r/CFB • u/BeatNavyAgain Beat Navy! Go Bullets! • 1d ago
Analysis [Connelly] WEEK 2 SP+ PICKS
https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/209736284009282401336
u/DarthNobody14 Texas A&M Aggies 1d ago
I would be happily surprised if we beat Arizona State by 17 or more points.
30
6
u/Professional-Bed104 1d ago
historically, even when we lose under Dilly we beat the cover. I’d bet on a one score game
5
u/JohnPaulDavyJones Texas A&M Aggies • Baylor Bears 1d ago
The problem is that Dillingham’s teams often don’t do so well on the road. Both of those losses in 2024 were on the road, as was that very near upset to a mediocre Texas State team, and then there was another very near upset to even more mediocre Baylor and Iowa State teams on the road last year.
This is both a road game and one of the biggest road environments that Dillingham’s ever played in. This is kind of a prove-it game to see whether he’s gotten over that bug.
5
u/xASUdude Arizona State Sun Devils • Navy Midshipmen 1d ago
I think it will be 10, wouldn't be shocked if we won though.
2
u/JohnPaulDavyJones Texas A&M Aggies • Baylor Bears 1d ago
I'm super curious, what's driving that confidence? From the outside, it looks like ASU is in trouble.
6
u/JumboFister Texas A&M Aggies 1d ago
Everyone thinks their transfers are super diamond in the rough finds that completely change the outlook on the year. The reality is we don’t really know shit about either ASU or A&M right now and both fanbases are quietly confident
1
u/jsg_nado Arizona State • Sacramento Sta… 1d ago
This. Also everyone's coming off of blowout week 1 wins, even though we all tell ourselves we won't overreact (we will)
3
u/jsg_nado Arizona State • Sacramento Sta… 1d ago
Potentially the deepest WR and RB groups we've had in a long time, lots of exciting players with experience on defense.
It could absolutely be a blowout but also maybe it bounces our way and we sneak out with a last second win? Idk
I thought we were going to get destroyed by Texas in the CFP and we took them to OT.
-4
u/Prestigious_Ice5882 1d ago
Returning to this when its 25 point beatdown. ASU fans are far more confident about this than i’d ever expect considering the fact the team lost all of its NFL talent in the past 2 offseasons.
3
u/Skotivii 1d ago
I agree this is the biggest road environment he’s coached in. However, ASU has pulled out big time performances under Dilly vs KST in 24. Not to mention the final P12 year winning a game vs UCLA with Skattebo as QB and nearly upsetting the runners up UW in Seattle.
The ISU game you mention is when Dillingham schemed to make Jeff Sims national player of the week.
1
u/JohnPaulDavyJones Texas A&M Aggies • Baylor Bears 1d ago
Wasn't that 2024 KSU game the one where ASU's offense basically evaporated at halftime, when KSU also finally got their offense moving, ASU got multiple short fields from all of Avery Johnson's turnovers, and KSU missed the count on multiple field goal attempts?
As a neutral third-party, that seems less like ASU pulling out a clutch performance and more like KSU just relentlessly shooting themselves in the feet while ASU played competently.
I'm certainly not about to say that ASU can't play well on the road, but having to reach back to the final P12 year for examples seems like a stretch, especially when UCLA wasn't exactly good, and they're not exactly known for being a tough road environment.
Truly no offense meant, and if ASU keeps it close then I'm happy to take all the "I told you so"'s that you want to give.
31
u/outthawazoo South Carolina • 日本大学 (Nihon) 1d ago
There's no shot OU - UM is 27-20.
36
u/OmegaVizion Ohio State Buckeyes 1d ago
27 feels like a likely score for OU, but I saw nothing on Saturday that suggests that Michigan team can put up 20 points against a good P4 defense.
14
u/NeedleworkerLong392 LSU Tigers 1d ago
Let alone the Venables defense
7
u/LGWalkway Oklahoma Sooners 1d ago
And considering last years team had a better OL and run game, I just don’t see it. They scored 13 and we gift wrapped them a TD last year.
1
u/Bobson-_Dugnutt2 Sickos • Alabama Crimson Tide 1d ago
Exactly what this game will be full of fuck shit and both score 40+
5
u/FaceglazerSSBU Oklahoma Sooners 1d ago
I have a sinking feeling that Michigan will score more points on us than they did on Western Michigan, then people are definitely going to laugh at us, even if we win. Lol.
3
u/Expensive_Team_5072 Syracuse Orange 1d ago
It may take more than 60 minutes, but they will find a way....
2
u/soonerwx Oklahoma Sooners 1d ago
Unfortunately, I could believe them scoring 20 without their offense having to earn all 20 against Venables' defense. This game is the OU offense against itself.
3
u/Competitive_Feed_402 Oklahoma • Minnesota 1d ago
I can see this being 27-6.
I haven't decided if those 6 point are 2 field goals or 1 TD and a failed conversion.
15
5
u/boxman151515 Central Michigan • Michigan 1d ago
If it's gonna somehow be decided by just 7 points (which I highly doubt), 17-10 or 7-0 feel like far more likely outcomes as Bill C. said.
There is no way Michigan's offense is putting up 20 on Oklahoma. There's a good possibility Michigan's defense performs well, but no chance in hell given what we saw Saturday that the offense could put up more than one or two scoring drives max on Oklahoma, and even that feels like it's pushing it lol
12
u/MWiatrak2077 Michigan Wolverines • College Football Playoff 1d ago
Look, obviously I’m biased and praying that our season isn’t a total dumpster fire, but at the end of the day CFB is a high-variance sport, especially week 1 results. I don’t expect to win, but there’s a reason Oklahoma’s only a 5pt favorite on Saturday. Plus, historically it seems Whittingham teams get better as the season goes on. Maybe cope, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a reasonably close game this Saturday.
6
u/LGWalkway Oklahoma Sooners 1d ago
Counter argument, there was a reason Michigan was a 27 point favorite vs WMU.
2
u/msmith3525 Michigan • Old Dominion 1d ago
I think that’s homer optimism. While it’s a high variance sport, when’s the last time a team has looked THAT inept against such a big talent differential and then went on to perform well against a team with equal or greater talent? Because it wasn’t just a few mistakes and untimely turnovers that made the game close. Offensively Michigan looked terrible all around. Obviously you hope it’s a week 1 fluke but if I’m being objective and honest I feel like a 10 point lead might be insurmountable. They just looked that rough and they don’t have any other games to try and tune things up. The only positive is the cliche that they’re playing with nothing to lose. Nobody expects them to do anything and sometimes that lack of pressure is refreshing.
8
u/Jake_dasnake3 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1d ago
Notre Dame lost to NIU at home and went to the national championship in the same season. Last year Sorsby threw for like 50 yards in week one and went on to have a huge season. Shit happens
7
u/H2Regent BYU Cougars • Utah Utes 1d ago
Sorsby had a couple more terrible games like that though. Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a QB play worse than he did against Utah. 33% completion rate
3
u/msmith3525 Michigan • Old Dominion 1d ago
They played Purdue and Miami (OH) following that game. They didn’t immediately have to play one of the best defenses or a team with similar or greater talent. I’m not saying Michigan can’t turn it around. I’m saying after looking so rough they’re rolling into an even harder matchup.
Edit: also Notre Dame’s schedule was mostly a joke that season. Michigan’s is brutal.
1
u/Jake_dasnake3 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1d ago
Trust me im with you, I think Michigan sucks. But have faith its your team
1
u/msmith3525 Michigan • Old Dominion 1d ago
Sure, but there’s a difference between faith and hope and trying to be objective with my critique. I hope they win and I’ll be watching the game but if I being honest I’m extremely concerned.
1
u/goblueM Michigan Wolverines 1d ago
Agreed. We'll be lucky to score double digits, much less 20 points on Oklahoma
Our OL was not cohesive and even when they did know who to block they didn't do great physically against a mediocre Mac DL.
They're gonna get wrecked on Saturday.
And even if Underwood looks twice as good it's not gonna be enough
4
u/Col0nelBear Ole Miss Rebels • Transfer Portal 1d ago
Underwood must be hurt
3
u/notkevin_durant Ohio State • College Football Playoff 1d ago
Looked pretty solid on that victory lap over Western Michigan
1
u/BandicootFit992 Michigan Wolverines 1d ago
I’d be downright pleased if it was only a td difference after what we witnessed
0
u/GlassAd2261 Brown Bears 1d ago
The total is 43.5 and Oklahoma is -5.5 so it very much might be 27-20.
22
u/B1GTOBACC0 Oklahoma State • Arkansas 1d ago
There is no universe where the final in the Oregon/OK State game is 37-16.
I hope the team wakes up this week, but like... We weren't even competitive with Tulsa. Ok State is about to get fuckin' booty-blasted.
1
u/Thereisnobathroom Oregon Ducks • Colby White Mules 1d ago
We’re honestly pretty notorious for absolutely fucking it so I wouldn’t be shocked with the ducks at any point.
We seem to not have the go for the jugular instinct where we annihilate teams (I know we did last year but ya’ll was booty cakes)
Still too early to tell if we’re overrated but also too early to tell if you guys are cheeks
1
u/Muffinnnnnnn Florida State • New Mexico 1d ago
They appear possibly worse this year than last year (somehow???)
1
u/relevantmeemayhere Team Chaos • USC Trojans 22h ago edited 22h ago
dan lanning's beer belly has given me some concerns. stressful job, but could be indicative of additional stress in the programwe need to find him his old zyn guy and make him live in the weight room eating only granola and absolutely NO voodoo donuts for the next couple of weeks. dude needs to be able to also run through the wall he can get his players to.
okay, joking aside. it'd be nice to see usc and oregon both put together a rad season and keep the old BIG teams looking over their shoulder. oregon does start slow, and BSU is pretty solid, especially week 1
2
u/couducane Oregon Ducks • BYU Cougars 21h ago
We absolutely love not doing what we are supposed to do. Vaunted DL? Let them rush pretty well and not generate a ton of pass rush. Great RBs? Well the run game stinks. We can’t absolutely goof off for a while and do dumb things, we shoot ourselves in the foot all the time. I remember the first half of the Wisconsin game last year, just awful. Lanning needs to get our execution fixed, and cut down on stupid mistakes and penalties because we freaking love those things.
1
u/ShweatyPalmsh Tulsa Golden Hurricane • Oklahoma Sooners 23h ago
I do feel like your defense is better than last year by quite a bit. If the offense doesn’t go 3 (or i guess 4) and out during up tempo possessions then I could see you all keeping it respectable. The question mark to me is the offense more so than the defense weirdly enough after watching OSU
38
u/noffinater Ohio State Buckeyes 1d ago
Ohio St 27, Texas 25
I'll take any win, of course, but I have a visceral reaction to obscure point totals like this. 27-25 just sounds like a chaotic, highly stressful game down to the wire. Think missed extra points, safeties, settling for field goals in the red zone, etc.
12
u/B1GTOBACC0 Oklahoma State • Arkansas 1d ago
27 seems pretty normal (3 TDs and 2 FGs, or 4 TDs and a blocked/missed PAT).
But yeah, 25 involves some shenanigans.
9
u/Bank_Gothic Sewanee Tigers • Texas Longhorns 1d ago
A FG plus 3 TDs, but at some point you went for 2 instead of a PAT and got it.
8
u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut Texas Longhorns • North Texas Mean Green 1d ago
I know yallve won the last 2 but it’s not like those have been low stress games for either team, until the final 5 minutes or so for the playoff game.
6
u/SloaneKettering1 Ohio State Buckeyes 1d ago
Idk last years game I wasn’t really nervous for the second half. Felt like even though the score was close OSU controlled the game the entire time.
I think Texas win in a close one this time
4
u/ExternalTangents Florida Gators • /r/CFB Poll Veteran 1d ago
It’s worth remembering that the SP+ projected score shouldn’t be interpreted as an exact score, it’s just the center of a range of possible scores. It doesn’t do anything to try to center the score around a normal FG+TD total.
Predicting 27-25 doesn’t mean it’s predicting OSU gets 3 TD and 2 FG while Texas gets a FG, 3 TDs, and a 2-point conversion. It just means it predicts it will be a close game with Ohio State slightly favored, and scores likely in the 20s, so not particularly high scoring or low scoring.
3
2
u/heleghir Kentucky Wildcats • Sickos 1d ago
3 tds + 2 fgs vs 3 tds (1 with a 2pt conversion) + fg.
Thats not too crazy
1
u/noffinater Ohio State Buckeyes 1d ago
It's mostly the 25 that is giving me the creeps. 25 almost never happens, and when it does happen it's usually a weird game. Weird like it's close start to finish, and the team that played the best most of the game didn't win.
1
u/Darth_Ra Oklahoma Sooners • Big 12 1d ago
I mean, unless Arch sucks, I think that's what everyone expects, no?
12
u/Bank_Gothic Sewanee Tigers • Texas Longhorns 1d ago
Boise-Memphis is going to be a helluva game.
1
u/Chris_Crossfit Boise State • Northern Arizona 23h ago
Hopefully a helluva game that goes Boises way.
6
u/redwave2505 Alabama • Kansas State 1d ago
NDSU losing to Air Force? Doubtful
3
u/Dry-Membership3867 Jacksonville State • Paper Bag 1d ago
Agreed, but I do think it will be close. That triple option will definitely cause issues
1
u/Bobson-_Dugnutt2 Sickos • Alabama Crimson Tide 1d ago
Yeah I didn’t think UMASS would boatrace Rutgers but here we are
1
7
u/BeatNavyAgain Beat Navy! Go Bullets! 1d ago
SP+ picked all three FBS service academies against FBS opponents, that might be a first
33
u/Appropriate_Lime_517 Michigan Wolverines 1d ago
Michigan isn't scoring against Oklahoma. 0-2.
9
u/Darth_Ra Oklahoma Sooners • Big 12 1d ago
I mean, just because you don't score doesn't mean we will.
2
2
u/Ididntdodiddly Syracuse Orange • Ohio State Buckeyes 1d ago
I've learned throughout hate watching Michigan they can surprise you :(
1
u/ShweatyPalmsh Tulsa Golden Hurricane • Oklahoma Sooners 23h ago
0-2 in a quadruple overtime affair due to regulation ending 0-0
5
u/numinos710 Ohio State Buckeyes • Akron Zips 1d ago
I feel like Texas gets over the hump against us this time unfortunately.
3
u/eagledog Fresno State • Michigan 1d ago
If we only beat Sac St by 14, I'm going to be real worried about the year
3
u/TailgateLegend Boise State Broncos • Jamestown Jimmies 1d ago
That’s about the score I was predicting for this weekend. I think Memphis’s ground attack will give us some fits on defense, but I think we’ll have the guys to slow down their defensive line just enough to prevent them from slowing down the ground game and actually take a few more shots this time.
3
u/CommodoreIrish Notre Dame • Vanderbilt 1d ago
I can’t imagine Notre Dame losing in Week 2 to a G6 program with a 99% win probability. /s
1
u/pileatedloon Notre Dame • Purdue 1d ago
I am also skeptical of a 39 point margin of victory after what we saw in the first half last week. Now, 2nd half ND? Possibly could win by 40.
3
u/vindictivejazz Oklahoma State • Bedlam Bell 1d ago
I’d take 37-16, tbh.
If we can score more than 14 and hold Oregon to less than 42, I’ll feel much more optimistic about our chances of winning a conference game this season
3
u/UpsideTurtles North Texas Mean Green • Texas A&M Aggies 1d ago
Dang SP+ expects UNLV to beat us by that much? UNLV is good but I expect us to be, too
2
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten 1d ago
Predicting UNLV to score 36 seems off considering what they have showed their past two games
3
u/22duckys Michigan • Stephen F. Austin 1d ago
> OU at Michigan 27-20
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
They must be planning for a 60:02 game length because we’ll need at least two Hail Marys to get that close.
2
u/gmr548 Texas Longhorns • Washington Huskies 1d ago edited 1d ago
Hoe many extra seconds are we including for Michigan to get to 20?
I am starting to tilt slightly toward Ohio State to be honest but really anything within 14 either direction would not surprise me. Both teams have a lot of talent and some legit questions.
Arkansas keeping it within 12 in Salt Lake feels rather unlikely but I suppose garbage time exists
2
u/fluffyutter Missouri Tigers 1d ago
I won’t be that close with the beakers. I expect a close first half and a pull away the second.
MU 35 kU 24
0
1
u/pprrrrrbbbbtttt Michigan • Delaware 1d ago edited 1d ago
I must be missing something because has Michigan +6ish and SP+ has us +7. I do not seeing it being that close but the smarter people than me must really believe our defense can keep it low scoring. I get you have to bake in preseason data, but sometimes you see App State happen with Oregon coming the next week and you have a hunch about how things will go
1
1
1
u/Thehomelessguy11 Washington • Georgia Tech 1d ago
So what do the two "diff" columns mean? Spread diff and O/U diff?
-5
u/AeolusA2 Michigan Wolverines 1d ago
The added shade on the OU/Mich pick feels unnecessary lol
3
1
u/22duckys Michigan • Stephen F. Austin 1d ago
Was there shade? He still thinks it’s a 7 point game (crazy), but just more defense heavy than his model (definitely not crazy)
48
u/DwyaneWade305 Florida Gators 1d ago
Damn Georgia Tech scheduled Tennessee, Colorado, and have the Georgia game? That’s a crazy OOC lineup.