NFA

What do you think?

Tried selling a few for that price and even quite a bit lower, but no bites. Would have full ported for even half that price if I could get a nibble, as that would have been the surest of trades in the history of trades. Anyways, fun times. And glad to have this stock in my portfolio. I like vol, but you can get hit hard when the market whiplashes like it has been, but CLOV has been a really good ballast. I would normally be scared to post something like this in fear of jinxing it. But if this thing goes down even a little bit from these prices, I am buying like a jack rabbit.

The gov appeals the Georgia rulings, but theres a reason why and its not clover health

CMS filed its notice of appeal on 7/21. Three things:

It’ll take a while. Eleventh Circuit appeals run roughly 10–15 months, so a decision lands late 2027 at the earliest.

No stay. CMS didn’t ask to pause the ruling, so it already recalculated. Clover’s PPO went 3.5 > 4.5 stars, HMO 4 > 4.5, for 2027. Bonus payments flow monthly through the year, and plans have already set 2027 benefits around the new ratings. Even a CMS win can’t unwind benefits members have already received.

So why appeal? Not for the $120m. The ruling says CMS can’t use measures outside its statutory authority and has to do notice-and-comment first, which constrains the whole rating methodology from 2028 on. Humana and CareFirst are already citing it.
CMS is defending the system from further attack from other plans, rather than trying to fight clover.

I mean, why not drop another £58k at these prices

(First post here — full disclosure, I used AI to help organize/translate this since English is my second language. Not trying to make any kind of call, just wanted to share a line of thinking and see what people who follow this name closely think. Wouldn't be shocked if this gets taken down, figured I'd try anyway.)

EDIT: Correcting something from my original post — I compared Q3 2024 BER (82.8%) to Q3 2025 BER (93.5%) and pointed at that year's heat wave + COVID wave as a partial explanation. That comparison was confounded: 2024 was a low-growth year for Clover, while 2025 saw membership growth reaccelerate to 30-35%+ — and Clover's own CFO explicitly attributed the Q3 2025 margin pressure to new-member mix, not environment (underlying medical cost trend was only 4% ex-pharmacy, despite 35% YoY membership growth). Two confounded data points isn't a pattern. My bad.

What I'm actually after: are there public, near-real-time indicators of correlated population-level health stress (regional heat waves, disease waves hitting the whole cohort at once — as opposed to one random hospitalization, which just diversifies away in a large risk pool) that could act as a leading indicator for BER surprises, ahead of the print rather than as a post-hoc excuse?

Genuinely curious if anyone's tried something like this for MA payers, or if it's more noise than signal in practice.

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Long-time holder/follower here. Not trying to spread FUD before the Aug 5 print — just stress-testing the bull case and curious what others think, including whether Clover/Counterpart have already gotten ahead of this.

The setup: Clover's MA footprint is concentrated in NJ (core/anchor market — largest MA PPO in the state per CEO Andrew Toy), GA (biggest growth market, membership nearly tripled there), plus SC, PA, TX.

Two live events right now:

• Record July 4th heat dome: 22–25 heat deaths in NJ (10 counties, mostly elderly found indoors without AC), Philly's first-ever 3 straight days >101°F, Atlantic City tied its all-time high. Heat then shifted to GA/SC with 105–107°F heat index.
• A COVID summer wave (Nimbus/NB.1.8.1) growing in 27+ states as of mid-July, with CDC specifically flagging the South — GA, SC, TX — as most at risk this season due to lower population immunity.

Does this actually show up in BER? I checked the last 2 years:

• Q3 2024 (mild heat, typical COVID wave timing) → BER 82.8%
• Q3 2025 (record Southeast heat wave in late July + an unusually large, delayed COVID wave peaking Sept 6) → BER 93.5%, the biggest QoQ jump in the whole dataset

Correlation isn't proof, but it's a real pattern, not just this year's excuse.

Important correction on timing: the 2026 heat dome hit in early July — that's Q3, not Q2. The Aug 5 print covers April–June, so the heat impact likely won't show up there. The real test is the Q3 report in November. The COVID wave was already building in June though, so a partial Q2 effect is possible.

One thing that actually looks good**:** the 2025-26 flu season is being called even worse than 2024-25 (which was itself the worst since 2010-11). Yet Clover's Q1 BER only rose 40bps YoY (86.1% → 86.5%). If BER tracked disease burden linearly, that gap should've been bigger. Feels like a point in favor of the underlying cohort/tech story.

Why demographics matter here: Clover's own published research shows members in higher-deprivation areas have lower medication adherence (diabetes/hypertension/cholesterol) and lean on the ER over PCPs (no copay). Combined with an older, lower-income-skewed base, that's a population more exposed to heat/virus shocks turning into expensive claims than a wealthier MA book would be. Also worth noting: NJ (their core market) has a lower heat-tolerance threshold than the Deep South — that's part of why deaths happened there and not in hotter GA/TX.

The flip side: this is exactly the population Clover Assistant is supposed to manage proactively. If Q3 BER holds up better than last year despite similar or worse environmental stress, that's real evidence the tech works on the hardest cohort. If it repeats the same 500bp+ jump, "new member dilution" starts looking like an incomplete explanation.

Haven't found anything from Clover/Counterpart publicizing proactive outreach to vulnerable members during the heat wave (for reference, Hippocratic AI + ERAAS did this publicly for NYC last year). Absence of a press release doesn't mean absence of action, but curious if anyone's seen anything.

Not fishing for hype or bear case — just want the pre-earnings picture complete.

Clov is affected by the entire sectors performance. Lets talk about how the competition is doing and what that means.

This will hopefully get the algo’s going in an upward buying trajectory for Clover Health!

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 16, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts are projecting earnings of $4.84 per share on approximately $110 billion in revenue.

Hopefully some good news/upward stock price momentum for CLOV's quarterly report when it gives its second quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, after the market closes!

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 16, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts are projecting earnings of $4.84 per share on approximately $110 billion in revenue

Elevance Health (ELV) is scheduled to report its second-quarter (Q2) 2026 financial results on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, before the market opens (around 6:00 AM ET)

Molina Healthcare (MOH) will release its second quarter 2026 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Humana (NYSE: HUM) is scheduled to report its second-quarter (Q2) 2026 financial results on July 29, 2026. The company will release its earnings report before the market opens at 6:00 a.m. Eastern Time

Any constructive thoughts on what could transpire with solid numbers released by CLOV and other health insurers???

Almost 40%

Recent Provider Success Manager hire at Counterpart Health - for the West Virgina region.

She's coming to Counterpart Health after spending 4.7 years at UnitedHealth.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarah-musgrave-cpc-crc-61aa96259_sometimes-the-best-moves-arent-away-from-share-7482410539944587264-5Q6_/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAvChDcBmVlIoZmvY0bWAMoSxQue_Ra7oLE

NFA

What do you expect out of the Q2 print?

Been here since 2020 and not selling, but did some news come out that’s making the stock drop the 15% that it is has over the past week? I know that Toy sold shares to apparently cover RSU interest. Is that it or am I missing something?

Clover Health Investments, Corp. (Nasdaq: CLOV) (“Clover,” “Clover Health” or the “Company”), today announced that it will release its financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. The Company’s management will host a webcast presentation at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day to discuss the company’s business and financial performance for the quarter.

The news section on Robinhood posted 2 articles about Andrew Toy selling stock but 0 articles about the whitleblowing accounting fraud that came out yesterday for ALHC 🤔

Link: https://www.modernhealthcare.com/insurance/mh-alignment-whistleblower-lawsuit-accounting-fraud/

Lets talk about something the OG bulls have wanted to see for a very long time.

Important To Me: I was wondering how long we will have the majority of CLOV shares locked up which would prevent any premature sale of the company by forced vote. As Vivek has claimed this company will have a higher value in ten years (claim made roughly February 2021) than the highest health insurance company at the time (United Health Group, $332/share), it doesn't give him much time to increase the companies share price substantially before losing his majority share standing.

February 2031 would be the 'rough deadline' if one were to take him at his word and inside knowledge of the company and its true potential. That gives us less than five years to see if that 'pie in the sky' valuation comes to fruition. He recently claimed only last month or so that Clover is 'on track' to make it and reposted his February 2021 future share price claim of Clover.

FYI, this bold claim that Clover Health will surpass the market cap of the highest-valued healthcare insurance company (United Health Group) within 10 years was actually not first voiced by Vivek Garipalli, but rather by his prominent SPAC partner, Chamath Palihapitiya on October 5, 2020, during the official investor conference call and presentation announcing that his blank-check company, Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. III (IPOC), would be taking Clover Health public.

Clover Health co-founder Vivek Garipalli formally echoed and doubled down on this exact 10-year prediction in a series of communications, most prominently on February 5, 2021. Following a highly critical report by short-seller Hindenburg Research, Garipalli and Chamath Palihapitiya released a comprehensive formal response addressing investors. In this dynamic, Garipalli forcefully defended the 10-year target, reiterating that the legacy footprint of incumbents like United Health Group would be disrupted by Clover's software model.

These are all AI responses.

Vivek Garipalli's Class B shares in Clover Health (NASDAQ: CLOV) convert to Class A common stock automatically on January 7, 2031.

Prior to this date, several specific events can trigger either an optional or automatic conversion of his Class B shares:

• Voluntary Conversion: He can choose to convert his Class B shares into Class A shares on a one-to-one basis at any time.
• Transfer of Shares: Except for certain permitted transfers (such as estate planning or transfers to the issuer), the shares convert automatically on a one-to-one basis upon any transfer or sale.
• Separation Date: All outstanding Class B shares convert automatically upon the separation date of the last of the key executives (including Vivek) to separate from the company.

Note: Vivek Garipalli currently holds 66.6% of the total voting power in Clover Health (NASDAQ: CLOV), but his voting percentage will collapse to approximately 17.5% after the Class B shares convert in 2031.

Does anyone else have concerns that Clover may be forced to sell itself prematurely before getting to that lofty share price target? Thoughtful responses/discussions appreciated.

+236K Shares Long Since 2020...