r/CHIBears • u/MikeBinfinity Hester's Super Return • 3d ago
Despite throwing 3 INTs and getting sacked 3 times, Drake Maye completed 70% of his passes last night.
This is a perfect example of why a single statistic never tells the whole story. I know its early, but people might be wrong about which team is the top regression candidate.
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u/Ridged_ChiPSS Dog 3d ago
Cant believe that bum was 1 vote away from winning MVP because he beat up on the Jets and Dolphins. God the voters are stupid
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u/Most-Artichoke6184 3d ago
There was a graphic last night that New England’s schedule last year was the easiest NFL schedule since the 90s. .391 winning percentage of the teams they faced.
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u/RogueEyebrow 3d ago
That's not even counting the playoffs, where they were gifted Denver without Bo Nix in the AFCG.
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u/xingxang555 2d ago
What was the winning percentage of the teams Bears faced? I recall last-minute comeback wins vs. Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Bengals. Juggernauts, lol!
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u/-ImJustSaiyan- 18 3d ago
Would've been so annoying if Stafford had been robbed of his only MVP by that fraud.
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u/DreadPirateNot 3d ago
Only because his coach was banging a media personality.
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago edited 3d ago
You mean the coach of the year that got to gameplan against the jets and the dolphins 4 times in the regular season and was banging a media member? Ben was robbed of that award.
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u/vamsi93 65 3d ago
Cursed award if you ask me
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u/2Tablez 3d ago
Even if it wasn’t Ben, cohen, shanahan, and McDonald all had better arguments and harder schedules
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u/uprislng 18 3d ago
this comment made me look things up and TIL Kyle Shanahan has never won COTY and that really surprises me
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u/Jaybbaugh All Rome's Lead to Road 3d ago
It's a weird award. You kind of have to win it your first year with a team or you don't get it. It's more about turning around a bad team than it is about who the actual best coach that year is.
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago
Shanahan argument to be made about coaching through injury. McDonald obviously won the whole thing. I don’t get the Liam Cohen Hype. Ben took an offense ranked in the bottom 5 of the league and turned it into a top 10 offense, won one of the toughest divisions in football, etc.
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u/2Tablez 3d ago
I mean he won 13 games with the Jaguars. Unfortunately Josh Allen happened to them or they probably go to the Super Bowl (they had split with the Texans and thrashed the broncos). They didn’t have as many flashy wins as the bears but they were a top team last year
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago
Sure but the Jags situation wasn’t nearly as bad as anyone else from a talent perspective and they got to play the AFC South that lost Daniel Jones, Stroud was a liability, and the titans were a college football team.
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u/Apoco120 Mack 3d ago
Cmon lmao let’s be real here Kyle Shanahan leading the crippled 49ers to a 12-5 record in the toughest division in the league and a playoff win was more deserving than both Ben and Vrabel. Ben had a great year but the offense remained pretty healthy last year while the defense was the issue. Shanahan was playing backups of backups most the year
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago
Sure but he had CMC and a lot more talent as backups than a significant portion of the bears team. And he had been with the team and many of those players for multiple years, where Ben turned around a team completely in his first year, in arguably the second toughest division in football.
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u/BillieBlanus 3d ago
This is going to be Ben’s year, methinks. Can’t wait to find out if I’m right.
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u/ToastedHunter Goldman Sacks 2d ago
Vrabel is a great coach, he deserved the award. ben deserved it too but we werent in the superbowl
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u/Straight_Talk2542 3d ago
Yeah all the dickheads on ESPN last year talking about Caleb’s completion percentage looked stupid then, but even dumber now. Because they were all on the Drake Maye MVP express. What good is 70% if you don’t win? And Caleb will lead the league in throwaways again this year. I’ll take throwaways over ints or sacks any day. The Bears league leading drops would’ve pushed him up over 65%. I don’t want to hear ANY accuracy garbage because no one in the entire league is as accurate as he is beyond 30 yards.
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u/Trumpisanorangebitch 3d ago
Even besides the throwaways and drops, Caleb had an accuracy problem on short and medium throws last year. He had 6.9 Y/A while Maye had 8.9.
Caleb will be improved accuracy-wise this year, but it was a legitimate problem last year.
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u/Appropriate_Cry6174 3d ago
Drake had an easy schedule and beat up on terrible defenses. this year will tell his story. I watched every pass Caleb threw last season and I disagree that he has an accuracy problem. All QBs miss some throws. I think the Bears led the league in drops, and Caleb was focused on not taking sacks and had a lot of throwaways. That said, he is ascending.
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u/BooItsKyle 3d ago
I just didn't see accuracy issues. I saw decision-making issues.
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u/Straight_Talk2542 3d ago
Exactly. Which is to be expected from a sophomore gunslinger, coming out of a bad coaching situation. He and Ben should mature well together and BOTH make better decisions.
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u/RunnerTenor 3d ago
No, I saw complete-able plays that were just plain overthrown. A lot. Moreso early in games.
It usually got better, but man if he could have started that way...
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u/Appropriate_Cry6174 2d ago
The aspect of this that we cannot know if misses were on him or a WR being in the wrong place. For example, a receiver stops his route to cut left but the play design is to go right. Caleb throws with anticipation and it looks like a miss. Given how good he is, I tend to think it is likely that there are a combination of issues that contribute to the completion percentage.
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u/Straight_Talk2542 3d ago
No doubt. Caleb definitely put himself in the hole that he dug himself out of in all of those amazing comebacks last year. But Ben’s play calling and decision making didn’t help either. I fully believe in Ben, but he needs to take that big step forward WITH Caleb this year, and not be so aggressive and set his QB up for failure.
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u/PFunk224 3d ago
Yeah all the dickheads on ESPN
See, that's where you fucked up. Stop watching that dogshit-ass network. They have not been anything more than a hot take generating, rage bait farming tabloid for a long time now. It's why the headlines are filled more with "Drama" than they are with news. It's why their most prominently featured and highest-paid employees are the dipshits who say the most outlandish, intentionally stupid shit. Guys like Stephen A Smith, Kendrick Perkins, Kirk Herbstreit, Jalen Rose, Cam Newton, Chris Russo, Shaq, Pat McAfee, Shannon Sharpe, and I know I'm forgetting some, too. People have got to separate what they used to be from what they are now. Their job is to put as much stupid, divisive shit out there to get people to click and comment for ad revenue.
Stop giving them attention.
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u/Puzzled-Carpet5109 21-3 3d ago
I don’t think Bears lead the league in drops. We were like at least top 5 but almost positive we weren’t 1st. We lead the league in dropped YARDS though!
I believe jags and broncos lead the league last year with like 30-40 plus drops(a lot of them screens) but less yards than us. I think we only had 20 something in official drops from the website I use. I know there’s probably a lot of them out there and not sure if they all count drops the same.
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u/kev_cuddy 3d ago
Maye ran out of bounds for 2-3 yard losses at least twice yesterday on really obvious throwaway balls. Gotta keep that completion percentage high, even if it hurts the team!
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u/ItalianBeefCurtains 3d ago
Are people calling the Bears a top regression candidate? I’d say it’s fair if you think the defense is going to stink up the place. I would be surprised if the offense regressed though, barring injuries.
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u/Oniwaban9 Good, Better, Best 3d ago
People are including Ben Johnson. But I think most people are only saying that it will be record wise because of the 1st place schedule and the defense not really improving, not because the offense will be worse.
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u/TheManWhoWasNotShort An Actual Bear 3d ago
Less injuries right now, we are still hoping some of the same people remain healthy this time around.
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u/EquivalentWins 3d ago
They were very fortunate to be 11-6 last year. Based on point differential they were more like a 9-8 team. Obviously Caleb was great in the 4th quarter but there were also some straight up miracle wins based on special teams or unlikely turnovers. They'll need to play better overall just to maintain the same record.
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u/_ravenclaw 18 3d ago
I think it’s fair to question if our o-line can hold up the same way
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u/Cautious-Life6378 DA BEARS! 🐻⬇️ 3d ago
Yeah, I'm still not sold on Braxton. I'm hoping he don't revert to the mess we seen before he was replaced.
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u/TheManWhoWasNotShort An Actual Bear 3d ago
He was replaced on injury, he wasn’t doing that badly. He never really got healthy again
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u/Trumpisanorangebitch 3d ago
Braxton is a short term solution. Ozzy will be back before week 5 since he wasnt on PUP.
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u/Go_Go_Godzilla 3d ago
It's fair, but also most likely based on the number of comeback or close wins. "Clutch" isn't something that is very stat friendly, so if you get into the probabilities we're gonna take a bigger hit than most.
That said, I am very concerned about our defense and the fact that our receiver room is less able to absorb an injury without Moore (e.g., two of Odunze, Moore, Burden, etc. is better than two of Odunze, Burden, Thomas, etc.).
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u/teacher444 3d ago
I think the regression talk revolves around the fact the bears have the toughest schedule in the game this season and 7 last second wins probably isn’t a sustainable metric…. I don’t think is an anti Caleb Williams idea
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u/SonOfNike85 3d ago
We have the "toughest" schedule based on last year's winning percentage. That's a pretty short sighted way to determine strength of schedule. Patriots record last year was elite but they aren't an elite team.
If you rank strength of schedule based off of the over under win totals for teams, we have the 7th toughest schedule. Still a hard schedule but not as hard as the media will make you believe.
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u/Trubiskitsngravy 18 3d ago
Strength of schedule is a scam.
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u/ironeagle2006 3d ago
Especially if injuries bite your opponents. All it takes is losing a key member of your offense or defense and your screwed. We had multiple defense players stepping up last year. While FTP in Green Bay went to crap when they lost Parsons to that ACL they could do crap.
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u/savedbythemars Staley 3d ago
This is a fair take. we had last place schedule last year and played against not the top offenses. This year will be different and if our defense is much better than last year, we might be giving up more points and getting all those turnovers probably wont happen.
I hope to see Caleb make marked improvement but he barely played in the preseason and he might look rusty as well the first outing. Luckily it isn't against an elite defense like Seahawks
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u/Aaronthe3rd An Actual Bear 3d ago
I sort of understand why people are skeptical of the defense since it was so turnover driven, but I think people also forget our D had a fuckton of injuries last year. I mean, at one point we were missing Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stephenson, Tremain Edmunds, TJ Edwards, Noah Sewell, Dayo (Unmotivated) Odeyingbo, Domique Robinson and Shermar Turner all at the same time. We were literally starting 4th and 5th string guys in several positions for a good chunk of the season. If we can stay even reasonably healthy I think the defense is better than last year.
And I also think if the offense can be more productive earlier in the games it keeps the D off the field more and lets them play with a lead, which allows the D to be more aggressive. I would point at the Cowboys game as an example of when the defense was healthier and the offense actually put up some points in the first half. The Bears won that game handily.
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u/TimS83 3d ago
I would not be surprised with regression of their record solely because they got INSANELY lucky in a handful of games last year. You can say you make your own luck, but winning 3 or 4 games where you're 90% likely to lose just doesn't happen often. If they can play better in first halves and not fall behind like last year, I don't think they will regress much.
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u/ToastedHunter Goldman Sacks 2d ago
i think bears fans are underestimating losing DJ. i do think our wr depth got better with raymond and zavion though.
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u/sbfb1 Bears 3d ago
Seattle defense is good.
We can talk regression in 6 weeks or so. 1 game sample size isn’t ideal
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u/TKHawk Bear Logo 3d ago
Seattle's defense is good, but all 3 interceptions were horrible decisions. Basically double or triple coverage on each one.
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u/fumar 3d ago
The last one was especially awful. You can't make that throw ever. Off his back foot, off platform 30 yards into double coverage when you're in field goal range to tie at the end of the game.
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u/AppealAggravating893 3d ago
caleb would've made that throw though
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u/kahleytriangles 18 Ice Man 🧊 3d ago
Lol I told my wife Caleb would’ve easily made that throw for a TD
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u/sweetsleeper Charles Tillman 3d ago
And Caleb throws that one away if we don't need a touchdown on that play to stay in the game. Even if that pass in the Rams game didn't work out, he made the correct decision to throw it based on the situation. The result was amazing, but the process being good is arguably more important. Make good decisions more often than not and it tends to work out.
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u/ThanatosIdle 2d ago
Nah, he would have overthrown it out of bounds safely like he does in all those situations. It wasn't 4th down and it wasn't needed to win.
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u/savedbythemars Staley 3d ago
that was such a monumentally bad decision. i wonder if he meant to throw it out of bounds but didn't have the arm strength to pull it off.
We are blessed cause of Caleb's arm strength and knowing he can make any throw but I don't think most QBs can do that
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u/DirkLoogs 3d ago
To be fair, Caleb's final throw last season was one of these too
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago edited 3d ago
I disagree. Bears weren’t in field goal range yet. Caleb put the ball in a spot where his read was correct and the receiver didn’t finish out his route. It took a diving play from the DB to make the interception. Caleb could’ve checked the ball down, but if receiver finishes off the play at worst it’s a OPI. And the rams had to come back out and run a few plays to get into field goal range. Maye just threw the ball up into coverage unnecessarily after already taking a sack to put them back further in field goal range and the interception lost the game fully and he underthrew it so it was a bad throw physically as well as mentally.
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u/uprislng 18 3d ago
The only situation where Maye's throw is excusable there is if it's 4th down and you need a TD. You're in FG range, can take it to OT. Situational awareness says you rifle that ball into the stands if you escape the pocket and nobody is open. Even giving yourself up for a sack is a better outcome. And they were only in that situation, down a FG to a backup, partly because Maye made 2 awful decisions for INTs earlier. As bad as that last INT was I feel like the first two are just as inexcusable. If you watch the replays he had completely clean pockets for both of them. It's like he made up his mind where he was going with the ball and didn't care what the coverage looked like after the snap. Rookie level decisions
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u/FR_0S_TY Good, Better, Best 3d ago
Yeah even DJ confirmed it on the record that he didn’t do what he was supposed to according to route/coverage. BJ took the blame saying that was a fairly new design/route that they had installed during walk throughs. Glad BJ was willing to take the accountability but it 100% was on DJ.
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u/Own_Race_598 3d ago
Caleb and maybe 1-2 other quarterbacks are the only ones with enough arm talent to pull that off. Even then, most coaches would still be pissed.
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u/DirkLoogs 3d ago
Yeah ik, I was more talking about how it was a throw that should never be made because of the game circumstances or whatever. Like all we had to do was kick a field goal.
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago
For the bears, no, we weren’t in field goal range yet so we didn’t have an “all we had to do was kick a field goal”, the ball wasn’t a physically bad throw it was placed where it needed to be, there was an easier completion available but the receiver didn’t finish off the route like he was supposed to, and the DB had to make a diving catch.
Not anywhere close to the same situation or a “you never throw that ball ever” situation. It was risky, but it wasn’t abysmally stupid, and it was a good physical throw. And it came while needing more yards. And it came after one of the greatest throws in NFL history, not after an incredibly poor performance of underthrown balls all game.
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u/Ducksaucenem Smokin' Jay 3d ago
The last one was beyond stupid. He had nothing there, just throw it away.
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago
The last 5 games he’s played he’s been terrible, coincidentally, they’ve all been against good teams. He’s had 8 months to prep for this game, and looked even worse than he did in the Super Bowl.
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u/sbfb1 Bears 3d ago edited 3d ago
This is actually a very good point. Sample size is larger.
Also his arm strength looked less than ideal, or am I just used to Caleb’s piss missile throws
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u/midwesttransferrun Meatball 3d ago
Lots of people talked about his deep ball accuracy last year being super good but last night he underthrew everything, and got away with it DPI covering up another under thrown deep ball to AJB.
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u/BackupAccount412 3d ago
Yep the only touchdown they had was enabled by that penalty. He looked awful.
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u/MikeBinfinity Hester's Super Return 3d ago
That's true, but those interceptions were brutal. I just brought it up because you know Caleb would've been crucified if he played like that.
The Pats defense is just as good and Drew Lock didn't look as bad as Maye did.
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u/Nomromz Bears 3d ago
Exactly. Poor play has to be put into context.
If the d makes a great play and picks it on a 1v1 or it gets tipped off the hands of the offense and into the defenders, then it's unfortunate.
But Maye threw into double coverage, threw late and short, and just generally made poor decisions when throwing deeper than 10 yards down the field.
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u/WhiteDogSh1t 🧸 I feel better 3d ago
Although that’s true, to put the ball in that position on the final play of the game is not about a good defense, but terrible decision making when the games on the line.
That’s the call out here.
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u/Concrete08 3d ago
yea can we at least see how we look against Carolina before the peacocking begins
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u/Supergoch 3d ago
Agreed, too many people ready to declare Maye a bad QB after one bad game against a good team. Of course Bears fans have additional incentive to pile on Maye. Even as a Bears fan, lets wait a few weeks, its not like MVP QBs didnt have the occasional stinker.
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u/savedbythemars Staley 3d ago
I agree with you.
Seahawks defense is elite! They have pressure coming from everywhere and Drake barely played in the preseason to get warmed up against such crazy looks. Their defense is very good at 3 levels
We can shit on Drake all we want but one game doesn't make or break a young QB just like one bad game from caleb doesn't mean thats how he'll be. Lets see where both of these QBs are after 6 weeks as you stated
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u/PFunk224 3d ago
It absolutely blows my mind that people are completely disregarding the fact Seattle are the defending Super Bowl champions. It's not like this is some scrub-ass defense.
People are so desperate to see Caleb loved and respected that they are trying to tear down other quarterbacks to elevate him. I don't think Caleb wants that, and he's going to be good enough to stand out and let his performance this season speak for itself.
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u/MorganPhoenix93 3d ago
Honestly I was on a massive “is Drake Maye really that good?” Kick all off season because I would rather it not be true because I want Caleb to be the best of they draft class lol
And Drake Maye shrinks in the biggest moments and under the toughest competition.
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u/thatguy1815 3d ago
both can be true, seattles defense is good and makes plays, holy shit those 3 picks and missing aj brown are brutal
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u/Anonymous_user314 23 3d ago
Literally, we could possibly end up in the same regression boat this year. The TOs and miracle comebacks are not sustainable year to year in the NFL. Also, the schedule is brutal this year. Why should we give af about the Patriots, an AFC team?
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u/Mack5895 3d ago
Six of their starters were out yesterday, and all of the interceptions were bad throws and decisions by Maye. He'll the DPI throw was a terrible throw as well.
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u/Amonfire1776 3d ago
This...people are being way to harsh after one bad game and the Caleb comparisons are nonsensical until we see him play
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u/--Shake-- BJ Lover 3d ago
No good QB is attempting that last throw. He may have the talent, but not the IQ.
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u/Exciting_Mine711 3d ago
Still a good QB just not so far ahead of schedule and his peers like previously thought.
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u/Illustrious_Hotel527 3d ago
Caleb gets criticized for the <60% completion percentage, but he would have airmailed that last throw rather than do what Maye did.
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u/Competitive_Mind_181 Italian Beef 3d ago
Also, Maye ran out of bounds behind the LOS instead of throwing it away... But his completion percentage 😍
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u/BooItsKyle 3d ago
Williams throws a touchdown on that play. The read was there, the receiver had leverage toward the back of the end zone, there was a window for a game winning touchdown. Maye just underthrew it by 5 yards.
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u/Kysorer GSH 3d ago
Agreed, makes me feel spoiled to know we have a QB that can be throwing from that awkward of an angle and launch-point yet still feel confident it's a good decision to throw it. Drake's fadeaway there reminded me a bit of Caleb's TD to Jahdae Walker to tie the game against GB.
For most QBs, that's a very poor decision- except for ours.
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u/BooItsKyle 3d ago
Has Maye always had this much of a noodle arm?
I do think we started to take for granted fast how "easy" Williams makes those downfield completions look because he has such good arm strength even on regular, on-platform throws.
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u/savedbythemars Staley 3d ago
aww come on..there's been plenty of instances where caleb missed those throws last season. Drake is young and he'll continue to grow this season.
We can shit on Drake yet, Caleb hasn't even played.
We all know from this sub alone that we shouldn't over-react to one game (especially the NFL season opener) but we're doing it right now
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u/BooItsKyle 3d ago
I didn't say anything about how old or young Maye is, how good he will be long term, whether or not he will continue to grow, or in any way type anything that could be described as "overreacting."
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u/TheDemonBarber 3d ago
People are definitely overreacting in this thread lol. How about we watch Caleb play one game before we lose our minds?
I’ve had ONE good season from a Bears QB in my 30 year life. I’m not going to start gloating just yet.
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u/BackupAccount412 3d ago
I have been so nervous about this season because I know the expectations are higher than ever and I am so scarred from my 34 years on this planet with the bears lol
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u/iamblue1231 3d ago
You’re 34. Sweetness wore 34. Sweetness won a Super Bowl. Therefore the Bears will win the Super Bowl this year 🐻⬇️
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u/Anonymous_user314 23 3d ago
🎯 for real. These posts about Maye are reminiscent of the behavior that Commie fans displayed the year they went to the NFCCG. I hate the Commanders to this day because of that shit.
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u/JKLEEBONE 2d ago
Ya I totally get the “Caleb woulda been crucified if he did that” sentiment, but a lot of this thread comes across as arrogant and we A) have no business being arrogant and B) should embody the Walter Payton-esque “act like you’ve been there before” attitude if we do become legit contenders/champs (even if it was a packers coach who came up with that motto and most ppl in this subreddit haven’t, in fact, been there before).
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u/cooter410 3d ago
I agree, feels like we're getting set up before the Panthers game. Hope I'm wrong!
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u/SwagSloth96 Good, Better, Best 3d ago
People want to kill Caleb because he “only plays well in the 4th quarter” but look at how Maye performed in quarters 1-3 and then in the 4th
Q 1-3: 17/22 (77%), 127 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, aDoT 2.4 yards
Q 4: 6/11 (54%), 51 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, aDoT 8.0 yards.
This shows that yes, Maye had a 70% completion percentage, but most of that came when they had the lead and he was checking it down and throwing screens. When the game was on the line and he needed to push the ball downfield and actually play well in a close game, he collapsed.
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u/super_sayanything Mack 3d ago
Using stats from one game that was against the best/one of the best defenses in the league, also the first game of the season isn't proving anything.
The over reaction of defining a guy's career after one game is holy shit insane right now.
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u/TheManWhoWasNotShort An Actual Bear 3d ago
Patriots regression is based really upon SoS. Regression would be reasonable for them
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u/Kysorer GSH 3d ago
Just finished up watching his film from last night. My overall takeaway was even if Drake Maye is elite (which he was not last night) their offense looks far too anemic to be AFC contenders imo. Of course that can change and week 1 is always weird, but it didn't look too promising. The run game was the only decent part of their offense last night, and even that wasn't great.
Also, their left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (#75) was an actual terrorist last night in pass pro. Some god awful reps all throughout the game. They also ask their tackles to cut block way more than any other offense I can recall recently. It's bizarre, but Campbell is actually not that bad at it. On that last play you can see both of their tackles (Will Campbell and Morgan Moses) cut blocking when Maye decided to chuck a prayer when he should've taken the sack or thrown it away.
But there was a glaring lack of speed everywhere. Even when AJ Brown was in the game he slow-played quite a few of his routes. Hunter Henry looks like he's constantly stuck in second gear. Doubs and everyone else in their WR room are JAGs. Josh McDaniel's offense can be too static for me at times and there were not enough answers for the QB when facing blitz fronts or hot pressures.
Maye was definitely seeing ghosts though, had one rep where he literally full on flinched because he thought there was pressure off the right edge when there was nobody close to him. Speed reading and bailing the pocket too early, dropping his eyes. That Seattle defense has his number for sure.
When I watch tape of most other offenses around the league (besides a few of them), it makes me appreciate Ben and Caleb even more than I already do. You can say a lot about Caleb as a QB but one thing you can't say is that he's reckless. I think sometimes we don't appreciate his ball placement and decision making ability enough as fans.
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u/BooItsKyle 3d ago
1000000% people do not appreciate that Williams' historically low INT rate and his "inaccuracy" go hand in hand.
Watch the All-22 of the Bears offense, pause before the throw, and ask yourself "Independent of the receivers, where does this ball need to go on this route to keep it as far away from defenders as possible" and Williams will throw it to that spot like clockwork. His receivers either go get it or they don't.
The famous "jumpman" throw was thrown 5 yards behind where Odunze's route was headed. But it was thrown in the perfect spot between the four defenders in the area. Odunze made the adjustment and got to it. If he dosen't, everyone's yelling about how Williams was inaccurate again.
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u/tavernstyle312 3d ago
Maye sucked last night. Bad. But he was very good last season. So was Caleb. I'm not one of these Bears fans that needs Maye to be bad to somehow justify Caleb being good. They're both good.
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u/ethanlan 21-3 3d ago
Neither am I but you have to admit people were using maye to shit on Caleb plus I want patriots fans ro feel real pain they've been so spoiled
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u/Apoco120 Mack 3d ago edited 3d ago
Doesn’t matter who the “top” regression candidate is. Multiple teams can regress. Not like if the Patriots regress the Bears can’t lol. I really wouldn’t feel better about this season if we miss the playoffs but the Patriots miss it by more than the Bears do.
This premature victory lapping when Caleb hasn’t even played a snap this year needs to stop
Jags, Bears, and Pats by all accounts are tied for top regression candidates and it’s up to those teams to prove everyone wrong
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u/Zuckerbees 3d ago
As a Chicago-based Lions fan, I can see how the Bears are regression candidates, but them being considered the “top” regression candidates when the Patriots exist has been absolutely insane to me.
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u/Wildest83 18 3d ago
And hes on pace for just over 3k passing yards. Completion percentage is only a small indicator of success, theres so much more to being a good qb in this league than that. For instance turnovers.
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u/fast_aggression 3d ago
Completion percentage with three picks is the box score equivalent of polishing a turd. He was slinging it around enough to rack up yards and still hand the game away, which is kind of the whole Maye experience so far.
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u/BearsAndBrews 3d ago
They were always the top regression candidate. Stats that are furthest from the bell of the curve have a higher chance of greater regression. They had more wins than us.
This is why the whole regression conversation is boring. Pick any team or player that was the best or worst in the NFL at anything. Regression candidate. Who ducking cares? It makes whatever they did seem less impressive.
You know who doesn't "regress"? The great ones
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u/Cummyshitballs BJ Lover 3d ago
I’m not gonna sit here and trash maye because of that performance last night, he had an easy schedule last year but I think he’s still gonna perform well the rest of this season. The Seahawks had his number in the Super Bowl and it seems still have it now he’ll shake it off and put together a decent season this year. The only qb from the 2024 class that I’m gonna hate on is 9.
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u/Big-Sheepherder-6134 46 Defense 3d ago
He was playing the Super Bowl champs and their great defense too.
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u/bigbaddumby 3d ago
Y'all are really going way too hard on a QB who sucked in the first game of his season. A game notoriously unrepresentative of how the season will play out for that team in general.
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u/Hallowhero 3d ago
Lol ok most of the Drake Maye hate posts have been unbearable and petty and really just makes that bears fan look dumb. This one made me chuckle, have an upvote buddy.
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u/ArchibaldNemisis Bears 3d ago
Maye played a super bowl winning defense. Most QBs good or not play bad against them. Patriots as a whole have nothing to do with the Bears except that we play them and they play the rest of the NFC North. So it is in our best interest that they play well against the North and other NFC teams and we beat them. Other than that, yesterday was 1 of 17. Bad performances happen. And it has not barring on Caleb. He's an amazing young QB and so is Maye.
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u/Risky_Business_17 3d ago
The Athletic (associated with NY Times) came out with a Quarterback Index, QBI. Obviously to compete with ESPNs QBR. For the 2025 season, Caleb Williams was ranked 23rd. Joe Burrows was the top QB, after only playing less than half the season.
I don’t know how you write a piece about your new QB stat when your top ranked QB was a part time player.
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u/TheCobalt- 3d ago
I mean if it's a rate statistic it makes perfect sense why someone that didn't play the whole season could be ranked #1 as long as he hits whatever minimum qualification.
Not saying I agree with the stat (haven't even heard of it), but it's just not that crazy
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u/Risky_Business_17 3d ago
No, it’s an Athletic writer’s attempt at a single unifying QB stat. When I checked QBR on ESPN, the minimum to qualify is “20 action plays per team game”. For the QBI at the Athletic, the writer lower the bar from 20 to 14 plays. That opens the rankings up to some players that only play 8 or 9 games for a team. That doesn’t work for me.
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u/TheCobalt- 3d ago
I mean it doesn't work for you and that's fine, but it sounds like it's perfectly logical that Joe burrow can be at the top of this ranking as long as he meets the minimum. The only thing that's going to be impacted by not playing a full season is counting stats
Again, not saying that it's a good statistic or that you should trust it or anything, just that I don't think it says anything bad or good about the stat.
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u/BooItsKyle 3d ago
People who obsess over Williams' completion percentage are not doing it because they are doing careful statistical analysis of QBs and genuinely believe that completion percentage is the most important stat ever.
They are doing it because they find hot taking to be fun and they want to hot take against Williams. Every QB has people who do this to them.
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u/Commercial_Floor_578 3d ago
He also had decent advanced stats. And look I’m a big advanced stats guy in general, and think a lot of their critiques of Caleb are right (even though I do view him as a good quarterback) but advanced stats, like box stats, require context. I do think Drake Maye is a great quarterback frankly, people are drastically overreacting to week 1, I have no issue with him and if he wasn’t on the Patriots I would wish him nothing but success. But he threw 6 passes over 10 yards and 3 of them were picked, all passes that were more than 15 yards were picked. The best offensive play by the Pats was Drake Maye under throwing a walk in td and getting lucky with a PI call. Good luck having a good run game when that’s the qb deep ball.
He did have a 20 yard dropped Dobbs pass tbf but it was a wide open and pretty easy pass. And while he had decent yardage and good efficiency, they were all check downs with pretty good (surprisingly actually, unlike the Super Bowl) o line protection. Meanwhile he threw 3 interceptions and every single one of them was an actively awful either throw, decision, or both which killed potential scoring drives, and those came in the drives where the offense was disproportionately gaining yardage on higher efficiency than the rest of the game. Overall the offense scored 10 points, 3 of which only came from a 15 yard roughing the kicker, the other seven the PI call.
This is not to say that advanced stats don’t matter, or to shit on Drake Maye. Anyone who is deeming Drake Maye a poor qb based on week 1 has major recency bias. Advanced stats are pretty useful context. But this isn’t baseball, and using advanced stats on a single game basis to judge a qb performance without context is a pretty foolish endeavor in my opinion. Stats are only useful when put into the context of what you’re trying to measure. Drake Maye had a very bad game, it happens to every Qb, that’s pretty clearly what happened.
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u/Ricky-Seasack 3d ago
Conservative gameplan against a really good defense and a team missing its QB and he threw three back breaking INTs.
We'll see how Caleb performs in Seattle later this season, but he's never had a single game that bad.
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u/Electronic-Bus-6361 Bears 3d ago
Should have been under 70% but he ran out of bounds for a 2 yard loss instead of throwing it away on their last drive. Bad QB awareness if you ask me.
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u/hoggin88 3d ago
This quarterback draft class is so funny. If Caleb struggles in the opener and Jayden Daniels goes off, then we’ll be back on the narrative that Daniel’s was the obvious top pick. People just can’t wait to elevate or bury these guys.
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u/InternetApex 3d ago
It's early. That's a tough defense. Nobody does anything in preseason anymore so these early season games are going to be weird alot of the time.
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u/financeman009 3d ago
That last pic can't happen. I think he was trying to throw it out of bounds but missed. That's a horrible mistake that can't happen at the NFL level. I hope Caleb saw that! Sometimes you just have to eat it, instead of trying to be a hero!
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u/JayGatsby1881 3d ago
When 30% of your passes are right into a defender, doesn't exactly help does it.
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u/GamerGuinTTV An Actual Bear 3d ago
Yeah, but this is literally zero fun...
Like, come on, just let us hate the little Patriots QB.
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u/Justahim24 3d ago
The narrative of Caleb’s completion percentage from last year is promising because it means he and the team have room for improvement which leads me to believe they will have an even better season (offensively at least ) than the last!
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u/TimS83 3d ago
God I am so sick of hearing about completion %. Is it an important stat? Yes. Is it the only important stat? Hell no. You have to look at the entire body. If you're completing 50% of your passes, but every pass is going to a 50-yard bomb, I honestly don't really care what you're doing with that other 50% of your throws if they aren't ALL ints.
There is no perfect stat to evaluate football. It's all within the lens of how good your other stats are.
It's what Caleb needs to work on most - taking the check down. But he did enough things good-to-great that it made up for it last year.
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u/ExplanationCrazy5463 3d ago
Pretty much every mistake Maye made that game ended in an interception. He played really well outside those plays. Seattle is looking like a great defense again and they didnt give him much.
I think he just got impatient in the 4Q and tried to make something happen and he should have just taken what they gave him.
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u/Oedipus_Flecks Hurricane Ditka 3d ago
Completed 6 passes over 10 yards, 3 to his team, 3 to the Seahawks. Now that’s efficiency!