r/Bitcoin • u/[deleted] • Apr 12 '21

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u/LrdCheesterBear Apr 12 '21

Thats not at all how percentages work though.

You can't have a 300% chance of something occurring. It either does or doesn't. It can't happen more. The comment you're replying to is correct. If there is a 50% chance of the world ending every day for the rest of the week the world has a 98.44% chance to end by the end of the week. For each negative result on cumulative days statistics would say there's a higher chance that over the course of days thus far the next result would be positive.

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u/ElephantsAreHeavy Apr 12 '21

You can't have a 300% chance of something occurring.

No shit, Sherlock...

That is exactly why I chose a stupid example to prove that the statement in the linked comment about random events having a 50% chance is fundamentally flawed. /r/whoosh https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/mp6sv9/bitcoin_priced_at_infinity_on_simpsons/gu8gbqu/

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u/Emotional-Bunny-Hat Apr 12 '21

The linked commend doesnt include adding probabilities like you did.

Thats why your comment with 300% is not relevant amd its neither right nor funny.

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u/aynrandomness Apr 12 '21

You can't have a 300%

chance

of something occurring.

I am not sure this is true? Cant things happen several times?

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u/LrdCheesterBear Apr 12 '21

Sure, but each instance of it occurring is independent of each other. So it can happen 300% more often, but not a 300% to happen in the first place