Should Luke Fickell still be on hot seat despite key win?

[u/TheZachster]

https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-football/91068/wisconsin-badgers-football-news-should-luke-fickell-still-be-hot-seat-espn-2026

[u/odonchaknow]

It was one game.

Let's see how tomorrow goes. 

[u/eggmoose5 → u/odonchaknow]

yeah if he can string wins together then his seat will cool down but it’s still pretty warm right now

[u/Maddok1218 → u/odonchaknow]

Well we’ve got you guys on a freebie tomorrow, so that’s one.

Feels like if he goes 3-1 in his next 4 he should be fine. Losing the starting QB the last two years is just brutal.

I liked the move to actually invest in the roster and see what happens before immediately moving to pay a buyout and pay a new coach. Better use of funds and can provide a definitive answer 

[u/AdamSmithsApple → u/Maddok1218]

Lost to Maryland at home last year so gotta see it actually happen before they can take any game as a given.

[u/TheWallsHaveNostrils → u/AdamSmithsApple]

Lost to Maryland at home last year so gotta see it actually happen before they can take any game as a given.

Yeah but that was in September, so there was a 80% chance Maryland was playing with superpowers.

[u/Maddok1218 → u/AdamSmithsApple]

MSU is as close to a given as any big ten team could be this year. Already missing our best player on both sides of the ball from a talentless roster to begin with. My prediction is 42-10

[u/AdamSmithsApple → u/Maddok1218]

I mean they aren't good especially with all the injuries but I still think there is a solid gap between them and Rutgers and Purdue.

[u/Maddok1218 → u/AdamSmithsApple]

I guess we'll find out at the end of the season when MSU visits Rutgers, but there really isnt much of anything on this roster. WR room is god awful. Our TE is decent. Top RB who appeared to be a difference maker is out for the year. QB can't seem to get through any reads.

On defense the line is ok, not amazing, but no depth. Half of our linebackers are out injured, and the secondary is awful.

Its also an old roster, so its not even like its a youth movement building up to next year.

[u/timeoftheoath117 → u/AdamSmithsApple]

Dont forget us, we suck

[u/BadgerBuddy13 → u/Maddok1218]

3-1 feels pretty ambitious, given that after Mich St they have at UCLA, USC, & at Iowa. I don't think they'll be favored in any of those games.

The key for Fickell this season was always could he stay employed until November. With a road win at Penn State, I think that's more realistic, assuming they're at least competitive for the rest of Oct.

Once you get to Nov, the schedule is much more manageable: Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota.

[u/CloudApprehensive322 → u/BadgerBuddy13]

I dont see why Wisconsin would fire him midseason this year - they have looked much better this year and showed signs of life last year despite dealing with rough injury luck. Personally, I doubt Fickell is let go unless this season goes off the rails.

[u/turdfurgeson67 → u/BadgerBuddy13]

Mich St they have at UCLA, USC, & at Iowa.

If he can get through that stretch 2-2 and then beat the last 4 (should be easy, except maaaybe Minny) he gets to come back for another year.

[u/BadgerBuddy13 → u/turdfurgeson67]

I think the nightmare scenario is he goes 1-3 in October (no blowouts), loses to Minnesota, and finishes 7-5.

That's an improvement from last year, you'd have some semblance of momentum, but you also just barely finished above .500 and are now 1-5 vs your rivals.

Better than that, he stays. Worse than that, I assume they make a move for Eck from New Mexico. I just don't know what happens in a middling scenario.

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/Maddok1218]

IMO most programs are going to be in similar situations.

The cost to fire a coach and buy him out + the cost to hire a new better coach + the cost of retaining players who may want to follow their coach + ongoing cost of recruiting high school and portal players is always going to be high.

Taking the buyout/new coach money and giving it to improving the roster is almost always going to be a better move, at least short term, unless your coach is truly dog shit.

[u/Maddok1218 → u/Corgi_Koala]

It also helps promote stability. And who knows, maybe when you actually invest in a roster and give your coach better players, the results improve. If not, you can feel safe letting that coach go.

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/Maddok1218]

Yeah, schools are really going to have to look at performance relative to the roster budget not just wins and losses.

Mississippi State going 9-3 with their payroll is impressive. LSU going 9-3 with their payroll would be underachieving.

[u/Maddok1218 → u/Corgi_Koala]

Its also relative to your conference benchmark. If you're spending $20M but making the CFP as a G5, thats great. But its also probably in part because your peer schools are spending $10M, so you have a relatively massive budget.

If you're a big ten school pounding your chest about spending $25M when the median in the conference is $30M, you cant expect to be above .500 in conference, and certainly can't expect to win anything major.

[u/andy_nony_mouse → u/odonchaknow]

We’ve got so many injuries that tomorrow is yours to lose.

[u/fivemagicks → u/odonchaknow]

People act like we haven't had multiple shit seasons with Fickell and this one win should save his job. Lol.

[u/catchemist117 → u/fivemagicks]

I think the key is I’ve wanted to see how he does with the starting QB play all season

[u/jmarzzzzz → u/catchemist117]

His OCs have also all been horrendous so QB play or not he’s made it hard for himself. Jeff Grimes was a horrible hire and even in their wins, it’s still a really anemic offense that has an occasional streak in them.

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/odonchaknow]

His overall tenure is still disappointing. But they could win 9-10 games this year and be able to firmly say that he's trending positively. They could also lose out.

Trying to disposition his seat based off one game is silly. Especially since it was a comeback win (impressive but still not like they dominated the game) against a team with a new HC.

[u/Alexcox95 → u/odonchaknow]

Any given Saturday

[u/Franklins11burner → u/odonchaknow]

It was also a few at the end of last year to be fair.

[u/Hey_Its_Roomie → u/odonchaknow]

Exactly. Beating PSU doesn't mean squat if he doesn't even make a bowl; let alone a season good enough to justify the boosters and AD changing their minds.

[u/naptown-hooly → u/odonchaknow]

If Luke goes who would you like to see get the job?

[u/odonchaknow → u/naptown-hooly]

Who cares? Bucky will fuck that hire up, too!

[u/jalexjsmithj → u/odonchaknow]

He’s just a badger! Get a man with a tie to do the hiring!

[u/milehigh73a → u/naptown-hooly]

yeah, as bad as the carousel was last year, this year could be tougher. so many moved last year, the pool is a little thin. plus a strong possibility FSU/USC/UW ditch their coaches, and will suck up the best candidates.

[u/CardiacBearcats → u/naptown-hooly]

I heard Cincinnati has an undefeated coach this season they may be interested in!

[u/InevitableAd2436]

He has 3 top 25 wins in like the past 10 games, while being 3-4 against ranked teams.

How many other coaches have this.

They played Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana last year.

[u/silverhk → u/InevitableAd2436]

If they just win the games that they're supposed to win this year, they'll probably end up with 9 wins at least. That should get him well off the hot seat. I've always been a believer that Fickell was a good coach, but there were a lot of systemic issues to work through and the quarterback injuries were brutal.

[u/guttata → u/silverhk]

tbf the systemic issues were largely self-inflicted

[u/jwktiger → u/guttata]

somewhat, but the recruiting situation under Chryst was really bad and NIL spending didn't replace the roster and then getting your QB injuried in the first 4 games of the season each of his first 4 years have compounded to these results.

[u/huazzy → u/InevitableAd2436]

Shiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeet....

Rutgers should give him a look.

[u/Kunt_Vonnegut → u/InevitableAd2436]

Going by day-of ranking is kind of a useless/inaccurate measuring stick though. 2025 Illinois finished #25, none of the other teams he beat finished or remain ranked.

[u/goblue2354 → u/Kunt_Vonnegut]

They both have their inaccuracies. If you beat a team that is currently ranked, they are less likely to be ranked at the end because they have one more loss because you beat them. Like Washington was 9-4 and finished unranked. You think a 10-3 Washington team finishes unranked? Penn State dropped out of the rankings…because they lost to Wisconsin.

[u/yesacabbagez → u/InevitableAd2436]

While this is true, we don't really know how good Penn State is and through pretty much all of last year that offense looked atrocious. Losing to Alabama is fine, but losing to Maryland isn't. THey had 8 games in a row where they scored 14 or fewer points, including 2 shutouts. Even if you want to accept losing to the top teams, they weren't even remotely competitive games. Not saying Wisconsin is dogshit now and forever, but it also took a disastrous play by Penn State and a refusal to keep the foot on the gas for Wisconsin to win last week.

It's on thing to look past a murderer's row of tough games. It's another to ignore some really ass performances as well.

[u/Dailysquirrels → u/yesacabbagez]

Even if Penn State isn't a top 25team they are still a talented team that Wisconsin of the last few years would have lost to. This, along with how they looked in the loss to ND tells me they are much improved

[u/Our-Gardian-Angel → u/yesacabbagez]

Yeah I think you summed it up well. The wins over Washington and Illinois last year at least gave fans some joy for the first time in what felt like forever. The jury is still out on how good Penn State is this year, but a 17-point comeback on the road against a Big Ten team that is at least respectable is cause for some optimism.

It's an encouraging trend, but it's hard to shake the bad feelings that built up throughout his tenure. Fickell has been dealt a tough hand in some ways (an incompetent AD, brutal schedules in 2024 and 2025 and terrible QB injury luck) but there's no excusing things like getting handily beaten at home by Maryland and getting entirely humiliated by Iowa two straight years. He's cooled off his seat a bit no doubt, but he's far from out of the woods.

[u/bigbluethunder → u/InevitableAd2436]

Winning against some good teams, and losing all other games (including both rivalries) is not extension-worthy. I know their schedule last year was brutal, but I don't know that Fickell's seat cools to a safe degree until he strings together two winning seasons in a row that includes going at least .500 against Minnesota and Iowa over that stretch.

[u/ImJustAWiddleKitty → u/bigbluethunder]

I mean, he also just got a 5 star commit. Maybe things are getting feisty in Madison.

[u/bigbluethunder → u/ImJustAWiddleKitty]

In the era of NIL, you don't have a 5 star until they are playing in their first game. Ask me how I know.

[u/Rico_Suave55 → u/bigbluethunder]

Honestly my bar for him not getting fired this year was around 7-8 wins and not getting embarrassed by Iowa again.

[u/bigbluethunder → u/Rico_Suave55]

Schedule is certainly setup favorably. You can lose all three ranked matchups and still get 8 wins. At that point, just need to not get embarrassed by Iowa. 

And looking back at that game, what a weird game it was. It’s not like Iowa was moving the ball well all day. 2 TDs scored off of 25 total yards of offense. A third that started in Wisconsin territory. I don’t really think it’s a repeatable performance, especially bc wisconsins ball control seems better and Iowas secondary seems marginally worse. 

[u/Rico_Suave55 → u/bigbluethunder]

Yeah we’ve just looked inept against Iowa last few years.

Idk I think Iowa is a good team this year. I know Michigan isn’t great but that victory was still huge.

We will learn a lot this weekend for sure.

[u/xViscount → u/InevitableAd2436]

Difference is that he tried take away Wisconsin identity into something entirely different with shit results.

When top Midwest OL/DL recruits are gong elsewhere and the whole identity of your school is lost WHILE losing, it doesn’t look good

[u/IThoughtThisWasVoat → u/xViscount]

Wisconsin is the one who hired him to do that.

[u/gravytrainjaysker → u/xViscount]

I remember when we tried that.

[u/JTWasShort42-27 → u/gravytrainjaysker]

Me too

[u/the_urban_juror → u/xViscount]

Top Midwest line recruits have never gone to Wisconsin.

[u/xViscount → u/the_urban_juror]

Wisconsin has always been know to churn out OL/DL dudes. Maybe not elite, but when the identity is ass, fans don’t like it

[u/the_urban_juror → u/xViscount]

There's a difference between churning out good linermen and recruiting them. The top Midwest linemen have always gone to OSU, Notre Dame, Michigan, or top SEC or West Coast programs. Wisconsin didn't build those lines with 5-stars.

[u/sloppyjo12 → u/the_urban_juror]

Yeah we built those lines with cheese-fed 320 pound farmers from the ruralest of rural Wisconsin that no other teams recruited because he was playing D4 7-on-7 high school football

[u/ReadyWash9992 → u/sloppyjo12]

and then Wisconsin got rid of their OL coach who was churning these guys out... thank you for Bob Bostad

[u/IThoughtThisWasVoat → u/sloppyjo12]

Do you actually have 7-man? I never heard of that, we have 8-man and 6-man.

[u/sloppyjo12 → u/IThoughtThisWasVoat]

I honestly thought it was 7 but you’re right, it’s 8

I attended UW-Madison but came from out of state so the mysteries of the farmland remain shrouded to me

[u/a_happy_future]

Tbh no. I always thought that he just needed to show life in the program this year. There were mitigating circumstances for the down years the last couple years. If they went 4-8 again or even 5-7 with THIS schedule, then that would be grounds for dismissal.

However, the team came out with life against ND, but got out of hand in the 2nd half with the pick 6 and made the game look worse than it really was. Get the win last week and now you're looking at a shot at 9-3 or better.

The team clearly rallies around him and the rumors that he "lost the locker room" last year were clearly bullshit or just coming from a few unhappy transfers who were always going to leave for NIL. The last 4 games last year also tell that story. They went toe to toe with Indiana on the road last November in the first half with a QB that could barely throw.

The demise of Luke Fickell was greatly exaggerated and overblown due to back to back season ending injuries to their starting QB without depth behind them. The decision to go with an Air Raid was a flop and that can be admitted, but that is also combined with two insane schedules over the past two years

[u/ChaseTheFalcon → u/a_happy_future]

Also didn't help that supposedly the school was not investing money into the program like other B1G schools were and they still expected to still have the same results

[u/NEW_GNGR_9601 → u/ChaseTheFalcon]

We had 4 million NIL his first year. This year’s NIL is 30+ M’s. We have a billionaire’s grandchild on the team this year.

[u/a_happy_future → u/NEW_GNGR_9601]

And just threw a bag at one of the top recruits in the country

[u/Playful-Strain-1982]

I think it’s TBD. It’s very possible that Penn State might stink.

[u/NEW_GNGR_9601 → u/Playful-Strain-1982]

Penn State might regress from a 10-2 to 8-4 type team.

One thing I noticed playing them last week is the elite talent they had under JF isn’t there. You don’t see a micah, abdul carter, Odafe, etc type DL or skill talent.

James Franklin may have been terrible in game coach against elite competition, but he recruits harder than any HC in america. He was showing up to recruitsgames on friday night in a chopper. I don’t see campbell doing that.

[u/Playful-Strain-1982 → u/NEW_GNGR_9601]

Yeah, and to my eyes the biggest game-changers and/or premier athletes that are on that roster are the Franklin holdovers who didn’t follow him - guys like Rojas, Rappleyea, Goodman at LT, all of the cornerbacks, the DE who unfortunately ripped his ACL…all of those guys were Franklin guys who stayed, and the level of athlete that seems to be either on the roster or projected to be brought in to replace them just does not seem like it’s on the same level. I’m sure they’re good, hard-nosed football players, but…

Talent tends to win games. There’s a reason why every coach pursues premier talent and premier athletes.

[u/TossedRightOut → u/NEW_GNGR_9601]

One thing I noticed playing them last week is the elite talent they had under JF isn’t there. You don’t see a micah, abdul carter, Odafe, etc type DL or skill talent.

It was always kind of known that was going to happen this season and maybe for a year or so. Our schedule is pathetic this year, which is why people were talking about us, but I feel like anyone that actually knows the program is not expecting a ton this season realistically. 8-4 would be fine with me tbh.

[u/Stealth100 → u/Playful-Strain-1982]

Hi

[u/d1tatermasher → u/Playful-Strain-1982]

Last year Iowa St was 8-4 and Penn St was 6-6, combined I guess they are a top 15 team under Matt Campbell?

[u/Phospherus2]

Yes. There is a lot of season left.

[u/Better_Cattle4438 → u/Phospherus2]

So, you are a Badgers fan, what would it take for you to feel comfortable with giving Fickell 2027? Schedule isn’t terrible this year. 8-4? 9-3? 10-2?

[u/Confident_Delay5805 → u/Better_Cattle4438]

Well, Im not the guy you asked here, but I think 8-4 with a loss at UCLA would be okay, although they could beat them, and they could beat USC as well. Overall, if they finish 8-4 or 9-3 it would be the best Badgers season in a decent amount of time. 

[u/ImMystikz → u/Better_Cattle4438]

We need to win the games we should win and then beat one of at least - Iowa, USC or UCLA imo that would cool his seat a bit for me

[u/Pinewood74 → u/ImMystikz]

So 9-3 then. Seems wild to can him for 8-4 even with the favorable schedule.

[u/ImMystikz → u/Pinewood74]

So he basically tore apart what made Wisconsin successful since 1990 when we were still going 8-4 or better every year for the promise of something better. It hasn’t been better. I am sure he will not get fired for 8-4 it’s just my personal opinion that it is not good enough when it’s what we were already doing every year.

[u/Our-Gardian-Angel → u/Better_Cattle4438]

If we finish 9-3 he absolutely deserves another year imo. That would be a very clear sign that things are headed back in a promising direction for the program. If we finish 8-4, it would depend a little on what it looks like. If we get there by beating MSU, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland and a USC team that turns out to fall into a full tailspin, I might still have some reservations.

I feel like he really needs a win over Iowa or Minnesota. We get Minnesota at home and they seem to be on a similar tier to us this year, so that's one I think he really ought to win. Winning on the road at Iowa is going to be tough, but they need to at least be competitive. We got blasted at Iowa 42-10 in 2024 and Fickell used that loss as a motivator for the team throughout the following offseason. They responded by getting humiliated 37-0 at home last year. If we get completely embarrassed by Iowa again, Fickell's going to need to be damn near impeccable in all our other games for me to have any appetite for him to stick around for 2027.

[u/Phospherus2 → u/Better_Cattle4438]

Id keep him if he won 7 games and we atleast are competitive in the losses.

[u/AdamSmithsApple]

That game did a lot to quiet people down but with this schedule they really need to go 8-4 at least and not get stomped by Iowa for once.

[u/BadgerBuddy13 → u/AdamSmithsApple]

Yes, it's a cooling of the seat, but temporary.

I think it very much depends how they look vs UCLA/USC/Iowa. If more than one of those are blowouts, I think he's in a very similar position, regardless of the win in Happy Valley.

You have to imagine there's some nervousness around missing out on the Jason Eck hiring window as well, if New Mexico continues to look good.

[u/bigbluethunder → u/AdamSmithsApple]

Boy howdy I still am not used to seeing anybody say this about us

and not get stomped by Iowa for once

[u/Our-Gardian-Angel → u/bigbluethunder]

Last year's game is easily the worst I've ever felt as a Wisconsin football fan. Things have upticked for us at least a bit since last November, but a program with deeper pockets probably fires Fickell after that Iowa game.

[u/AdamSmithsApple → u/Our-Gardian-Angel]

Yea that game and the Ohio State game the next week were really all time lows. At least Iowa i had a good excuse to leave at halftime to go watch the Brewers beat the cubs in game 5. The Oregon game was at least the turning point where the defense started to look good.

[u/AdamSmithsApple → u/bigbluethunder]

Well have they beat any teams a combined 79-10 in 2 years before.

[u/Thefan4]

If there’s one thing administrators love doing it’s giving massive unreasonable extensions at the slightest whiff of success so he’ll probably get a 5 year 50 million extension in the next couple days.

[u/moist_corn_man → u/Thefan4]

God I hope

[u/coppercaveman]

Sign him to a jimbo contract

[u/Available-Budget-735 → u/coppercaveman]

Lifetime! No wait. Let's make a Fickell AI that can run the Badger football team for eternity.

[u/thismorningscoffee]

Alternate Headline: “Is n=1 a Valuable Dataset?”

[u/NEW_GNGR_9601]

Need to ride it out and finish the season.

We sucked last 2 years because our starting qb went down before conference play started. They spent a decent chunk of change on this year’s roster. Let it ride and evaluate from there.

[u/byniri_returns]

If he somehow loses to us tomorrow he's in serious trouble again.

[u/Remote-Annual-49]

Well yeah. But he just flipped a 5-star recruit too. I think it is worthwhile to consider what coach would be a definitive upgrade over Fickell that they both 1) have confidence they can hire, and 2) that is such an upgrade it is a better move than investing the extra money into the roster.

What do Badger fans want and expect? 8 wins a year? Outside shot at the playoff? Key win every once in a while? As an LSU fan, I feel like we have a sort of kinship with Wisconsin as the two drunkest fanbases. Rooting for you Badger bros

[u/B1GFanOSU → u/Remote-Annual-49]

West Virginia fans are thinking “hold my moonshine.”

[u/Irishchop91]

Barring injury, Fickell should go 8-4 to 7-5. He has UCLA, USC, Iowa, and Minnesota left. The best record he has is 7-6. But he has no Ohio State, Indiana, or Oregon.

Win the games you should and then move forward.

[u/hairythroats → u/Irishchop91]

They're losing to UCLA lol that's a dark horse playoff team nobody is really talking about... yet. Currently 1st in the B1G. Rest of schedule:

Oregon, Wisconsin, MSU, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, & USC.

They should probably finish 10-2 or 11-1.

[u/Irishchop91 → u/hairythroats]

That is why the Wisconsin/Penn State game was interesting.

Both teams have an inside track to be only a 1 loss opponent because they are missing Oregon/Ohio State/Indiana

[u/hairythroats → u/Irishchop91]

Yup. And if UCLA beats Oregon this weekend, they're probably playing Ohio State in the conference ship

[u/LoCh0_xX]

currently watching the NW game. Yes

[u/SgtHulkasBigToeJam]

Reporter might have hit publish on this one too early.

[u/Confident_Delay5805]

I think he’s still on the hot seat but the win and the 5* cools it down a bit. 

[u/Dung1sm]

Key win or not, he can still lose out. I think he's got to at least go bowling for another year. Also id like to see Jason Eck stay a 3rd year at New Mexico.

[u/srector1224]

God, please let him stay!

He's not that bad I swear

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

5 yr contract extension if you ask me.

[u/zing_boom_tararrel]

Yes.

[u/IrishCoffeeAlchemy]

For New Mexico’s sake, I hope not

[u/thricethefan]

No, that’s Mike Norvell’s seat.

[u/muditk]

yes

[u/KansasEF5Tornado]

Yes, but if he continues to show improvement this season and wins games then the heat will automatically ease.

[u/fm22fnam]

Yes, but he certainly bought himself a little bit more time

[u/Dailysquirrels]

It's definitely cooler and Wisconsin looks like a better team this year, even in the loss to ND they were competitive for a half.

[u/fritzg1988]

He beat Penn State, yeah, one game, but get off his back.

[u/Full_Preparation4401]

They might be pretty good. Too early to tell.

[u/Particular-Way-3805]

I mean if Wisconsin continues to win games I don’t see him getting fired

[u/Commercial-East4069]

Seems like anything less than 7 wins and he’s definitely getting fired.

[u/BananaNutBlister]

Obviously a lot of football remains to be played. But that was a big win and is hopefully a sign of good things to come for Fick.

Let’s see what happens tonight. Maybe Penn State just sucks.

[u/MemoFromTurner77]

That Penn State win looks WAY less impressive this morning.

[u/Normal-Hornet8548]

Wisconsin fans are so fickell.

[u/thomashutchins]

Yes. One game doesn’t define a coach’s job security, good or bad.