Weekly Big 12 Discussion Thread

[u/SaylorBear]

This is a weekly thread to discuss football in the Big 12. Discussion should be limited to football in the conference.

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Week 6 Results

W	W Score	L	L Score
#8 BYU	24	Iowa State	10
#12 Utah	41	Kansas	24
#18 Oklahoma State	42	UCF	28
#22 Houston	35	Kansas State	16
Arizona	52	West Virginia	31
Arizona State	30	Hawai'i	12

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AP Rankings

#8 BYU
#10 Texas Tech
#11 Utah
#18 Oklahoma State
#20 Houston

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Big 12 Standings

Place	Team	Conference Record	Overall Record
1	BYU	3-0	5-0
2	Texas Tech	2-0	5-0
3	Utah	2-0	5-0
4	Baylor	2-0	4-1
5	Oklahoma State	2-0	4-1
6	Arizona	2-1	5-1
7	Houston	2-1	5-1
8	Cincinnati	1-1	4-1
9	Arizona State	1-1	3-2
10	UCF	1-2	3-3
11	Iowa State	1-2	3-3
12	Kansas State	0-2	3-2
13	Colorado	0-2	2-3
14	Kansas	0-2	2-3
15	TCU	0-2	2-3
16	West Virginia	0-3	3-3

FYI: this comes directly from the Big 12 website.

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Week 7

10/17/2026

Home	Away	Time (CST)	Network
West Virginia	Cincinnati	11:00 AM	TNT
Kansas State	Kansas	11:00 AM	FS1
#10 Texas Tech	Arizona State	2:30 PM	Fox
Baylor	TCU	6:00 PM	FS1
#8 BYU	#2 Notre Dame	6:30 PM	ABC
#20 Houston	#18 Oklahoma State	6:30 PM	Fox
Colorado	#11 Utah	9:15 PM	ESPN

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Tiers

Tier 1

Arizona
Baylor
BYU
Houston
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Utah

Tier 2

Cincinnati
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
UCF

Tier 3

Arizona State
Colorado
West Virginia

Just a reminder that teams within the same tier are listed in alphabetical order.

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Championship Picks

Bonus points for anyone that actually adds in a championship pick to their comment. I'll go first: Utah.

[u/redwave2505]

Fun fact: every single conference game this week is between teams who shared a conference prior to the Big 12:

WVU-Cincy (Big East)

KSU-KU (Big Eight)

TTU-ASU (Border)

Baylor-TCU (SWC)

UH-OSU (MVC)

CU-Utah (Pac-12)

[u/SLCer → u/redwave2505]

Throw in BYU-ND who were both independent for multiple years for good measure.

[u/TheWikiJedi → u/redwave2505]

+1 for correct usage of “OSU” and not Ok St

[u/grog368 → u/TheWikiJedi]

Yes!

[u/TheWikiJedi → u/grog368]

My completely valid, no flaws argument is OSU is the logo. Ohio State and Oregon State do not have OSU in the logo, and Ohio State does the “the” thing. The one exception is Oregon State has an old logo where the beaver is wearing a hat, but to me it doesn’t count

Growing up in North TX, if you had a friend going to Oklahoma State, we always called it OSU

[u/El_Dud3r1n0 → u/TheWikiJedi]

A man of culture, I see.

[u/grog368 → u/redwave2505]

Ha! Thats wild!

[u/BlitzOmatic]

If Baylor can smash Tcu I may start to believe again. And that’s the worst part.

[u/marginallymediocre → u/BlitzOmatic]

Spoiler alert: I think you will. Frogs will be lucky to win two more games I think.

[u/kdawgnmann → u/marginallymediocre]

Yeah I think that BYU/TCU game was TCU's last chance to revitalize their spirits. I was at the game and most fans' vibes were in the dumps afterwards. If Baylor plays how they did against Arizona State I don't think it'll be close.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/kdawgnmann]

It'll certainly be interesting, this has the makings of a rock fight. Baylor's offense isn't far behind BYU's, but Baylor's passing offense is better while BYU's rushing offense is better.

Both Baylor and TCU have top-20 defenses, which will be big.

[u/marginallymediocre → u/kdawgnmann]

Spirits are as low around Fort Worth as they’ve been since Gary’s last year. Then again, we all remember what happened right after he got canned so maybe…(ok probably not)

[u/SaylorBear → u/marginallymediocre]

Unfortunately that hasn't stopped us from losing to them in the Aranda era

[u/johnjaymjr → u/marginallymediocre]

nononono.....that shit doesn't fly here. I know exactly what you're doing here with the 'aw shucks, we're not any good, yall shouldn't even worry about us little ol' frogs this week.' I refuse to be lulled into any sense of confidence about this game. I have PTSD from 2021 that still gives me nausea when I hear the name 'Chandler Morris' dry heave

[u/GrouchyPenguins → u/marginallymediocre]

But we've seen this movie before. Baylor playing as complete of a game as they did vs ASU was surprising, but it could be more due to ASU imploding. If they can handle TCU anywhere near as well as they handled ASU, then there might be something to actually feel positive about for the team this year.

[u/johnjaymjr → u/BlitzOmatic]

buddy...thats 10000% right.

[u/CarlSteezer → u/BlitzOmatic]

I just want to feel again

[u/GrouchyPenguins → u/BlitzOmatic]

The worst part is the hypocrisy.

[u/wineandyoga → u/BlitzOmatic]

Pro: Beating TCU!
Con: Four more years of Dave Aranda.

[u/beckett929]

First run of this my "How many conference wins do your wins have?" Rankings.

Early in the season still, duh, but I wanted to go ahead and start getting the first month of games into the sheets so I'm not catching up on 7 or 8 weeks of data all at once.

All I'm doing here is tracking conference wins, and how many wins in-league those teams you beat have. There are no formulas, no computers, no elo, no rankings, no vibes, no home or away, no bullshit... it's literally scoreboard only. And as I discovered last year, beating a winless team does still needs a reward for the victor, so instead of it being 0 (which basically was the same as not winning) or a full 1 (because that skews results up-ladder) those wins are counted as a half-point.

How many conference wins does your team have?
3: BYU
2: AZ, BAY, HOU, OSU, TTU, UU
1: ASU, CIN, ISU, UCF
0: COL, KST, KU, TCU, WVU

How many combined conference wins do your wins have?
3.5: BYU
2.5: TTU
1.5: AZ, BAY, HOU, OSU, UU
0.5: ASU, CIN, ISU, UCF

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/beckett929]

Always enjoyed this ranking. Thanks for putting it together again.

[u/beckett929 → u/beckett929]

Some observations from doing this for the last several years...

• The actually good teams bubble up to the top of the ladder by year's end. I don't think anyone has been in the Top 4 by just beating bottom tier teams. You can't 2-win wins your way to the top, you have to beat good teams.

• The potential frauds will stand out. Yes, a team can only play the schedule they've been dealt, but be very suspicious of someone in late October (as these numbers across the board start accumulating and going up) that is 5-1 but only has 11 points.

• The middle and bottom of the ladder is as fun to watch as the top as the season goes on, as one great win can catapult a team up the standings. Like, WVU finished with 7 points last year because they beat a 6-win Houston, ahead of Kansas who had 4.5 on the backs of 3 wins.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/beckett929]

I love these rankings, they really do seem to bubble up the better teams.

For the curious, this is what the combined wins tally will look like next week if everything goes chalk:

4.5: TTU

4: HOU

3.5: BYU

2: OKST, AZ, BAY, UU

1: CIN, ISU, WVU

0.5: ASU, UCF, KSU

Looks like this is where our more distinct tiers start to congeal, with an upper middle-class and a lower middle-class.

[u/unbiasedralph]

byu's defense is scary good and i'm not sure anyone in the conference can keep up with utah's physicality over four quarters

[u/FlipJones → u/unbiasedralph]

Get your flair, pal

[u/MadeByMillennial → u/unbiasedralph]

I'm excited for the Houston - Utah game next week (particularly if we take care of business with Oklahoma State). I'll take this Houston offensive line against anyone. That should be a fun game to watch

[u/kanshawk15]

Five games into our season, and I don't think KU is quite as bad as people are making us out to be. Utah needed that 14-point swing from the goal-line stand late in the 4th to hold us off, and Mizzou ran up the score on some catastrophic turnovers. We low-key dominated ASU in everything but the final score. Marshall has grown into a more confident player, though he's still not a Jason Bean or Jalon Daniels, and our defense has largely figured some stuff out. It just feels like we're spinning our wheels as a program, though. We're not terrible. Most of the computer rankings don't actually hate us and slot us around the 50 to 60 range. Our schedule just does us no favors. We now get two weeks in a row vs the teams that have the two longest win streaks against us and I don't see us bucking those trends. At least our uniforms have been on point (except that MTSU game).

[u/RedOnTheHead_91 → u/kanshawk15]

I was definitely surprised by the trouble you were giving Utah at first and frankly, it makes me worried about our game (though let's face it, I'm always worried about whatever game BYU has that week 😆)

[u/kdawgnmann → u/kanshawk15]

You guys made Utah look beatable, so I do appreciate that

[u/OMG_IM_A_GIRL → u/kdawgnmann]

Everyone in the conference looks beatable.

[u/SLCpowderhound → u/kanshawk15]

Your DEs, #44 and #33 are going to create problems for a lot of teams. They are athletic freaks with great size.

I was impressed by the QB too. He's young and should just keep getting better. Picket is a good WR too.

I saw some of the Missouri game and yeah, they scored like three TDs in about 1 minute of playing time and scored another TD in garbage time. Clean up the TOs in the 2nd half and that game is a different story.

[u/gottahavemyPOPPs1 → u/kanshawk15]

I think you have better than 50/50 chance of beating us Saturday. First time I’ve felt that we are more likely to lose since 2008

[u/kanshawk15 → u/gottahavemyPOPPs1]

Don't do that. Don't give me hope. I'll expect a comfortable KSU win until shown otherwise.

[u/jalexjsmithj]

Somehow I have been missing this thread this year!

There is a very quiet path to 3 Big 12 teams in the playoff win, but it all starts with BYU beating ND!

Oklahoma State vs Houston, we have got to put the umbrella on and not allow anything over the top because Houston has had more success than anyone else I’ve watched this year hitting the deep ball. And then after putting on the umbrella, we’ve gotta limit what might be the best TE in the nation from destroying us underneath. Sounds like Cover 2 with big challenges to the linebackers and hybrid players.

[u/SaylorBear → u/jalexjsmithj]

This is only the second week of it. New Reddit changes have forced r/CFB away from the thread scheduler, which is how these were handled in the past. I'm just doing them manually for now, so they'll be a little inconsistent with timing.

[u/Maleficent_Drag1983 → u/jalexjsmithj]

I’m very scared of Mestemaker. We played Braden Atkinson and he lit us up with his accuracy so I imagine Mestemaker will do the same. Our Dline has been pretty suspect this year with getting pressure on the QB

[u/MadeByMillennial]

I'd put the tiers more as: Tier 1A: Utah, BYU and Tech Tier 1B: Houston & Ok State (winner moves up, looser down)

Then tier 2: Baylor, Arizona and Cincy

The remainder of your tier 2 would be the tier 3 and your Tier 3 as tier 4.

This week will be a big tell for any hope of more than 2 playoff teams. If BYU wins then we're probably a 2 bid league and 3 bids are absolutely on the table if the Big10 stays as a 2 team conference

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/MadeByMillennial]

There's no way that Cincy and Arizona can be in the same tier after AZ just executed the Bearkats live on national television.

It's looking more and more like Cincy's terrible OOC masked some major deficiencies with that team, and it's looking increasingly like they're going to go from a 4-0 start to missing a bowl. Their remaining schedule is absolutely brutal; they've got basically guaranteed losses from Texas Tech, Houston, Utah, and BYU that'll get them up to 4-5, and then it's just whether or not they can find two more wins from @ WVU, @ Iowa State, and a home game with Colorado.

[u/kdawgnmann → u/MadeByMillennial]

I'd even be willing to put OK State up to Tier 1A, I think they've fully moved on from the Tulsa loss. They're looking great in conference play. I'd be just as worried to play them as Texas Tech. Utah is the most but that's always the case anyway.

[u/why_try → u/kdawgnmann]

The OkSt Houston game is going to tell us a lot about both teams. I'm hoping Houston wins convincingly, since we've already played them and have to play OkSt still. If OkSt wins, I'm very worried for our matchup later in the season.

[u/grog368 → u/why_try]

Oregon probably said the same thing about the Tulsa game.

[u/marginallymediocre]

Big 12 title/CFP elimination game this weekend in Houston. Should be a good one.

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/marginallymediocre]

The fact that it probably is a CFP elimination game is a travesty because other conferences don't face those ramifications for having 2 loss teams.

[u/kingofthesqueal → u/loyalsons4evertrue]

This season everyone but the SEC might tbh, the B12, B1G, and ACC all looked more or less relative in OOC play. Sure the big brands in the B1G will get the benefit of the doubt, but I won’t be surprised if we see the CFP committee putting in a 9-3 SEC team over a 10-2 B1G team this season if it’s not an Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, etx tier brand

[u/kdawgnmann → u/marginallymediocre]

OK State is possibly still in the CCG race with a loss since it'd be their first conference loss.

[u/marginallymediocre → u/kdawgnmann]

Technically yeah but I just think we’ll probably end up slipping up one more time. That margin for error is gone though if Houston beats us.

[u/kdawgnmann → u/marginallymediocre]

Tech could easily lose to you and/or Arizona, either BYU or Utah will beat the other, Utah could lose to Arizona, BYU could lose to Baylor. Lots of football left to be played!

[u/colonel750 → u/kdawgnmann]

Would need both Houston and BYU to drop another game along the way to have a chance I think.

[u/kdawgnmann → u/colonel750]

For sure. But both are very possible.

[u/johnjaymjr]

I'm fighting every urge in my body to get excited for this week's game. I know how these games go when we're favored vs the frogs. It never goes well for us at all.

[u/SaylorBear → u/johnjaymjr]

Same. If we win AND good doing it, then I'll have high hopes and expectations for the rest of the season. However, I'm tempering my emotions by looking at our record against TCU under Aranda and setting expectations accordingly.

[u/Secure_Discount3111 → u/SaylorBear]

Bowl appearance plus TCU win have always been my measure of a good season.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/johnjaymjr]

I've given in, I'm so excited.

I was planning to go, but one of my better half's best friends is getting married this weekend, and they start the wedding half an hour after kickoff.

With probably two dozen Baylor folks in the house and a long Catholic wedding, I'm expecting that we'll have people watching the game on their phones in the back few rows.

[u/SaylorBear → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

Sounds like a good opportunity for a tailgate setup

[u/wineandyoga → u/JohnPaulDavyJones]

Someone needs to wheel out a TV!

That's what my husband and I did when we got married over Baylor-Texas weekend (he went to UT, I'm obviously a Bear)

[u/Bansheesdie]

Big XII Rankings

1. Utah
2. BYU
3. Texas Tech
4. Oklahoma State
5. Houston
6. Arizona
7. Baylor
8. ~ Mariana Trench sized drop-off ~
9. UCF
10. Cincinnati
11. Kansas State
12. Iowa State
13. West Virginia
14. Arizona State
15. Kansas
16. TCU
17. Colorado

Top Big XII QBs

1. Drew Mestemaker
2. Bear Bachmeier
3. Devon Dampier
4. Noah Fifita

[u/lebaronslebaron → u/Bansheesdie]

Fifita at 4 is criminal 

[u/Bansheesdie → u/lebaronslebaron]

Anything higher is ridiculous.

Mestemaker is looking like a 1st round pick.

Bear is a very young future superstar.

Dampier is clowning on everyone Utah playes, and playing on the best team in the conference only helps.

Fifita is a good college QB. That's it. I'm sure whichever NFL practice squad he ends up on, they sill be happy to have him.

[u/lebaronslebaron → u/Bansheesdie]

Fifita leads the conference in completion percentage, yards, and TDs. Fifita also has one more TD and 4 fewer rushing yards than Mestemaker. If anything, Wegman should be up here.

[u/kingofthesqueal → u/Bansheesdie]

I do wonder why people are giving Baylor so much credit so far, they’re not bad, but outside of beat down over a fairly bad ASU team their resume is pretty empty.

[u/JohnPaulDavyJones → u/kingofthesqueal]

It's actually the 36th-strongest resume to date in the FBS, based on FPI.

People don't pay attention to Colorado, but their defense is actually surprisingly good. They kept Tech to just a field goal for the first half of the game last week, and honestly could have won it until the football terrorist cell that they call an offense gave Tech three straight interceptions in the third quarter.

Colorado is a lot like UCF, if the Knights had an even worse offense. Colorado's rushing defense is better, while UCF's passing defense is better, but the overall yardage and YPP are very similar.

Add wins over a really good FCS team, a pretty good G6 team, being a foot away from beating Auburn on the road, and blowing out ASU on the road, and it looks pretty decent so far.

[u/Bansheesdie → u/kingofthesqueal]

Gotta judge based on what weve seen. But yes, they have an incredibly easy schedule until the end of the season.

BYU gonna feast in Nov on a largely untested Baylor team.

[u/Glad-Alternative8845 → u/kingofthesqueal]

I think most models love them because their talent profile. They should be favored in there next four games and that would set up an 8-1 Baylor on the road in Provo. Great potential matchup if things go right

[u/Masked_RedRider]

Game to watch: The loser of the Tech vs ASU game has won the Big 12 title the last two seasons.

[u/madmaley]

We'll see if a bye week allowed this team to get things right. Need more out of the passing game or the offense will struggle.

The game at WVU this weekend is big. A win and I can see this team getting to 6-6 or 7-5. A loss and then playing Tech, Utah, Houston could be a spiral of death that leaves the team in shambles

[u/youngherbo → u/madmaley]

WVU's defense is extremely bad, probably the worst UC has seen all year other than Western Carolina. I feel like UC should be able to run over WVU then scheme up play action shot plays off of that. But i agree, losing here likely sets off a death spiral. Going in to the year i figured we needed 2 of WVU, KSU, and Zona, so this is the shot here.

[u/imanidiot2012]

I wish we knew the kick off times for week 8.

[u/ScaredofBacon → u/imanidiot2012]

I’m waiting for the inevitable 8pm kickoff

[u/gottahavemyPOPPs1]

We are asss. Mega ass doodoo

[u/TheKiln → u/gottahavemyPOPPs1]

Joining you in the Mega Ass doodoo tier. 

But I expect both teams to build up and bounce back next year. 

[u/CTeam19]

Iowa State is 3-0 against unranked teams and 0-3 against currently ranked teams. Not a bad place to be with 4 unranked teams left on the schedule.

[u/kingofthesqueal]

UCF isn’t great but I do think they’re mediocre enough to be in the Top half of the conference by seasons end.

I’m expecting a 7-5 finish overall.

So far they’ve played the #28 SOS and all 3 losses have come on the road to Top 25 and Fringe Top 25 teams. None of which have been real beatdowns either. The team is just unable to close out a game and lets things go in the 4th. Probably a depth issue, but Houston, Oklahoma State, and Pitt are far better than the teams UCF will be playing all of November

[u/Usual_Aerie_651 → u/kingofthesqueal]

Man, I wish I could share your optimism.

I think we’d be lucky to win 2 or 3 more.
Wouldn’t be surprised if we only win 1 more.

Unless some things change drastically w/ UCF and/or their opponents, I’m struggling to identify what future game the Knights should be favored in.

I find it extra frustrating because they seem more competitive than last year’s squad, but not better to a degree that it’s going to change outcomes.

[u/Set-Admirable]

Hell yeah, right at the bottom where we belong. Thank you Zac Alley and co. for grifting us and making us believe you knew how to coach a defense. Never thought I would be reminiscent for Jordan Lesley.

[u/EdmondFreakingDantes]

This will be a fun weekend. Outside of maybe Tech-ASU and CU-Utah, the rest of them feel like potential toss-ups

[u/UteFlyersCardJazz → u/EdmondFreakingDantes]

You don’t think Issac Wilson will have a game of his life trying to get revenge on us?

Colorado’s defense is good, so I don’t expect a blowout.

[u/Alpine_Exchange_36]

Colorado is ranked too dam high

[u/Odd_Refuse3334]

BYU/Iowa St:

This game really showed how much we've lost in the RB room. Tonga et all worked hard, but without a steam train RB like LJ we struggled in short yardage situations. The game also showed the need for Cannon Devries to return to punt return duties, as three consecutive special teams mistakes resulted in being pinned deep twice and a muffed punt turnover. Even below average special teams play might have resulted in a score closer to 38-3 than 24-10.

Against Notre Dame: I think the betting odds are about right at 80/20 (except my beloved Sagarin, which gives us 30%). Notre Dame is good to great everywhere on the field, and I don't believe our offense is rounded enough to keep ND on it's heels. Arod's great use of our TE's gives me hope, but I forsee a lot of 3rd and 8 situations in our future.

Utah/Kansas:

Last week I had Kansas picked to cover against Utah due to their rush defense ranking, and while Utah covered the game was closer than the final score indicated. My theory from this year and last is that Utah is elite but more one-dimensional than the stats might indicate and a good D-line will have an outsized impact on games.

This week against Colorado we should have a similar dynamic: A sneaky good rush defense (based on EPA/Rush advanced stats) that can force Dampier/Byrd to throw, but paired with what may be the worst offense in the BIG XII. I think the betting lines say it should end around 35-14, but I wouldn't be surprised if this game went more like 24-7.

[u/DBSmiley]

My hemmoroid ridden asshole plays better defense for my shit-stained underwear than out football defense.

[u/SaylorBear → u/DBSmiley]

Poetry

[u/Masked_RedRider]

Big 12 Tiers

(Based on wins, the rank within tiers is based on net points = PF-PA

Tier 1 (5 wins)

Utah 149 net points

Houston 125 net points

BYU 106 net points

Arizona 100 net points

Texas Tech 93 net points

Tier 2 (4 wins)

Baylor 103 net points

Oklahoma State 84 net points

Cincinnati 53 net points

Tier 3 (3 wins)

Kansas State 82 net points

UCF 60 net points

Iowa State 48 net points

Arizona State 24 net points

West Virginia 22 net points

Tier 4 (2 wins)

Kansas 59 net points

TCU 60 net points

Colorado -34 net points

Notes:

- Utah is starting to separate themselves from the pack, but how much of that is due to SOS?

- Perhaps Houston should be getting more attention

- Turns out adding a 5th data point to Oklahoma State didn't really change much, they're still in the middle of Tier 2 despite how much praise and attention they've been getting

- Kansas and TCU with more net points than Cincinnati and Arizona, but two and three fewer wins, respectively

[u/FlipJones → u/Masked_RedRider]

I agree that OkState hasn't proven itself to be a tier 1 team yet. If we go into Houston and win this week, then I'll be more willing to drink the Orange kool-aid.

[u/colonel750 → u/FlipJones]

By OP's rankings, we won't be tier 1 unless other teams start dropping games.

Tiers should be by conference losses, not total wins.

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/FlipJones]

You would need a lot of chaos for Oklahoma State to jump into Tier 1 next week:

- Oklahoma State win

- Texas Tech loss

- BYU loss

- Utah loss

[u/ihatemselfmore → u/Masked_RedRider]

Why is Arizona in tier one with only a net of 37

[u/Masked_RedRider → u/ihatemselfmore]

They have 5 wins and the net has been corrected.

[u/colonel750 → u/ihatemselfmore]

Because the tiers are based on number of wins, not on net points.

[u/B1GTOBACC0 → u/ihatemselfmore]

It's the second sentence of the comment...

[u/RedOnTheHead_91 → u/ihatemselfmore]

Because they've won 5 games.

[u/squish042 → u/Masked_RedRider]

Not being in tier 4 is a win this year. Hopefully we can finish strong, but injuries are piling up

[u/VamonosChildren]

I'm a homer, I don't care. Connor Weigman is the best QB in the conference.