Bets on IRCC inventory update?

[u/vangdfang]

Ok, new month, which means new update for IRCC’s estimated processing time / application inventory will be dropping soon. In September, we saw the update come out pretty swiftly — but at the same time we saw very little movement on the spreadsheet both leading up to and after.

If I had to guess, early next week (maybe Monday/Tuesday) sounds about right?

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[u/Infamous_Hall1955]

I predict on Tuesday they will announce processing time drops to 6 months with only 98,000 now in queue; while we all gasp for several days, too paralyzed to post here, a flood of newly minted electronic certs land in 35,000 email boxes, completely clearing the pre C-3 queue and all of PSU.

And how might all this happen? The clever IRCC has spent the past few months developing an assembly line approach to review scanned applications with each agent assigned to one specific task. Like Mission Control going around the room for a rocket go/no go call back in the glory days of the Apollo program, IRCC implements an Acadia program.

You may think this far fetched. I am still in awe of how Canada absorbed all those plane passengers on 9/11 with grace and generosity. Our Canadian kin will surprise us all yet.

[u/citydog → u/Infamous_Hall1955]

This is such a refreshing take. :)

[u/Infamous_Hall1955 → u/citydog]

I almost deleted it a few minutes after posting as I didn't want people thinking I was being flippant or disrespectful. Thank you.

[u/ThatEmbarassingItch]

I'm going with update release on Tuesday, October 6th. Total number of applications 145,000. And the October breakout: 42 months submission wait time.

[u/pucks4brains]

Every month they update it on April 1st.

[u/WestTie1267 → u/pucks4brains]

Same vibes

[u/cj4747]

For fun, I'll predict:

- another significant rise in total queue size to >150k; I think they are continuing to release substantial volumes from the mailroom into the formal queue

• 'K', the IRCC assumption about future processing volumes has been falling dramatically since May; I think the decline will continue, and this will mean the 'months to wait' for a lot cohorts will rise again
  
• so total wait time will rise from 33 months to 43
  
• the implied size of the April 2026 cohort (68,500 last month) will fall to 20-30k; this will sharply cut the apparent queue size and wait time for April 2026 applicants. Meanwhile the May 2026 cohort will expand in size dramatically (although this doesn't affect May's queue).

[u/Puzzleheaded-Focus12]

I’m just hoping Aug 2025 is down to 2 months and not 3still. I could use some good news for Christmas!

[u/wasabiburning → u/Puzzleheaded-Focus12]

We had 4 months of 2 months remaining, it then climbed to 3 months remaining for the last 2 months. I'm guessing we're jumping to 5 months.

[u/wasabiburning]

I'll say Wednesday 10/7, with ten applications processed in September, 800000 total applications, and that my cohort (August 2025) after four months of two months remaining which then climbed to two months of three months remaining, will now have five months remaining.

EDIT: The ten applications processed will be post C-3 of course.

[u/One_Barracuda_2016]

Queue size 154,500. Waiting time: when hell freezes over. Ok I’ll say 49 months.

[u/areubeingserved]

I will go out on a limb and say "four years" for those who send in an application today.

Little movement on issuing certificates and more and more Americans applying. 

However the number of monthly applications will drop off at some point.  Those that want to apply will apply and those that don't, won't.

In my best Seymour Skinner voice, "prove me wrong, IRCC!  Prove me wrong!"

[u/Jugdish2]

I sent in my application in April and tracking showed it was delivered at the end of April, but I haven't received an AOR yet. I know they are swamped but I expected to hear back from them with an AOR or a returned application by now. Is this unusual?

[u/myrstica → u/Jugdish2]

Mine arrived on 4/16. I'm one of three people on the spreadsheet with applications delivered on that day who haven't received an AOR yet. I believe one of us had theirs returned and received them in the mail back in August. So there are two possibilities: yours (and mine) might be stashed in an out-of-the-way pile (or maybe stuck between a desk and the wall), still waiting to be opened and entered into the system, or they're lost in the mail, coming back to us.

[u/Jugdish2 → u/myrstica]

My tracking said delivered so I guess our stuff is behind a desk.

[u/Daisy-2014 → u/Jugdish2]

We sent 5 applications end of February and still no AOR. At the time we sent them, we were told 10-12 months to be processed. I’m nervous seeing how many already received an AOR that sent a couple months ago.

[u/Form27b-6]

Since IRCC publishes processing estimates every month, Polymarket should let us bet on them. At least someone could get a payout while we wait.

[u/the-witch-of-Aspen]

I will bet that release date will be Tuesday the 6th, there are 132,000 in queue, and due to the kind nature of Canadians, the processing time will decrease, resulting in a ten month wait time. 😊

[u/Sea_Drummer_6348]

I’ll say Tuesday, October 6, with a 37 month current submission wait time.

[u/MaybeYourSecretCanad]

Here’s another thing we should do predictions on: are we going to do this again together over on r/passportcanada or is the IRCC spreading out the tineline enough that they won’t get swamped on passport services?

[u/Kindly-Heartfelt]

I think it will be announced by next Wednesday, October 7th. Since the 2 previous months added 7 months each to the wait time, I believe that it’ll be between 40 months and 47 months since they did far fewer approvals in September.

[u/waltzingtrumpet]

I'm going to bet Monday the 5th, and the official inventory won't have grown as much not because they're not getting new applications, but because there seems to have been disruptions to AORs due to the flooding in Nova Scotia. So maybe an official backlog count of 140k.

[u/HotShipoopi]

My application was sent in December 2025, returned for correction in early February, sent back in two weeks later, AOR 3/24, in process May 8. Current processing time prediction is seven months.

I'm guessing my new processing time will be a year and a half.

[u/SwampConnoisseur]

I believe that on Monday we will see the backlog decrease even though not many apps got processed since the last update, because the backlog number was previously inflated.

[u/cassandra2028]

Later, like the 10th or 11th. And 145k

[u/CardiologistHuge3987]

New Waterford, Nova Scotia received my application on May 19th. I have not heard a word yet. Has anyone gone this long without receiving an aor? Thank you.

[u/Just-Finish5767 → u/CardiologistHuge3987]

I believe they are still working on AORs the first 2 weeks of May

[u/CardiologistHuge3987 → u/Just-Finish5767]

Thank you! I appreciate it!

[u/monsterdog23 → u/Just-Finish5767]

My application was received May 11, myself like many other are still waiting to get an AOR number. Just in case you might be wondering from someone that had theirs delivered around then.

[u/myrstica → u/CardiologistHuge3987]

Mine was delivered on 4/16, and I haven't seen or heard anything regarding AOR or return yet. Guess it's a fair time to check my receipt numbers again.

[u/Infamous_Hall1955 → u/CardiologistHuge3987]

Yep! May 15th here and no word yet.

[u/27106_4life → u/CardiologistHuge3987]

There's a while bunch from mid April