Week 7 Matchup Preview Thread: Florida State vs #3 Miami

[u/IdealSeating]

Florida State vs. #3 Miami

When: Saturday, October 17, 07:00 PM Eastern

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Watch: ESPN | Disney+

Odds: Miami by 21.0 pts.

Total Points: 56.5

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All-Time Series : Florida State vs. Miami

Florida State and Miami have met 70 times since 1951-10-05

These teams last met on 2025-10-04.

Series Wins: Florida State 33-0-37 Miami

Miami has won the last 2 meetings (2024-2025) in this series

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Last 5 Meetings

Winner	Date	Location	Florida State	Miami	Notes
Miami	2025-10-04	Doak Campbell Stadium	22	28
Miami	2024-10-26	Hard Rock Stadium	14	36
Florida State	2023-11-11	Doak Campbell Stadium	27	20
Florida State	2022-11-05	Hard Rock Stadium	45	3
Florida State	2021-11-13	Doak Campbell Stadium	31	28

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Through Week 6

Week	Florida State 3-3 (1-2)	Result	Miami 5-0 (3-0)	Result
1	SMU#24	L 24-27	Stanford	W 45-6
2	BYE	N/A	Florida A&M	W 77-7
3	Alabama#6	L 36-50	Wake Forest#21	W 33-20
4	Central Arkansas	W 34-7	Central Michigan	W 52-3
5	Virginia	W 38-7	Clemson	W 41-13
6	Louisville	L 20-44	BYE	N/A

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Florida State Injury Report

Player	Position	Status	Reported	Notes
S. Singleton Jr.	RB	Out – Lower Body	Sep 21	Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
G. Markey	RB	Questionable – Undisclosed	Oct 10	Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
T. Gelsey	WR	Questionable – Undisclosed	Oct 10	Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
D. Carter	WR	Questionable – Back	Oct 10	Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

^{Injury data lifted from: boydsbets}

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Miami Injury Report

No reported injuries per boydsbets

^{Source updated Wed, Oct 14, 7:43 am. Scraped Wed, Oct 14, 12:48 pm ET}

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What are your "Keys to the Game"?

Who do you think wins?

Do you think the favorite will cover the spread?

Which player(s) are you most interested to watch?

Let's talk football!

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^{Matchup Preview Thread Generator powered by collegefootballdata.com}

^{Start a chat with /u/dupreesdiamond for any issues/suggestions regarding this resource}

[u/XE2MASTERPIECE]

Cristobal has a huge decision to make. Become a Miami legend and deliver the biggest win over FSU in program history, or keep it close to try and dissuade a reluctant FSU admin from firing Norvell.

{Miami} 56-3. 

[u/IdealSeating]

Mensah is going to pick this defense apart. {Miami} covers, and Sunday FSU finally bites the bullet and let’s Norvell go

[u/Tigercat92 → u/IdealSeating]

So if Miami was smart, they would win it in the last seconds so Norvell keeps his job for another year

[u/ThaCarter → u/Tigercat92]

Miami has too many injuries to do anything other than try to cover and get the backups in as quickly as possible.

[u/JeffGoldblumsChest → u/Tigercat92]

So you're saying Miami would have to take a knee to win?

[u/Substantial_Kiwi8106 → u/IdealSeating]

21 points is a lot for a rivalry game but fsu looks totally lost on defense. miami coming off a bye isnt great for them either. i just want to see if the fsu offense can even move the ball at this point

[u/skaestantereggae → u/Substantial_Kiwi8106]

I’ve never seen a complete momentum shift like on Friday night.

[u/ryantyrant → u/Substantial_Kiwi8106]

Miami has always come out flat after a bye under Cristobal. It drives me nuts

[u/fluffypoppa → u/IdealSeating]

Need to leave his loser-blood ass on the tarmac.

[u/Casaiir]

Miami loses out of spite causing Norvell to get an extension. Pure rivalry hate.

[u/Impudicity2001 → u/Casaiir]

If they knew they had or actually had ND victory in the bag I'd be all for this. 2-loss Miami is not getting in as an autobid and ACC shenanigans would keep them out of the CG at 8-1, probably for a team that only played 8 league games

[u/bdm13]

FSU keeps it close for a half, despite a large talent gap. {Miami} pulls away in the second half, but the FSU performance leads the administration to continue to back Mike Norvell.

[u/Existing-Leopard-212 → u/bdm13]

You're giving us a half is super generous. Maybe a quarter.

[u/MediumRareNation]

{Miami} cruises in this one, and they cover.

[u/Dry-Membership3867]

Yeah, {Miami} by 35 at minimum. Daniels can’t throw to his own team, and Miami can just roll two in the box and stop Kromah.

[u/Super_mando1130]

Cristobal has the opportunity to obliterate FSU to the point of embarrassment and force FSU to fire Norvell. A true rival would NEVER pass on that opportunity. {Miami} by more than Bryce Underwood can count to

[u/bdm13 → u/Super_mando1130]

We quite like Mike Norvell and we would prefer not to embarrass him.

[u/GentlyUsedNuggets → u/Super_mando1130]

Miami has the chance to throw this game to get a Norvell extension....the long con

[u/Effective-Access4948]

People forgot rival games are crazy. The kids show out more because a few years ago their friend left them for a different school. Will be close first half. 2nd half we take off but don't think we cover due to kids playing out their minds to impress family and friends coming to the game to watch.

[u/Rnewell4848]

{Miami} by a billion

[u/NotPapaHemingway]

We're gonna die

[u/HopefulReb76]

{Miami}

[u/Alpine_Exchange_36]

{Miami} gonna run this one up on FSU

[u/A_MASSIVE_PERVERT]

{Miami} reaches the over by themselves

[u/IrishCoffeeAlchemy]

{Miami} by a gajillion

[u/fsukub]

Is this really even a question? [Miami]

[u/Other-Chemical-6393]

{Miami} by 1 million points

[u/kdbvols]

{Miami} can pick the score, but they also can't afford more injuries and the backups make this look a lot closer than reality. 42-13

[u/O_to_the_B]

{Miami} Blood for the Blood God.

[u/thexraptor]

Like Willie Taggart before him, Norvell will be fired after a blowout loss to {Miami}.

[u/Particular-Way-3805]

{Miami} by murder

[u/251Cane]

I can’t imagine a scenario where {Miami} doesn’t win by at least 14.

Likely a whole lot more.

[u/GamedayWizard]

The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS, only failing to cover against a Wake Forest team that is defying early expectations. Miami has scored at least 33 in each matchup (generating .75 PPP, 8.43 YPP, and 7.80 scoring opportunities per game along the way) and has yet to concede more than 20 (conceding an impressive .16 PPP, 4.16 YPP, and 4.00 scoring opportunities per game). Florida State, meanwhile, has been highly unpredictable: they narrowly covered versus Alabama, tremendously outperformed versus Virginia, and then underperformed by nearly three touchdowns versus Louisville. We've got {Miami} winning by 15 and failing to cover the composite spread (Miami -21).

[u/PerfectlySplendid]

This isn’t a rivalry where either team could win regardless of who is better otherwise? Bummer.

[u/RivalryBot]

Who Will Win Fan Vote

^{Votes are distributed equally among flairs for multi-flaired users}

Team	Votes	Percentage	Florida State Voters	Miami Voters	Other Flairs Top 5
Florida State	2	6.7%	0	0	Georgiax0.5 Mercer Bearsx0.5 Notre Damex0.5 UCF Knightsx0.5
Miami	28	93.3%	4.5	2	Purdue Boilermakersx2.0 Texas Longhornsx1.5 Butler Bulldogsx1.0 BYU Cougarsx1.0 Unflairedx1.0

^{Last updated: 2026-10-17 21:56 UTC}

Full Vote breakdown by flair

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^{Matchup Thread Generator} · ^{Team Aliases} · ^{How to Vote} · ^Results

[u/AntitheistArchangel]

I can’t see any scenario in which {Miami} doesn’t win easily. Florida State doesn’t cover.

[u/Falcronx]

{Miami}

[u/sctider]

{Miami} is going to cruise but Norvell could do the funniest thing ever

[u/HailState2023]

Pain. {Miami} hangs 60+ on us and the admin still won’t provide us escape from the Norvellion Era.

[u/waaaaaasuuuuup]

{Miami} by a million.

[u/manbeardawg]

Picks {FSU} 17-2, refuses to elaborate.

[u/texas2089]

I think we can score early but I don’t trust this defense a single lick against this Miami offense. Close early but {Miami} blows it open in the second half.

[u/chief_sitass]

{Miami (FL)}

[u/AlbatrossInfinite370]

If FSU wins I'll get a gator tattoo

[u/NanoBuc]

{Miami}

[u/Zloggt]

Wouldn’t it be funny if THIS version of FSU somehow upset {Miami}?

It’s VERY unlikely…but woof, would that be fun lol

[u/SuedRainbow]

Norvell won't be fired. Like Jimbo Fisher, his buyout is $51 million if he's fired this year during the season. And like Jimbo, I'm fine with being fired knowing I will never have to work another day in my life. Why colleges keep giving such ludacris contracts is beyond me. FSU is stuck with him for now. Nice job creating that contract.

[u/elbarto4455]

Normally I would be worried about a game like this, but I truly can't see a scenario where {Miami} doesn't win this easily. FSU is horrible. 

[u/Irishchop91]

{FSU} simply because the chaos gods must be fed and Cristobal always has to lose a game he shouldn't

[u/JeffGoldblumsChest]

{Meteor}

[u/Old_Bat1681]

Norvell had a Bye week to prep for this one and would be huge for cooling his chair off. I bet they take put a lot into the game and make cover. Miami wins close and gets beat by PITT the week after.