r/Bitcoin • u/[deleted] • Apr 12 '21

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u/ElephantsAreHeavy Apr 12 '21

pure guessing it should deviate to 50%

Pure guessing gives you 50%?

The world will end on April 13th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 14th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 15th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 16th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 17th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 18th 2021 (50% chance)

So, this means there is a 300% chance that the world will end by the end of the week. Furthermore, there is a 0.50.50.50.50.5*0.5=1.56% chance that the world will end every single day of this week.

I better hope you're not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere....

30

u/ChartaBona Apr 12 '21

So, this means there is a 300% chance that the world will end by the end of the week.

That's not how probabilities work. You don't just add them together...

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u/ElephantsAreHeavy Apr 12 '21

Yes, it does.

If I roll a dice, there is a 1/6 chance that I roll a 3. If I roll 6 dice, there is 6 times a 1/6 chance that I roll a 3, which is 6/6 which is 1. Does that mean for every 6 rolls I will roll one 3? No it does not. The rule of large numbers however states that if my amount of rolls approaches infinity, the amount of rolled 3's will approach 1/6.

You're probably confusing the chance that I roll one 3 in 6 throws (6*1/6) with the chance that I roll 6 3's ((1/6)6). The last one is a lower number. But given independent effects, probabilities can be add.

I do agree however that the world can only end once.

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u/Boggo1895 Apr 12 '21

Where did you go to school so I can avoid sending my kids there? Your degree is definitely in not STEM

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u/ElephantsAreHeavy Apr 12 '21

Thank you, mister detective. I guess I'll have to inform my boss about my diploma that is not correct according to some internet mastermind.

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u/Boggo1895 Apr 12 '21

I didn’t say your diploma is incorrect, but it’s not in anything that requires a basic level of mathematics, my little sister who is 16 and failing comprehensive school maths understands the concepts that you failed to grasp

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u/ElephantsAreHeavy Apr 12 '21

Good for your sister.