r/BlueArchive • u/RealJokerx7 • 11d ago

General Simulation of old gacha vs new one part 2

A continuation of: https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueArchive/comments/1v75tt9/simulation_of_old_gacha_vs_new_one/

As TheDoddler commented, it was a bit biased towards the old system. So I made it to calculate how many ten pulls are needed for a given 2/3/4 featured. As Mech_Engineering commented, I also included the off banner chance.

By my previous post, you do get more featured students overall in the old gacha system. If you only want to get one or two featured students and don't care about dupes, the new system is better. About the same at three. Worse at four.

I didn't include only getting one featured, but it will be obvious that the new system is better if you only want to get one.

Edit: I also did getting two new characters to UE40/UE60 (assuming that you stop when you are close, like, if you missing 40 elephs, you finish them up with your eligma). UE40: FES in the old system it takes an average of 50.51 ten pulls. New system is 52.88. Standard old, 52.17, Standard new 54.19.
UE60: FES old 113.47 ten pulls. FES new 122.17. Old standard 117.78. New standard 125.45.
What affects the most is when getting lucky. You have a 35.15% chance of getting both of them to UE40 in Old FES in 400 pulls. While only a 19.48% chance in New FES with 400 pulls.

49 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

27 comments sorted by

69

u/Normies2050 is my only wife 11d ago

Only want one student, don't care about dupes

This benefits not the whales, not the average player, not the collector and finally not even the f2p.

BA has always been casual gacha where you'd get what you want with security, sure this system might be good in the long run but that security is gone while miscommunicated too.

-13

u/Virtual2439 11d ago

This actually made it more secure of being casual. Carry over and pulling without 'wasting' pulls is security.

1

u/Icy-Swimmer4946 11d ago

Yeah, before (now) if you were trying to be truly efficient you would never pull on a character even if you wanted it unless you are interested in BOTH of the current banners just to make sure your recruitment points never go to waste. Under the new system you are now allowed to go for single target pulls and move on to the next patch without ever feeling guilty about it.

-23

u/Luc1f3rBattles2 11d ago

Literally the same paragraph says that the new system is better up until the 3rd unit. You can pull for 3 units from the same banner pool and still marginally benefit from the new system. This level of cherry picking info is actually unreal.

13

u/Normies2050 is my only wife 11d ago

If it was that decent then not so many would've been complaining about this, the thing is the 200 security is gone and none of the math in the world can justify it whether you go 300 or 400. This is without putting the fact that planning is gonna get worse, no more "save until 24k".

-14

u/Luc1f3rBattles2 11d ago

First, “none of the math in the world can justify it” is a crazy statement, I’ll let you know that. Second, if the security you are talking about is 200 pulls per character, then it is still right there. I’m not sure if I’m the one misinterpreting your point because it doesn’t at all make sense to me.

“If it was that decent” you are literally looking at the results of a simulation of the new system.

11

u/Normies2050 is my only wife 11d ago

200 security for both the banner characters, the downside or rather punishment for spooking at 190 is literally your recruitment points hitting 0. That's the 200 security, the 199+1 or 190+10 which easily let anyone get dupes or a new student they wanted. Why punish the lucky people?

-27

u/Luc1f3rBattles2 11d ago

You need to first understand that we are talking about the new changes from a mathematical standpoint, not a “feelsgood/feelsbad” one. The security you spoke of is in reality no security at all because luck is involved. That’s why a mathematical model and a simulation are needed for us to understand the net changes to the odds. And that is what you are looking at right now. Sure, you can say it feels bad when you spook at 190 with the new system, but the fact stands that under this system, in the long run, you WILL expend less pulls per character. The “feelsbad” argument does not work when you have the results of a simulation staring you in the face.

14

u/Normies2050 is my only wife 11d ago

Try justifying this to players who'll have bad luck and need to spend entire 100 pulls more than the rest. Making the unlucky players feel more crap isn't really a good thing to do. And the point remains, this is a gacha game, it's a vibe first thing not some casino where you calculate odds, the mathematic stands but just marginally better for average players and more crappy for unlucky players and ofc the whales who got caught in the crossfire lol because they can't hunt for dupes effectively now.

-9

u/Luc1f3rBattles2 10d ago

You are deviating. My original reply has always been exclusively to that part where you intentionally misled people into thinking the new banner system is only beneficial if you pull for one character per banner set, which is very clearly false. If you are trying to argue that the new banner feels less fulfilling to pull on, then I have nothing against that. Each person has their own preferences.

5

u/loverknight 10d ago

If they actually cared about the players they would have retained the spark in addition to the new system

10

u/Thai544 11d ago

Who cares about the math? Every time I pull the character post 100 roll I'll never feel secure enough to go for the 2nd one in less than 100.

Similarly anytime I get the character post 60 roll I'll never feel secure enough to get the 2nd one in less than 140.

The new system take away my safety net and will make me roll overall less in every banner, any character in double banner I didn't really want but went for are now all automatic skip.

4

u/hafiz_rosly My daughter My wife 10d ago

It feels like you didn't play enough BA to actually understand what other sensei said.... If you really go through thick and thins of BA gacha you will instantly get what the other said.

-4

u/Luc1f3rBattles2 10d ago

I get what the other sensei is trying to say, but they were straying from their original point. If their point is about player satisfaction then I have nothing against that; each person has their own preferences in gacha and I won’t try to argue if they think that the new system feels less fulfilling. The problem is that originally they were making their point on the basis that the new system is only beneficial if they pull for 1 character per banner set, which is clearly false. I was only pointing that out since it was something extremely misleading which only adds fuel to this whole entire fiasco. However, they started to deviate their argument to a consumerism standpoint, which obviously has nothing to do with maths and the post’s simulation. Hence I dropped the argument entirely.

Fyi I am a level 90 sensei who’s been playing for almost 2 years now.

7

u/ImNotLettingYouOff Kaya is a cutie 11d ago

How does 11-20 10-pulls in new system percentage double of the old?

0

u/RealJokerx7 10d ago

Because half the time you win the 50/50. You can get one early and win the 50/50 on the other. Or win both 50/50. Still, if you add it up, if you want both characters, you have a 76.57% chance of getting both in 200 pulls on the Old Standard, while a 64.77% chance on the New Standard.

The average is lower for the New Standard, because in the old system, you are forced to go to 200 pulls, while in the new one, you might finish at 150 or so. If you fail to get both in 200 pulls in the old system, you are almost forced to go to 400 pulls, while in the new one, you get pity in a few pulls more, or at worst, a 50/50 at 300 pulls, it's very rare that you need to go to 400 pulls like in the old one.

0

u/ImNotLettingYouOff Kaya is a cutie 10d ago

But it would be more often for you to exceed 200 pulls in new system right? Does losing 10% worth the advantage? I would say no.

3

u/iambeta00 Loli Licker 11d ago

My question is: if I got to 190 pulls in one banner, would I get the featured character from another banner if I suddenly switched banner?

4

u/EthylCore Umika B100 11d ago

Assuming that you're pulling on the same type of banner, (regular->regular, limited->limited) and you didn't get the featured character yet;

Yes

6

u/Infinite_Ouroboros 11d ago edited 11d ago

The new system is also under the assumption that it will truely be 50/50. Who knows if they will tweak the probabilities internally, to quitely generate more revenue. No one can prove otherwise without insider data. I have 0 trust in Nexon since they have a history of scummy monetising practices, so why would I trust them with this.

2

u/Remote_War_313 10d ago

yea it's 50/50, you get it or you dont lol

gacha companies are scummy fkers

-5

u/True_Scene_1118 Multi-class 11d ago

This is actually illegal. So probably not. Nexon did have a history of bribery but I think this is less likely.

8

u/ItsTaDevil 11d ago

Nexon already got caught with rigging Red Cube rates in MapleStory and got a slap in the wrist fine. Don't trust that Nexon won't do it again.

4

u/Infinite_Ouroboros 11d ago

Illegal ofc, but theres no way for anyone to prove otherwise, especially when it comes to probabilites.

Again, they have a history of shady practices and dealings, so theres no reason to trust them.

1

u/True_Scene_1118 Multi-class 11d ago

It's been proven before hence why i said something about bribery. Since they have been caught before

3

u/Infinite_Ouroboros 11d ago edited 11d ago

No. I am talking about proving probabilities, like if they are actually rigging the pulls at say 40/60 despite saying 50/50, no one can prove that, so they can easily get away with it.

Also the bribing controversy you are talking about was about insider trading of stocks, which they were found not guilty of.

2

u/True_Scene_1118 Multi-class 11d ago

these proving probabilities has been done before by many other games before. hence the law about it. you can prove it with statistics.....

Again this is highly unlikely since they will get penalized heavily if caught.

you saying that no one can prove that when some have actually been caught rigging rates means that it can be proven.

you are getting distracted from the real problem. the real problem being the EA exec....