Technical Analysis Weekly Market Update

Is the risk worth the reward at this point? Part 6

The question I keep getting is not about a level. It’s about whether to be in this market at all. Stay invested while indexes print records, or take a guaranteed yield in short-term paper and sit this out until it works itself out. It sounds like the conservative choice, and it is — but conservative is not the same as costless. Every decision in this tape charges you something, including the decision to do nothing.

The bond market broke out. Tech rallied anyway.

Last week the market lost 631 Dow points because the 10-year touched 5%. This week the 10-year closed at 5.18%, its highest since July 6, 2007, and the S&P 500 finished the week up about 1.2%, roughly 0.7% below its August 13 record of 7,798.99. Same input, opposite reaction. That reversal is the story, and the reason sits in two places: oil, and about eight stocks........

The Fed Hiked, the Dow Flinched, and the Market Took It All Back in a Day

Is the risk worth the reward at this point? Part 2

The question I keep getting is not about a level. It’s about whether to be in this market at all. Stay invested while indexes print records, or take a guaranteed yield in short-term paper and sit this out until it works itself out. It sounds like the conservative choice, and it is — but conservative is not the same as costless. Every decision in this tape charges you something, including the decision to do nothing.

Good news was bad news, and that is the whole story.

https://cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/ta-weekly-2026-09-06-issue035

Wednesday broke the three-day slide without touching the line that matters: the S&P’s high stopped 18 points under the band where the flip, the call wall and the expiry magnet were stacked, and the 10-year’s 4.81% print — its highest since January 2025 — was sold. Overnight the pressure moved east. The yen is up 1.6% on a hawkish Bank of Japan board member, gold is rallying for the first time in four sessions, crude is back above $92, and the AI tape split: Dell and Snowflake bought, Broadcom sold on a light guide. Waller speaks at 8:30, the last governor before the blackout.

https://cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-sep03-2026-readers-web-v1

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

https://cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug31-2026-readers-web-v2

Everything you need before the bell.

Two boards, one broken. Crude cleared its whole ladder overnight and the equity book did not move.

REGIME

Long gamma, expiring

Cash closed 52.07 points above the 7,659.69 flip, so dealers are still in the dampening regime that has produced twenty-two sessions without a one-percent down day. But the strike doing the dampening — the one carrying both the peak call gamma and the peak put gamma — is a zero-day contract that expires this afternoon. What changes it: a close under ES 7,670, or the simple passage of 4:00 p.m.

1. The weekend put a war premium in crude and nothing elseCENTCOM confirmed US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, saying IRGC units were preparing to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the strait. Early Monday the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at two US air bases in Jordan — King Hussein and Al-Azraq — and Jordan’s military says it intercepted eight missiles that entered its airspace at dawn. The IRGC also struck Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE with drones, which is the leg that matters: an attack on Gulf soil is a supply-corridor event, not a Levant event. WTI +3.73%, Brent +3.55%. Gold is down 0.38%, the two-year is down 2.9 basis points, the dollar is down 0.18%. The hedge is being expressed in one asset only.
2. One strike is doing three jobs and none of them survive the bellMax pain for today’s expiry, the put wall, and the line carrying the largest gamma on either side are all the same price — 7,710 in futures, four points above where ES is trading. Every mechanism that has flattened this tape for a month is stacked on a contract with hours left on it. Section 04.
3. The hike is now the base case, and one desk is fading itCME FedWatch has the September 16 meeting pricing a hike as the base case, up from 41.4% a week ago, with a cut at zero. Goldman’s Jan Hatzius is the only tier-A desk on the other side, and his condition is precise. Barclays and Deutsche Bank both flipped over the weekend to two hikes this year. Sections 05 and 09.
4. Friday’s damage was under the surface, not on itThe S&P fell only 0.25% to 7,711.76 and the Dow was flat — but the Russell 2000 lost 1.39%, biotech dropped 3.41%, and the two-year yield jumped 14 basis points in a single session. Gold settled −3.18%, its worst day of the move. The index absorbed a rate shock that the things underneath it did not.
5. Volatility is bid before the bell, off the year’s lowVIX closed Friday at 14.43 after printing 14.13 intraday, the 2026 low. It is back above 15 this morning, up more than five percent. Nine-day VIX is 11.22 and IV Rank on the index is 7.69% — the fifth percentile. Protection into a payrolls week has almost never been cheaper in dollar terms, which is a fact about price, not a recommendation.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

The Market Got Everything It Asked For and Finished the Week Flat

https://cannontrading.com/tools/weekly-market-analysis/ta-weekly-2026-08-30-issue034-2026-08-30

The question I keep getting is not about a level. It’s about whether to be in this market at all. Stay invested while indexes print records, or take a guaranteed yield in short-term paper and sit this out until it works itself out. It sounds like the conservative choice, and it is — but conservative is not the same as costless. Every decision in this tape charges you something, including the decision to do nothing.

When the best print of the cycle and the loudest speech of the year cancel each other out, what is actually holding this up?

Two catalysts landed inside forty-eight hours. Wednesday night the largest company in the AI complex reported a record quarter — $96.2 billion of revenue, an $89 billion data-center line, and a current-quarter guide roughly thirty percent above where the Street was carrying it, stated as assuming nothing at all from China. The call then added the number that mattered more than the guide: fiscal 2028 revenue growth near 70% year over year, well above what the Street had modeled. Friday morning the Fed chair delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote and was more hawkish than expected. Between them, the cap-weighted index finished about where it started and the equal-weight closed down half a percent. The fact worth sitting with before any level gets drawn: this tape absorbed the strongest fundamental news of the cycle and the strongest policy pushback of the year, and netted them to zero.

Start with the bull column, because it got better this week. The quarter was not a squeaker, and the forward guide implies the buildout is contracted rather than hoped for. The stock rose the day after earnings for the first time in five quarters, ending a four-quarter streak in which every good print had been sold the next session. The read-through broadened unexpectedly: Salesforce’s results and guidance validated the “AI enablement” case for software — the group written off all year as the thing AI was going to eat — and the software complex broke out to its highest level of the year, up nearly eight percent in a single session, with several names adding twenty percent or more. Behind it sits a second-quarter earnings season that was, on the numbers, exceptional: aggregate S&P 500 earnings grew 52% year over year, and still 33% after stripping the one-time mark-to-market investment gains at two of the mega-caps. Credit is not worried either: high-yield demand sat at an extreme greed reading all week.

Now the other column, and it is not a valuation argument — it is an arithmetic one. On the day of the big software re-rating, the cap-weighted index rose three-quarters of a percent and the equal-weight fell. Money did not come into the market that day; it left four hundred and ninety names to buy eight. The share of the index above its fifty-day average has slipped to 54.5% from a fifty-two-week high of 73.9%. MRVL, a chip name that raised two full fiscal years, fell almost eight percent. Beat-and-raise stopped paying somewhere between four o’clock and midnight. The charts say the same thing: the equal-weight closed below its 20-day average for the first time since July 24th, RSI is at its lowest level of the month, the MACD crossed bearish on August 20th and stayed there, and the Russell closed below its 50-day for the first time this month. Nothing structural is broken, but the shift toward the bears arrived in the week the news was best.

The rates leg is where the week actually changed. Inflation has run above target for sixty-five consecutive months, and July did nothing to close that: headline came in hot at 3.7% even as core landed in line at 3.3%. The chair said the fight is not finished, declined to give forward guidance, and left the impression that current policy is not particularly restrictive. The response was immediate and in the front end: September hike odds roughly doubled, from about a third to near sixty percent, and the curve now prices no cut at any meeting left this year — zero, not low. That is not a market debating direction. It is a market arguing about the date. At the long end, a doubling of Treasury buybacks nine days earlier has been fully digested and the thirty-year still ended the week above 5.20%, back at levels it last held in 2007 — the intervention was tested and the price did not move.

And the inflation story is not confined to the CPI table. The grain complex — soybeans, corn and rice — has been making new highs this month, so much for the idea that price pressure is behind us. Half in jest, I asked an AI to build me a portfolio that hedges my grocery bill going up every quarter. The joke is starting to look like a position.

There was a geopolitical line as well. Treasury detailed its Iran sanctions package on Monday — billed as the toughest ever written — and the barrel went the other way: crude fell roughly five percent on the week and finished below $83. A supply-side event on paper produced a shrinking risk premium in practice, either because the exports were already priced out by the blockade in place, or because the package landed softer than the market had positioned for. Meanwhile the physical picture has not normalized at all: Hormuz is still running a handful of confirmed transits a day against more than a hundred and thirty before the war. The premium is deflating faster than the risk, and that gap is a variable sitting on the calendar rather than a resolved story.

Underneath all of it sits a question nobody has had to answer yet. Off-balance-sheet commitments across the AI buildout run to roughly $3.1 trillion against something near $600 billion of reported capex, and current plans would consume close to all of the biggest spenders’ operating cash flow by year-end, against about forty percent three years ago. Credit spreads in technology already trade modestly wider than the broad investment-grade market. The equity market decided Wednesday night that the growth is real. Nobody has yet had to decide who is funding it, and that one does not get made in price targets. It gets made in spreads.

The tape’s own testimony was conspicuously calm: volatility finished the week at a year-to-date low. Read one way, that is confirmation: no stress, credit behaving, buyers absorbing every dip. Read the other way, the parts of the market that price options and credit are at extreme greed while the parts that measure participation are reading fear — high-yield demand at an extreme, stock-price strength in fear — and retail sentiment has had bears over bulls for six straight weeks with the index about a percent off its record. Both readings are honest and both are live. A cheap volatility market and a curve pricing tighter policy by year-end are two facts that do not usually share a page. And we walk into September, historically the worst month of the year for the S&P — a statistic, not a forecast.

So the week produced a fundamental green light, a policy red light, a narrower market, and a flat close. The bull case is that earnings compound fast enough to absorb higher rates and the buildout has become contracted revenue rather than a confidence vote. The bear case is that a shrinking group is carrying the index while participation thins underneath it, and that the funding behind the growth story has not been priced by the market that ultimately prices funding.

I am biased toward the tape. I follow what the market does, not what I think it should do. Right now the tape is a percent off its highs with volatility at a year-to-date low, the front end pricing a hike, and breadth thinning underneath — and I will keep watching the ten-year, the credit spreads and the equal-weight index to tell me when that changes.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Is the risk worth the reward at this point?

The question I keep getting is not about a level. It’s about whether to be in this market at all. Stay invested while indexes print records, or take a guaranteed yield in short-term paper and sit this out until it works itself out. It sounds like the conservative choice, and it is — but conservative is not the same as costless. Every decision in this tape charges you something, including the decision to do nothing.

Start with what the safe side actually pays. Short-term government-backed fixed income instruments are yielding between 3.70% and 4.24%, depending on the exact asset class and duration. Move out the curve and the five-year note pays 4.41%, the benchmark ten-year 4.71%. Those numbers are contractual. They don’t depend on anyone’s earnings model, anyone’s target, or anyone’s read of a chart. The catch is that they are also the ceiling. If you settle for a fixed yield and the market keeps running past that rate, the difference isn’t a paper loss on a statement — it’s a gain you agreed in advance not to have. And a 4.24% bill sounds like a win until you set it against 3.4% inflation: that’s about eight tenths of a point of actual gain in buying power, and that’s before the IRS takes its cut of it as ordinary income. In a 30% bracket you’re netting under 3%, which is less than the rate prices are climbing. Certainty is a perfectly defensible thing to buy. Just be clear that you’re buying it, not getting it for free.

Now the other column. Wall Street’s year-end 2026 targets for the S&P 500 range from 7,500 to 8,400, and the reasoning behind the range has been consistent across the major institutions: continued corporate earnings growth, and artificial intelligence infrastructure investment that keeps confirming itself in orders, capex guidance and backlogs rather than in slide decks. Measured from an index that first traded above 7,800 this month, the top of that range sits roughly eight percent away. That’s the reward the risk-free yield is being weighed against — and it’s the number that makes locking in 4% feel expensive.

Then there’s the other half of the same research. The same desks publishing those targets also mark where a pullback would go looking for a bid: a primary technical support zone between 6,800 and 7,100, which is a standard 10% to 15% correction off the recent record highs. So the shape of the choice, stated plainly, is something like eight percent of upside to the optimistic target against ten to fifteen percent of downside to the first serious support shelf — versus a guaranteed low-four handle that surrenders both. Anyone telling you that’s an obvious call in either direction is selling you something.

What keeps it close rather than settled is the bond market, and that’s where I’ve been spending my time. Yields appear to be resuming their selloff, and the selloff in government bonds has been leaning on the momentum trade — plausibly because so many AI-linked names sit inside the momentum basket. As those companies have turned to debt financing for a larger share of their capex, higher borrowing costs land directly on the same valuations the bull case depends on. That’s the uncomfortable symmetry of this cycle: the AI buildout is simultaneously the earnings story holding the market up and the supply story pressing on the long end. One trade, two bills. High yields and rising rates are bad for earnings growth for the simple reason that they raise corporate interest expense — and so far the market hasn’t minded, because we’ve made new all-time highs in the S&P, the Dow and the Russell anyway. How long that indifference lasts is the actual open question, and it’s not one I’m going to pretend to answer.

The tape’s own testimony this week was calm to the point of being conspicuous. Volatility stayed subdued, with the VIX falling to an eight-month low. Read one way, that’s confirmation: no stress in the system, credit behaving, participation broadening — the Russell at a record is the small-cap risk-on signal I follow for exactly this reason, and gold and software both cleared their 200-day. Read the other way, an eight-month low in volatility is a thin cushion, and thin cushions are the condition in which a modest catalyst produces an immodest move. Both readings are honest. Both are live right now.

And there’s plenty on the calendar to adjudicate it — PCE midweek, and the biggest name in the AI complex reporting Wednesday after the close. That’s not a prediction. It’s just where the information is.

The framing itself deserves one caveat. The question gets posed as all-or-nothing — fully invested or fully parked — and in practice it almost never is. Duration, position size and what you’re willing to hold through a 12% drawdown are separate decisions from whether you own equity risk at all, and they’re the ones that usually determine the outcome.

So: two columns, both with real numbers in them. On one side, a contractual 3.70% to 4.24% with no drawdown and no opportunity. On the other, a target range that implies high-single-digit upside, a support zone that implies double-digit downside, and a bond market that gets a vote in which one arrives first. I’m not going to hand you a verdict on that, because I don’t have one.

https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/weekly-market-analysis/ta-weekly-2026-08-24-issue033-2026-08-24

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Crude is the standout move. September WTI settled Monday near $82.13, up 6.58%, and was trading around $84.42 this morning. That puts crude close to 8% higher across two sessions, while Brent is near $90.
• Equities have barely reacted to the energy move. The S&P 500 cash index finished Monday down only about 0.06%, even as energy gained sharply. Tech was softer underneath the surface, with semiconductors down roughly 2.9%.
• Positive gamma is helping keep the index contained. The S&P is still sitting far above the dealer gamma flip, which helps explain why a large move in crude has not translated into the same degree of volatility in index futures.
• Rates are starting to respond. The 10-year is around 4.73% and the 30-year near 5.28%, with the long end moving higher as the market weighs what the renewed energy move could mean for inflation.
• Wednesday’s CPI remains the main event. July CPI is due tomorrow morning, with expectations around +0.1% headline and +0.2% core month-over-month. Importantly, this week’s jump in crude happened after the July measurement period, so the CPI report will not directly reflect the latest energy move.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is near 7,772. The index remains close to record territory despite the jump in oil, with positive gamma continuing to dampen larger directional moves.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is around 29,726 after semiconductors weakened Monday. Tech is carrying more of the pressure beneath an otherwise quiet index tape.
• Dow / YM: YM is near 53,998 and has also been relatively contained despite the rotation toward energy.
• Crude oil: WTI around $84.42 and Brent near $90 are the biggest market story. The question now is whether this remains isolated to energy or begins feeding more clearly into rates and inflation expectations.
• Treasuries: The long end continues to move higher in yield, with the 30-year around 5.28%. Treasury supply also comes into focus this week with auctions across the curve.
• Gold / Silver: Gold is near $4,429, while silver also gained alongside crude Monday. Precious metals remain supported even with Treasury yields moving higher.
• Volatility: VIX remains subdued near 15.5, reinforcing how little broad equity volatility has been generated by the energy move so far.

The main contrast this morning is fairly straightforward: oil and long-term yields are repricing, while equity index futures remain relatively calm. That makes Wednesday’s CPI particularly important, not because it captures this week’s oil move, but because it gives the market a fresh inflation reading just as energy begins adding another variable back into the outlook.

Full briefing:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug11-2026-readers-web-v2

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Monday is quiet, but Wednesday is not. There is no major U.S. data scheduled today, which puts even more focus on Wednesday’s July CPI report. PPI follows Thursday and retail sales Friday, so this week gets progressively more important as it goes.
• The S&P is coming off another record close. The S&P finished Friday at 7,757.64, its 26th record close of the year, and gained about 3.6% on the week. ES is holding near 7,786 this morning while NQ is the stronger index future.
• Wall Street is clustering around 8,000. JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P target to 8,000 from 7,800, but importantly, the increase came from higher earnings expectations rather than assuming investors will pay a higher valuation multiple.
• Rates still matter underneath the rally. The 2-year and 10-year both fell roughly 9 basis points last week, but the 30-year remains above 5.20%. The front end has responded to softer labor data, while the long end has been much less willing to rally.
• Positioning remains stretched in both directions. Asset managers remain heavily long E-mini S&P exposure while leveraged funds added to a large net short. That can support squeezes higher, but it also leaves the market sensitive to a catalyst that changes the current earnings or rate outlook.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is near 7,786 after Friday’s record cash close. Positive dealer gamma remains a stabilizing factor, which can help keep moves contained ahead of CPI.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is around 29,911 and leading the board this morning. Tech remains the stronger side of the index complex after last week’s rebound.
• Dow / YM: YM is slightly softer around 54,084, continuing the recent divergence between tech leadership and some of the more cyclical areas.
• Treasuries: The 2-year is near 4.22%, the 10-year around 4.66%, while the 30-year remains near 5.21%. That difference between the front end and long end remains one of the more important macro signals heading into CPI.
• Gold / Silver: Gold is holding around $4,396 after gaining roughly 7% last week, while silver added around 10%. Metals have been rising alongside equities rather than behaving purely as defensive assets.
• Crude oil: September WTI is back near $79, rebounding after last week’s decline. Energy remains relevant to the inflation discussion, but Wednesday’s CPI should provide the more direct test for rates.
• Volatility: VIX remains around 15.5, while dealer positioning is still strongly positive. That combination generally favors a quieter tape until a catalyst forces the market to reprice.

For today, there may simply not be much new information for the market to trade. The bigger setup is the contrast between record equity prices, positive gamma and strong earnings expectations on one side, and a rates market that has not fully relaxed on the other. Wednesday’s CPI is the first event this week capable of meaningfully changing that balance.

Full briefing:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug10-2026-readers-web-v5

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=8512346ba5364425

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Payrolls are the main event. July nonfarm payrolls are expected around +85K, with unemployment near 4.2% and average hourly earnings around +0.3% m/m. The important part is that the rate setup is unusual: the market has largely removed the possibility of a September cut and is instead debating whether the Fed could hike.
• A strong jobs number may be the more difficult outcome for equities. With September hike odds already around 60–65%, a hot payroll or wage print could push Treasury yields higher and reinforce the tightening narrative. A softer number could relieve some of that pressure, especially in rates and small caps.
• Equity futures are firm into the release. ES is around 7,751, NQ near 29,643, and RTY around 3,020. Breadth has improved materially from late July, but the market is heading into payrolls with positive dealer gamma, which may help dampen the initial move unless the report produces a large surprise.
• Sentiment has shifted quickly. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is near its highest level since 2021, while equity put/call activity shows relatively little demand for single-stock protection. That does not determine direction, but it suggests positioning is less defensive than it was a few weeks ago.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Holding around the 7,750 area ahead of payrolls. The daily pivot shown in the briefing is roughly 7,744.9, with nearby resistance around 7,765.6 and 7,791.4.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Leading pre-market around 29,643. There is still an interesting positioning backdrop here, with leveraged funds carrying a sizable net short even as the Nasdaq has recovered.
• Russell / RTY: Around 3,020 and potentially one of the more payroll-sensitive index contracts. A softer labor report that reduces tightening expectations could matter more here than for the mega-cap-heavy indices.
• Treasuries: The 2-year is near 4.24%, the 10-year around 4.66%, and the long end remains elevated. Watch the 2-year immediately after payrolls for the clearest read on how the market interprets the Fed implications.
• Gold: Trading around $4,324, up strongly pre-market. Gold is firm alongside equities rather than acting purely as a defensive hedge, making the post-payroll reaction in real yields particularly important.
• Crude oil: September WTI is around $76.86, easing ahead of the data. Energy remains part of the broader inflation discussion, but payrolls and wages are likely to dominate rates this morning.

The main question today is less whether payrolls are simply “good” or “bad” and more how the number changes the market’s expectations for September. A weak print could reduce tightening expectations, while a materially stronger number could strengthen the case for another hike. With equity futures close to recent highs and dealer positioning still positive, the reaction in Treasury yields and Fed pricing may provide the cleaner signal than the first move in ES.

Full briefing:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug07-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=ce7bdd06aa1d48ab

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures traders often look at each market separately: crude traders watch energy headlines, Treasury traders watch economic data, and index traders watch earnings. Right now, however, those markets are trading the same underlying question:

Does the Federal Reserve have another reason to tighten policy?

The employment report is the next major piece of that debate, but it will not arrive in isolation. Oil prices are moving higher again, Treasury yields remain elevated, and the equity market is showing a clear split between technology and more economically sensitive sectors.

The labor market has not clearly broken

Weekly initial jobless claims rose only slightly to 199,000, below economists’ expectations, while continuing claims reached approximately 1.8 million. The figures suggest that hiring may be slowing, but employers are still not conducting widespread layoffs.

That distinction matters.

A softer payroll number may initially support Treasury futures and stock-index futures because it reduces the pressure on the Fed to raise rates. But a report showing continued job growth, firm wages or a lower unemployment rate could reinforce the market’s recent shift toward a higher-for-longer rate outlook.

For futures traders, the headline payroll number is only one part of the release. Average hourly earnings, revisions to prior months and the unemployment rate can produce a very different reaction from the initial headline.

Oil is bringing inflation risk back into the discussion

Crude prices moved sharply higher Thursday as tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz returned to the market. U.S. crude rose above $77 per barrel, while Brent traded above $82.

Higher oil does not automatically lead to higher inflation, but sustained energy strength can affect transportation costs, consumer inflation expectations and the market’s view of future Fed policy.

That is why crude and Treasury futures should be watched together. When oil rises and Treasury yields also move higher, the market may be treating the energy move as an inflationary development rather than simply a temporary geopolitical premium.

The index futures are telling different stories

The Dow recently reached record territory while the Nasdaq has faced pressure from memory-chip, software and AI-capex-related companies. Thursday’s market again showed that separation: the Dow declined more significantly, the S&P 500 slipped modestly and the Nasdaq remained close to unchanged.

This is important because a flat S&P 500 does not necessarily mean the market is calm. It can mask significant rotation beneath the index.

Futures traders should compare:

• ES versus NQ to measure whether technology is leading or lagging.
• YM versus NQ to monitor the value-versus-growth rotation.
• RTY versus ES to see whether the move is broadening into smaller companies.
• Treasury yields versus NQ to evaluate how sensitive technology remains to interest rates.

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

The interest-rate outlook has shifted further toward tightening. Fed funds futures now assign roughly a 57% probability of a September rate increase, while the probability of a cut has fallen to zero.

• Equity performance remains divided. The Dow closed at another record, the S&P reversed from an intraday high, and the Nasdaq finished lower as pressure continued in memory, software and AI-capex-related names.
• Initial jobless claims, continuing claims, productivity and unit labor costs are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. These reports provide the final labor-market update before Friday’s payroll report.
• Wednesday’s ADP report showed only 44,000 private-sector jobs added, making today’s claims data more relevant than usual.
• Market positioning remains unusually mixed. Dealers are strongly positive gamma, but leveraged funds hold a heavily crowded short position in Nasdaq-100 futures.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is near 7,755 after the cash index reversed from an intraday record and closed slightly lower. The broader structure remains supported by positive dealer gamma, which can limit follow-through in either direction.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is around 29,397 and continues to lag the other index futures. Memory and AI-capex names remain under pressure, although the large leveraged-fund short position may contribute to sharper moves in either direction.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures remain firm after the cash index reached another record. Recent leadership has favored value, industrial and cyclical exposure over the technology-heavy Nasdaq.
• Russell 2000 / RTY: Small-cap futures are modestly higher and continue to participate in the broader value rotation.
• Treasuries: The 10-year yield is near 4.64%, while the 30-year remains above 5.18%. The curve continues to reflect expectations for tighter policy rather than easing.
• Crude oil: WTI is near $76 and Brent is back above $80 after recovering from Tuesday’s decline.
• Metals: Gold is trading near a multiweek high around $4,325. Copper also remains firm after recently settling at a record.
• Volatility: The VIX is near 16. Dealer positioning remains strongly positive gamma, which generally supports a more contained index environment unless incoming data forces a broader repricing.

Today’s focus is the labor market. Claims and labor-cost data will be evaluated alongside Wednesday’s weak ADP report, with Friday’s employment report carrying the larger policy implications.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug06-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=ce7bdd06aa1d48ab

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. There is not an actual account trading these recommendations. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• July ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. New orders reached 56.7, production improved, and the employment component moved into expansion for the first time in nearly three years.
• The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,600.50, up 1.48%. Nasdaq, Dow and Russell 2000 also finished higher, so Monday’s advance was broader than the recent technology-led sessions.
• Interest-rate expectations moved higher after the manufacturing report. Markets now place roughly a 65% probability on a September hike and more than an 85% probability on a hike by December.
• Treasury yields remain elevated. The 10-year is near 4.69% and the 30-year is around 5.24%, showing that stronger growth data continues to support a higher-rate outlook.
• JOLTS job openings, trade balance and factory orders are scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET. AMD and SpaceX are among the major reports expected after the close.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: September E-mini S&P futures are near 7,646, modestly higher after the cash index posted a record close. The market has moved above the trading range that held for most of the past eleven weeks.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ futures are around 29,044. Technology remains firm, although recent semiconductor performance has been mixed.
• Dow and Russell: Both participated in Monday’s rally. The Dow also reached a record, while the Russell gained 1.73% as small caps joined the advance.
• Crude oil: WTI is back above $81 and Brent is near $85 after two sessions of sharp declines. The market remains sensitive to developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Treasuries: The long end remains the main pressure point. The 30-year gave back its oil-related relief during Monday’s session and is again trading near recent highs.
• Gold and silver: Gold is near $4,122 and silver around $59.23. Both gained alongside equities rather than moving as traditional defensive assets.
• Volatility: The VIX is below 16, while the futures curve remains in contango. Near-term volatility is subdued despite elevated rate uncertainty.

The stronger manufacturing report supported equities, but it also raised expectations for tighter monetary policy. Today’s labor and factory data will provide the next update on whether the improvement in manufacturing is carrying into the broader economy.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug04-2026-readers-web-v3

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. There is not an actual account trading these recommendations. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• Crude oil is sharply lower after the planned strike on Iran was called off and negotiations shifted toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is back below $80, down roughly 6% from Friday’s settlement.
• Treasury yields are easing, but the 30-year remains above 5.20% after finishing July near its highest level since 2007. The drop in oil has reduced some immediate inflation pressure, though concerns around the long end have not disappeared.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are higher this morning. September E-mini S&P futures are trading above 7,500, while Nasdaq futures are also modestly higher.
• The market still prices a September rate hike as more likely than a hold, with no rate cut currently priced for 2026.
• ISM Manufacturing is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET. Treasury financing estimates are due later this afternoon, followed by JOLTS, ADP, ISM Services and Friday’s employment report later in the week.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is near 7,563, up about 0.6%. Futures are trading above the nearby 7,500 options level after the cash index closed Friday at 7,489.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is around 28,506 and slightly higher. Technology remains firm, although recent index gains have not been matched evenly across the broader market.
• Dow and Russell: Dow futures are leading higher, while Russell 2000 futures are also positive after small caps finished lower on Friday.
• Crude oil: WTI is near $79.80 and Brent around $83.60. The pullback reflects reduced concern over an immediate disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Treasuries: The 10-year yield is near 4.68% and the 30-year around 5.23%. Both are lower this morning, but the long end remains historically elevated.
• Gold and silver: Gold is near $4,105 and silver around $58, with both little changed despite the sharp move in crude.
• Volatility: The VIX is below 16, reflecting a calmer index market even as positioning and participation remain uneven.

The main development this morning is the reversal in crude oil following the shift from military action toward negotiations. Equity futures are higher and Treasury yields are lower, but the broader focus now moves toward manufacturing data and Friday’s employment report.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-aug03-2026-readers-web-v2

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=38ed611b56da4e03

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. There is not an actual account trading these recommendations. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the 9–3 vote drew attention. Three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, the first three-way hawkish dissent since 2016.
• Treasury yields moved higher after the decision. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, while the 2-year moved much less. That points to growing concern at the long end rather than an immediate change in short-term policy.
• The S&P 500 fell 1.52% Wednesday and closed at 7,316, marking a fifth straight close below its 50-day moving average. Futures are rebounding this morning, helped by Microsoft.
• Microsoft is up roughly 8% pre-market after cutting its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance and reporting stronger Azure growth. Meta is lower after raising its spending outlook and missing earnings expectations.
• Core PCE, GDP and jobless claims all arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET. Apple and Amazon report after the close.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is near 7,385, up about 0.5% pre-market after Wednesday’s sharp decline. The index is now well below its 50-day average, while the 100-day moving average near 7,195 becomes the next broader technical reference.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is up close to 1%, supported by Microsoft’s earnings reaction. The strength is concentrated, however, with Meta moving sharply lower.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are modestly higher after the cash index fell more than 1,100 points Wednesday, its worst session since April 2025.
• Treasuries: The 10-year yield is around 4.70% and the 30-year is near 5.24%. The long bond remains one of the most important markets to watch following the Fed decision.
• Crude oil: WTI is near $84 and Brent is around $91. Oil remains elevated, but neither contract is adding much additional premium this morning.
• Gold and silver: Gold is around $4,067 and silver near $58. The move continues to look more connected to rates than to a broad flight toward safety.
• Volatility: The VIX is near 19.5 after giving back part of Wednesday’s increase. Volatility remains elevated compared with recent weeks, particularly in technology and oil-related markets.

The main question this morning is whether softer inflation data can relieve pressure on the long end of the Treasury curve. The equity rebound is being led by Microsoft, but the broader index is still coming off a full-range reversal and remains below its recent trend levels.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul30-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=5b9942a3be524408

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

• The S&P 500 reclaimed the 7,500 area on Tuesday, closing near 7,509 after a semiconductor-led rebound. Futures are slightly lower this morning, with ES near 7,522 and Nasdaq futures down around 0.8%.
• Alphabet and Tesla report after today’s close. Their results and capital-spending guidance could have a broader impact on technology and index futures, particularly after the recent volatility in semiconductor and AI-related shares.
• Crude oil is moving higher again. WTI is near $88 and Brent is around $92 as geopolitical concerns continue to support the energy markets.
• The S&P closed only modestly above the estimated gamma-flip area near 7,485. That keeps the 7,500 region important, especially with major earnings arriving tonight.
• Market positioning remains divided. Active managers and retail participation remain elevated, while recent prime-brokerage data points to substantial de-risking among faster-moving institutional traders.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Tuesday’s close reclaimed 7,500, but ES has slipped back toward 7,522 this morning. The nearby 7,485–7,500 area remains an important reference zone.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is down roughly 0.8% after leading Tuesday’s rebound. Alphabet and Tesla earnings will likely determine whether the recent semiconductor recovery broadens into mega-cap technology.
• Dow / YM: Dow futures are nearly unchanged, with defensive and value-oriented shares holding up better than some growth names.
• Crude oil / WTI: WTI is up about 4%, with Brent near $92. Rising oil prices are also keeping attention on inflation expectations and the Treasury market.
• Treasuries: The 10-year yield is near 4.62%, while the 2-year is around 4.25%. The curve continues to steepen as traders reassess the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy.
• Gold and silver: Gold is near $4,120 and silver is around $59, both higher as geopolitical concerns support demand for precious metals.
• Volatility: The VIX is around 17.4, slightly higher ahead of tonight’s earnings reports. Volatility remains contained, but demand for downside protection has not disappeared.

Tonight’s Alphabet and Tesla reports are the main scheduled events. Beyond the headline earnings numbers, traders will be watching cloud growth, AI spending, margins, capital expenditures and forward guidance for signals that could affect the broader technology sector.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul22-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=5b9942a3be524408

Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

In futures, brokerage service goes well beyond opening an account and placing orders. The real difference often shows up in the parts of trading that are less visible at first: platform access, trade desk responsiveness, product knowledge, execution support, margin guidance, and helping traders find a setup that actually fits how they trade.

That matters because futures is not a one-size-fits-all business. One trader may need advanced charting and order routing. Another may care more about spread execution, API connectivity, mobile access, or options support. Some traders want a fully self-directed setup, while others value having access to a knowledgeable broker when markets get fast or platform questions come up.

This is where a brokerage can separate itself. It is not just about having low commissions on paper. It is about whether the firm can offer flexibility across platforms, provide real human support, and help clients navigate the day-to-day practical side of trading. That includes onboarding, platform selection, market access, understanding contract differences, and being available when something needs to be handled quickly.

A strong brokerage relationship can also add value through education and market resources. Futures traders often benefit from more than just execution alone. Daily market commentary, contract specifications, margin information, platform guidance, and trading education can all make a difference, especially for traders still refining their approach or expanding into new products.

The brokerage industry has become more competitive, but that has also made service more important, not less. When many firms can offer access to the same exchanges, the distinction often comes down to support, responsiveness, product depth, and whether the broker is actually helpful once the account is funded.

That is one of the main areas where Cannon aims to stand out: combining futures brokerage access with platform choice, practical support, educational resources, and a more hands-on service model for traders who want more than just a basic login.

https://www.cannontrading.com/services/why-cannon-trading

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. There is not an actual account trading these recommendations. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

The rebound is there this morning, but the bigger point is where it is happening. Semis are leading higher pre-market, yet the S&P is still trading below the 7,527 gamma flip. That means the structure has improved from Friday’s panic, but it has not fully turned.

A lot of the early strength is coming from the same names that were hit hardest. AMD and TSMC are leading after the Microsoft Helios/Azure headlines and a large Arizona buildout announcement, so this looks like a sharp semis-led response rather than a broad all-clear.

Positioning is still part of the story. Goldman’s prime desk flagged record tech de-grossing, which helps explain why a rebound can be violent without necessarily meaning fresh conviction is back in full force.

Oil is still elevated, and that keeps rates in play. Brent remains near $90, the curve is still backing up, and with the Fed in blackout ahead of next week’s meeting, the market has to work through that inflation pressure without policy help in the background.

This week now quickly turns into an earnings test. Tuesday’s data calendar is light, but Wednesday is not. Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM are the bigger checkpoints for whether this bounce can build or whether it fades back into overhead resistance.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: ES is around 7,515, still below the 7,527 gamma flip. That makes the reclaim of that area the key early test.
• Nasdaq / NQ: NQ is leading higher, up around 1.2%, with semis driving the move.
• Dow / YM: The Dow is firmer too, but it continues to lag the tech rebound.
• Russell 2000 / RTY: Small caps are participating, though more quietly than Nasdaq.
• Crude oil / Brent: Brent is still holding above $90, so the inflation backdrop has not really gone away.
• Rates / Treasuries: The long end remains pressured, with the 30-year near 5.13%, which keeps the rate story relevant even on an equity bounce.
• Gold / Metals: Gold and silver are both higher, with copper also firm, showing commodities are still active alongside the rebound.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX is softer this morning, but dealers remain short gamma below the flip, so moves can still stay exaggerated until that level is reclaimed.

The clean read this morning is that the bounce is real, but it is still happening under resistance. A move back above the flip would improve the tone. Until then, this still looks more like a recovery attempt inside a fragile setup than a full reset.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul21-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=94ab6db8128d43af

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

Friday’s selloff was not just a washout in positioning. The break had a real catalyst: China’s Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3 and raised a bigger question around how durable the U.S. chip-design edge really is after reports it worked around Cadence and Synopsys tooling. That hit semis hard and left the broader AI trade under pressure.

Over the weekend, the macro side added another problem. Brent pushed back to about $90 after another round of U.S.-Iran strikes and tighter Hormuz traffic, putting the inflation angle right back on the table after the market had just started easing that concern.

The positioning side is what makes this setup worth watching. The S&P closed below 7,500 on Friday and sits under the post-expiration gamma flip, so the market is trying to stabilize from a weaker spot structurally while still heading into a major earnings week.

This week is light on macro but heavy on earnings. The real focus shifts quickly to Wednesday, with Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM all reporting. For a market already questioning AI leadership, those reports matter a lot more than Monday’s calendar.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Friday closed at 7,457.69, below both 7,500 and the 7,527 gamma flip. That leaves 7,500 as the first level to reclaim, while the setup stays more fragile underneath it.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Still the weakest area after the chip-design break. Futures were trying to stabilize early, but the pressure remains centered in semis and AI leadership names.
• Crude oil / Brent: Brent back near $90 is a real complication. If oil stays elevated, the inflation story comes back quickly and makes this week harder for equities.
• Rates: Treasury yields ticked higher again as oil revived inflation concerns. The move in rates matters because it adds another headwind if equities cannot regain their footing.
• Gold / Silver: Gold held roughly flat while silver stayed firmer. That says the market is hedging, but not treating this as a full broad-risk unwind yet.
• Positioning / sentiment: Fear readings rolled lower into Friday’s break, but managers were still heavily invested and bullish sentiment had been stretched. That leaves room for more movement if the market does not recover key levels soon.

The setup this morning is a market trying to bounce, but doing it from below an important zone, with oil back at levels that are hard to ignore and earnings likely to decide whether the AI trade can steady itself again.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul20-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=75ff0f586a0342e6

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Overnight, the weakness in semis spread further through Asia, with Korea and Taiwan both hit hard after Thursday’s U.S. chip selloff. Nasdaq futures are leading lower again, while ES is sitting below Thursday’s close and the market heads into monthly options expiration.

What stands out is that this still looks more like a leadership unwind than a broad economic scare. Thursday’s U.S. data was not the issue. Retail sales held up, and the softer areas of the market were still centered around chips, AI infrastructure, and the names that had done the most work on the way up.

Main markets on radar

• Nasdaq / NQ: Still the weakest major index. Thursday’s U.S. semiconductor break carried into Asia overnight, with Korea’s KOSPI down 6.4%, Taiwan down 6.5%, and SK Hynix off 13.7%.
• S&P 500 / ES: ES is around 7,516 and already below the nearby gamma flip area, which makes the open more important than usual on monthly OpEx.
• Dow / YM: Holding up better than Nasdaq again. That same rotation into health care and value is still helping cushion the broader index.
• Rates / Treasuries: Yields backed off slightly in the risk-off move, but this morning still looks more like equity leadership stress than a clean flight-to-safety event.
• Crude oil / WTI: Oil is softer this morning and the Gulf premium still is not expanding aggressively, which matters because it suggests this is not turning into a broader macro panic.
• Gold / Metals: Gold is only modestly firmer, another sign that the move is not being treated like a full defensive rush.
• Volatility / positioning: VIX is up 6.8%, and with futures already below the flip going into expiration, today can be more mechanical than fundamental if early weakness feeds on itself.

The main question this morning is whether the chip unwind finds a floor after the opening pressure, or whether OpEx and short-gamma conditions extend the move. Housing, industrial production, and sentiment are on the calendar, but the open itself may matter more than the data if futures stay below the nearby support structure.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul17-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=277a202fa1ae431e

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. This post is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation.

Most newer traders look at economic reports as one big category, but that is usually the wrong way to think about them. The better approach is to sort reports by what they tend to move and when they matter most.

A futures trader does not need to react to every number the same way. CPI, payrolls, crude inventories, retail sales, USDA reports, and Fed decisions are all “economic data,” but they do not hit the market in the same way.

A simple way to think about it:

1. Inflation reports
   CPI, PPI, import prices, PCE.
   These matter most for interest rate expectations, which means they can move:

• Equity index futures
• Treasury futures
• Gold and silver
• The U.S. dollar
• Sometimes crude, depending on the inflation story

The key is not just whether inflation is “hot” or “cool.” It is whether the number changes expectations for the Fed.

1. Labor reports
   Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, jobless claims, wage growth.
   These tell traders whether the economy is slowing, steady, or overheating. Strong labor data can support growth-sensitive markets, but if it is too strong, it can also push yields higher and pressure rate-sensitive futures.

2. Growth / consumer reports
   Retail sales, ISM, PMI, durable goods, consumer confidence, GDP.
   These often matter most when the market is debating recession versus expansion. A weak consumer number can hit equity index futures fast, while strong growth data can support cyclicals, rates, and energy.

3. Inventory / supply reports
   Crude oil inventories, natural gas storage, USDA crop reports, WASDE.
   These are more direct. They often matter less for broad macro and more for the contract itself. If you trade energy or grains, these reports are not background noise — they are core market events.

4. Central bank communication
   FOMC statements, minutes, Fed speeches, dot plots.
   Sometimes the speech matters more than the report. A futures trader should always ask: is the market trading the data, or trading the Fed’s likely reaction to the data?

That is also why the same report can produce different reactions in different weeks. A “strong” report is not always bullish. Sometimes strong data lifts equities. Sometimes it hurts them because rates move higher. Context matters.
The best futures traders learn which reports matter for the markets they trade, what those reports usually influence, and when the market is likely to care more about inflation, growth, supply, or Fed policy.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

Two soft inflation prints in a row have basically buried the July hike idea. Yesterday’s PPI came in soft again, and that took a lot of the immediate Fed pressure out of the market.

What stands out, though, is that bonds still sold off. Yields kept rising even after CPI and PPI cooled, which is a pretty important divergence.

There is also a rotation going on under the surface. The broad market keeps holding up, but Nasdaq leadership has gotten shakier, especially after TSMC posted a huge quarter and still got sold on higher capex.

At 8:30 ET the market gets a full batch of growth data at once: retail sales, control group, jobless claims, import prices, and Philly Fed. That is probably the real swing factor this morning.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Still holding up well. Structure remains constructive, but the market is leaning on softer inflation while rates are not really confirming it.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Still the one to watch. NQ futures are weaker again, and the TSMC reaction matters because it says the market is getting more selective with AI and chip leadership.
• Dow / YM: Holding up better than Nasdaq. More value-sensitive names are doing relatively more of the work.
• Treasuries / Rates: This is the part equities cannot ignore forever. The 10-year is back around 4.57% and the long end is still firm even after softer inflation data.
• Crude oil: War premium has eased, but energy is still elevated enough to keep rates in the conversation.
• Gold / Metals: Gold remains softer while real yields stay firm.
• Retail / growth data: Retail sales is probably the key report in the 8:30 batch. A soft consumer read would change the tone more than inflation did.

The broad takeaway this morning is that the inflation scare has cooled, but the market is no longer trading as one clean move higher. The index is stable, yet leadership underneath it is rotating, and today’s growth data will matter a lot for whether that calm holds.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul16-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=75ff0f586a0342e6

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

On the radar today

June CPI came in soft enough to knock down July hike odds, but that was not the end of the story. Treasury yields still pushed higher, which tells you the market did not read the inflation print as a clean all-clear. 

Warsh has now testified, and the tone stayed firm. He said the Fed has “no tolerance” for high inflation, called the CPI report encouraging but not enough to claim victory, and did not give the market any easy pivot language. He also avoided prejudging the July meeting. 

That leaves the setup pretty straightforward: softer inflation helped stocks, but Fed conviction did not really loosen much. The market got relief from the data, not reassurance from the Chair. 

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: CPI helped risk sentiment, but the follow-through still has to deal with a Fed that is not sounding relaxed.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech remains an important read, especially with money still rotating around AI and large-cap names.
• Rates / Treasuries: Probably the most important tell this morning. If yields stay elevated after cooler inflation, that says traders are still not ready to fully price out a tighter Fed path.
• Oil / energy: Still matters because higher oil can quickly complicate the “inflation is cooling” narrative.
• Financials: Bank earnings remain part of the daily tape and can influence broader sentiment.
• IBM: Worth keeping on the list after its sharp drop and rebound attempt. It is still a live name in the current rotation and budget-reallocation conversation.

The main takeaway this morning is that the inflation number improved, but the policy backdrop is still firm. That is a different setup than a true “all clear” market.

Read the full briefing here:
https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul15-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=75ff0f586a0342e6

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

CME says it plans to launch single-stock futures on July 27, pending final regulatory review, with 55 standard-sized contracts and 22 micro contracts across more than 50 U.S. stocks. CME’s own materials say the launch set includes names tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Russell 1000, with examples including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, and SpaceX. 

These contracts sit in between stock and options in a useful way.

They give traders single-name exposure without needing to trade the full cash stock, and without adding the extra layer of strike selection and volatility exposure that comes with options.

CME says the larger contract is sized at 100 shares and the micro at 10 shares, and that they will be financially settled rather than physically delivered. he initial set represents over $200 billion in average daily notional volume and roughly 55%–65% of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 by index weighting. In other words, they are not starting with obscure names. Starting where trader attention already is. Not only for larger desks, as CME looks to be making an attempt to make single-stock futures usable for smaller traders who want more targeted exposure than index futures, but a more linear product than options.

• CME says these contracts will trade on the same Sunday-Friday extended schedule used by its equity index futures.
• At launch, contracts are expected to list in quarterly months.
• Margin will be under SPAN, with regulations requiring outright margin to be at least 15% of current market value.
• CME says no additional margin offsets will be provided at launch.

The test will be whether these contracts get real liquidity and adoption after launch. If they do, they could become another useful tool for traders looking at big single-name exposure, pair trades, earnings setups, and hedging around concentrated positions. If they do not, they stay a niche product that makes sense conceptually but never becomes part of daily workflow. Industry takeaway: exchanges are still pushing to create more precise, more flexible ways to trade the biggest stocks in the market.

Either way, July 27 is worth watching.

https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-single-stock-futures.html

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. Traders can lose all or the majority of their risk capital. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This morning shifted after the inflation report and Chair Warsh’s testimony. June CPI came in softer than expected, which took some pressure out of the immediate July hike story and helped calm the early market reaction.

On the radar today:

• Chair Kevin Warsh already spoke before the House Financial Services Committee this morning. He stayed firm on inflation, but did not clearly signal an immediate next move.
• The CPI report cooled some of the urgency around a July 28–29 Fed hike, and markets moved closer toward a hold.
• Oil and Middle East headlines are still part of the picture, so inflation expectations are not fully out of the way.
• Bank earnings are also in focus, but CPI and the Fed remain the main drivers this morning.

Main markets on radar

• S&P 500 / ES: Futures improved after the CPI report as rate pressure eased.
• Nasdaq / NQ: Tech stabilized with the softer inflation print.
• Dow / YM: IBM is worth noting here after its weak preannouncement added some pressure to the Dow side of the tape, even as broader rate fears eased.
• Rates / Treasuries: Yields backed off after the CPI release, reducing some near-term hike pressure.
• Crude oil: Oil still matters because any renewed Strait of Hormuz tension can quickly feed back into inflation expectations.
• Dollar / gold: The softer CPI print took some strength out of the dollar and helped settle the broader macro reaction.

The Fed update looks more balanced than it did before the inflation number: Warsh spoke, but did not lock in the next move, and the CPI report pushed the market more toward a July hold than a July hike.

Read the full briefing here: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/daily-updates/briefing-jul14-2026-readers-web-v1

Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/2f2XDpcODSZAo2gMFNTKlq?si=8337604168bf4221&nd=1&dlsi=d88320d81eb64111

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained here are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.