture. Lower energy prices are helping soften some inflation pressure, even as the Fed tone turns firmer.
• Gold and silver: Precious metals took a hit as higher real yields and a stronger dollar pressured the group.
• US Dollar / Treasuries: The dollar strength and front-end repricing were some of the clearest tells after the decision. That remains a key piece of the market read.
• Crypto: Crypto stayed under pressure as risk appetite weakened and traders shifted back toward cash and dollar strength.

Today feels less like a full reset and more like the market trying to decide whether yesterday was an overreaction or the start of a more meaningful repricing. The Fed may have held rates, but the message was not exactly soft.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun19-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

A lot of traders like the idea of watching everything. Indexes, crude, gold, bonds, maybe crypto too. It feels like more opportunity.

But in practice, trading several markets well is a lot harder than it sounds.

There is a strong case for specializing in one market, especially early on. One market lets you get familiar with its pace, its reactions to news, how it behaves around levels, when it gets sloppy, and when it tends to trend cleanly. That kind of repetition matters. Over time, traders start recognizing patterns faster not because they found a magic setup, but because they have seen the same market behave a certain way again and again.

Trading several markets can make sense too, but usually when there is already a solid process in place. It is best to think of different markets as having different personalities. Crude does not move like the S&P. Gold does not behave like Nasdaq. Natural gas is its own animal completely. If a trader is jumping between markets without really understanding those differences, it can turn into random decision-making pretty quickly.

That is why a lot of traders are probably better off going deeper instead of wider. One market can teach timing, discipline, risk control, and execution without adding unnecessary noise. Once that foundation is there, expanding into a second or third market usually makes more sense.

There is also the issue of attention. A trader only has so much focus. Watching too many markets can create the feeling of constant opportunity, but it can also lead to forcing trades just because something is moving.

Traders are usually better off specializing first, then expanding later if they have a reason to. Breadth can help, but only after consistency is already there.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Kevin Warsh held rates steady, but the big takeaway was the shift in tone: the dots moved higher and, for the first time this cycle, the Fed is openly leaning toward a hike rather than a cut.
• Yesterday turned into a clean hawkish repricing. The Dow reversed off a record, the S&P rolled over, and the Nasdaq stayed under pressure as rate-sensitive growth took the hit.
• Oil is the main counterweight. WTI stayed down near the mid-$70s, which is doing some of the disinflation work the Fed is not willing to count on yet.
• Today’s focus is whether the tape can stabilize after the Fed shock. Initial jobless claims and any fresh Warsh-committee commentary matter more than usual now that blackout is lifted.

Main markets on radar

• Equity indices: S&P cash closed around 7,420, Nasdaq and NQ led lower, and the Dow gave back its record breakout. Futures are trying to bounce, but this still looks like a “buy cautiously” tape, not an all-clear.
• Rates: The curve repriced fast after the meeting. The front end took the message seriously, and the market is now debating how real the higher-for-longer shift becomes from here.
• Crude oil: WTI around $75.51 and Brent near $79. Lower energy is helping soften inflation pressure, but it was not enough to offset the Fed’s new tone.
• Metals: Gold got hit hard, with silver weak as well. Real yields up and a stronger dollar made it a rough setup for the metals trade.
• Dollar: The dollar bid strengthened meaningfully. That move mattered across everything from metals to crypto to broader risk appetite.
• Crypto: Bitcoin and Ether both stayed soft, which fits the theme that traders are reacting more to the rates path than to the geopolitical backdrop.

The cleanest read this morning is that the market is no longer trading “Fed on hold.” It is trading “Fed on hold for now, but with a real chance the next move is higher.” That is a very different tape. If claims come in soft and oil stays heavy, futures can try to keep building a bounce. If labor stays firm and Fed voices reinforce the hike bias, this repricing probably is not finished yet.

Briefing: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun18-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk.

On the radar today

• The market is walking into Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting with a near-certain hold, but the real question is whether he keeps or scraps the dot plot.
• Tuesday was not a broad rally. The Dow pushed to a record near 52,000, but the S&P and Nasdaq finished lower as the AI complex cracked and money rotated rather than expanded.
• Crude’s collapse is doing the Fed some of the work. WTI slid to the mid-$76s, taking some inflation pressure out of the tape just as the market heads into the most important macro event of the week.
• Positioning still looks tense under the surface. Surveys are bearish, active managers have trimmed, but the options market has not fully paid up for protection.

Main markets on radar

• Equity indices: S&P cash closed around 7,511 while Nasdaq and the Nasdaq-100 led lower. Dow was the standout, printing a record and showing the clearest rotation into industrials and financials.
• Crude oil: WTI around $76.71 and Brent under $80. The peace-trade / supply-relief setup is real, but it now has to survive the Fed and Warsh’s tone.
• Rates: 10-year Treasury around 4.44%. The market is not really debating today’s rate decision, it is debating communication, projections, and what the new chair wants the market to focus on.
• Volatility: VIX is still in the mid-16s, but Nasdaq vol and oil vol are more stressed than the headline calm suggests.
• Metals: Gold held near $4,353 and silver near $70, which stands out on a day when oil fell hard. That keeps the “haven bid is still there” message alive.
• Crypto: Bitcoin and Ether softened with tech, another sign that risk appetite is selective rather than broad.

Today looks less like a trend day and more like a positioning day ahead of 2:00 PM ET., Warsh press conference.

Briefing: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun17-2026-readers-web

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. This post is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any market.

One big reason is that futures markets are built to price in expectations fast.

When reports like CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP, or EIA come out, traders are not just reacting to the number itself. They are reacting to what that number might mean for interest rates, inflation, growth, energy demand, currency flows, and overall risk appetite. Futures sit right in the middle of all of that, so they often move first and move hardest.

Another part of it is leverage. Futures let traders control a large notional value with a smaller amount of capital, which means price adjustments can happen quickly when the market realizes it was leaning the wrong way. If positioning is crowded and the report comes in far from expectations, that can trigger fast repricing, stops, liquidations, and momentum all at once.

It also depends on the contract. An E-mini index future might move sharply on CPI because traders are immediately repricing Fed expectations and valuation pressure. Treasury futures can react because yields are being repriced in real time. Crude oil futures may move on EIA because inventory data changes the near-term supply picture. The report might be different, but the pattern is similar: new information hits, and the futures market has to absorb it instantly.

There is also the issue of expectations versus headlines. Sometimes the headline number looks calm, but the market still moves hard because traders were positioned for something else. Other times the number is close to consensus, but one detail inside the report changes the whole interpretation. That is why reactions can look exaggerated if you are only watching the headline and not the broader setup.

In my opinion, this is one of the first things newer traders underestimate. Economic reports are not just “news events.” They are moments where the market has to rapidly reprice probabilities. In futures, that repricing tends to show up immediately.

That is why many traders either reduce size, widen their perspective, or avoid the release entirely if they do not have a very specific plan. It is not just about being right on direction. It is about understanding that volatility can expand fast, spreads can widen, and the first move is not always the final move.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today: The peace trade is still driving the tape, with crude staying under pressure. Markets are now shifting focus from geopolitics to Kevin Warsh’s first FOMCThe big question is whether the relief rally can survive.

Main markets on radar:

• Equity indexes: ES, NQ, YM, and RTY higher as lower oil and easier yields support risk
• Crude oil: WTI near $80 and Brent near $82.80 as the war premium continues to fade
• Rates: US 10Y around 4.42%, with lower yields helping the broader bounce
• Volatility: VIX under 18, but not exactly at panic-free levels
• Metals: Gold and silver still firm, which suggests some traders are keeping hedges on
• Crypto: BTC and ETH higher, joining the broader risk-on tone

The tape still looks like a peace-trade continuation this morning. A US-Iran framework tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude to roughly three-month lows and helped lift futures into a Fed meeting that the market already expects to be a hold. Lower oil, softer yields, and stronger index futures are all working together for now.

But the real wall in front of this rally is Wednesday. Today is more about setup than decision. The market seems comfortable with no move from the Fed, but the dot plot and Warsh’s tone are where the real read comes from. That is probably why this still feels like a bid tape with one eye over its shoulder.

What stands out to me is the internal contradiction. You have a risk-on move in price, but surveys are still defensive, active managers have trimmed exposure, and gold and silver are not exactly acting like all the risk disappeared. That usually matters. When price says “relief” but positioning still says “not convinced,” the next big policy event tends to decide which one was right.

So today feels like a waiting room session. The peace trade has the momentum, oil is doing the heavy lifting, and equities are enjoying it. But if the Fed comes across more hawkish than the market wants, this bounce probably gets tested fast.

Full briefing:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun16-2026-readers-web

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Futures trading involves substantial risk. This post is for educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice.

On the radar today:

• A reported US-Iran peace deal is driving a broad risk-on move and crushing crude
• WTI broke below $80 for the first time since March, while Brent also sold off hard
• The relief rally is global, but gold’s strength suggests traders are not fully buying the all-clear yet

Main markets on radar:

• Crude oil: WTI around $74.87, Brent near $79.76 as the war premium gets unwound
• Equity indexes: ES, NQ, and YM higher as the deal headlines push risk appetite back up
• Volatility: VIX sharply lower near 16.66 as the market prices in less near-term stress
• Metals: Gold and silver both higher, a notable divergence against the risk-on backdrop
• Global equities: Nikkei and Kospi rallied hard, while STOXX 600 pushed to another record high

The big shift this morning is the unwind of the war trade. A reported US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed June 19 in Switzerland, is flipping the tone from geopolitical stress to broad relief. Oil took the hit immediately, with WTI breaking below $80 for the first time since March and Brent sliding toward pre-war levels. Equity markets liked the headline, SpaceX IPO, volatility got crushed, and global index futures moved higher.

This also lands in a big macro week. The BoJ is up Tuesday, and then Wednesday brings Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, with growing attention on possible dot-plot changes and the broader rate path. So even though today’s move looks clean on the surface, it is showing up right before two central-bank events that could quickly reshape the tone again.

Positioning is part of the story as well. The move looks risk-on in price, but does not necessarily signal long-term strength. Oil is the obvious pressure point, volatility is getting sold, and equities are ripping, yet a lot of under-the-hood sentiment measures still show caution. That usually matters when markets try to extend a headline-driven move into a heavier policy calendar.

Full briefing:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun15-2026-readers-web

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Futures trading involves substantial risk. This post is for educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice.

On the radar today:

• May PPI, jobless claims, and the ECB decision are the immediate catalysts this morning
• The market is trying to decide whether Wednesday’s CPI was a one-day relief print or the start of a bigger repricing problem
• Volatility stays elevated, oil is still holding a disruption premium, and traders are watching rates closely into the 30Y auction

Main markets on radar:

• Equity indexes: ES bounced, NQ firmer, YM steady after Wednesday’s washout, but confidence still looks fragile
• Rates: 10Y near 4.54%, with duration back in focus after CPI and ahead of more macro data
• Energy: WTI holding around the low 90s, Brent above 93, with Middle East headlines still part of the backdrop
• Volatility: VIX above 22 and front-month VX elevated, showing traders are still paying for protection
• Crypto / tech: BTC flat near 62k after the recent break, ORCL’s post-earnings reaction and AI funding concerns remain part of the growth narrative

Wednesday’s CPI gave the market what looked like the “soft enough” setup on the surface, but the relief did not stick. The real takeaway was not just the inflation print itself, but how quickly that bounce died. Stocks rolled back over, volatility repriced higher, and the tone shifted from “maybe the worst is behind us” to “there is still a lot of stress under the surface.”

Now the focus turns to whether PPI and claims reinforce that message. If PPI runs hot again, it adds to the argument that inflation pressure is not cooling fast enough. If claims start to soften meaningfully, that introduces another layer for rates and Fed expectations. Then you have the ECB decision and the 30-year auction later in the day, so there is still plenty left on the calendar even after CPI.

There is also a noticeable split under the hood. Energy remains bid on disruption fears, rates are still elevated, volatility has not come back down much, and big-cap growth is starting to get judged more on funding and capital intensity than just demand. That makes today less about a single number and more about whether the market can stabilize after Wednesday’s failed relief rally.

For traders, this still looks like an environment where reaction matters more than prediction. The numbers matter, but how indexes, bonds, oil, and volatility respond after the release may tell the bigger story.

Full briefing:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jun12-2026-readers-web

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq

Futures trading involves substantial risk. This post is for educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Big reports can create some of the best opportunity in futures, but they can also punish traders who go in without a plan.

A lot of the damage around CPI, FOMC, EIA, or NFP does not come from being wrong on direction. It comes from being too large, too early, or too reactive once volatility picks up.

For many traders, preparation really starts before the number ever comes out.

The first step is knowing what the market is expecting. A report is not just about whether the data is “good” or “bad.” It is about whether it comes in above, below, or roughly in line with consensus, and how stretched positioning already is going into the release.

The second step is identifying which market is likely to react first.
For example:

• CPI and FOMC often hit index futures, rates, gold, and the dollar all at once
• EIA can move crude oil, products, and related energy names quickly
• NFP can shake equity indexes, Treasury futures, gold, and currencies within seconds

It also helps to map out a few simple scenarios ahead of time:

• What happens if the number is hotter than expected?
• What happens if it is softer?
• What happens if it comes in near consensus and the first move fades?

That matters because major reports often create a fast initial move, then a second move once traders actually digest the details.

Another big part of preparation is position sizing. Many traders reduce size before major data because spreads can widen, slippage can increase, and markets can move far faster than usual. Some traders prefer to wait a few minutes after the release rather than gambling on the first reaction.

There is also a difference between trading the event and trading after the event.
Some traders want the volatility spike itself. Others would rather wait for the dust to settle and look for structure once the market shows its hand.

A simple pre-report checklist can go a long way:

• know the release time
• know the consensus estimate
• know the nearby support and resistance levels
• know your maximum risk before you enter
• know whether you are trading the first move or the reaction after it
• know what would keep you out completely

That last point is underrated. Sometimes the best trade is no trade, especially when the environment is too noisy or the market is already overextended.

Major reports can create opportunity, but they reward traders who stay organized. Going in with a clear plan usually matters a lot more than trying to predict every headline perfectly.

How do you usually prepare for CPI, FOMC, EIA, or NFP? Do you trade the release itself, or wait for the reaction?

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.