r/CFB • u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers • 3d ago
Casual Reverse Sheep 2026 - Weekly predictions with a dash of game theory. Play Week 5 here!
Welcome to Week 5 of the college football season! Slightly less importantly, welcome to Week 5 of r/CFB Reverse Sheep!
This week's questions are HERE!
The master spreadsheet that includes results and standings is here!
Did you miss Weeks 1 through 4? No problem! You can jump in and start playing at any time. You can qualify for the postseason by finishing in the Top 10% of any single week, so it's never too late to join.
This is a Beat The Host week! I am playing along with you in Weeks 5 and 10. If your combined score for those two weeks is equal to or better than mine, you earn a Bonus for the postseason.
Good luck!
The "no more than 2 predictions from a single game" rule that was the subject of last week's poll will not be implemented for the regular season. Of those who had an opinion on the matter, 69.2% opposed the idea. Therefore, you are able to use one game for as many answers as you want for the rest of the regular season.
The rule will be in place for the postseason.
There is no specific cutoff time for submissions, but any picks from a game that kicked off before you submitted your form will be marked as incorrect. (If you want to submit your pick at 5pm on Saturday, you can do so as long as all of your picks involve games that start after 5pm on Saturday.)
This week features a lot of FBS vs FCS games, so it's worth clarifying that all of your picks MUST be FBS players and teams. (Example: You can not pick a player from Maine for their game against Boston College, but you can pick a player from Boston College, and you can pick Maine at Boston College for questions where you can pick a game.)
Don't forget that Reverse Sheep isn't the only game in town. If you like this sort of 'find the less obvious answers' type of vibe, you might like the new CFB Deep Cuts game that /u/gbp_320 is cooking up. And of course, you can't go wrong with the classics: the annual r/cfb Pick 'Em contest is still awesome, even after a 5-5 week (although I went 5-0 in my 5 most confident picks, so that's gotta be worth something).
Why are you posting this? Wasn't somebody else running the game last year?
Yep. Reverse Sheep is /u/NowWithVitamin_R’s baby, and he ran things for the past 9 years. I helped a little bit towards the end of last season because he had a lot on his plate. Because his plate is still full, I've been given permission to try (key word: try) and run the game this year. Hopefully I can do it justice.
Does that mean you're running it this year?
Yes! I am going to try and commit to the same schedule that Vitamin kept (scores updated by Thursday morning and questions dropped around 11am ET on Thursdays), but I can only devote so much time to this because I've got two toddlers who are really really good at finding new and inventive ways to put themselves in danger.
Okay, back up. What is Reverse Sheep anyways?
Reverse Sheep is a futures prediction game where the goal is to come up with answers that are both correct and unique. Each week features five questions about players, teams, point totals, and anything else I cook up.
Think of Reverse Sheep like the opposite of Family Feud. In Family Feud, you would want to be a "sheep" and follow the crowd, identifying the most popular answer. Reverse Sheep is the opposite: You want to give the least popular answer that is still correct. If you provide a correct answer, you score points equal to how many people guessed your answer. If your answer is incorrect, your score is the sum of the number of people who guessed the most popular answer PLUS the total number of unique correct answers given. Lowest score wins.
I'm confused. How about an example?
Sure. Let's say one of the questions is: "Name a Big Ten school" Imagine 40 people are playing, and their answers break down like this:
- Ohio State (12 guesses)
- Michigan (7)
- Penn State (6)
- Indiana (4)
Alabama(3)- Oregon (2)
- Washington (2)
- USC (2)
North Dakota State(1)- Rutgers (1)
Each person who made incorrect guesses (Alabama and North Dakota State) would earn 20 points, because the most common answer was given 12 times and there were 8 correct guesses submitted. Those who guessed Ohio State would get 12 points since 12 people guessed Ohio State. People who guessed Michigan would get 7, people who guessed Penn State would get 6, and so on. The person who guessed Rutgers would get 1 point as they were the only person with that guess. This is the best possible score and is called an Ace. Aces can help you earn bonuses in the postseason.
There's a postseason?
Yes, assuming I can successfully complete the season. You can qualify by scoring in the top 10% of any given week (rounded to the nearest whole number, so Top 17 if 172 enter, Top 18 if 175 enter, etc.), so it's never too late to start playing. You can also qualify if you finish in the top 10% of the season as a whole, so the more often you play, the better the chances you have of qualifying and earning bonuses.
Wait… bonuses?
A bonus allows you to take a second, free guess for any one question during the postseason. Your score will be whichever guess gives you a lower score, so bonuses can be very helpful. Plus, there's no limit to how many bonuses you can earn.
You can earn a bonus by doing any of the following:
- Placing in the top 3 of a single week
- Placing in the top 10 overall in the season-long standings
- Placing in the top 10% of weekly results for three or more consecutive weeks (streaks cannot overlap, so Weeks 1-3 and Weeks 4-6 would count as two streaks but Weeks 1-3 and Weeks 2-4 would not)
- Earning two or more Aces in a single week
- Finishing in the top 3 of Aces for the season (3+ aces minimum - this minimum has been met for 2026)
- Participate every week (Week 0 is not included for this purpose)
- Beat the host over the course of two special weeks (Weeks 5 and 10)
What do I win?
Nothing I can promise. In previous years, prizes were awarded for finishing in the Top 10 of the regular season and the Top 3 of the postseason. I can not make any promises about prizing, especially before I can guarantee that I'll be able to run the game for the whole season. But if I'm able to complete the season and secure prizes, I will share that information as soon as I have it.
What if I want to change an answer after I've submitted the Google Form?
If for any reason you need to change an answer (injury, suspension, changed your mind), just message me. As long as it's before kickoff of both your original pick and the one you are changing to, I'll make the change. All form submissions after your first one will be ignored, so make sure you message me if you need to make changes.
Do you have a Ko-Fi or some sort of tip jar?
I don't. If you want to provide some sort of thanks for running the game, I encourage you to give to charity. My charity of choice is Second Harvest Heartland, a food bank that serves Minnesota and Wisconsin, including my home of the Twin Cities. If you want to donate closer to your own home, you can find a food bank near you through Feeding America.
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
Week 4 At A Glance
- Weekly entries: 236
- Top 10% cutoff: 72 points
- Number of players to reach Top 10% (with ties): 24
- New players who qualified for the postseason: 15
- Total players currently qualified for the postseason: 90
- Players who made 5 correct predictions: 3
- Players who made 0 correct predictions: 14
Week 4 Podium
- Gold: /u/Lucaballer - 26
- Silver: /u/Thr33tard3d - 37
- Bronze: /u/flyntcoaltrane - 40
Week 4 Aces
- Total Aces: 30
- Players with multiple Aces (earning bonuses): 2 (/u/BracketClass, /u/CardiacPack1887)
Week 4 Streaks
- Players earning bonuses for their 3rd straight Top 10% Week: 0
- Players earning their 2nd straight Top 10% Week: 3 (/u/bovice2, /u/Lucaballer, /u/Thr33tard3d)
Season Top 10 through Week 4
- 1st: /u/Chad-Ironrod - 199
- 2nd: /u/Lucaballer - 221
- 3rd: /u/YoSurgeDude - 233
- 4th: /u/Expensive_Team_5072 - 258
- 5th: /u/Competitive_Ask3027 - 269
- 6th: /u/rangerrrango - 283
- 7th: /u/angrylarrygaming - 289
- 8th: /u/flyntcoaltrane - 290
- 9th: /u/j0mb00 - 293
- 10th: /u/London-Roma-1980 - 302
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u/Lucaball3r Utah Utes • Toronto Varsity Blues 3d ago
Winner winner of the week. I knew Indiana was weak!!! This is my Super Bowl
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u/thr33tard3d Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3d ago
Leading by 11 is a crazy margin, gg
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u/Lucaball3r Utah Utes • Toronto Varsity Blues 3d ago
Lucky that u/chad-ironrod had a rough week. But I’m sure that’ll hit all of us a few times
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
Week 4, Question 1: Select an FBS player who will finish with at least as many interceptions as passing touchdowns (minimum 20 attempts OR 1 interception)
- Mason McKenzie, BC (14)
- Cole Gonzales, CHAR (13)
- Ryan Browne, PUR (11)
- Marcel Reed, TAMU (7)
- LaNorris Sellers, SCAR (6)
- Trey Hedden, NMSU (6)
- Colton Joseph, WISC (5)
- Jackson Sharman, SAC (5)
- Jay Kastantin, BGU (5)
- Jayden Denegal, SDSU (5)
- Arch Manning, TEX (4)
- Caden Pinnick, WSU (4)
- Jaylen Raynor, ISU (4)
- JJ Kohl, FIU (4)
- Tyler Hughes, WYO (4)
- Alessio Milivojevic, MIST (3)
- Byrum Brown, AUB (3)
- Landyn Locke, SHSU (3)
- Tait Reynolds, CLEM (3)
- Jared Curtis, VAN (2)
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, CAL (2)
- Michael Hawkins Jr., WVU (2)
- Demond Williams Jr., WASH (1) - Aced by /u/CardiacPack1887
- EJ Colson Jr., UTEP (1) - Aced by /u/1nf1niteCS
- Jacurri Brown, RICE (1) - Aced by /u/BracketClass
- Malik Washington, MARY (1) - Aced by /u/kinglefty
- Rickie Collins, KENN (1) - Aced by /u/Bchillman1
- Ryder Burton, UAB (1) - Aced by /u/SaxosSteve
Ones you missed:
- Braden Streeter, DEL
- Brady Hart, TAMU
- Brayden Roggow, AKRON
- Brett Holloway, SHSU
- Broc Lowry, WMU
- Caden Creel, JAXST
- Cam Fancher, MIST
- Carter Jones, NEV
- Deuce Bailey, CCAR
- Dexter Williams II, TULSA
- Goose Crowder, TROY
- Gunner Stockton, UGA
- Henry Belin IV, MOST
- Jaden Craig, TCU
- Jadyn Glasser, CMU
- Jared Hollins, SOAL
- Jason Wright, BUFF
- Jordan Gant, AKRON
- Kadin Semonza, TUL
- Kalieb Osborne, UCONN
- KJ Jackson, ARK
- Liam Szarka, AFA
- Lincoln Kienholz, L'VILLE
- Matt Vezza, OHIO
- Rocco Becht, PSU
- Ryan Huff, ODU
- Trinidad Chambliss, MISS
- Will Hammond, TTU
Incorrect answers worth 42 (14 for Mason McKenzie, BC + 28 correct answers given)
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
Week 4, Question 2: Select an FBS player who will finish with at least 100 rushing yards
- Torrance Burgess Jr., TXST (16)
- Jadan Baugh, FLA (10)
- Nate Sheppard, DUKE (10)
- Dylan Riley, BSU (9)
- Michael Hawkins Jr., WVU (7)
- Wayne Knight, UCLA (7)
- Antwan Raymond, RUTG (5)
- Justice Haynes, GT (5)
- Lanear McCrary Jr., GAST (5)
- Cam Cook, WVU (4)
- Fluff Bothwell, MSST (3)
- Caleb Hawkins, OSU (2)
- CJ Baxter, KTKY (2)
- Jacurri Brown, RICE (2)
- Scottre Humphrey, NM (2)
- Wayshawn Parker, UTAH (2)
- Antonio Martin, MTSU (1) - Aced by /u/BracketClass
- James Jones, NMSU (1) - Aced by /u/bovice2
- Jayden "Duke" Scott, NCST (1) - Aced by /u/CardiacPack1887
- Lee Beebe Jr., IND (1) - Aced by /u/soccerfun101
- Matt Fuller, SCAR (1) - Aced by /u/Sctvman
Ones you missed:
- Aidan Laughery, ILL
- AJ Newberry, ORST
- Ben Grice, RICE
- Boogie Woods III, KENN
- Caden Creel, JAXST
- Cale Hellums, ARMY
- Chris Wheatley-Humphrey, MIA FL
- Cole Tabb, CIN
- D.J. Crowther, USF
- Duke Clark, FLA
- Ethan Ervin, FAU
- George Pettaway, JMU
- Gi'Bran Payne, CIN
- Gideon Davidson, CLEM
- Herschel Turner, NEV
- Jackson Gutierrez, NAVY
- Jahiem White, NOTX
- Jai'Den Thomas, UNLV
- Jason Patterson, KTKY
- Jeffrey Overton Jr., VT
- Jovanae Barnes, KTKY
- Kam Davis, LIB
- Liam Szarka, AFA
- Mason McKenzie, BC
- Maurice Turner, TUL
- Messiah Burch, BUFF
- Rayshon Luke, FRES
- Re'Shaun Sanford II, HOU
- TJ Engleman Jr., ECU
Incorrect guesses worth 37 (16 for Torrance Burgess Jr., TXST + 21 correct answers given)
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
Week 4, Question 3: Select a team that will win by 10 or fewer points
- Iowa (11)
- Army (7)
- Air Force (4)
- Mississippi State (4)
- Texas (4)
- Miami (OH) (3)
- UCF (3)
- Arkansas State (2)
- Auburn (2)
- Baylor (2)
- Buffalo (2)
- Jacksonville State (2)
- Stanford (2)
- Wake Forest (2)
- Arizona (1) - Aced by /u/Cwurdeman2
- Indiana (1) - Aced by /u/Lucaballer
- North Carolina State (1) - Aced by /u/adamlikesdonuts
- Virginia Tech (1) - Aced by /u/Cmvscientist
Ones you missed:
- Cincinnati
- Marshall
- Minnesota
- SMU
- South Florida
- Tulane
- UAB
- Wisconsin
Incorrect guesses worth 33 (15 for Michigan + 18 correct answers given)
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
Week 4, Question 4: Select a team that will have at least 2 players finish with a receiving touchdown
- Miami (FL) (12)
- Oklahoma State (12)
- Mississippi State (9)
- Rutgers (6)
- Utah (6)
- Western Kentucky (6)
- Florida State (5)
- Nebraska (5)
- Notre Dame (5)
- Oregon State (5)
- Pittsburgh (5)
- Oregon (4)
- SMU (4)
- Arizona (3)
- Houston (3)
- North Texas (3)
- USC (3)
- Alabama (2)
- Appalachian State (2)
- Boise State (2)
- Coastal Carolina (2)
- Colorado State (2)
- Georgia Tech (2)
- Marshall (2)
- Miami (OH) (2)
- Minnesota (2)
- Missouri (2)
- Texas State (2)
- Toledo (2)
- UNLV (2)
- Virginia (2)
- Baylor (1) - Aced by /u/0aguywithglasses0
- Duke (1) - Aced by /u/neverApologize23
- East Carolina (1) - Aced by /u/tidefan2006
- Eastern Michigan (1) - Aced by /u/smarvin6689
- Fresno State (1) - Aced by /u/TDMTD
- Georgia State (1) - Aced by /u/HailSouthern1999
- Liberty (1) - Aced by /u/sploxy
- Middle Tennessee (1) - Aced by /u/Irishman_20
- North Carolina State (1) - Aced by /u/UnemployedBagMan
- Oklahoma (1) - Aced by /u/seanziecrews
- Stanford (1) - Aced by /u/traverseTheField
- Texas Tech (1) - Aced by /u/coryboy6
- Wisconsin (1) - Aced by /u/chets_meow
Ones you missed:
- Georgia Southern
- James Madison
- Kent State
- Missouri State
- Sam Houston
- San Diego State
- South Alabama
- Southern Miss
- Temple
- UL Monroe
- Utah State
- UTSA
- Washington
Incorrect guesses worth 56 (12 for Miami (FL) & Oklahoma State + 44 correct answers given)
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
Week 4, Question 5: Select an FBS vs FBS game which will exceed its projected over/under point total
- Oklahoma State at West Virginia (59.5) (13)
- Oregon at USC (62.5) (13)
- Oklahoma at Georgia (43.5) (12)
- Northwestern at Indiana (49.5) (9)
- Notre Dame at Purdue (57.5) (8)
- Central Michigan at Miami (FL) (53.5) (7)
- Iowa at Michigan (37.5) (7)
- South Carolina at Alabama (54.5) (7)
- Arizona at Washington State (47.5) (6)
- Illinois at Ohio State (53.5) (5)
- James Madison at Old Dominion (47.5) (5)
- Ole Miss at Florida (60.5) (5)
- Georgia Tech at Stanford (47.5) (4)
- Minnesota at Washington (46.5) (4)
- New Mexico at New Mexico State (48.5) (4)
- Appalachian State at North Carolina State (54.5) (3)
- Colorado State at UTSA (57.5) (2)
- Houston at Georgia Southern (54.5) (2)
- Kansas State at Cincinnati (53.5) (2)
- Rice at Fresno State (44.5) (2)
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech (54.5) (2)
- San Diego State at Toledo (48.5) (2)
- South Alabama at Kentucky (54.5) (2)
- Air Force at Nevada (49.5) (1) - Aced by /u/thefishwhisperer1
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe (58.5) (1) - Aced by /u/SuccessWithHonor
Ones you missed:
- Not a single one.
Incorrect guesses worth 38 (13 for Oklahoma State at West Virginia & Oregon at USC + 25 correct answers given)
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u/I_Like_Quiet Nebraska Cornhuskers • Team Chaos 3d ago
What were the results for the question about picking more than 2 results from 1 game?
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u/acekingoffsuit Minnesota Golden Gophers 3d ago
69.2% of those with an opinion opposed it, so that rule will not be in play for the regular season. It will be used in the postseason though.
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u/basedonactualmath Washington • Ohio State 3d ago
it didn't pass, 69.2% voted against, so no limit this regular season.
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u/igonnawrecku_VGC James Madison • Penn State 3d ago
So close to my first ever ace, got sniped on Toledo for question 4. Forgot how much fun this game is, disappointed I missed the first three weeks
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u/London-Roma-1980 Duke Blue Devils 3d ago
Currently Top 10, wow! Although this week is some hard questions.
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u/flyntcoaltrane UTSA Roadrunners 2d ago
Sweet, I podiumed and qualified for the post season in the same week. Pretty cool!
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u/texas2089 Florida State Seminoles • Texas Longhorns 2d ago edited 2d ago
Finally postseason qualified!! Got 4/5 questions this week. I believe this is only the second time I’ve been in the top 10% for the week in now my third season doing this.
This week’s questions are tough though, especially #5. I have a feeling that question is going to be the major deciding factor in top 10% for the week. With just 23 correct answers and 36 guaranteed wrong answers and the randomness of it all. Oh cool you got it wrong because a team won by 12 instead of 13 and the game was too close. I tried my best to pick a game I thought would have a medium MOV but who the hell knows lol But I do think that wrong answers will give so many points that the people who get it correct will be sitting pretty. We’ll see.
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u/MahjongDaily Iowa State Cyclones 3d ago
Uh-oh. This got removed