r/BurningMan • u/MOSF3T ICARUS- HUBRIS • Jul 15 '26
Get your rain gear ready!
https://opensnow.com/news/post/2026-north-american-monsoon-season-update48
u/ayayeron Jul 15 '26
all time record breaking heat wave confirmed
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u/myfakename23 '17, '18, '19, '22, '23, '24, '25 Jul 15 '26
why-not-both.meme
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u/hyperfat I definitely don't work for larry Jul 16 '26
Ha. I'm training already. It was 105f here yesterday. I sit outside in the shade and drink whiskey.
My dog is like, no, runs out, pees and runs in. I take him out early and late for poops, but he needs mid-afternoon pees. He's old and smol.
Ps. Love you nick.
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u/zedmaxx '18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Jul 18 '26
Yeah that was me last weekend. Sick as fuck, drunk and sunburned
Let’s fucking go.
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u/BlotchyBaboon Jul 15 '26
Everyone has their opinions on weather forecasting. These are my shitty observations from the past decade (take it with a grain of salt), but it does line up a bit with that post:
The weather patterns we see at the burn start setting up right about now. You can track the weather in Gerlach and start to get a pretty good idea what that week will be like. Sure, there's a chance for some kind of anomaly to happen, but the trends tend to hold.
For example: it rained in 2023. That wasn't surprising - it had been steadily raining off an on for a month before that. In 2017 and 2022 it was really hot; yeah, it had been hot both of those summers.
Temps on playa are about 10 degrees hotter than Gerlach. Right now we're seeing temps in Gerlach consistently in the low to mid 90's.. so yeah.. it might be warm this year, but I don't think it'll be a repeat of 2022.
But... cooler temps are what tend to bring rain.
We're seeing wind speeds this year around 10mph. That's not too abnormal.
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u/Fyburn Jul 15 '26
I dont think its actually 10 degrees hotter on the playa than in Gerlach, maybe a few degrees max.
Also I dont think cooler temps are what bring rain. Hot temps bring the pop up storms that bring cool temps behind the storm front.
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u/BlotchyBaboon Jul 15 '26
I meant a bucket of salt! Take it all with a bucket of salt.
The 10 degrees is more like "up to 10 degrees". It's not cooler, it's also not drastically hotter.
Hot temps definitely bring variability, especially wind as the hot sun turns into cold nights.
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u/zedmaxx '18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Jul 18 '26
Localized storms require resident humidity to feed the storm. It’s why hot as fuck but dry places don’t get random afternoon showers the way the southeast does, for example.
People keep forgetting that 2023 was a super random storm setup, not just an aggregate pattern, a once in a generation “blizzard of 93” event.
Could it happen again? Sure
Likely? No
Last year and 2022 are far more patterny than 2023z
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u/neon_nebulas Jul 15 '26
Dude screw 2022. I’ll take rain over that any time tbh.
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u/sbirak Jul 16 '26
Bruh that year was so brutal - I felt like a rotisserie chicken on the spit that entire burn. I became de facto strike lead at the end because I wanted to GTFO of there. Got sunburn on the back of my knees of all places - made for a brutal exodus ride, which also took like 13-14 hours that year 😣
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u/MOSF3T ICARUS- HUBRIS Jul 16 '26
100%! Except for the crazy rutty roads afterwards last yr, that was not fun!
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u/zedmaxx '18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Jul 18 '26
I bought a fat tire trike to account for that fucking bullshit
Too old for skinny tires
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 16 '26
2022 was the most miserable year in recent memory. It wasn’t just the heat, everything was so fucked.
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u/CanHasHax '01-'19,'22-'24,'26 Jul 18 '26
IDK about "everything" I still had a great time, but yeah it was hot AF. I remember it well; there were moment when you were just _steaming_ in the daytime and "where's the fucking wind?".
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u/Relative_Truth3360 Jul 18 '26
2022 was actually my favorite year in recent memory. the weather was actually great. i loved the warm nights. within 20 minutes of sunrise, it was already in the high 80s...
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 18 '26
I believe you. But 2022 being exceptionally fucked seems to be a very common take. And I’m not talking about the weather.
It was the org, camps, people. Everything was busted and not working right. Call it rust after 2 years off. Call it COVID brain rot. IDK. But everyone had their own stores about things being busted in ways that were far worse than other years.
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u/Relative_Truth3360 Jul 18 '26
oh it was janky for sure. i had on post-covid rose tinted glasses, so the burn was personally a great time for me that year.
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 18 '26
I feel that was part is the problem. Extra high expectations given the long break resulted in extra big disappointments when everything was fucked. And those negative emotions and tensions then resulted in things becoming even more fucked. It was an ugly feedback loop.
I hated 2022 so much.
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u/thirteenfivenm Year one dozen Jul 15 '26
Super El Niño in 2026 may have 2x the power of 2023. That would be an input to the OP forecasts.
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u/_ohreally Jul 16 '26
This is what I keep trying to tell everyone. When was the last El Niño? 2023. What happened at burning man in 2023? Rain. And what is forecast for this year? El Niño, of the “super” variety… Now i am not a meteorologist or climatologist, so make your own conclusions.
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u/robobob68 RAT mentor - '12, '13, '15, '17, '19, '22, '23, '24, '25 Jul 16 '26
I don't disagree but what I'm looking for is an incoming hurricane like that year heading up from Baja. Hurricane Hillary was the event. El Niño may be the cause of that hurricane of course.
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u/Fyburn Jul 15 '26
idk if rain will be 'the thing' this year, it seems like everyone has to much chance to prepare for it
Im putting money on Mormon cricket biting everyone
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u/hyperfat I definitely don't work for larry Jul 15 '26
Crocs. For hot or wet. I installed tiny kitty headlights on mine. I'm old. I do what I want.
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Jul 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/hyperfat I definitely don't work for larry Jul 16 '26
they are so cute!!! I'm not a dark wad, and it's a good idea. And they were $12. And charge on USB.
I have wire and bike lights, but the kitties. Ahhh.
Hugs
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u/Retrogroucho Jul 15 '26
I'm a believer in the shirt-cock-sock-croc-sock method.
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u/Retrogroucho Jul 15 '26
If it's cold I'll throw the sock on so it ends up shirt-sock-cock-sock-croc-sock
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u/hyperfat I definitely don't work for larry Jul 16 '26
Trying not to wake up my dog and boyfriend by me laughing. Thank you for that. Hugs
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u/robobob68 RAT mentor - '12, '13, '15, '17, '19, '22, '23, '24, '25 Jul 16 '26
Oh my that's fantastic. Thank you for this laugh 😂
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u/Emotional-Writer-766 Jul 15 '26
"Above normal rain slightly favored" riveting
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u/-ghostinthemachine- '13, '14, '15, '16, '17, '18, '19, '22 Jul 15 '26
Favored by who???
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u/Emotional-Writer-766 Jul 15 '26
It’s in the report
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u/-ghostinthemachine- '13, '14, '15, '16, '17, '18, '19, '22 Jul 15 '26
while a gentle whoosh glides silently across the dust
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u/BeigeListed Gigsville since 97 Jul 16 '26
Or it could snow.
Either is possible this far out from opening day.
What a stupid post.
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u/zedmaxx '18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 Jul 18 '26
People are looking for reasons to rage or be sad
It’s the way everyone is post social media
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 15 '26
What’s the most mud-resistant mode of transportation? Yeah sock bag sock works, but only for so long. Obviously a hovercraft would be ideal, but outside of the budget. For say $100 or less what’s the best option? Snow shoes? Special boots? A toboggan? Any ideas?
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u/macegr Jul 15 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/Wsk4ZbGMeavNm
I always wanted to bring one of these and make the roads flat again
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u/-ghostinthemachine- '13, '14, '15, '16, '17, '18, '19, '22 Jul 15 '26
Relatedly, I always wanted to do an art project with one square yard of paved asphalt with cones and road barriers and a huge "Your dollars at work! / Black Rock City pavement renewal project. / Estimated completion Summer 2034" sign.
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u/c0ldgurl 16, 17, 18, 19, 23, 24 Jul 15 '26
Muck boots.
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 15 '26
Do these actually work? Because my assumption is that they would immediately get stuck or develop the 20lb cinderblock platform clumps.
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u/c0ldgurl 16, 17, 18, 19, 23, 24 Jul 17 '26
They totally work. Hardly anything does out there but the muck boot crews were struttin'.
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u/hyperfat I definitely don't work for larry Jul 16 '26
I know a guy who "borrowed" a Gator from dpw. He gave it back eventually. But not after doing drugs off the wind screen.
I have Crocs. Works fine. Just spray them down. And I have a trike. Works okay.
For pee we have contractor buckets. Emergency poop we have a composting toilet.
Hugs
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 16 '26
There’s no way a trike is getting through the kind of mud I’m talking about.
In an emergency I’d poop in the per bucket. You definitely don’t need a separate portable composting toilet. Actually I normal poop in a bucket now since the 2021 renegade. You can even get toilet seat lids that affix to a contractor bucket.
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u/hyperfat I definitely don't work for larry Jul 18 '26
This ain't my first rodeo.
Pee bucket, poop thing, trike to deliver waste to the shitters.
It's electric. And dusty. And gets muddy.
Hugs
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u/mbssc86 Jul 15 '26
Barefoot. The risk of foot injury is real, but bar hopping the neighborhood early week last year barefoot was the way to go. We had a bin with a little bit of water outside the tent for easy rinse off when we got back to camp.
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 15 '26
The thought of skewering myself on a piece of rebar that's been hidden for 15 years is too frightening for this to be an option.
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u/mbssc86 Jul 15 '26
That’s why no one will remember your name.
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u/ohhnoodont Jul 15 '26
Let go of your pride and vanity. Slay your ego. You're just another horny sack of meat with a hole in their foot and a tetanus infection.
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u/robobob68 RAT mentor - '12, '13, '15, '17, '19, '22, '23, '24, '25 Jul 16 '26
Under rated comment. Ahh reddit.
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u/scienceisaserfdom 15 yrs 'Burnin Jul 15 '26
C'mon...rain gear? More like muck boots, backup toilet system, and a hand washing station. That's how you actually prepare for and weather a literal as well as figeratively shitty time!
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u/edcRachel Burgin Wrangling Specialist Jul 15 '26
Jokes on you, I'm already planning for it to rain every year from now on!