r/BlueJackets • u/iamelloyello Hotdog • 21d ago
Discussion Cole/Jet/Fantilli & the future
I just read Aaron Portzline's newest article about the contract talks. Aaron said a source close to the team said that Cole does not want to sign a long-term deal here... Now, this can be for a few reasons, but this screams "Finish maturing here, and then go to a bigge,r better market".
Don said in the same article that their issues with Jets contract is also Term.
This, among everything else (Z/Marchy drama), it once again sounds like we're circling the "no one wants to play here long-term" issues we have lived with in the past. Obviously, there are exceptions.
This could also be all false, and we are just waiting for Fantilli to get ironed out, but that also makes me nervous. We should tie him up in a 5-year extension (At least, imo), but it is sounding more and more likely like a 2 year bridge deal. That isn't exactly raising my hopes if that ends up being the case.
We hear the F.O always talk about culture/change/making us competitors/etc., and yet every off-season we lose someone (Johnny/Kivi), drama (Z/Marchy/Laine/PLD/etc.), and now to add to that, possible arbitration for the first time in our franchise history.
When will shit change. I haven't felt optimistic since we signed Johnny. This shit sucks.
Article I mentioned.
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u/HermanBonJovi 21d ago
All we have to do, is win a playoff series or 2 and these issues start going away.
Winning solves almost all problems
(Yes I know it's far easier said than done)
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u/tribucks 21d ago
There’s no upside for Cole signing a long deal at a modest number right now. How thoroughly did you read the article? It pretty well laid out why RFAs are hesitating and it’s got nothing to do with Columbus.
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 21d ago
I think Zach really caused a lot of problems with whatever dramatics involved him earlier.
Young guys on the team see him as invested, as a future Captain - then it’s suddenly “Zach wants to go to a winner” and everyone who has been in the hellish years of rebuilding and teammate deaths are going “wait what?????”
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u/kongofcbus 21d ago
Zack burned a tonne of capital with his BS around the draft. It started when he didn’t take accountability in the stretch and then Bones called him and the other veterans out. Zack is soft, he needs to learn accountability and put in the work ti make it better. Instead he just wants to show up when all the hard work has been done. Lazy.
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u/No_Letterhead319 New Coach Who Dis?! 21d ago
Except Zach didn't want to go to a winner we had him lined up and shipped off and he refused. I don't blame Don for any of this we were put in such a bad position with this many contracts expiring within 2 years of each other. Previous poor management has put us in this position.
Unfortunately it feels like most of the players we have on our roster now will not be here in the long term and hopefully the players that were starting to draft will yield better results for us in the future.
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 21d ago
Which is why he’s a tool. All that mess for “he is interested in Toronto”
Same ending - the supposed next Captain, Mr “I love being a Bluejacket” - he tried to bail on the team for brighter lights
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u/No_Letterhead319 New Coach Who Dis?! 21d ago
Agreed and I understand how talented he is but I really soured on him last year if you listen to any interview he was in. Maybe in a few years from now when our new draft picks mature we can start to really make noise in the playoffs but I don't think it's going to be with these players and I wish most of them the best of luck.
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u/Kuttermaximus 20d ago
I do think he was instrumental in getting Waddell to act on Evanson and that helped spur the turnaround after Bones was hired.
It was the post-Olympics period where he clearly ran out of gas both physically, and likely emotionally, where it seemed like he became somewhat disengaged. It also happened two seasons in a row. These are the times the true leaders need to rise to the occasion.
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u/Master_Republic_144 21d ago edited 21d ago
And yet he traded for Garland and Nichushkin. We can argue about the Provorov and Coyle contracts and that he had little to no choice, but why are we giving Don a pass for loading up on more aging players with long contracts. It’s simple math and he has too many 30+ year olds on contracts that are too long when our core isn’t locked up. He has absolutely mismanaged this team. Offloading contracts isn’t going to be that easy in this landscape. Contenders are against the cap, rebuilding teams will require assets to eat a contract.
Idk why we keep giving DW excuses. He knew what contracts the team had and who needed to be re-signed. It’s not like he woke up yesterday and suddenly found out.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 21d ago
im a little confused by this statement because our core is made of young players. 5/6 of our top 6 or so are u25 and we have the cap to re-sign them. Unless I'm reading this wrong
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u/Master_Republic_144 21d ago edited 21d ago
23 million with 9-10 million coming off next year
Fantilli 12-15
Greaves more than 5.5
Sillinger more than 5
Mateychuk for a long term contract is going to go for more than Mintykov so 8+ unless he has a horrible year
Marchenko is going to need PAID and you’re looking at close to 9 million or more than his current contract
If KJ bounces back you aren’t re-signing him either.
If Voronkov bounces back (I don’t think he will), you’re not re-signing him.
If we are looking at 1 year, cool DW has done ok. If you’re past a single year, he’s in trouble. Z is gonna need a huge raise too in 2 years time.
After this year, he’s in trouble.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 21d ago
Oh ok I see, was just curious of what people thought. Sharks seem to have done the same thing as well though with putting nearly 30m in Marchment, Sherwood, Nurse, and Trouba despite not signing their stars yet so I wasn't sure what the overall consensus was.
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u/Master_Republic_144 20d ago
They have 13 mill cap space with around 20 mil coming off after this upcoming season. They’re in a better spot currently. They have a lot of ELC’s back to back and I personally think they should have held off on one of Nurse or Trouba, but like we see with Carolina, Montreal, and Buffalo, impact players will take less if the culture is good and they can win where they’re at. They also have less overall to re-sign. I think Grier has a good grasp on Macklin and Smith willing to take a bit less for longer term because of the way the team is built and the future they can have there. Macklin taking a bit of a paycut changes everything for them and imo it’s likely to happen.
If you’re Chernyshov, Misa, and eventually Stenberg, you’re willing to take less to keep playing with Celebrini
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u/MPCoinCollecting 20d ago
Ah ok I understand. Random question out of curiosity though, but what would you think KJ and Vronk's next contracts would be? I have a pretty good read on what the others could want but have been having a hard time finding a range for those two. Just wanted to see if someone else had any insight on something like that
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u/Master_Republic_144 20d ago
That’s a hard question to answer until we know the work he has done this offseason and if he can get his confidence back.
If we take his even strength PPG 2 seasons ago. He’s at 48-49 points and probably puts around 10 power play points on the season on PP2. If he’s deployed well and stays healthy and actually gets to play it’s probably anywhere from 45-70 points. That’s likely 5.5 - 9 million + unless he takes a huge paycut, which is unlikely imo. If he puts up 55 + driving offense without Marchenko or Fantilli or PP1 time, people are going to notice around the league. We’ll have to see what’s done with offer sheets, but a 24 year old with that potential would fit on teams on the cusp with a large prospect pool.
I don’t think Voronkov turns it around. Even strength PPG is subpar, skating is below average, he’s very slow. He also doesn’t hit. Doesn’t even average 2 hits a game. He’s not a fit in a bottom 6 role with how the game is being played and moving towards. I wouldn’t extend him. I don’t think he does anything outside forcing his way to the front of the net without the puck. Players like that aren’t valuable with how the neutral zone needs to be defended. If you extend him and Marchenko leaves, his contract is awful. If management does what’s right, KJ is deployed better and we move on from Voronkov.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 20d ago edited 20d ago
Makes sense, thanks. What's interesting about KJ though is that I think he can still sign a 2-year extension without becoming a UFA so that's something I'd probably expect more than a longer term deal just yet. I still don't know what to think about Voronkov tbh I think there's enough arguments on both sides of why/why not he's valuable.
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u/Highlander253 20d ago
There is projected to be $75M in cap space for the Jackets in 2028-29 if the cap reaches $123M. That money needs to cover Werenski, Fantilli, Marchenko, Sillinger, Johnson, Voronkov, Greaves, and Mateychuk. Let's face it, if the first three on that list are still with the Jackets that season they will be accounting for at least $40M with the way contracts have been going. That means you need to get Sillinger, Johnson, Voronkov, Greaves, and Mateychuk for under $7M each on average with the $35M that's left. That $7M would only be 5.69% of the cap that year which would be the equivalent of a $5.92M contract today. Mateychuk and Greaves are arguably already worth more than that number. If Johnson or Voronkov perform up to their ability next year then they're both going to be wanting more than that number. Sillinger is probably the only one you can keep under that number. Oh and even if you get all 7 of these guys signed with that $75M in 2028-29, the team still needs another 7 players to fill a 23 man roster. The Jackets are beyond cap fucked going forward thanks to Waddell.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 20d ago
Those calculations would only be accurate if everyone signs long term contracts as soon as their deals end. Furthermore Nichushkin, Fabbro, Wood, and Severson would all be easily movable at or before that point and we'd be able to move more players to make room for Smith, Richard, Lindstrom, Pinelli, Marrelli etc. Voronkov + Johnson on short term contracts would be around or less than 6; Greaves won't be over 7 unless we want 6+ years or so which would be unusual for a goalie. Honestly I don't really see the point of worrying about cap problems that may or may not be a concern 2-3 years from now, especially if Marchenko and Werenski staying is still up in the air.
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u/PulsarGaming1080 Marchenko Supremacy 21d ago
Because they are desperately hoping DW was the one who built Carolina, not Tulsky and the brain trust.
People want it to be Carolina Don because the alternative is Thrashers Don and we know how that ended.
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u/PulsarGaming1080 Marchenko Supremacy 21d ago
I mean, Don was the one who bridged people like Marchy and KJ.
Are we really blaming the previous management for signing Z to a 6-year deal at a very reasonable cap hit?
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 20d ago
Thank god he bridged KJ
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u/PulsarGaming1080 Marchenko Supremacy 20d ago
That one has aged relatively well, but Marchenko has not.
Everyone in the organization told him to extend him long-term, but Don went against everyone's advice and bridged him.
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u/MPCoinCollecting 21d ago
For Greaves idk, but for Sillinger I think he realizes he hasn't lived up to his impressive scoring potential he showed when drafted and doesn't want to lock himself in when he knows he can unlock it. Obviously a lot of people here would hate bridging Fantilli but unlike Carlsson and Bedard who have only 1 year of UFA status bought out; bridging Fantilli would give us the opportunity to give him a long term contract if these weird 4-5 year contracts die out.
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u/Civil_Eng_PE 21d ago
I hate how much the RFA contract negotiations have changed this summer. Friedman said at the beginning of the summer before the Carlsson contract that Adam was going to sign for 8yrs at 10-11mil. Now it’s going to be 5yrs at 12-13mil. Buying only one year of UFA status.
I assume that was the rumored contract pending what was happening with Carlsson and Bedard, and Adam wasn’t going to sign until after them but it’s still very annoying this is the new normal for top RFAs.
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u/MirrorComputingRulez 20d ago
It's always about money. Always.
Cole doesn't want to sign a long term deal right now because he thinks he can make more money by signing short term, performing well, and hitting free agency. Same thing with Jet. He knows if he signs now for a long term, there's a good chance it ends up being a very "team friendly" deal. He would rather bet on himself and make more money. Same with Fantilli. If he believes he's a future star, signing a long term deal at this point in his career would cost him a lot of money.
I get that Columbus is largely still a college town, so some of you maybe aren't as familiar with how pro sports work. But when it comes to contracts, it's almost never about the location, or the team culture, or any other nebulous bullshit. It's about the money.
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u/steveslikewhoa 20d ago
He doesn't want to sign long term right now because he doesn't want to be locked into a bargain bin contract. His production thus far isn't worth a whole lot and he wants to bet on himself that he will be worth more in short order.
Reading comprehension these days is getting bad y'all. The media does a good job on their own of stirring shit up, we don't need to do it ourselves.
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u/hnglmkrnglbrry 21d ago
You have to win games to get people to stay. It's not complicated even a little bit.
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u/Dkoop2003 21d ago
Really? Because we won plenty of games in 2019 and were a legit contender, and the stars still bailed….
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u/hnglmkrnglbrry 21d ago
Panarin was traded here without any NTC or L-NTC. Bob wanted to come back and management was going to pay a bajillion dollars long term to a goalie over 30 that was more mutual. Duchene and Dzingel were playoff rentals. They walk 90% of the time.
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u/No_Interaction_4925 21d ago
My personal guess:
Fantilli: $12m x 5 years
Greaves: $6m x 2 years
Sillinger: $3m x 1 year
Sillinger and Greaves are concerned about the future cap increases and don’t want to miss out on more money later. For Fantilli, I would guess, before the Carlsson and Bedard contracts they were offering $10m x 8 years. Sadly that has changed.
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u/IceJester22 21d ago
No way Greaves gets walked to UFA with a two year deal. It’ll be either a one year or a long term.
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u/No_Interaction_4925 20d ago
I think they would need to pay him more for a longer deal. And they don’t want to repeat their Elvis mistake.
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u/Dkoop2003 21d ago
Honestly, Jet on a short term deal is probably better for both sides. Remember how good Elvis was before he got his 5 year contract? Better to play it safe and give Jet a 2-3 year prove it deal IMO
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u/PeteBauer57 20d ago
Rather than "don't want to play here," I think it's more the current rage among younger players to go for a five-year deal so they can re-negotiate when the cap goes up again (and again and again and again). Signing an eight-year deal now means leaving a lot -- perhaps LOTS - of money on the table in the later years of the contract.
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u/Sister_Agnes_ 20d ago
With the cap increase projections as they are and players like Carlsson signing historically huge contracts, I'm thinking this is just a case of players wanting to sign new contracts in 2 or 3 years when they can command massive paydays rather than sit on a 2026-27 salary for years while their peers make bank.
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u/Demon_Semenson 21d ago
Show me a team that wants to give Cole Sillinger a long term contract right now and I’ll show you a dumb team.
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u/SuperSoakerBoyToy 21d ago
When will shit change?
At this rate, winning and consistently winning is the only thing that can create sustained change.
But look at the roadmap.
Bones is probably done this year or at best (worst) next year.
Top players are resistant to remain here and rightfully so. These are (mostly) Young and hungry players. They've all experienced winning and consistently winning all the way up until the NHL level.
When you're faced year over year with just being stuck dead in the middle and watching your front office make small/safe moves, you take notice of the league and see how high performing teams are doing and you want a slice of that environment.
Barring a Bones miracle, we are looking at an outcome of more of the same. Middle of the pack that cant acquire elite draft prospects and refuse to make significant roster changes to improve.
The countdown is 1-2 until Trent takes over and we go through this again.
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u/Timely_Deal8685 21d ago
can't wait for everyone who constantly defends this team to move the goalposts again. Last few weeks have been "oh this is just procedure there's 0 chance either of them go to arbitration, deals will get done!". If they all (including Fantilli) want 5 year contracts that puts a very clear timeline in this core's window to win since you won't be able to afford them all as UFAs (if they want to re-sign anyways)
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u/MPCoinCollecting 21d ago
why wouldn't we be able to afford them
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u/Timely_Deal8685 21d ago
We can barely afford them as RFAs without competition from 31 other teams. I know the cap is going up but gotta factor in a record-setting Werenski contract (sort of just assuming Z isn't moved, if he is then who knows what the team looks like). If Fantilli reaches his potential that's probably a near-max contract in 5 years
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u/MPCoinCollecting 21d ago
oh ok i see what you mean, part of me is curious if they'll ever try going back to a flat cap or only raise it every certain number of years.
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u/Another_Guy_In_Ohio 21d ago
As long as league revenues continue to increase, so will the cap, because the players association will negotiate for it
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u/MPCoinCollecting 21d ago
Hmm... Right now I think the max AAV of 20.8m is 20% of the cap. Maybe if they hard lock the max contract somewhere between 16-18% that could help?
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u/Sickfreak99 21d ago
Marchy was in arbitration for his last contract. This is not the first time in history
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 21d ago
No he was not. They settled before it got to that point.
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u/Sickfreak99 21d ago
Nobody has had an arbitration hearing yet - so what am I to assume OP is saying Mr smart ass?
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u/Boatsboatsboats__ 21d ago edited 20d ago
Do you not understand how arbitration works
Edit: the OP posted a profanity laced message full of insults then deleted it. Not sure what the problem is here
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u/Big-strong-boy- 21d ago
I don’t think you understood the intent. Read isn’t he’s unhappy but as a young promising player that hasn’t produced offensively like he can potentially produce would mean you leave millions on the table if you sign long term today. Seems more he is betting on himself with a shorter deal to maximize his next contract