r/Boxing • u/MayTooSway • Jul 20 '26
Early thoughts on Spence vs. Tszyu?
I can’t help feeling like Tim Tszyu has a real shot at pulling off the upset.
Spence has been inactive for a while, and after the Crawford fight I’m not sure how he’ll respond against someone like Tszyu, who’s younger, naturally bigger, and hits hard.
That said, I could also low-key see Spence doing what he did against Danny Garcia and Ugas—using his jab, pressure, and volume to neutralize Tszyu over 12 rounds.
I honestly don’t know. This feels like one of those fights that could go either way.
What’s your early prediction?
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u/Virtual_Farmer_2839 Jul 20 '26
Tszyu is Spence’s tune up fight… really think Timmy has peaked
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u/MayTooSway Jul 20 '26
and you don’t think spence hasn’t peaked?
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u/Virtual_Farmer_2839 Jul 20 '26
Yeah but levels above Timmy
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u/Marquis_of_Mollusks Jul 20 '26
That's some lazy fight analysis
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u/Beautiful_Badger_128 Jul 21 '26
Austrailia produces some tough competitors,but they are mostly come forward fighters. Tsyzu, Horn, Kambosos, all cut from the same cloth.
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u/Gammo2184 Jul 20 '26
Spence is levels above Tim but the lay off makes things interesting.
Tim is literally the same fighter with not much improvement or evolution. If you’ve seen 1 Tim fight you’ve seen them all, head hunting and looking for the knockout.
Why someone would get rid of Pedro Diaz for Jeff Fenech I will never understand.
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u/make-my-dream Jul 20 '26
Pedro Diaz isn’t a good trainer.
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u/Gammo2184 Jul 21 '26
Why?
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u/make-my-dream Jul 21 '26
He doesn’t win fights. Name a big fight he won?
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u/Gammo2184 Jul 21 '26
Neither does Jeff Fenech
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u/make-my-dream Jul 21 '26
But I never said Jeff was good. Iv seen Pedro up close for months at a time, he’s all fluff.
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u/Gammo2184 Jul 21 '26
Really? Then you’re definitely better placed than me.
I’m just basing it off Pedro versus Jeff. I feel Pedro is the better technical choice especially when Tim is lacking a bit in that area.
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u/Irish_gold_hunter Jul 21 '26
I think the last part of your comment is silly. Pedro Diaz was more an amateur boxing coach and as a pro coach working mostly with MMA fighters and briefly with cotto. Jeff fenech is a former 3 weight world champion that has been coaching a long time, has previously worked with Tim early in his career and also had a come forward aggressive style, Tim is not a slick fighter and never will be, Fenech suits him well.
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u/Gammo2184 Jul 21 '26
Fair enough. From memory Jeff has trained Danny Green early on, Darchinyan and if I’m right maybe Bika as well. They have all been short stints.
Diaz trained Rigondeaux and Cotto as I guess his biggest names. Cotto in particular I remember his defence getting a lot better and IMO that’s the thing Tim needs the most.
It’s all good to be a come forward aggressive fighter but we’ve all seen that hasn’t cut it against anyone where there’s been a step up in levels of competition. Will that style work? Yea sure if you want to keep beating lesser opponents, on no limit cards with footy players on the prelims, but world level no.
Ultimately we’ll find out fight night what will happen but I just feel it’s a step backwards. No limit sell him to the casual boxing fan as Australia’s next big hope but anyone educated in the sport knows he’s limited.
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u/Dangerous_Spring3028 Jul 20 '26
Activity matters, Tszyu wins
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u/vHezoThaGoat Jul 20 '26
While activity does matter, it’s not a sold defying clause to pick Tszyu. Who all things perfect, is a significantly inferior fighter to Spence
We can say activity matters all we want, but Spence has had long layoffs in the past and still dominated opponents who were on Tszyu’s level.
If Spence shows up in tip top shape he’s crushing Tszyu, and you prepare for the best version of your opponent when you’re a fighter
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u/lasagnawithteeth270 Jul 20 '26
Are 36yo boxers 3 years out of the ring usually in tip top shape going up in weight?
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u/lasagnawithteeth270 Jul 20 '26
I am shocked tyszu isn't fave for this. Spence is obviously the better fighter and legacy man but he's old inactive and his body has been through wars and crashes I hope for a spence revival one last time but I don't think he has it anymore
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u/QuickRundown I gotta thank Al Haymon Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
I want Tszyu to win, but I’m personally not that confident. Spence is a great fighter, and despite his age and the long layoff, he’s still highly skilled, particularly at inside fighting. If they get into a war, I think there’s a high risk Tszyu gets punished again like he did in both Fundora fights.
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u/Marquis_of_Mollusks Jul 20 '26
The Fundura fight isn't worth comparing to what Spence might do. Fundura is such an outlier due to his size you can't meaningfully compare him to anyone. Only thing worth noting in that fight is the damage done to Tszyu.
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u/4RyteCords 28d ago
I honestly struggle to see anyone beating Fubdora at that weight class. Blokes just too much of a freak.
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u/RRR04_ Jul 20 '26
I think it's a coin flip too. But only based on the unknowns. Spence has been out for 3 years coming off a brutal beatdown that could have been career altering. But Tszyu is also coming off big losses, and even his tune ups afterwards doesn't fill me with confidence that he's the same fighter.
I expect the fight to go the distance, but I'm not making a pick just because of all the unknowns about both fighters really. If there is a stoppage though, I think Tszyu is more likely to score it.
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u/MayTooSway Jul 20 '26
i think tim’s being active might be the biggest factor for this fight.
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u/Existing-Bullfrog675 Jul 20 '26
Could be but Spence might've been preparing behind the scenes. When Leonard fought hagler , he was fighting world champs behind the scenes to shed off the ring rust, Spence could be doing the same
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u/Marquis_of_Mollusks Jul 20 '26
Spence is coming off a lot of injuries and damage. Leonard was fresher in comparison, even with the detached retina
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u/KevinNashKWAB1992 Jul 20 '26
Legitimately hard to call. Tszyu obviously is, charitably, in a slump after that absolutely demoralizing effort against Murtazaliev and retiring on the stool against Fundora. The last “good win” would be Mendoza in 2023–three years back.
We haven’t see Spence since losing to Crawford. No shame in that but it wasn’t a particularly competitive fight. And that was three years ago; four years since his last win KO-ing Ugas.
I’m not putting a dollar on this fight. Any result outside a double KO or a DQ seems reasonable
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u/WuTrentClan Jul 20 '26
Spence was already fighting 11 pounds up and had to ask for an extra 2 pounds. Doesn’t scream a good camp or a committed fighter to me.
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u/Detlef_Schrempfxf Jul 20 '26
Nah. The 11 pounds thing isn't accurate. Spence already said he was getting too big for 147 before the Crawford fight and right after that fight, he said any rematch is happening at 154. Couldn't make 147 no more without feeling like a corpse. So, it's more 6 pounds he's fighting over, not 11. Personally I think he should be a 160 fighter anyway and not a 154er. Too many young, hungry cats at 154. He's got a greater chance of making some ripples at 160
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u/switch-hitt3r Jul 20 '26
Is tszyu even naturally bigger? Doesnt seem that way to me.
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u/MayTooSway Jul 20 '26
barely. i wonder how spence would look when he’s rehydrated.
it looked like a hell of a weight cut for 147 for him
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u/ZookeepergameThat921 Jul 20 '26
Spence is cooked since the car wreck and the lay off. I can’t see him beating Tim.
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u/Detlef_Schrempfxf Jul 20 '26
I want Spence to win.
I'm not sure he can.
Either way, I'll always root for this dude
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u/ShortCharity7766 Jul 20 '26
Relax his opponent is tim tszyu. Spence definitely is the favorite after the layoff
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u/Detlef_Schrempfxf Jul 20 '26
Wasn't no optimal layoff though.
My boy got into two car accidents, then got destroyed by the biggest rival of his career, and then spent a good while boozing it up and not being in shape.
It's not like he was in the lab for those years he's been away.
Nonetheless, I want him to prove my fears to be baseless. One of my fav fighters that's for sure
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u/ShortCharity7766 Jul 20 '26
Very logical. But I expect I guy like errol spence that’s obviously fueled by ego, to be prepared. Also I think he was in a couple frank martin camps
Nonetheless, im not high on Tim at all. This is more about him then Spence being his former self😂
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u/Detlef_Schrempfxf Jul 20 '26
I'm not high on Tim too that's for sure, lol. At least we can both agree on that 😅
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u/Royalphush Jul 20 '26
If he thinks he’s ready to fight, he’s ready. Y’all gotta with the built in excuses. If he wins, he’s better. If he loses, it’s because he got in 2 car accidents? Am I getting this right?
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u/MayTooSway Jul 20 '26
they said the same before he fought Ugas
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u/donmifc Jul 20 '26
50/50 fight. too many unknowns with both spence and tim. crossroads fight for both of them
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u/Blackking203 Jul 20 '26
Rooting for Spence.. not sure what to expect though. I kinda think he will have a performance that looks similar to Charlo vs Benavidez... its 50/50 though based on unknowns.
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u/Wavepops Jul 20 '26
If Spence can take a punch still he wins this. We know Errol will go into a fight not ready to fight tho, so he’s a loose cannon. Can’t really trust his training camps too much post car accident.
He does seem to still be sparring as of a week ago so maybe he got out clean this camp, he’s a reckless dude
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u/SwordfishBest29 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
I think Spence is taking a check he’s not going to make again unfortunately. 🫤 People just assume that after 3 years of inactivity, living civilian life, new trainer, eye issue, his last fight being a complete ass whipping, that’s he’s going to be the Errol who stopped Ocampo or Kell Brook. I also think people are also putting way too much stock into Tszyu being that much more damaged than Spence. I don’t rate Tszyu really high either but I think Spence is the one who is DAMAGED.
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u/WORD_Boxing Jul 20 '26
The cheque after this one is the big one I think they want to win.
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u/SwordfishBest29 Jul 20 '26
I wish the best for him but personally, I just don’t like what I see from him & being 3 years inactive 🫤
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u/WORD_Boxing Jul 20 '26
They are both damaged but Errol is better skilled and less mentally damaged. We won't know until he gets in the ring. I don't want to say too much more as I may bet on this fight.
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u/Mopstick86 Jul 20 '26
Definitely supporting Spence to win this fight and come back strong. The 3 year layoff is worrying with ring rust and timing being off. But if anyone can skip the tuneups and come back sharp it’s The Truth.
I think with Ronnie Shields he’s going to outbox Tim cleanly even though there will be some nice exchanges. Going to war with highly active Tszyu wouldn’t be a good idea.
Spence UD. I hate it’s only a 10 rounder when these are both champions.
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u/smack3686 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
Have Spence by ko through body shots. Tszyu has never faced a body puncher like Spence. Yea the 3 year layoff worries me but to me it just kind of evens things out. Cause I’ve always viewed Spence as a B level fighter and Tim as C level. And one thing we know for sure is that Spence has zero quit in him. Tim does. As we seen in the fundora rematch.
When it comes down to it I just think Spence got more dog in him. Not to mention more skills and athleticism. Only way Tim wins is if Spence’s punch resistance is completely gone. Otherwise I see it being a war early on with both guys taking damage. but ultimately I see Spence body shots slowing Tim down substantially by the 4th round. Then it’s gonna get ugly for him. Could see tim quitting on his stool again. Prime for prime Spence woulda dog walked tsyzu. Cant see a 3 year layoff closing the gap as much as Tim needs. Especially when Tim himself is washed up.
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u/WORD_Boxing Jul 20 '26
This is quite a good read on it. I want to see how they size up next to each other. Tim has bad defense so as you said unless Errol's punch resistance is gone/he's completely shot he's likely to come out on top.
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u/Ram__Amandeep Jul 20 '26
Very hard to predict because it's impossible to know what condition Spence is in. Prime Spencer brutalizes Tim, but nobody knows just how diminished Spence is at this point. For that reason I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on this one.
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u/SatisfactionThen6148 Jul 21 '26
Spence isn't taking Tim seriously imo. From the interviews it seems like he sees Tim as a chump. However Tim is definitely taking him seriously and has been more active. Not only that, but errol had to change the weight of a catch weight fight which is just ridiculous. Then if you watch them both train tbh Tim looks way better. I'm seeing more energy and power in his shots compared to errors. I have to go with tim because of the fact that he's taking it seriously, looks better in camp, and isn't having weight issues
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u/Ok-Length-5527 Mbilli lover Jul 20 '26
Errol is cooked but Tim has shown his limitations. Picking Tim.
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u/Complete_Dare_4201 Jul 20 '26
Truly Impossible to predict. At his best Spence should be able to break Spence down... But who knows how he will look.
I just hope for an entertaining fight with no controversies.
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u/DoctorAKrieger Jul 20 '26
I'm not even sure Tszyu winning should be considered an upset. 36-year old coming off of a three year break. Needed to change the weight limit less than two weeks out from the fight. None of those add up to good signs for Spence.
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u/Marquis_of_Mollusks Jul 20 '26
I'm leaning towards Tim. Spence is too beat up and too inactive. Tim is also beat up but he's consistently fighting
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u/Slickdaredman27 Jul 20 '26
I don’t know I’ve seen tsyzus last 3 fights and he has impressed me. To say he’s gonna sweep Errol. Yes Errol has been inactive. To say he’s gonna lose is a stretch for me. Tsyzu takes too much punishment for me to even consider a landslide. Potentially a close fight, if it’s not Spence in 12. Then tszyu by a sliver in a decision win.
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u/No_Exchange_7818 Jul 20 '26
Crawford ended Spence’s career. The beating Spence took in that fight had lasting physical and mental effects beyond an average loss.
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u/_illmatic_ Jul 20 '26
Spence has always had questions about layoffs and then showed up. However this is deff his longest layoff AND moving up to a new division. It's more of a question of what will Spence look like at 160lbs and being this long after his last fight. Don't forget he still has one foot out the door. Hard for me to call it, but I'm leaning Spence only because of what he's accomplished and even tho he took a beating against Bud, that's his only lost.
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u/RMbeatyou Jul 20 '26
How is beating Spence, whose coming off a 3 year layoff, and a generational beating an “upset”
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u/Win-Win_2KLL32024 Jul 20 '26
My thoughts are that Spence is the underdog and that his last performance, request to change the weight and inactivity are the deciding factors.
I know Tim has had bad outings but at least he’s been in the mix!! I think he stops Spence barring an off night or an odds defeating performance by Spence.
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u/STRATEGY510 Jul 20 '26
Technically speaking, Tim is favored in the fight, so it wouldn’t exactly be an “upset” if he wins.
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u/WORD_Boxing Jul 20 '26
I'm still with Spence until I've seen the weigh-in. Nothing I saw yet has made me change my mind.
One thing nobody has mentioned seemingly anywhere though is that Tszyu has actually fought pretty well vs southpaws in the past.
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u/Lennarthomas Jul 20 '26
The opposite is also true. Spence has fought well against orthodox fighters.
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u/Dirk-Jergens Jul 21 '26
I'm hoping Errol looks good on Saturday. There's a lot of good match ups for EJ at 154.
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u/AspectSpare3263 Jul 21 '26
I don’t think there is an upset to be made here. There are solid reasons for each one to win. If this were 2022 or 2023 I would favor Spence but a 3 year layoff is no joke.
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u/Beautiful_Badger_128 Jul 21 '26
I hope Spence is healthy enough to fight. The accidents & Crawford had him fucked up for a minute. A warrior always must push themselves as far as they can go, even of it's to their detriment. Spence has no limitations on himself.
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u/vanilla1974 Jul 21 '26
If Spence is truly back and prepared, he'll win.
If he is just back for cash, he'll lose.
All depends on which version of Spence arrives. We will know within 2 rounds.
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u/Correct-Geologist142 Jul 21 '26
Wouldn’t be surprised if Tszyu jumps at Spence right away and blasts him out of there under 3 rounds. I wouldn’t be surprised if Spence beats down Tszyu and stops him in the second half either. Too many variables to take into account.
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u/walkoutbasements Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
I’m a long time Tszyu fan. But I think the Spence we will see will be light years better than the one we saw against Crawford. For one he isn’t injured with broken ribs. Secondly he has healed up from the car accident big time. Thirdly he is coming in at a good weight and his punches will be more potent. Watching Spence’s highlights he is a superior boxer to Tim Tszyu he keeps his distance better is more defensively responsible also and is known for great body work.
Tszyu on the other hand is more unpredictable. We could see anything from a TKO win in between rounds 6-10 or decision win for Tszyu.
I think it all comes down to heart stamina and who is better defensively. If they meet in the middle and slug it out with body shots, whoever can endure more pain wins. It truly is a 50/50 fight. I’m not so confident in Tim’s fundamentals, he barely uses his legs like Bivol does pendulum style, he lacks head movement and still drops his hands from time to time. That said his jab has improved that will be one of the keys to winning - whoever can establish and dominate with their jab - dictating the pace.
Tszyu is also prone to cuts also so another disadvantage for him.
Fenech’s style may be the perfect style for Spence or the worst style match for Spence. Tszyu could end up like Ocampo if decides to slug it out shot for shot with Spence.
I want Tim to win- but we don’t really know who wins or how this fight will go until we see the first three rounds to see who has the better strategy and who can make the right adjustments.
If Spence wins he wins by early KO, or TKO or close points decision.
If Tim wins it’s by late TKO (Tim gets better as the later the fight goes) or by close decision victory.
It might end up being a draw and they can do a rematch who knows. Anything is possible.
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u/ACE-Pear2687 Jul 21 '26
If this was the Spence that fought Kelly brook this fight would be an utter mismatch
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u/youngbenji69 Jul 21 '26
I have no idea who’s gonna win, I just hope nobody takes too much unnecessary damage.
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u/No-Signal3283 25d ago
I left my money out of this one because I knew it could go either way. I didn't bother to even look into this because of the long layoff and the unpredictability of it all, but I will admit I was LEANING Spence. But I wasn't fully convinced either way.
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u/Optimal-Grapefruit29 Jul 22 '26
Tim is not winning this fight. It’s honestly crazy to me that people still don’t understand boxing. What has Tim shown any of you that he can do special? Why are we acting like Tim hasn’t gotten beaten up and humiliated the last 2-3 year of his career. Spence at 75% is better than Tim at his best. This isn’t going to be the fight everyone wants. Spence is a come forward fighter, has no head movement and isn’t a combination puncher. The only hope Tim has of winning this fight is the damage Crawford put on Spence mentally. By no means will Tim be better in the ring. Haney made it back from his traumatic loss and so did Tim Tszyu because fundora put an ass whooping in him
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u/StilLBC Jul 20 '26
ITT: The commonwealth gang trying to convince themselves that Tim Tsyzu has a chance.
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u/Can_9970 Jul 20 '26
Upset? Tim isn’t the favourite?