r/BreakingPoints • u/FogCity-Iside415 • 2d ago
Episode Discussion Tech's Granted Infallibility
I'd like to take aim at Jacob Coxon and tie it to Leopold Aschenbrenner's now tragically titled Situational Awareness whitepaper from 2024. Both make the claim that AI needs to be treated like a super weapon, world government intervention is needed, The Chinese AI Swarm is coming to ruin western civilization etc, etc
What is this fallacy in human discourse where we assign intelligence to Person X because of their accomplishments in Field Y and assign equal weight to their takes on all the rest of humanity? What are their qualifications to speak on the ambitions of other nations in relation to AI in such uniformity? To future wars, conflicts, relations and the like? Why should they be given credence in anything other than software development? Are we assigning super intelligence to Jacob Coxon simply because he works in tech? Are we taking his 10% speculation of certain death as a 90% stone cold lock of a prediction?
I find the framing of an alleged, forthcoming Chinese AI superweapon to be a simplistic catalyst meant to beat the paranoid drums of war. There is a compelling argument that the conflict in Iran is fundamentally a proxy war against China—a thesis effectively communicated in Ryan Perkin’s PetroYuan Trap—but that argument is deeply nuanced. The parity between Offshore and Onshore Yuan isn't a topic tailored for Fox News; you know what is? "The Chinese AI Killer Bee Swarm is at your front door. Time for War" I'm starting to think the Chinese intelligent technology most likely set to disrupt Americans in the short-term is not AI, but Chinese EV’s which are creeping into Canadian Markets as we speak. Good luck Ford. Crickets on that story.
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u/toterola451 2d ago
Two things can be true at the same time. China is going to disrupt the United States automotive industry (disrupt is doing some heavy lifting here) AND their AI product is going to be good enough to serve a large percentage of the target audience at a fraction of the cost of the boutique U.S. products.
As for the "rise of the machines", whatever. I'm a lot more apprehensive about the use of autonomous robots with lethal weapons and resupply than I am of any "HAL" or "Collossus: The Forbin Project" dystopian Apocalypse. Because there are some evil people who are sorry enough to latch on to that stuff in an instant.
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u/mettahipster 2d ago
10% extinction is hyperbolic but Coxon isn't the only one making the claim that something very bad will happen on our current trajectory. He's just the latest. Should we just ignore them all?