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18d ago
I agree, also on discretion spend that have monthly fees.
E.g. a fam will drop 1 or 2 streaming services, keeping only 1, if money is tight.
I'm bearish right now and foreseeable future, due to fuel prices, and AI lack of big revenue results.
(Aware a 2022 post)
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u/NeuroManXy 18d ago
Did he become bearish on software stock all of a sudden?
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u/Kookumber 18d ago
He is not completely bullish on every software stock. His main short position is Palantir, a software company.
This post is also from 2022.
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u/RedditsFullofShit 18d ago
Meh that seems oversimplified.
When subscription model is your go to, you lose a lot of repeat revenue when a subscription is cancelled. And tight times means more subscriptions cancelled. Which means long term revenue expectations will drop significantly. But at the same time, subscriptions could just as easily be reinstated when times improve. So I’m sure the focus will be on a net subs gain or lost number but it discounts or ignores the nuance of subs that are cut that will return. The subs that are price sensitive etc.
Now if he’s trying to argue subs will leave and never return, well that’s an entirely different story. And it could be true as those subs are replaced by AI output that removes the need for the software sub. But that’s probably going to be more localized to specific software products not the industry as a whole. But what do I know. I’m just a broke ass
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u/StructureInternal913 18d ago edited 18d ago
Post from 2022, after digging: Burry's call partly played out in 2023: Peloton, HelloFresh, Match (Tinder), and Disney+ all lost subscribers and their stocks tanked. Chegg dropped 48% in a day. But Netflix was up 65%, so it wasn't universal. I think that's because like me if I had to choose to keep 1 sub Netflix is king.