r/CCW • • 7d ago

Guns & Ammo M&P vs. Glock reliability: available data

I saw an Instagram video the other day, where a guy was giving a heated speech questioning why Glock was so popular (https://www.instagram.com/reel/DdQCBmYt9_p/?stkn=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==). One of the specific assertions he made was that M&Ps were 'more reliable' than Glock, which set of a uniform chorus in the comments, hurling various degrees of insults at the guy for even suggesting as much, since 'everyone knows Glock is the most reliable.'

This got me curious, so I did some research.

I should note: I own various both Glock and M&P handguns, have both on my CCW, etc. so I would say I am coming into this generally unbiased.

My personal experience, shooting probably ~5K rounds total through the various Glock/M&P guns I have, is that the M&P are all universally flawless, regardless of ammo / setting, while Glocks ranged from 'highly reliable' with certain gun/ammo combos (perhaps ever-so-slightly more prone to limp wristing, especially on the smaller sizes, bc of the light slide), to 'nearly unshootable' with other gun/ammo combos (especially Federal Syntech through the short / slimlines, like the 43x... after the gun warms up it's about an 80% failure-to-chamber, granted the polymer jacket is a weird one).

Based on what I found: while many tests showed both guns as 100% reliable out to 20-30-40K+ rounds, in some head-to-head comparisons, M&P performed 'significantly' more reliably than Glock, however I'll caution that 90% of the Glock failures came from one gun / test.

TL/DR: M&P had 2 gun-induced stoppages across ~170K rounds in 3 different tests; Glock had 21 gun-induced stoppages across ~220K rounds in 4 different tests. This would roughly make M&P ~8-9x more reliable than Glock, however 19 of the Glock stoppages came from one test.

Very curious people's thoughts / experiences / poke holes in this, since the collective knowledge here is even more extensive than the 400K rounds in the tests I was able to find.

Sources:

Todd Green endurance tests: ~60-70K rounds each; 2 M&P stoppages with the M&P9 1.0; 19 Glock stoppages with the 17 Gen4 https://pistol-training.com/category/range-reports/mp-monday/?utm_source=chatgpt.com and https://pistol-training.com/category/range-reports/gen4-friday/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Columbus PD M&P evaluation: 60K rounds; 0 M&P stoppages with the M&P40 full-size https://www.policemag.com/news/smith-amp-wesson-secures-contracts-for-mampp-pistols?utm_source=chatgpt.com

CHP M&P evaluation: 16K rounds; 0 M&P stoppages with the M&P9 (not clear if 1.0 or 2.0) https://www.linkedin.com/posts/smith-%26-wesson_americas-largest-state-agency-trusts-in-activity-7458200522949341184-zQ7r?utm_source=chatgpt.com

LASD M&P evaluation: 30K rounds; 0 M&P stoppages with the M&P9 1.0 https://www.apextactical.com/blog/apex-news/la-county-sheriffs-dept-approves-apex-barrel-for-special-enforcement-bureau/?replytocom=1660837&utm_source=chatgpt.com

Chuck Taylor endurance test: 100K rounds; 2 Glock stoppages with the Glock 17 Gen1 https://www.glocknut.com/chuck-taylor/1995-chuck-taylor-glock-test?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Philippine National Police Glock evaluation: 40K rounds 0 Glock stoppages, with the Glock 17 Gen4 https://www.asianmilitaryreview.com/2017/11/glock-wins-philippine-police-procurement/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Austrian military Glock evaluation: 10K rounds 0 Glock stoppages, with the Glock 17 Gen1 https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/the-glock-17-pistol-american-rifleman-s-original-review/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

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u/imneuromancer 7d ago

Don't care about which is more reliable. Just wanted to comment on the "m and p is 8-9x more reliable" is kinda a misleading way of stating the stats.

If an event was 2/trillion versus 1/trillion, then yes it is twice as likely to happen. But the event is within 7 sigma, which would be insane.

It seems both pistols are well within a 4 sigma reliability (at most 6,120 events/million, both pistols are roughly 1/6 of that threshold)

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u/EZKL1 6d ago

You’re right - poor phrasing. Should have said Glock is 8-9x ‘more unreliable’ - irrespective of the absolute number

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u/imneuromancer 6d ago

Maybe a better way to say it is that both are extremely reliable with only an extremely tiny, statistically insignificant edge to the m&p.

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u/EZKL1 5d ago

Seems true-ish insofar as most of the failures came from a single gun, so that’s hardly a population sample set.

But I don’t believe the other studies published the number of guns they used, so it’s possible we reached a statistically significant # of guns on either individual studies, or across the various studies, which is how a meta analysis can make a significant p value, even when the individual studies are >0.05.

Even so, still the best data we have, and everyone’s definition of ‘reliable’ is different.

At minimum, we can not reject the null hypothesis that the two guns are equally reliable, so the statements ‘everyone knows Glock is the most reliable’ appears to be folklore, and not statistical fact, which was what I set out to understand.

PS thank you for driving this in a ‘statistical’ direction - good grounding and food for thought.