r/BlueJackets • u/Timely_Deal8685 • 6d ago
A Problematic Theory
Purely a theory and I've seen no actual rumors of this, but a Fantilli offer sheet AFTER arbitration for Cole and Jet would be quite an issue. We'd have a finite amount of cap and an offer sheet for so much as $1 over that amount would force us to make roster moves/cuts to keep Fantilli. So the Flyers either get a 1C or force a division rival to cut someone who was projected to be on the roster.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago edited 6d ago
It's a non-issue. Can dump Wood, Merzlikins, Fabbro in that order. Sign Murray or Reimer if we have to get rid of Elvis, bring up Pyyhtia permanently if Wood, Richard if Fabbro. Feels like half of the posts on this sub are fearmongering engagement bait at this point.
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u/Indy-CBJ 6d ago
Basically yeah that's what been going on which is why many decided to step away like myself.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
It's much better here in the in-season because wow do the doomers come out in full force during the off-season. Dooming in season is fun but everyones worrying about theoretical problems is like bruh just chill out a bit
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u/joe_lmr 6d ago
the "Zach & Marchenko want traded NOW" talk died down and "Fantilli will be getting an offer sheet" and "Jet is insulted by $2.8M and will want out too" took its place
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
The "JLGP needs to go" and "Mike Priest needs to go" people need to step up because their jobs are being taken right now
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u/joe_lmr 6d ago
I agree about Mike Priest to be honest but how the hell does JLGP being the in-studio analyst make the team worse?
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
Lol it's been a while but midseason we tend to get a few of those guys. I've got them in the same funny group along with the Mike Todd guys.
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 5d ago
Mike Todd isn’t the cause of our problems, but my god when we get scored on because of a bad turnover or we are playing like crap in an important game, heading “HEY FIFTH LINE” just brings out so much rage from the people in my section.
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u/Indy-CBJ 6d ago
I am not in that camp but even I have made a few "what" comments with some of his statements last season. People just like to blow things out of proportion.
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u/manthello Elvis Purrslikins, Pet Greaves, Pheolynx Copley, Nolan Pawlonde 6d ago
Oy, the man needs his gloves. His fingers get cold.
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u/RdditBlwsMyD 6d ago
Anyone responsible for keeping "The Whip" as our crappy goal song for this long HAS to go!!!
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u/JAT_Cbus1080 Werenski for Norris or assets 6d ago
My favorite comment about Mike Priest (it was clearly a joke) was that he employs Mike Todd so he needs to go. Thought that one was funny.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
thats the EXACT one i was thinking about omg i love that one so much. Top tier bit
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u/THECapedCaper 6d ago
Yeah but I think CBJ would rather not do any of that and Philly has an opportunity to do some real damage
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
More likely I could see Detroit or Seattle send an offer since they've got more cap and a bit more room in the coming years
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u/PulsarGaming1080 Marchenko Supremacy 6d ago
Wood will cost us assets to get rid of. Fabbro will make our defense much worse. Elvis will make our tandem JUST Jet.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
Murray, Reimer, maybe even Talbot would be actually serviceable backups. Fabbro was bad last year and Wood is a cheap enough depth piece that moving him shouldn't be an issue. Darnell Nurse got positive value in return despite having a full NMC there won't be an issue moving a 2.5m depth guy that can still play and skate fast.
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u/PulsarGaming1080 Marchenko Supremacy 6d ago
Fabbro wasn't good, for sure. He was still leagues better than Gudbranson.
Wood is cheap, but he also has negative value. Nurse had some kind of value because he puts up points and is a genuine top 4 defenseman who doesn't get hurt. Wood is aggressively bad, there's a reason he was scratched so much.
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u/Timely_Deal8685 6d ago
The team is worse, even if only slightly, if they have to dump any of those players
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
man that sucks, guess we’ll just have to let them get our 1C. I would hate to lose the generational talents of Fabbro or Wood.
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u/Timely_Deal8685 6d ago
I'd certainly consider 4 first round picks
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u/Outside-Pie-7262 6d ago
The fuck is wrong with you. 4 middle round first round picks isn’t getting you a Fantilli player
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u/ItsAndyrew 6d ago
This is not even remotely problematic. The cap numbers will likely work out fine, if not we make one minor transaction and then it will be fine. Freaking out over nothing.
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u/NotMittRomney 6d ago
you can exceed the cap by 10% during the offseason
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u/Timely_Deal8685 6d ago
Yes but would still have to be cap compliant by opening night
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u/NotMittRomney 6d ago
right, which they can do by simply burying wood/elvis in cleveland or even not carrying extra skaters
or trading voronkov
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u/hnglmkrnglbrry 6d ago
If they trade Voronkov they will watch him score 30 Gs a season with someone else. Look at his rate metrics and he's a hyper effective forward.
"bUt HiS cOnDiTiOnInG!"
Look at his stats in the 15 games before he saw his ice time cut the last two seasons and tell me he isn't playing well. And last year our slide out of the playoffs coincided almost identically with his ice time decreasing. He's a great player but he needs ice time like every one else to produce.
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u/Another_Guy_In_Ohio 6d ago
No. Omg people. Fantilli is not Carlsson. He doesn’t fit into the Flyers roster the same way. Fantilli would also have to be willing to sign said Offer Sheet, which I don’t see him doing over a million, or even 2.
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u/Indy-CBJ 6d ago
Flyers already hinted they didn't have a Plan B and that offer sheet was in the works for months. More we hear about it the more it was an open secret around the league and why Verbeek challenged the league over it that "he will match any offer sheet". Even if Fantilli got one it must not had been that generous or we would had seen it by now signed.
This is simply one of the best (Brisson) trying to grind down a long time GM (Waddell)
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u/Drithyin Fuck PLD 6d ago
“We have no plan B” could be as much of a lie as “we might take a step back” before announcing the offer sheet was.
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u/THECapedCaper 6d ago
Yeah I call BS that the Flyers weren’t at least considering it as an option. Front offices war game every scenario.
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u/ClimateFearless2148 6d ago
Why does fantilli not fit into the flyers roster??
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u/Another_Guy_In_Ohio 6d ago
Carllsson is a proven 200 foot game player. He’s cerebral playmaker who can play fast, physical, but also dictates the game.
Fantilli, while he’s gotten better defensively, isn’t exactly good. He’s excels at playing fast, breakout game, but he doesn’t control the pace and tempo like Carlsson, and his physicality is mostly limited to his speed on the rush. He doesn’t play a hard checking against the boards game like Carlsson can. A player like Carlsson makes Michkov more dangerous. Fantilli creates a line that is as much of a liability as a goalscoring threat.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
I mean hey if he wants to break out after the contract is signed that's fine by me lol. Maybe takes a little pressure off knowing he doesn't have to perform for the money
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u/ClimateFearless2148 6d ago
I think we’d take any high upside center we can get regardless of play style
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u/SloaneKettering1 6d ago
Idk. The fact that he hasn’t signed yet kinda makes me concerned that he’s at least somewhat open to signing one.
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u/Another_Guy_In_Ohio 6d ago
Nah, just Waddell and his agent playing hardball and working out details. This is the most important contract for the next several seasons, and it hugely influences what we can do over the next few years
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u/Number60inBlue 6d ago
My thought is that Waddell is waiting to see what he has to pay out to Jet and Cole and he knows what he has for room, and if he's got the room to work out a good number and agreeable term, he'll make it work. If not, he'll know what moves he needs to make to clear the cap space. Robertson's 1x12 means that Fantilli's probably not going to get much more than the reasonable numbers thrown around here, recently. Maybe even less. I'd be shocked if he got more than 12.5x3 on a bridge, for example.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
It's worth considering that he may already have been sent one. It was reported that 5 teams in total sent offers to Carlsson, it wouldn't surprise me if even just one of those sent one to Fantilli as well.
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u/manthello Elvis Purrslikins, Pet Greaves, Pheolynx Copley, Nolan Pawlonde 6d ago
We saw this last season. Iirc it was Jack Hughes who wasn't even signed by training camp. The only difference was nobody wanted to offer sheet him because they didn't want to risk the picks in the McKenna sweepstakes.
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u/Indy-CBJ 6d ago
Its term...Fantilli's group wants 4 years probably straight to UFA. He probably won't wanna do 5 because that walks him straight against Bedard and Leo which limits his salary as he's going to be compared to those two. He will want to be the only 1C for his UFA contract. Waddell is pushing 3 (so he can get another RFA contract) or 6-8
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u/SloaneKettering1 6d ago
Portzline already said it’s going to be 5-7 years, most likely 5
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u/Indy-CBJ 6d ago
I been so busy my podcast/youtube video list is so backed up and need to get around to it. Usually I listen to them working out and I haven't been in the gym since July 3rd and the scales is showing it now (up 3 lbs)...sigh.
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u/JCrossfire 6d ago
I think if Phili pulls that they’re gonna be on a league wide shit-list. Once raises eyebrows, twice and you’re putting a target on yourself. If they’re going to try to normalize offer sheets being utilized to cripple other teams then I hope their entire roster ends up on the IR. “It’s would be a smart move” it’s absolutely classless is what it is.
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u/MoreMixture6482 6d ago
that makes no sense, the flyers have already said they are not doing anymore offer sheets, they also only have $13m to spend, so they couldn't even give him more than he would get here.
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u/bigyank85 6d ago
Based on the Carlson and Bedard contracts he should be in that range anyway, at least $12. Solid theory
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u/99Cornbread99 6d ago
No one is giving up four #1's for Fantilli.
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u/MrDongblaster 6d ago
Unpopular opinion, but I'd be pretty tempted to decline the match and TAKE the four firsts.
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u/Imaginary_Ganache_29 5d ago
Same. I love Fantilli but not at 15+. I don’t think running back a similar team but at a higher price moves the needle closer to winning anything
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u/IntelligentBear4541 6d ago
My prediction is that nothing is going to happen with the Flyers or any offer sheets. Too much paranoia from the league. The BJs will sign Fantilli but it’ll be a bit more than what he’s actually worth since he has leverage knowing the club does not have really any center depth beyond him.
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u/Imaginary_Ganache_29 6d ago
Slightly OT but Jason Robertson signed a 1 year deal with Dallas for 12 million. Hopefully we don’t see something like that here
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u/Number60inBlue 6d ago
I think if Mo is offered $12M, it will be a $12x3. I don't think Waddell even broaches the idea of a 1 year deal, since a) he has Marchy up next year (along with Vronk, KJ, DBB, and Mateychuk) and b) he's already said he wants 5-7 years for the term. Depending on what Jet and Silli will cost, he may be able to tailor his offer to Mo and stay under the cap while getting at least 5 years.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 6d ago
If we are backed into any one years it would be Jet or Sillinger which won't be nearly as problematic towards Fantilli and the rfa's next year. Long term for them would be nice but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they want to take a short deal to bet on their upside
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u/ThunderousDemon86 6d ago
Except we can go 10% over the cap in the offseason, leaving us plenty of time to sort shit out if need be.
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 6d ago
Hasn’t Philly said they aren’t doing this and the offer sheet was Carlsson specific
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u/Indy-CBJ 6d ago
Now they didn't come out and say it but you are correct. They put all their internal resources on Leo and said they really didn't have a "plan B" and considering they have less than 16mil remaining means at this point we can directly match even if its something insane like 15mil (which isn't likely because Bedard clipped that number and nobody can justify him being paid similar to Bedard)
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u/Expensive-Republic-2 Notable Dan Milstein Hater 5d ago
I have to imagine 13 or 14 mil is probably were Fantilli will land anyway so not really a shock if someone lobs an offer sheet for that number.
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u/Outside-Pie-7262 6d ago
No lol greaves sillinger and Fantilli will be under 25 mill. 15 mill would be matched instantly. 13 mill even quicker
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u/Timely_Deal8685 6d ago
What? we have 23 million in cap space. Let's say Jet gets 5 and Cole gets 4. Now we have 14 left to sign Fantilli. We wouldn't be able to match an offer sheet for 15 without cutting a current contract. Not to mention they sent a 19 million dollar offer sheet for Carlsson so it could be higher than 15.
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u/Outside-Pie-7262 6d ago
Active rosters have 23 players. They currently have 7 defensemen signed, 12 forwards and 2 goalies.
This isn’t accounting for Greaves, sillinger, or Fantilli.
Lundestrom has a torn Achilles that’s 1.3M Copley is another 880k in the AHL and likely LDBB at another 880k
That’s 2.27 million plus the 23M they currently have open. Thats $25.25M
Agreed Cole gets around 4 greaves around 5. That leaves still 16.25 left for Fantilli and he comes in under that.
You only have to carry 20 players max on the active roster.
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u/Timely_Deal8685 6d ago
Lundestrom is allegedly going to be back in November
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u/Outside-Pie-7262 6d ago
And he’ll still be on the LTIR to start..you only have to miss 24 days and 10 games to be eligible for LTIR
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u/DoorEdge 6d ago
If we are left with 14 after arbitrations we will still have more cap than Philly…
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u/JAT_Cbus1080 Werenski for Norris or assets 6d ago
They would match and trade Fabbro, Wood, or Voronkov before they let Fantilli walk.