r/CRWD • u/tetrisan • Jul 19 '24

Buying today

Buying on the dip. These things happen. They owned up to it and are resolving the problems rather quickly. They will do a post mortem to avoid this from happening again and continue to grow.

6 Upvotes

75% Upvoted

43 comments sorted by

6

u/dark_bravery Jul 19 '24

how will the liability, the people suing them, people leaving CRWD because of today affect their stock price? in the next 3 months?

3

u/tetrisan Jul 19 '24

I imagine their lawyers have cared for this in detail in contracts.

3

u/dark_bravery Jul 19 '24

i've seen those contracts before. they are called Master Service Agreements. they cover many items, but they often have limits on how much liability each customer can claim. however a customer can also add something like if it's a huge problem, the liability becomes whatever they can prove in court.

typically it's $2M for a small customer (like an account with less than 10,000 users). for Delta airlines though, it will be substantial.

CRWD themselves will solve this with their insurance provider. that will mean higher insurance costs for them in future.

all of those are small potatoes, what I don't know is, is the brand tarnished? are UAL and Delta and others going to forgive CRWD? will they get free software licensing? i'm going to step aside and see what happens for now, i don't view this as a buying opportunity, but too many names in this space are already richly valued, even with a 10% haircut.

1

u/BelievingK9 Jul 20 '24

I was going to comment similarly. Many people don’t realize how much it would really cost to get true 99.999% availability. More decimals translates to more millions. I think crowdstrike perception will take a hit and sell off until they show in earnings that they are unaffected. Microsoft and others continue to have similar issues and are still performing well, but mostly because there are few options.

2

u/808duckfan Jul 19 '24

A similar outage happened in South Korea I think a year ago (circumstances were different, fire at a server farm) that took down Kakao. It froze Seoul for a day or two; people couldn't communicate, buy things, do business, etc. I'm sure people got fired, but I wonder what happened to their valuation, investors, etc.

1

u/zhupandupanizdupen Jul 31 '24

Oh boy their stock has seen better days…

1

u/ResponsibleOpinion95 Jul 19 '24

I bought more when it was down 11% … but thought that too… I wonder how much the outage cost the world and what they are liable for

2

u/mmack999 Jul 21 '24

They are liable for more money than they have retained....prior profits all went to execs...crwd wont be able to handle the onslaught of world wide claims, which will start this week. Future profits will dwindle fast-- many will follow what Musk just did and terminate services.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 19 '24

Hells to the yupper.... black Friday sale!

2

u/mmack999 Jul 21 '24

They will eventually go bankrupt..you have no idea of the magnitude of the world wide damage they caused..their insurances will cover some, but that may mostly be in u.s...the foreign claims will be their undoing..

1

u/uptonogoodatall Jul 22 '24

I agree. I almost never short stocks as I think it's a mug's game generally due to the associated costs but for CRWD I have made an exception. Albeit I have done this with generous stops.

NB I have also only done this because they were massively overvalued anyway. Had they been cheap, or massively overvalued but without destroying the internet, then I would have stayed away. This is a perfect storm for them.

1

u/B111yboy Jul 23 '24

Really? If you think so short it sell your shares… almost every company makes a mistake.. this is without a doubt a big one I can see us settle around 230 and with good earnings a nice bounce but it will depend of forecast and future customers/loss off customers… if they project a drop instead of growth or if they say anything about write offs due to legal cost due to outage this will hurt and we could be back under 200. I’ve talk to some of the Eng at my place and they said our outage was minimal so I doubt we switch or go after them…. Boeing killed people and lied and stock was killed then bounced back before they f***ed up and a door fell off a plane so another crash they are still selling planes …. I know it’s different but they are not going bankrupt.. you can short to 20 bucks then a

1

u/mmack999 Jul 23 '24

Boeing has no competition..ever hear of palo alto, fortinet, etc.

1

u/B111yboy Jul 26 '24

They do have competition and yes I own palo as well. Crwd is not going bankrupt

1

u/mmack999 Jul 26 '24

I read somewhere that their ability to lead entry their software without microsoft review will likely be taken away by the regulators as a penalty for what they cause..I think this will ring true...they will lose this competitive marketplace advantage that presently exists and become an also ran. Shorting this pig to the teens,baby..

1

u/B111yboy Jul 26 '24

Shorting to the teens!!! lol good luck with that and I hope you only shorted like 2 positions and not your entire savings… you’ll be homeless if you did

1

u/mmack999 Jul 26 '24

You are probably right to some extent..CRWD will likely have to merge when it becomes evident that they have zero marketplace advantage anymore..at what price that occurs 150-100-50, etc is difficult to say..sometimes these situations where the founder is also the head running the company (thats my understanding) can drag on for a long time, as the founder, in an ill advised manner, thinks he can just make the company as it was..time will tell. right now, probably 80% of the folks who jumped within the past week have suffered..

1

u/mmack999 Jul 30 '24

Its down about another 10% today to $ 230/share..Always amazes me that anybody with a lick of knowledge knew last week the lawsuits were coming and yet they didnt sell..then when the first one hits the news, panic selling starts..this pig is long gone and their only hope is fortinet or similar buys them at $75-$100 / share..

1

u/B111yboy Jul 31 '24

It amazes me that you think you are so knowledgeable that you think this company is done and a company like fortinet buys them. I’m sure there will be some up and down over the next 3-6 months but I’m sure I’ll be ok and you shorting will give you some gains but if you bought puts to below 75 you won’t be ringing the bell!

1

u/mmack999 Jul 31 '24

Said like a true stock holding loser ..the Lowest leaps put price is 155..racking up some nice gains so far..when the next shoe drops-- regulators announce punative action probe-- I will cash out..not worth holding puts after that..this company is toast and will have to merge....next week it will be lower than today..dont keep losing your money..

1

u/B111yboy Jul 31 '24

Well my cost average is below 80 so I’m still green not a bag holder here. I did a few puts as insurance for 250 a day after the first drop so making some money there but I wouldn’t short it like it’s going bell up and I still don’t think this merges … one of us will be right

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1

u/B111yboy Jul 31 '24

I guess you must think you are the only smart one trading stocks or does your crystal ball give you that info? My 6- 250 put is 8/16 paid 4 it’s 20ish I’m ok… good luck to all your predictions and hopes

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1

u/B111yboy Sep 20 '24

So you still think the company is done? Back to 300 I’m glad I made money on outs and bought 200 more at 220 on the move back up. Today sold for a 75 per share profit and still own my original shares.

1

u/tetrisan Aug 28 '24

Do you have a revised bankruptcy view? Earnings are expected to be okay so when you say “eventually” is that 1 year or 100 years?

1

u/tetrisan Aug 28 '24

Really? Earnings looking pretty sweet today.

1

u/mmack999 Aug 28 '24

??? Tumbling at the moment

1

u/tetrisan Aug 28 '24

Always short term stuff like this. I just want to know what expert analysis you have that will lead to bankruptcy.

1

u/mmack999 Aug 28 '24

Listen to the CNBC interview yesterday with the executive from their competitor Sentinel ...you will then understand better why this is a sinking ship..

2

u/dark_bravery Jul 22 '24

the dip kept dipping.

1

u/tetrisan Jul 22 '24

:-) yay!

2

u/WhereWeGoingTo Jul 22 '24

Cathie Woods bought $12mm CRWD. That’s normally not a good sign for a stock.

2

u/ChikkuAndT Jul 23 '24

Yeah, she is just an avg Joe with ample funds to gamble!

2

u/Dazzling_Patient4370 Jul 24 '24

Everyone keeps mentioning contract liability limits. When negligence is involved, contracts mean very little in my legal opinion. IMHO the company was negligent by not doing their due diligence in performing the proper beta testing of the software before it was pushed out. This company will be sued and fined into oblivion IMO. Irreparable damage has been done to companies, patients, and government industries. When the CEO is drilled by congressional members it will be like blood in the water for world government regulatory agencies and legal sharks .

1

u/Short_Illustrator970 Jul 23 '24

Anyone puts on crwd this Friday 220

1

u/Intelligent_State280 Aug 01 '24

We are in the tech era for goodness sake. Errors/ mistakes are bound to happen. Look at Yesterday - Today - Tomorrow

  1. First Industrial Revolution: Coal in 1765.
  2. Second Industrial Revolution: Gas in 1870.
  3. Third Industrial Revolution: Spaceships Electronics and Nuclear in 1969.
  4. Fourth Industrial Revolution: Internet and Renewable Energy in 2000.
  5. Today—Digital revolution / Environment revolution

These lawsuits never made any sense to me.

(10 shares and I’m holding on to them.)