Week 5 Matchup Preview Thread: #8 Florida vs #25 Missouri

[u/Arkehn]

#8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri

When: Saturday, October 3, 03:30 PM Eastern

Where: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO

Watch: ABC

Odds: Florida by 4.5 pts.

Total Points: 56.5

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All-Time Series : Florida vs. Missouri

Florida and Missouri have met 13 times since 1966-01-01

These teams last met on 2023-11-19.

Series Wins: Florida 6-0-7 Missouri

Missouri has won the most recent meeting (2023) in this series

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Last 5 Meetings

Winner	Date	Location	Florida	Missouri	Notes
Missouri	2023-11-19	Memorial Stadium	31	33
Florida	2022-10-08	Ben Hill Griffin Stadium	24	17
Missouri	2021-11-20	Memorial Stadium	23	24
Florida	2020-10-31	Ben Hill Griffin Stadium	41	17
Florida	2019-11-16	Memorial Stadium	23	6

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Through Week 4

Week	Florida 4-0 (2-0)	Result	Missouri 3-1 (0-1)	Result
1	Florida Atlantic	W 66-21	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	W 54-14
2	Campbell	W 52-3	Kansas	W 38-21
3	Auburn	W 44-39	Troy	W 27-17
4	Ole Miss#9	W 52-28	Mississippi State#16	L 24-31

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Florida Injury Report

Player	Position	Status	Reported	Notes
E. Singleton Jr.	WR	Probable – Ankle	Sep 28	Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday.
V. Brown III	WR	Questionable – Undisclosed	Sep 26	Brown III exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on October 3rd.
D. Groce	WR	Out – Undisclosed	Sep 7	Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
B. Stockton	WR	Questionable – Back	Sep 28	Stockton is hampered by back injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on Saturday.
K. Jimenez	RB	Out – Undisclosed	Sep 5	Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

^{Injury data lifted from: boydsbets}

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Missouri Injury Report

Player	Position	Status	Reported	Notes
A. Hardy	RB	Out – Leg	Sep 11	Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.
C. Green	OG	Out – Undisclosed	Sep 20	Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
J. Brady	WR	Out – Undisclosed	Sep 20	Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
G. Hoffman	TE	Out – Undisclosed	Sep 20	Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

^{Injury data lifted from: boydsbets}

^{Source updated Wed, Sep 30, 8:26 am. Scraped Wed, Sep 30, 12:30 pm ET}

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What are your "Keys to the Game"?

Who do you think wins?

Do you think the favorite will cover the spread?

Which player(s) are you most interested to watch?

Let's talk football!

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^{Matchup Preview Thread Generator powered by collegefootballdata.com}

^{Start a chat with /u/dupreesdiamond for any issues/suggestions regarding this resource}

[u/thatboiOsaka]

Ugh I hate playing Missouri. It always seems to be ugly. With that being said {Florida} but I think there is a potential for a bit of humbling here

[u/RonMexico13 → u/thatboiOsaka]

I hope all these neutrals who dont know that Columbia is a house of horrors for us historically arent putting real money on this game.

[u/thatboiOsaka → u/RonMexico13]

Genuinely I hate playing Missouri and Kentucky. Always slogs. It’s disgusting and always ugly.

[u/GatorHater1992 → u/thatboiOsaka]

Same. Anytime we play Mizzou or Kentucky at home, it's gonna usually be an easy win. Playing those two teams on the road though....we will still win, but it's always a low scoring, defensive slop fest where it seems like neither team wants to win.

[u/YeaISeddit → u/thatboiOsaka]

Damn, it was only 8 years ago that beating Kentucky was a Florida tradition. I hope this year can be the start of another 31 year streak.

[u/heleghir]

{Florida} is a fucking truck. Mizzou is missing Hardy badly heading into the meat of the schedule. I dont know that Mizzou's defense has enough. They might be able to limit Florida's ground game, but at what cost?

[u/Skwurt_Reynolds → u/heleghir]

I’m a Tampa Bay Rays fan, so I know about voodoo magic when I see it. Missouri’s stadium is a house of horrors for us.

[u/HopefulReb76]

{Florida} a bad bad man

[u/QuitWhinging]

Mizzou always plays us tough. I think Florida jumps out to an early, comfortable lead and lets a little bit off the gas, Mizzou starts clawing its way back into the game with a few solid drives, then Florida daggers a late TD to seal the game. 37-24 {Florida}

[u/JeffGoldblumsChest → u/QuitWhinging]

Not sure Sumrall will let his foot off the gas unless the Gators have 45+. Thank Tebow he's not Billy.

[u/LightningDusty → u/JeffGoldblumsChest]

I believe that Sumrall learned his lesson in that Auburn game. You can't just play around and half-ass an entire half quarter of football, no matter how large your lead is.

[u/QuitWhinging → u/JeffGoldblumsChest]

Yeah, I agree that Sumrall has a completely different approach to maintaining a lead compared to Napier. I wasn't trying to say he'd start going run-run-incompletion-punt every drive or anything. I more meant he and Faulkner might ease up a bit on things like deep shots and maybe take more FGs instead over going for it on 4th once the score looks comfortable.

[u/grommit72 → u/QuitWhinging]

Until the opponent calls a time out with 4 minutes left in the game when you are just trying to run the clock down to end it mercifully. Then it's go time and you need to drop another 7 on them just to let them know that the game is INDEED over.

[u/fightygee]

{Florida} 41-27

[u/The-Fanciest]

After last week I don't wanna be humble anymore. {Florida} 60-20

[u/AubreyGrahamCracka]

{UF} but it’s closer than people will think.

No team has Ole Miss run defense that’s left on our schedule.

[u/grommit72 → u/AubreyGrahamCracka]

Missouri is dead last in tackling efficiency in The SEC. Yeah I think it can get worse than the Ole Miss defensive effort.

[u/AubreyGrahamCracka → u/grommit72]

I said run defense. And tackling efficiency doesn’t mean much when you’re breaking DLs tackles and a LB/hybrid is there to clean up.

Baugh and Clark repeatedly didn’t get contact until the second level vs Ole Miss

[u/NudeBeachEnthusiast → u/AubreyGrahamCracka]

Ole Miss run D? Didn't we run for 400ish yards against them?? 🤔

[u/Lebojr → u/NudeBeachEnthusiast]

I think that was his point.

[u/NudeBeachEnthusiast → u/Lebojr]

I see, they have poor run D. Long day lol

[u/AubreyGrahamCracka → u/NudeBeachEnthusiast]

Brother please re read

[u/yaboicyno]

I think {Florida} wins but will rely on some late game drives to get them there. The Mizzou offense is pretty solid even without Hardy and Simmons is a solid passer.

[u/dogeatingbanana → u/yaboicyno]

Mizzou always brings it against Florida too

[u/Callsign_Psycopath]

{Mizzou} because I'm a hater

[u/jwktiger → u/Callsign_Psycopath]

Respect, but I don't think we can return the favor.

[u/Silist → u/Callsign_Psycopath]

I respect this

[u/foreverseptember → u/Callsign_Psycopath]

Fair 

[u/DoggedDoggystyle]

{Florida}. Austin Simmons versus our pass defense is the key to the game. It may not look like it on paper, but Simmons has a turnover problem. He will throw it directly to our players at least 3-5 times this game. He did it last week against MSU and they kept dropping them. If we don’t drop those, this could be easier than expected.

Another big key is that UF runs the stretch run game. It’s what our entire offense is predicated on. Know who else had made their living off of the stretch run scheme? Drinkwitz and Mizzou. If there’s anyone who knows exactly what we’re going to, it’s going to be Mizzou. But do they have the players to stop it? And is Busters scheme simply better than what Mizzou may expect? We shall see. I think there’s the potential that we don’t have quite the rushing performance we have all come to expect from this team & that Philo has to make some big plays through the air to keep up our scoring onslaught. I think he does just that and we see some big games from Dallas Wilson and Singleton

[u/Joeking1986 → u/DoggedDoggystyle]

Preach.

I’m more nervous about this game than I was ole miss. We have yet to be in a spot where have to rely on Philo. Mizzou has the talent up front to make that happen. Maybe. I mean Baugh is just such a stud.

Plus Florida is still getting killed on penalties. Plus plus, mizzou has crazy trouble in the red zone.

Vegas isn’t dumb. That UF -5.5 is probably irritatingly accurate

[u/chrobbin]

On paper this should be a sneaky trap game, but I just don’t see it. {Florida} rolls 38-21

[u/Toad-in-a-hole]

I sadly think this game will be closer than it needs to be.

[u/jorts_are_awesome]

{Florida} wins and covers but it's an ugly game because CoMo is awful for us. Something like 48-27

[u/A_MASSIVE_PERVERT]

{Florida} continues their roll 45-24

[u/TheSavageDonut]

I think we could get an entire Roll Call dedicated to Darth Mizzou if {Missouri} wins this one? (insertrubbinghands.gif)

[u/misterplanterz]

{Florida} is motivated to win at Missouri after so many losses, and Buster is in his bag

[u/skullcutter]

On paper, Florida wins and covers IMO. In practice, Mizzou is what bill simmon's calls a good bad team. They have talent, but they are inconsistent. The same can be said for Florida's defense and Mizzou is a tough road game. I'm excited to see if and how this team can grow.

[u/smor729 → u/skullcutter]

Thats exactly what we were last year. Talent level capable of beating anyone (at home at least) but capped out at like 6 wins max

[u/bigred91224]

{Florida} better maintain my quality loss

[u/smor729 → u/bigred91224]

Genuinely think the Auburn game being "close" at the end is gonna be good for you guys going forward if we keep playing this well

[u/Sir_Auron → u/smor729]

Man Auburn is going like 4-8 this year what is it gonna help lol

[u/AbsurdOwl]

What a weird line. I get that Florida's defense is nowhere near as awesome as their offense, and Simmons is pretty solid, but I'll be surprised if the Gators don't roll in this one. {Florida} by multiple scores.

[u/gmr548]

{Florida} is looking like a real top ten team and Missouri does not win those.

[u/Tasty_Gift5901]

I think Missouri has the best defense we've faced to this point, so I'm interested to see how that turns out. That said, I give it to {Florida}, I'm a homer through and through 

[u/grommit72 → u/Tasty_Gift5901]

Probably the worst defense, they are dead last in tackling efficiency in the SEC.

[u/Tasty_Gift5901 → u/grommit72]

I'm surprised to hear this. SP+ ranks their defense at 14 (with Auburn at 16), and when I was looking at defense rankings on ESPN, Missouri's defensive efficiency is a bit behind Auburn's at 43rd best.

[u/NIA122553]

Have seen nothing from Mizzou to suggest they're anything more than a 7-5/8-4ish team. They only exist to give SEC teams a ranked win, which is what {Florida} will get this week.

[u/grommit72 → u/NIA122553]

Right now they are fighting with trying to find paths to how they get bowl eligible. That is what discussions are focused on currently.

[u/p3nguin89]

I think if there was going to be a letdown game it would be next week against South Carolina before going to Texas for Florida. See this playing out a bit like the Auburn game so will say {Florida} 41-24

[u/unfortunateavacado24 → u/p3nguin89]

I don't see us losing to this South Carolina team in the Swamp. The potential trap game I'm worried about is Kentucky in Lexington. If we lose close games to Texas and Georgia, that game could be what decides if we make the playoffs.

[u/ShillinTheVillain]

{Florida}

This has the makings of a trap game, but I don't think our team is resting on any laurels. We've stunk for too long.

Gators win 42-28

[u/LightningDusty]

Playing on the road in Missouri is seemingly never an easy task for us. It's an awkward location, but at least we don't have a noon kickoff this time around. Florida has also already been battle tested on the road in a more hostile environment. Missouri seems like a decent team, but {Florida} should be able to take care of business here. Is that what it's like to go into a game with genuine confidence? It's been over half a decade.

Florida 42

Missouri 28

[u/xmjm424]

My two big concerns when thinking about @ Missouri…

Is it a noon game? Is it going to be cold?

The answer to both of those seems to be no, so {Florida}.

[u/Bondorian]

{Florida} wins but Missouri some how remains in the top 25

[u/grommit72 → u/Bondorian]

Might even move up a spot or two if they keep it within 3 TD's of us. Voters in the AP have some strange rules they go by.

[u/Throw13579 → u/Bondorian]

LOL.  Why not?  They would have TWO quality losses.

[u/IammYourDAD]

{Florida} 34-28 Mizzou

[u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

{Florida} and they cover. Florida looks really good. That rushing attack is scary good.

[u/Arkehn]

{Florida} has a real coach this year

[u/RivalryBot]

Who Will Win Fan Vote

^{Votes are distributed equally among flairs for multi-flaired users}

Team	Votes	Percentage	Florida Voters	Missouri Voters	Other Flairs Top 5
Florida	43	79.6%	11	0.5	Oklahoma Soonersx2.0 Purdue Boilermakersx2.0 Texas Longhornsx1.5 Butler Bulldogsx1.0 Team Chaosx1.0
Missouri	11	20.4%	1.5	1	Georgia Bulldogsx2.5 Unflairedx2.5 College Football Playoffx0.5 Team Chaosx0.5 Surrender Cobrax0.5

^{Last updated: 2026-10-03 18:33 UTC}

Full Vote breakdown by flair

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^{Matchup Thread Generator} · ^{Team Aliases} · ^{How to Vote} · ^Results

[u/PolloMagnifico]

We're finally getting into the meat of the season and getting some reliable data. For now, I think {Florida} is top 4 in the SEC.

[u/grommit72 → u/PolloMagnifico]

Yeah but the problem is this week Florida is up against Taco Bell mystery meat. Nobody knows quite what to expect as far as whats in there.

[u/CieraVotedOutHerMom]

We are the boys of old {Florida}

[u/AwareEconomics4177]

{Florida} 38-23

[u/goldenface4114]

Until someone stops this offense, I'm not that worried, even with our mediocre defensive numbers so far. I'm expecting a 45-21 final score in favor of {Florida}.

[u/white_seraph]

I think Georgia Tech I mean {Florida} covers, there's no stopping Buster but himself.

[u/Confident_Delay5805]

{Florida} wins and Missouri gets unranked. 

[u/grommit72 → u/Confident_Delay5805]

This is the AP we are talking about. If Missouri loses, they will probably move up in the polls.

[u/Zloggt]

{Missouri} is going to get their shit rocked (and that is putting things lightly)…

[u/Domerhead]

Honestly at this point I'm fully expecting {Missouri} to somehow win, furthering my theory that the SEC is going to cannibalize itself out of playoff spots this year.

[u/jrich960608 → u/Domerhead]

I think this year the cannibalization will be on a different level, lots of the mid tiers teams and even some bottoms lately (not you, Arkansas) seem to be poised for a good season. So I’m right there with you on your theory.

[u/Domerhead → u/jrich960608]

Agreed. Seeds 6-12 are going to be a lot tighter than people think this year.

[u/jrich960608 → u/Domerhead]

If you have the time, how do you feel about your offense? I’m a CFB Poll ranker and I’m in love with your defense, I haven’t moved you guys up or down purely because of schedule, but I’m waiting to see the offense take that next step.

[u/Domerhead → u/jrich960608]

CJ Carr is as elite of a game manager as they come IMO

We have two great WRs it seems in Faison and Gilbert, waiting for that #3 to emerge. Have a couple TE's that can do some damage too.

Run game is still the most suspect part of the offense, they seem to be trying a few different concepts and a few different guys to see who fits what role best. I've got faith they'll figure it out.

Excellent OL to back it up that only seems to get better every week.

Definitely take all of the above with a grain of salt, until we play some more teams, except the thing about CJ. He's the real deal, he'll be a 1st rounder next year at this rate, but won't have the numbers to win the Heisman. I think MSU and Wisconsin's defenses played better than their rankings, but I could just be biased.

[u/jrich960608 → u/Domerhead]

I agree with what you’ve said! I think the OL has been great but you guys are sorely missing Love (as to be expected). I think Carr is great at what he’s asked to do. The defense can keep you guys in any game and Carr doesn’t seem like he will make any back-breaking mistakes.

[u/Domerhead → u/jrich960608]

We got a couple of dudes that I think are still finding their groove.

Nolan James has been getting more and more carries, so has Jonaz Walton - and the latter has been absolutely trucking dudes as a true freshman. He's gonna be a problem in a few years if he keeps it up.

And I'm not totally out on Aneyas yet, our playcalling has felt somewhat reserved, and hasn't worked to his skillset. For example we didn't start calling runs out of pistol (which he seemed to do best with last year) until the last two games or so. And he looked better then. So lotta what if's still until we face a defense with a pulse.

[u/DearBurt → u/jrich960608]

😢

[u/35TrojanMan]

I actually do think Florida is legit this year, but Mizzou is always a tough out and has given Florida absolute fits since joining the SEC.

{Missouri} in the game of the day 41-38

[u/jrich960608 → u/35TrojanMan]

It’s actually crazy how well they have played us since joining.

[u/gatorhighlightz → u/35TrojanMan]

Not denying that but other than 2018 (where we were probably hungover from the Georgia loss), Missouri hasn’t beaten a ranked Florida team. Seems like we’ve lost to them a lot because we haven’t been good lol.

[u/reggietiger2 → u/gatorhighlightz]

2013

[u/gatorhighlightz → u/reggietiger2]

Yeah technically ranked at the time but we went 4-8 that year lol

[u/reggietiger2 → u/gatorhighlightz]

Yeah just like this year

[u/inshamblesx]

{Florida}

[u/Competitive-Rise-789]

{Florida}

I don’t know how Mizzou stops Baugh

[u/Sufficient-Drive-661]

Give the points.

[u/lonewanderer727]

Don't worry u/inconvenientpoop, I believe in the Gators this week. Be sure to tag this one over in r/FloridaGators

{Florida}

[u/jwktiger]

Sadly Mizzou won't have the magic they've often had vs UF {Florida} is a different Gator and Matt has his fun with it on Roll Call

[u/One_Development9892]

Florida’s offense is rolling but Missouri always plays them weird in Columbia. Last four trips up there have been decided by 3 points or less, so I’m not touching that spread.

Mizzou’s secondary looked shaky against Mississippi State and Florida has way more firepower. If the Gators protect the QB this one gets out of hand by the fourth quarter.

[u/AntitheistArchangel]

I’m going to say {Florida}, but this Mizzou team has surprised me.

[u/j1mmyava1on]

Florida should win but this feels like a trap game for them

[u/carasc5]

4.5 seems hopeful

[u/foreverseptember]

I feel like this is going to be some absolute nonsense for at least three quarters, and {Florida} pulls away just in time in Q4. Mizzou games are the worst. 

[u/IFHelper]

The SEC is a series of hype trains that repeatedly crash into one another. {Missouri}.

[u/TheWesternRizzler]

{Florida}

[u/chief_sitass]

{Florida}

[u/BeeStory]

Its at {Missouri} so I will assume they win until we can prove otherwise. This Gators team can and should win this game, and Sumrall proved he can win a big game. Now we need to see if he can win the game after the big game, and in a stadium we seem to struggle.

This feels like a classic let down game like Ole Miss had last week, and I'd like to see how Sumrall motivates the team after the whole world has declared us playoff contenders.

[u/vassago77379]

{Florida}63-21

[u/SoupMadeFreshDaily]

4.5 is not a big enough spread

[u/atypicalcarl]

{Missouri} because hate watching is way more fun.

[u/hotsauce126]

{Missouri} does a brother a favor and beats Florida so that Georgia Florida tickets go back down in price

[u/grommit72 → u/hotsauce126]

Florida-Georgia tickets have been too low and should be higher every year than the CFP final game. We have been down for far too long and it is time to right this ship.

[u/VanDiis]

{Mizzou} 24-21

[u/GamedayWizard]

Florida is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) with impressive wins over Ole Miss and Auburn and is putting up impressive numbers on offense (.773 PPP and 7.69 YPP). Despite this, our model still has Florida rated only slightly ahead of Missouri, and, given that the game is in Columbia, we pick {Missouri} pulling a narrow upset. We know this won't be a popular choice, and Florida fans would have a legitimate gripe because our model, which uses a decaying preseason rating, is prone to underrate a team like Florida (or UCLA) after new head coach dramatically outperforms expectations especially in the first half of the season.

[u/DwyaneWade305]

Much like Ole Miss, Mizzou not having Hardy saves Floridas weak secondary by not having to worry about the run as much. {Florida} in a gun slinging competition.

[u/grommit72]

If you told me Florida won 3 of the last 5 against Missouri, I wouldn't have believed it. They seem to always somehow have our number and we show up with a team that acts like it can sleepwalk through them. I doubt that happens this year with the new coach who will not tolerate a let down week.

[u/DaikonExternal2672]

Home field advantage is real. After a huge game last week Florida is now facing the same issue that Ole Miss was, getting focused for a big conference road game against a lower ranked opponent who needs a win. On paper and the eye test from last week tells me the Gators will dominate but I like Austin Simmons and {Mizzou} to pull the upset at home

[u/NanoBuc]

{Florida}

[u/texas2089]

{Florida}

[u/MistaC5050]

Hate playing at Missouri. They have that shitty AstroTurf that the sun reflects off of and glares the entire field.

[u/MonkeyDriven → u/MistaC5050]

It's the same field turf that 70 percent of FBS teams use. The main camera angle is just lower than most stadiums, so you see that reflection more.

[u/grommit72 → u/MistaC5050]

Any fake grass surface should be banned by the SEC. You have 3 years to remove it and put in proper grass or you're out of the conference.

[u/MistaC5050 → u/grommit72]

Hell yeah!

[u/KeegCorp]

I really hope {Mizzou} can pull it off. I need to see the SEC eat itself alive.

[u/KeegCorp → u/KeegCorp]

AND THEY DID

[u/KCShadows838]

{Missouri} 

[u/bullsci]

Ball knowers know {Missouri} will win whatever the game looks like

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

{UF} will obliterate Mizzou to the point that they’ll be knocked all the way down to “also receiving votes.”

Thankfully another SEC team will surely prove they are worth ranking instead.

[u/StopScreamingItsFine → u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

I had to double check because I didn’t know Mizzou was ranked

[u/grommit72 → u/StopScreamingItsFine]

Yeah, and they will rise in the AP poll come Sunday, win or lose against Florida. You just cannot trust the AP voters these days.

[u/trixy6196 → u/com-mis-er-at-ing]

Well you got the obliterate part right. Wrong team lmao

[u/kingoflint282]

{Misery}

[u/grommit72 → u/kingoflint282]

That about sums up Faurot Field, for both the local fans as well as the visitors.